A Roller Coaster Ride: Reviewing the Patriots Draft

May 30, 2019May 30, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots Adrian Clayborn, ASJ, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Ben Watson, Bill Belichick, Byron Cowart, Chandler Jones, Chase Winovich, Damien Harris, DeMaryius Thomas, DT, Greedy Williams, Gronk, Hjalte Froholdt, Irv Smith Jr., Isaiah Wynn, Jake Bailey, Jamie Collins, Jarrett Stidham, Joejuan Williams, Julian Edelman, Ken Webster, Minitron, N'Keal Harry, New England, New England Patriots, NFL, Patriots, Pats, Phillip Dorsett, Rob Gronkowski, Rob Ninkovich, Ryan Allen, Sony Michel, TB12, Tom Brady, Wino, Yodny Cajuste

Welcome to my in-depth draft review for the New England Patriots. I have already begun writing draft grades for each team (organized by division), but I figured I’d go more in depth for my favorite team. Plus, I was able to submit this as a critical review for English class.

Read below for my draft grades for the Pats alongside my review.

In addition, I had the chance to catch up with Bob Socci about New England’s draft:

Now, let’s jump right in:

New England Patriots

Overall Grade: B

Draft Report Card:

Screenshot 2019-05-30 at 11.23.01 PM.png

Analysis:

Coming off a Super Bowl victory, the Patriots should remain elite in 2019. However, with tight end Rob Gronkowski hanging up his cleats and multiple receivers leaving through free agency, the Patriots still had a few tasks to accomplish coming into the NFL Draft.

First of all, they needed to find quarterback Tom Brady some receivers. Going into this draft, Julian Edelman was the only capable pass-catcher on the roster that Brady already has a strong rapport with. Their depth behind Edelman was limited to Demaryius Thomas (coming off torn achilles) and Phillip Dorsett (has yet to prove himself dependable). They also added Austin Seferian-Jenkins, a veteran tight end who was signed to help fill the hole Gronk left behind. But ASJ is no more than a temporary solution. He has been terribly inconsistent throughout his career, and after playing 5 years on 3 different teams, he has never reached 400 receiving yards or 5 TDs in a season. The Pats will eventually need to find another option there.

Second, they needed to fill some of their other positional needs. They lack defensive line depth and are in desperate need of an elite pass rusher. They brought Adrian Clayborn on board for 2018, but he didn’t consistently produce. They haven’t really had a consistent one since DEs Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich left a few years ago. The team could also use help at linebacker and in the o-line. Lastly, Brady’s not retiring anytime soon unless his stats suddenly decline. But they still need time to start planning for the post-Brady era.

I feel the team worked towards achieving all of these objectives, but still could have done more to achieve them.

There were rumors that New England would consider trading up to draft an elite tight end. Instead, they opted to wait on a tight end and draft WR N’Keal Harry in Round 1. At #32, Harry was one of their best options, and he fills a need. Once he gets into a rhythm with Brady, expect to see him starting and producing across from Edelman, so this was one of their better picks in the draft.

I wasn’t a huge fan of their 2nd round trade up for cornerback Joejuan Williams though. Round 2 is a bit early for Williams; the Pats had bigger needs at #45. For example, they could have taken Alabama tight end Irv Smith Jr. But if they were going to trade up for a cornerback, it should have been LSU’s Greedy Williams. He ended up going to the Browns at #46. He may be a flawed prospect, as he’s not a very physical player and he opted out of visiting with teams prior to the draft. But he has insane potential and refuses to leave receivers open.

The Pats redeemed themselves in the 3rd round. After trading their later 2nd round pick, they managed to snag edge rusher Chase Winovich early in Round 3. At the age of 24, Winovich is an older rookie, but he should still bring the energy to the locker room that Gronk left behind and make an instant impact in the pass rush where Ninkovich previously thrived. This was the perfect choice for the Pats.

In this round, they also snagged a running back, Damien Harris and a tackle, Yodny Cajuste. Harris is one of the better RB prospects in this draft, and he was a steal at #87. He has played in committees, but it’s hard to get a lot of opportunities in New England’s four-man backfield, something established in 2017. As long as Michel is healthy, I’m not so sure they needed a fourth man. But he’s still a decent investment in my eyes.

Cajuste was one of the best tackles on the board and fills a need for the Pats, so I liked the pick. Isaiah Wynn has yet to play a regular season game after losing his rookie year to an ACL tear, so the left tackle job is anyone’s for taking.

Though it received mixed reviews overall, one of my favorite picks in this draft was the selection of Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham in Round 4. Stidham may have struggled at Auburn, but he wasn’t exactly a perfect fit for Auburn’s system, and I trust that he’ll fit better with the Pats and is capable of replacing Brady when he retires.

They also took guard Hjalte Froholdt in this round. This was a bit of a reach, but he does help fill the team’s need for o-line depth.

I was a bit disappointed at first when the Pats took DT Byron Cowart in Round 5, when better options were on the board. But since then, I’ve looked further into this pick, and it actually makes sense. It fills a need, and as a former top high school prospect, Cowart has plenty of potential despite underperforming in college.

On the other hand, it’s hard to argue in favor of the selection of punter Jake Bailey. First of all, Bailey is a right footed punter, the first right footed punter on the Pats in a long, long, time. Plus, they already resigned punter Ryan Allen. In baseball, they put right handed batters in a platoon with left handed batters. Would the Pats consider something similar with punters? Regardless, the 5th round was a bit early to draft one.

Their drafted concluded with the addition of cornerback Ken Webster. This pick didn’t make much sense, as they had already added depth at the position by drafting Joejuan Williams. But it’s the 7th round, so I doubt it’ll have that much of an impact in the long run.

Overall I thought this draft class was pretty solid. Some of the decisions they made were a bit confusing, but that was mixed in with some amazing picks, and it’s hard to doubt Bill Belichick. This draft class makes a lot more sense now that the Pats have reunited with TE Ben Watson and LB Jamie Collins in free agency. So if I had to give this draft class a letter grade, it would be somewhere in the B-range.

Stay tuned for more draft grades soon.

The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game

February 3, 2019February 3, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots Adrian Clayborn, Atlanta, Back to their Roots, Bill Belichick, C.J. Anderson, Deatrich Wise Jr., Gronk, iMovie, iMovie Trailer, Jared Goff, Julian Edelman, LA, LA Rams, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Rams, Minitron, New England, New England Patriots, Patriots, Pats, Phillip Dorsett, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rams, Rob Gronkowski, Steelers, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, Super Bowl LIII Preview, Todd Gurley, Tom Brady, X-Factor

Welcome to my 7th and final post in my series of Super Bowl LIII Preview articles. With just hours till game time, I will be giving you guys a final update on injuries among other things before the game begins. In addition, I have included an iMovie trailer to get everyone excited. You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

February 1: Super Bowl LIII Fast Facts and Their Significance

February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 3: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

Part 1: iMovie Trailer: Back to their Roots

Part 2: Final Injury Report

Both teams are pretty much at full health, which will make for an exciting game. RB Todd Gurley may not be 100% after an injury suffered late into the regular season, and DE Deatrich Wise Jr. of the Patriots was hurt in the weeks leading up to the game, but unless Wise is a healthy scratch, both Gurley and Wise are expected to play. I’m hoping DE Adrian Clayborn isn’t an inactive instead of wise. We need some good pass rushers in this game.

Part 3: Final Outlook

I’m pretty confident that the Patriots can win this. But in addition to winning the turnover battle, scoring early, and stopping the run, they’ll need the special teams to step it up. If the Patriots want to win, they need to play complimentary football: good offense, good defense, and good special teams. Though a big game from Edelman or Gronk would be nice, I see WR Phillip Dorsett as an X-factor for us. Some games, he has made next to no impact. In other games, he has been an unsung hero. I saw Dorsett at training camp, and he looked like one of the best receivers there. Apparently, Bill Belichick had wanted to draft this guy in 2015 (he traded for him later on). There’s got to be a reason for that. I have confidence that Dorsett has the potential to make a big impact. Plus, if he does well, he may be rewarded with a return to the Patriots (he is an upcoming free agent).

If the Rams can outrun the Pats, they’ll be in good shape. But they’ll also have to outplay QB Tom Brady, which will require not only Gurley and Anderson but also QB Jared Goff to be at his best. If Goff has a big game, and the Rams defensive line (who I see as their X-factor) is at their best, pressuring Brady and stopping the run, the Rams have a chance. But I still have more confidence in my home team.

This will definitely be close, and it could be another classic, as most Patriots Super Bowls are. But I think this is the year that the Pats finally get their sixth ring and tie the Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins ever.

That’s about all I can say that I haven’t already said. With just about six hours left, food has been purchased. Parties have been planned. Commercials have been made. Now, it’s just time to sit back, relax, and enjoy the game with friends and family, commercials, halftime, and all. Unlike other football games, anyone can enjoy the Super Bowl thanks to the funny ads and the halftime show added in to appeal to all audiences. I hope everyone enjoys the game, and stay tuned for my recap when it all ends. Go Pats!

Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 3, 2019February 3, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots Atlanta, Back to their Roots, Brady-Belichick Era, C.J. Anderson, Chargers, Chiefs, Cooper Kupp, Greatest Show on Turf, Gronk, Jared Goff, Julian Edelman, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, KC, KC Chiefs, LA, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Lombardi Trophy, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, New England, New England Patriots, NFL, Patriots, Pats, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rams, Rob Gronkowski, Steelers, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, Super Bowl LIII Preview, Todd Gurley, Tom Brady

Welcome to my 6th post in my series of Super Bowl LIII Preview articles. My video preview of the game with a transcript is below. How do these two teams match up? Watch the video to find out what I think. You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below. I will be posting preview articles throughout the week as festivities in Atlanta take place.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

February 1: Super Bowl LIII Fast Facts and Their Significance

February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 3: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

Video Preview:

Transcript:

After taking the Rams down in the first Super Bowl of the Brady-Belichick era, the Patriots take them on again in Super Bowl LIII. Coming off an OT thriller over the Chiefs, the Pats should have plenty of motivation for this game after losing the Super Bowl last year. In addition, a win will give the Pats 6 Lombardi trophies and tie the Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins all time by an NFL team. The Rams made it here after an overtime victory of their own that was made possible because of a Rams pass interference no-call, but they’ll look to get revenge on the Pats for derailing the “Greatest Show on Turf” back in 2001. 17 years later, the Pats are the experienced dynasty, and the Rams are once again on the rise. But the Pats took down a high scoring Rams offense back in 2001 and with 2 weeks to prepare, Belichick should have a game plan to shut down the Rams again. Though the Patriots dynasty is headed “Back to their Roots”, there are several factors that make this game different.

The Patriots defense isn’t quite as good as it was back in 2001. So for the Pats to beat the Rams again, they’ll need to play like they did in the first half in KC and stop the Rams running game led by Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. The Patriots defense has struggled to contain big name running backs in recent years, and if they fail to contain Gurley and Anderson, it may prevent them from winning. Winning the turnover battle will also help their case. Both QBs have had interception troubles this year, and both teams are Top 5 in interceptions. The question is, who will throw more? About 80% of the time, teams who win the turnover battle win the game. The Pats will also need to score early as they did against the Chiefs and Chargers. Though they did score their only Super Bowl first quarter points in the Brady-Belichick Era last year, they were outscored in the first quarter. Starting out strong with a TD will prevent that from happening again.

If the Rams want revenge, they will need to put pressure on QB Tom Brady. If they can apply the pressure up the middle, Brady could be limited and interception-prone. The battle in the trenches will be key as New England’s offensive line has been playing well but the Rams defensive line is probably the toughest they’ve faced all year.

QB Jared Goff will need to show that his lack of experience doesn’t matter and avoid interceptions. Gurley and Anderson cannot lead the offense alone, and Goff has not been throwing it as much since WR Cooper Kupp got hurt. Interceptions could significantly impact the game so it will be interesting to see if he forces some throws.

I expect Julian Edelman to have another stellar playoff performance with about 100 receiving yards and a TD. I also won’t be surprised to see Gronk play a big role in what could be his last game.

This will definitely be a close one like all of the Pats Super Bowls but in the end, I believe the Pats win 26-24 making it 3 Super Bowl wins in 5 years.

Stay tuned for a final update before the game including my iMovie Trailer.

Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 2, 2019February 2, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots Aaron Donald, Adrian Clayborn, Albert McClellan, Atlanta, Bryce Hager, C.J. Anderson, Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson, Devin McCourty, Gerald Everett, Greg Zuerlein, Gronk, James White, Jared Goff, Josh Reynolds, Julian Edelman, Kyle Van Noy, LA, LA Rams, Los Angeles, Marcus Peters, New England, New England Patriots, Patrick Chung, Patriots, Pats, Phillip Dorsett, Rams, Rex Burkhead, Rob Gromkowski, Robert Woods, Sony Michel, Stephen Gostkowski, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, Super Bowl LIII Preview, Todd Gurley, Tom Brady, Tyler Higbee

Welcome to my 5th post in my series Super Bowl LIII Preview articles. Now that I’ve looked back at previous stat nuggets that could be significant to the game and established the keys to victory for each team, it’s time to unveil my official Super Bowl LIII prediction. Who will win Super Bowl LIII? Will it be a nail-biter? A blowout? Something in between? What players will have the biggest impact on the game? Keep reading to find out what I think. You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below. I will be posting preview articles throughout the week as festivities in Atlanta take place.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

February 1: Super Bowl LIII Fast Facts and Their Significance

February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 2: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

The Final Pick

Typically, I just predict the score. But it’s the Super Bowl, so I went a little deeper. I simulated the entire game based on my basic score prediction. Below are the final score, scoring summary and stat predictions I came up with.

Though I don’t see QB Tom Brady matching his Super Bowl LII stats, he will outplay QB Jared Goff, tossing 2 TD and no interceptions while Goff throws more picks than TDs. But it’s not the stats that matter for the Pats – it’s winning the game. Expect a close, back and forth match-up, as RB Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson dominate against a weak Pats run defense. But QB Tom Brady will find open men and put up a quality victory in his 9th (yes, that’s a record) Super Bowl.

Projected Stats and Scoring/Turnover Summary

Note: I showed a projected scoring summary for the purpose of highlighting who makes an impact, not to predict the order of events in the game.

Team 1 2 3 4 TOTAL

NE 3 10 10 3 26 LAR 3 7 7 7 24

1st Quarter

Greg Zuerlein 52-yard FG made (3-0 LAR)
Stephen Gostkowski 28-yard FG made (3-3 TIE)

2nd Quarter

Todd Gurley for 2-yard rush TD. Greg Zuerlein PAT made (10-3 LAR)
Tom Brady to Cordarrelle Patterson for 9 yard TD. Stephen Gostkowski PAT made (10-10 TIE)
Stephen Gostkowski 37-yard FG made (13-10 NE)
Jared Goff intercepted by Devin McCourty (13-10 NE)

3rd Quarter

Stephen Gostkowski 51-yard FG made (16-10 NE)
Jared Goff to Robert Woods for 9 yard TD. Greg Zuerlein PAT made (17-16 LAR)
Tom Brady to Julian Edelman for 8 yard TD. Stephen Gostkowski PAT made (23-17 NE)
Jared Goff intercepted by Patrick Chung (23-17 NE)
Stephen Gostkowski 54-yard FG missed (23-17 NE)

4th Quarter

Greg Zuerlein 54-yard FG blocked by Albert McClellan (23-17 NE)
C.J. Anderson for 4-yard rush TD. Greg Zuerlein PAT made (24-23 LAR)
Stephen Gostkowski 36-yard FG made (26-24 NE)

Stat Projections

Passing

Tom Brady: 33/49, 284 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack (My projected Super Bowl MVP)

Rushing

Sony Michel: 17 rush, 64 yards
James White: 10 rush, 47 yards
Rex Burkhead: 4 rush, 9 yards

Receiving

Julian Edelman: 9 receptions, 96 yards, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 8 receptions, 56 yards
Phillip Dorsett: 5 receptions, 53 yards
Chris Hogan: 3 receptions, 31 yards
Cordarrelle Patterson: 3 receptions, 21 yards, 1 TD (Will be Unsung Hero)
James White: 4 receptions, 21 yards
Rex Burkhead: 1 reception, 6 yards

Defense (Best players ONLY)

Adrian Clayborn: 2.5 tackles, 1 sack
Devin McCourty: 6.5 tackles, 1 INT
Kyle Van Noy: 8.0 tackles
Patrick Chung: 4.0 tackles, 1 INT

LAR

Passing

Jared Goff: 23/40, 234 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack

Rushing

Todd Gurley: 22 rushes, 100 yards, 1 TD
C.J. Anderson: 17 rushes, 57 yards, 1 TD

Receiving

Brandin Cooks: 6 receptions, 86 yards
Robert Woods: 7 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD
Josh Reynolds: 3 receptions, 31 yards
Gerald Everett: 3 receptions, 19 yards
Todd Gurley: 3 receptions, 18 yards
Tyler Higbee: 1 reception, 6 yards

Defense (Best players ONLY)

Aaron Donald: 4.5 tackles, 1 sack
Bryce Hager: 8.0 tackles
Marcus Peters: 8.0 tackles

That’s all for my Super Bowl LIII prediction. Stay tuned for a video preview to sum up my takes on the game tomorrow.

Top 5 ‘Football Fast Facts’ That Could be Significant in Super Bowl LIII

February 1, 2019February 3, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots 49ers, Arian Foster, Arizona, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta, C.J. Anderson, Cardinals, Greatest Show on Turf, Gronk, Jared Goff, Julian Edelman, LA, LA Rams, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Rams, New England, New England Patriots, Oakland, Oakland Raiders, Patriots, Pats, Raiders, Rams, Rob Gronkowski, San Fran, San Francisco, San Francisco 49ers, Sony Michel, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, Super Bowl LIII Preview, TB12, Terrell Davis, Todd Gurley, Tom Brady

Welcome to my 4th of several Super Bowl LIII Preview posts. Over the last two days, I went over keys to the game for each team. Today, I will be looking back at previous stat nuggets that could be significant to the game. What stats could be telling about the results of the game? What previous happenings will motivate or burden each team? Keep reading to find out what I think. You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below. I will be posting preview articles throughout the week as festivities in Atlanta take place.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

February 1: Super Bowl LIII Fast Facts and Their Significance

February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 2: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

1. Per NFL.com, Tom Brady is the least sacked QB to start 12+ games in 2018 (21, including playoffs)

You have to give some credit to the Patriots offensive line. Four of the five New England offensive lineman are above their positional average in pass block win rate, and the Pats lead the league in this stat. But you also have to give some credit to Brady himself for playing smart football. He judges the defense well and gets the ball out quickly if he needs to. This should help them maintain a rhythm throughout the game, something a sack could significantly interrupt. But it will also help them win the turnover battle, a key piece to victory. Teams who win the turnover battle tend to win about 4 of every 5 games.

2. The Rams offense is averaging 1.5 more points and 3 more yards per game than the 2001 “Greatest Show on Turf” offense.

From a Pats fan’s perspective, it’s scary to see that the Rams offense is not only matching but outdoing their “Greatest Show on Turf” era offensive numbers. Back then, the Rams were the experienced dynasty and the Pats were a team on the rise. Though the opposite is true now, if Brady outplayed an offense like this in 2001, I have confidence he can do it again 17 years later. You do have to consider that the Pats allowed just 334.5 YPG in 2001 compared to 353.9 YPG in 2018. But that’s not a huge difference. Everyone says that the 2001 Patriots had a pretty good defense, while this year’s defense is not great. But in reality, this year’s defense is around average, and they weren’t that much better in 2001 defensively.

3. QBs Tom Brady and Jared Goff are both Top 10 in interceptions thrown this season.

Something tells me this game will have a good number of turnovers. In addition to the above stat, both these teams have elite secondaries that are 3rd (Rams) and 4th (Patriots) respectively in interceptions. The question is, who will win the turnover battle? As I said, most NFL teams who win the turnover battle go on to win the game. In terms of who wins it, I think it all comes down to the WR-DB match-ups. Compared to New England, the Rams are fairly weak at tight end, and I could see the Pats secondary dominating those match-ups. The Rams have been terrible against tight ends this year, though TE Rob Gronkowski is his own animal. That itself will give the Pats an advantage. Plus, it’s unlikely the Rams are able to contain both Gronk and WR Julian Edelman. If they double up on Gronk, that will allow Edelman to shine.

4. Right now, RB Sony Michel is behind just Terrell Davis and Arian Foster in rush yards/playoff game. Though 2 games is a small sample, what does this say about Michel?

Though Davis is a three time All-Pro first team member, Foster never really established himself as a hall of fame caliber running back and ended up retiring after 8 seasons thanks to an injury-riddled career. But he did have a nice run as an elite RB from 2010-2014. Due to the small sample size, it’s hard to tell how much this means for Sony Michel right now in this game. It’s hard to guarantee a big game for him against a star-studded Rams d-line. But I do believe he has a future as an elite running back and a leader on the Pats, even if injuries or something else limits his career. He did put up an impressive rookie season in the games he played.

5. In 2 regular season games with the Rams, C.J. Anderson rushed for 299 yards. It took Todd Gurley until Week 4 to reach 300 yards on the season.

Anderson was in the right place at the right time. Anderson played the 49ers and Cardinals in the final two regular season games. Sure, Gurley played the Raiders and Cardinals in his first two games, but you also have to consider that Anderson came in late in the season. All the Rams had to do to be in good position for the playoffs was beat their weaker division rivals, but these games mattered more to the Rams than the first two. Gurley did do well against the Raiders, and despite just 42 rushing yards against Arizona, he scored 3 TD. Though it took him longer to approach 300 rushing yards, you could argue that Gurley was as good a running back in LA’s first two games, both easy wins, as Anderson was in the last two, also easy wins. The reason Anderson did so well was because he took advantage of a big opportunity. With Gurley at full health, expect Gurley to lead the backfield, with Anderson playing a significant supporting role. This will make things difficult for the Pats.

At least couple of these stats are a good sign for each team. But in the end, what matters is how these two teams match-up. Who will win Super Bowl LIII? Will it be a nail-biter? A blowout? Something in between? What players will have the biggest impact on the game? Find out what I think in my next article, when I share my score prediction and projected stats for the game.

The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30, 2019February 3, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots Aaron Donald, Atlanta, Brandin Cooks, C.J. Anderson, Cooper Kupp, Drew Brees, Greatest Show on Turf, Jared Goff, LA, LA Rams, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Rams, New England, New England Patriots, New Orleans, New Orleans Saints, NFC Championship, Patriots, Pats, Rams, Robert Woods, Saints, Sean McVay, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, Super Bowl LIII Preview, Todd Gurley

Welcome to my 3rd of several Super Bowl LIII Preview posts. Yesterday, I went over what the Patriots need to do in order to win the game. Today, I will do the same for the Rams. What does LA need to do to win their first Super Bowl in almost 20 years? What could derail them along the way? Keep reading to find out what I think. You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below. I will be posting preview articles throughout the week as festivities in Atlanta take place.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 27 or 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 28 or 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 29 or 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30 or 31: Super Bowl LIII ‘Football Fast Facts’ and Their Significance

January 31 or February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 1 or 2: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 2 or 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

The Case for the Rams

Most of the 2000s and 2010s were pretty dull for the Rams. But in 2018, they arguably put up their best season since the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ Era after hiring Sean McVay, drafting Todd Gurley and Jared Goff, and making some bold moves in the off-season that made it clear the Rams wanted to win now. But in order to win the Super Bowl, they’ll have to beat the Patriots, who they lost to back in 2001. The only difference is: now the Rams are the team on the rise, and the Pats have the experienced dynasty. The question is: how can the Rams do to the Pats what the Pats did to the Rams back in 2001 by pulling a shocking upset?

First of all, QB Jared Goff will need to find open receivers. Gurley and RB C.J. Anderson have combined to make this run game dominant, and they should have no problems running the ball against a New England defense that struggles against big name running backs. But without WR Cooper Kupp, Goff has been throwing less often, partially due to the fact that he has less reliable receivers. His most reliable receivers, WR Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, will likely be limited by a solid Patriots secondary. All of Goff’s receivers will need to step up their game and do their job in order for the Rams to win.

In addition, the front seven will need to put pressure on QB Tom Brady. Led by DT Aaron Donald, the front seven has done alright this season, with 41 sacks during the regular season. But Brady has been sacked just 21 times this season. The Rams defensive front will have to step up its game, get past a strong New England o-line, and pressure him. Who knows, if they’re putting enough pressure on him, maybe Donald or another Rams pass rusher will sack Brady for just the 22nd time this year.

Lastly, Goff will need to avoid interceptions. If Goff isn’t careful, an interception could blow the Rams the game, similar to how QB Drew Brees blew the NFC Championship by throwing an interception after winning the toss in overtime.

If Goff can find open men and throw more touchdowns than interceptions and the defense can effectively pressure and possibly even sack Brady, the Rams will be in good shape. But this game should come down to the wire, and for both teams, this will not be easy by any means. Tomorrow, I will be looking at what previous Super Bowl and 2018 stats could be telling about the result of the game, and stay tuned for Friday when I post my official Super Bowl prediction with projected stats.

The Case For the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 29, 2019February 3, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots Brady-Belichick Dynasty, Brady-Belichick Era, C.J. Anderson, Eagles, Jared Goff, LA, LA Rams, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Rams, New England, New England Patriots, Patriots, Pats, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Eagles, Philly, Rams, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, Super Bowl LIII Preview, Todd Gurley, Tom Brady

Welcome to my 2nd Super Bowl LIII Preview post. Now that I’ve set the stage and taken a first look at the match-up, I will be looking at keys to victory for each team, starting today with the Patriots and continuing tomorrow with the Rams. What does New England need to do to win their third Super Bowl in 5 years? What could derail them along the way? Keep reading to find out what I think. You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below. I will be posting preview articles throughout the week as festivities in Atlanta take place.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 27 or 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 28 or 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 29 or 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30 or 31: Super Bowl LIII Fast Facts and Their Significance

January 31 or February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 1 or 2: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 2 or 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

The Case for the Patriots

The Patriots fell just short in a Super Bowl rematch against the Eagles last year. This year, they face the Rams in a rematch of the first Brady-Belichick Super Bowl. What can they do to prevent the Rams from cracking their code and derailing their hopes for a sixth ring?

Winning the turnover battle will definitely help their case. QBs Tom Brady and Jared Goff have both had issues with interceptions this season, and both teams have some of the best secondaries in the league.

The Pats will also have to stop the run. Todd Gurley is among the league’s best, and the Rams also signed C.J. Anderson to fill in while Gurley was hurt and support Gurley during LA’s playoff run. The Patriots defense has struggled to contain big name running backs in recent years, and if they fail to contain Gurley and Anderson, it may prevent them from winning.

Lastly, the Patriots will need to get out to a lead early on. The Pats don’t typically score much in the first quarters of their Super Bowls, with just 3 points throughout the 1st quarters of 9 Super Bowls during the Brady-Belichick Era. It didn’t hurt them much in their first four Super Bowl wins. But if it weren’t for their miraculous comeback from a 28-3 deficit in Super Bowl LI, they would’ve easily lost after failing to score in the 1st quarter. Last year, they had fallen behind by the end of the 1st quarter despite 3 points, and it came back to bite them, as they ended up losing to the Eagles 41-33. If the Pats can get out to a lead with a first quarter TD, something Brady has never done in a Super Bowl, they will be in much better shape.

If the Patriots take control of the turnover battle, stop Gurley and Anderson, and score a TD early, they should be in good shape to win the game. But what can the Rams do to prevent this from happening? Check back tomorrow for an article about LA’s keys to a victory.

Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 28, 2019February 3, 2019 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots Aaron Donald, Alec Ogletree, Aqib Talib, Bills, Brady-Belichick Dynasty, Brady-Belichick Era, Brandin Cooks, Buffalo, Buffalo Bills, C.J. Anderson, Chargers, Chiefs, Cooper Kupp, Dante Fowler Jr., Dolphins, Drew Brees, Greatest Show on Turf, Jeff Fisher, Jets, John Johnson, Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, KC, KC Chiefs, Kurt Warner, LA, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Lance Kendricks, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Marcus Peters, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Ndamukong Suh, New England, New England Patriots, New Orleans, New Orleans Saints, New York, New York Jets, Nickell Robey-Coleman, NY, NY Jets, Pat Mahomes, Pat Mahomes II, Patrick Mahomes, Patrick Mahomes II, Patriots, Pats, Patty Mahomes, Patty Mahomes II, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rams, Rex Burkhead, Rob Gronkowski, Robert Quinn, Robert Woods, Saints, Sam Shields, Sammy Watkins, Sean McVay, Steelers, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, Super Bowl LIII Preview, Tennessee, Tennessee Titans, Titans, Tom Brady, Tommylee Lewis, Trumaine Johnson, Vikes, Vikings

Welcome to my 1st of several Super Bowl LIII Preview articles. The match-up is set, the teams are in Atlanta for Opening Night, and today I will be looking at how the Patriots and Rams got here and taking a first look at the match-up. What can we expect from this year’s big game? Keep reading to find out what I think. You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below. I will be posting preview articles throughout the week as festivities in Atlanta take place.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 27 or 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 28 or 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 29 or 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30 or 31: Super Bowl LIII Fast Facts and Their Significance

January 31 or February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 1 or 2: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 2 or 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

How They Got Here

Patriots

The Patriots were off to a rough start this season, going 1-2 in their first three games without WR Julian Edelman. However, they brought in WR Josh Gordon to add back WR depth they’d lost in the off-season. Gordon thrived in his first game with the Pats, and when Edelman returned, they made for a dynamic duo that led the offense to dominate.

Though they started 7-2, they lost their third game in Tennessee before the bye as TE Rob Gronkowski sat out an extra game after an injury. After the bye, they did win a couple games, playing the Jets and Vikings. But after that their road struggles continued as they lost in Miami and in Pittsburgh. After 14 games, the Pats were 9-5, and they were at risk of missing out on a first round bye. They had the tiebreaker over the Texans, but the Texans were 10-4 at this point. The Pats needed to win one more game than Houston.

It wasn’t a good sign when WR Josh Gordon was suspended indefinitely once again for marijuana, but the Pats took care of the Bills and Jets easily in New England. They nearly shut out the Jets in Week 17! They did grab hold of the first round bye, but the question was, were these blowouts against the league’s worst a fluke, or were the Pats legitimate Super Bowl contenders?

The fans’ doubts were silenced when the Patriots dominated their Divisional Round match-up, hosting the Chargers. They would head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the AFC title game. This was bound to be a close one, especially because the Patriots lost the last time they had played on the road. They were off to a strong start, but they began to fall behind late in the game.

With two minutes to go, it was 28-24 Chiefs. The Pats had the ball in what was still a one possession game. They marched down the field and Burkhead scored the TD, but they scored a little too fast. They left enough time for the Chiefs to add a field goal to tie it up at 31-31 and force overtime.

After that the Patriots won the toss, and though it was a nail biter with many close calls and 3rd downs, the Pats made their way down the field for the TD, winning the game 37-31! This was Brady’s third OT victory in a postseason game, making him the first player to do so. This was also the first time two playoff games had gone into overtime in one day.

You can read more about the AFC Championship at the link below:

Back to their Roots: Pats Dynasty Continues after OT Thriller

The Patriots are now headed to their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years, as Brady looks to ‘Blitz for Six’ and Gronk looks to potentially end his career with a bang. The best part is, as intriguing as a Brady vs. Drew Brees match-up would be, they’re playing the Los Angeles Rams, taking the Brady-Belichick dynasty back to their roots. Back in 2001, Brady led the Patriots to their first Super Bowl victory over the QB Kurt Warner-led St. Louis (now Los Angeles) Rams. You could also compare that victory to this year’s AFC Championship when Brady and co. took down QB Patrick Mahomes II and an explosive Chiefs offense after coming in as 3 point underdogs.

Rams

The last time the Rams won the NFC was back in 2001, when QB Kurt Warner led an offense known as ‘The Greatest Show on Turf’ to their second Super Bowl in three years. They would face QB Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Though they had won in 1999, they could not get past Brady and Belichick, who won their first championship together and started a legendary dynasty. 17 years later, the Rams will seek revenge.

After Warner left St. Louis, things were ugly for the Rams for much of the 2000s. But in 2015, they began rebuilding, drafting star RB Todd Gurley in 2015, trading up in 2016 to draft the QB of their future: Jared Goff, firing head coach Jeff Fisher, and hiring the young Sean McVay to replace Fisher. To top off their rebuild, they moved back to Los Angeles as they seeked a culture change heading in to the second half of the 2010s.

In 2017, Goff, Gurley, and McVay led the team back to the playoffs with help from a star-studded defense led by DT Aaron Donald. However, as the #3 seed, they lost on Wild Card Weekend. The 2017-18 off-season was a busy one for the Rams. The Rams made it clear they wanted to win now, exchanging WR Sammy Watkins, TE Lance Kendricks, DE Robert Quinn, OLB Alec Ogletree, and CB Trumaine Johnson for WR Brandin Cooks, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Marcus Peters, CB Aqib Talib, and CB Sam Shields. Later in the season, they added RB C.J. Anderson and pass rusher Dante Fowler Jr. as well. They now had one of the best secondaries in the league, Gurley and Anderson made for a dominant RB duo, and WRs Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods broke out, giving Goff a WR trio for most of the season. Kupp has since torn his ACL and ended his season, but the Rams dominated in all aspects for most of the season.

After starting 8-0, the Rams headed to New Orleans, where they lost their first game in a shootout. The Rams lost WR Cooper Kupp the next game despite a win. Without Kupp, they weren’t as dominant, going 4-2. But they took care of business against the Cowboys, winning 30-22. They would travel to New Orleans once again for the NFC Championship.

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They were trailing for most of the game as expected, but they came back to tie it up at 20. The Saints were going for one last drive. When QB Drew Brees threw it to WR Tommylee Lewis, he was hoping for a first down. However, the pass was broken up on a hard hit by CB Nickell Robey-Coleman. I am not alone in my belief that the play by Robey-Coleman was blatant pass interference. But the refs didn’t call it. The Saints made the field goal. But the Rams had time to respond with a field goal of their own.

The game went to overtime, and New Orleans won the toss. But after S John Johnson picked off QB Drew Brees, the Rams drove down the field, kicked another field goal, and won the game, 26-23. Saints fans were heartbroken. But the Rams were ecstatic – they had won the NFC for the first time in 17 years. This was only their third Super Bowl appearance, the other two coming during the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ era.

Championship weekend and the weeks leading up to it were very exciting. But moving on to the Super Bowl, the Rams will take on the Patriots in just 6 days. Who will come out on top? Keep reading to hear my initial take on the match-up.

First Look: Patriots vs. Rams

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This is definitely going to be close. The Pats aren’t coming off a great season by Brady-Belichick standards. They went 11-5 for the first time since 2009, and the first time since their run of seven straight AFC Championships (now eight) began. But the Pats have dominated offensively in each of their last 4 games, and they have motivation going on as QB Tom Brady looks to win his sixth ring and TE Rob Gronkowski looks to potentially end his career with one more. Until this year, Gronk had been spoiled year after year with records of 12-4 or higher. Despite a rough regular season, the Pats will look to make up for it with another Super Bowl victory (which would be Gronk’s third). To get past a difficult Rams defense, they’ll have to use a large variety of plays to try and fake them out. If they are as strong offensively as they have been in the last 4 games, they should be capable of winning this. But the Rams’ D might be the toughest New England has faced since their latest win streak.

Coming off a first round playoff exit and a busy off-season that got fans excited, the Rams went 13-3 and earned the #2 seed in the NFC behind only the New Orleans Saints (who they lost to). After being ‘overthrown’ by Brady-Belichick dynasty in 2001, they will look to dethrone the Pats in their return to the Super Bowl. In order to do so, not only will they need QB Jared Goff and the RB duo of Gurley and Anderson to step it up, they’ll need the entire offense around Goff and Gurley to thrive against a mediocre New England defense.

Who will win Super Bowl LIII? What is the game plan for each team? What Super Bowl and season-long stats will burden, encourage and/or influence each team? Find out this week as I release more articles each day.

Back to their Roots: Pats Dynasty Continues after OT Thriller

January 21, 2019 Andrew Roberts Game Recaps, NFL In Detail, Patriots Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brady-Belichick Dynasty, Brady-Belichick Era, Chiefs, Chris Hogan, Damien Williams, Do Your Job, Dodgers, Drew Brees, Everything We Got, Gronk, James White, Jared Goff, Julian Edelman, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, KC, KC Chiefs, Kurt Warner, LA, LA Dodgers, LA Rams, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Rams, Minitron, New England, New England Patriots, Pat Mahomes, Pat Mahomes II, Patrick Mahomes, Patrick Mahomes II, Patriots, Pats, Patty Mahomes, Patty Mahomes II, Phillip Dorsett, Rams, Red Sox, Reggie Ragland, Rex Burkhead, Rob Gronkowski, Sammy Watkins, Sox, Super Bowl, Super Bowl LIII, TB12, Todd Gurley, Travis Kelce

It was 31-31 in overtime. After winning the toss, the New England Patriots had the ball on 3rd down at the Kansas City 30 yard line. QB Tom Brady had made two straight third down conversions going to WR Julian Edelman, but this time, he looked in the direction of TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk had not been himself for most of the season. But after stating that he would ‘seriously consider’ retirement with the conclusion of the season, he had stepped it up so far in this game, with 5 receptions for 64 yards. He was tightly covered by S Eric Berry, but it didn’t matter. He reached up and caught it, keeping the Patriots’ drive alive with a clean set of downs. After that, Brady handed it off to RB Rex Burkhead three times, and he finished the job. Touchdown. 37-31, Patriots win!

The Patriots are now headed to their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years, as Brady looks to ‘Blitz for Six’ and Gronk looks to potentially end his career with a bang. The best part is, as intriguing as a Brady vs. Drew Brees match-up would be, they’re playing the Los Angeles Rams, taking the Brady-Belichick dynasty back to their roots. Back in 2001, Brady led the Patriots to their first Super Bowl victory over the QB Kurt Warner-led St. Louis (now Los Angeles) Rams. You could also compare that victory to tonight’s when Brady and co. took down QB Patrick Mahomes II and an explosive Chiefs offense after coming in as 3 point underdogs.

The Pats set themselves up for success with a strong start to the game where they showcased complimentary football. The Pats were in no rush in the 1st quarter, so they took their time, running the ball and eating clock on their first scoring drive of the game. It was important to get into a rhythm early on to keep up with the Kansas City, but keeping the ball for 80% of the first quarter works. Their opening drive was the longest playoff opening drive in the history of the Brady-Belichick Patriots. The Pats held Kansas City to under 3 minutes of 1st quarter possession time by sacking Mahomes and shutting down the Chiefs offense quickly. Preventing the Chiefs from developing a rhythm of their own also works. In fact, while the Pats had 100+ total yards after one quarter, the Chiefs had negative yardage.

New England had another drive going that continued into the 2nd quarter, but things went south when Brady threw an end zone pick to LB Reggie Ragland. The Chiefs had just successfully pressured TB12 and taken control of the turnover battle in one measly play. Many people say this was a blatant mistake by Brady, but I saw it as a job well done by an underrated, young Chiefs D. Though the Pats had lost their rhythm after marching down the field, they did shut down the Chiefs easily after the interception, forcing 3 and out. With just about 7 minutes left in the 1st half, the Pats had 155 total yards, and the Chiefs still had just -2.

It took a bit for the Pats to get back into the swing of things after the pick, but on a deep throw to WR Phillip Dorsett, they scored again two drives later. Utilized as a receiver, White led them through majority of the drive, but it was the deep throw to Dorsett that scored the TD for New England. After their defense’s big showing in the first half, the Pats held a 14-0 lead at halftime. The defense had held the Chiefs to just 32 total yards in the half, and this was the first time the Chiefs had been shutout in the first half at home in 51 games

However, the Chiefs figured out New England’s formula in their first drive after halftime, marching down the field in 4 plays for a TD thanks to a huge catch by WR Sammy Watkins and a quality TD by TE Travis Kelce in tight coverage. Preventing big plays is a definitive weakness of the Pats D. The Patriots needed to extend their lead so they didn’t have to press the panic button when Mahomes and co. started dominating. They failed to score another TD in the 3rd quarter, but they did add a field goal to their lead, making it 17-7 Pats. However, Mahomes and RB Damien Williams led the Chiefs on a huge drive to end the 3rd quarter. This one did end in a touchdown, narrowing New England’s lead to just 3 points after a somewhat questionable pass interference call. It had been 14-0 at half, but the Chiefs offense had just taken control of the game, outscoring New England 14-3 in the 3rd quarter.

The Pats tried again to score a TD at the beginning of the 4th quarter, but they couldn’t convert on 4th down. They forced the Chiefs to punt on the next drive, but initially, the refs called the punt muffed by Edelman when the Chiefs picked up the ball. However, the call was overturned after instant replay showed that Edelman never touched it. Edelman ended up costing the Pats the following drive though, as he bobbled a pass, allowing the Chiefs to intercept it and go on to take the lead with a TD the following drive.

The 4th quarter was a back and forth battle with several lead changes. The Pats and Chiefs each scored a touchdown on their next drives, making it 28-24 Chiefs. With two minutes to go, the Pats had the ball in what was still a one possession game. The Pats marched down the field and Burkhead scored the TD, but they scored a little too fast. They left enough time for the Chiefs to add a field goal to tie it up and force overtime. It was 31-31.

After that the Pats won the toss, and though it was a nail biter with many close calls and 3rd downs, the Pats made their way down the field for the TD, winning the game! This was Brady’s third OT victory in a postseason game, making him the first player to do so. This was also the first time two playoff games had gone into overtime in one day.

Despite 2 interceptions, Brady finished 30/46 with 348 passing yards and a TD. Sony Michel rushed for 113 yards and scored two TDs, and Burkhead had two rush TDs of his own. Edelman and Gronk each had 75+ receiving yards, and James White nearly had 50.

Mahomes threw 3 TDs and 0 interceptions as the Chiefs won the turnover battle despite losing, but Mahomes only threw for 295 yards, partly because the Pats had the ball for much longer. Though Watkins had 114 receiving yards, Damien Williams caught 2 TDs as well as rushing in one.

It’s hard to name one MVP for the Pats in this game, because everyone did their job. The important thing is, the Pats will travel to Atlanta to take on QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley, and the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII. In Belichick terms, ‘We’re on to the Super Bowl’. The Red Sox beat the LA Dodgers in the World Series just three months ago. Can Boston teams not only win two championships in a year, but also beat the city of LA twice?

2018 NFL Week 8 Picks & Previews: Could be Exciting Sunday with Many Close Games

October 28, 2018October 28, 2018 Andrew Roberts NFL, Patriots, Picks & Previews Aaron Rodgers, Amari Cooper, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell, Bills, Blake Bortles, Brock Osweiler, Buffalo, Buffalo Bills, C.J. Beathard, Cam Newton, Cameron Brate, CBS Sports, Cooper Kupp, D-Hop, David Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Dolphins, Eagles, Eli Apple, Eli Manning, ESPN, G-Men, Houston, Houston Texans, Jacksonville, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jags, Jaguars, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh Allen, Josh Norman, Josh Rosen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kyle Lauletta, Le'Veon Bell, London, Marshawn Lynch, MatPat, Matt Patricia, Matt Stafford, Matthew Stafford, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Mitch Trubisky, Mitchell Trubisky, New England, New England Patriots, New Orleans, New Orleans Saints, NFL, NFL Picks, O.J. Howard, Odell Beckham Jr., Patriots, Pats, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Eagles, Philly, Picks, Ryan Tannehill, Sacksonville, Saints, Saquon Barkley, T.Y. Hilton, Texans, Tom Brady, Travis Kelce, Vikes, Vikings

Welcome to my NFL Week 8 Picks and Previews. Last week I went 8-6, putting my overall record at 61-44-2 (62-44-2 including Week 8 TNF). I’m hoping for at least 9 or 10 wins this week to get ahead of the ESPN and CBS Sports experts I am trying to compete with. I am ahead of just 1 expert from each website. This week, expect a lot of close, exciting games. Even Vegas is predicting this, as many of their NFL point spreads this week are under 4. But with lots of close games comes lots of surprises. Who will pull a shocking upset? Who will stand strong and win as expected? Read below to find out what I think.

Lock of the Week (MNF)

Stay tuned for a potential video preview closer to the game!

There are not many locks this week, but the Patriots should be able to take down the QB Josh Allen-less Bills with ease. It doesn’t matter if it’s in Buffalo, and it doesn’t matter that it’s Monday Night Football. Expect QB Tom Brady and the Pats to dominate here, taking an early lead and running with it. The Patriots defense isn’t going to go from shaky to shut down in a week, but it should hold a struggling, banged-up Bills offense to 20 or less points. One thing this offense does have on the New England is a strong run game. New England has continued to struggle against strong run games this year. But I don’t expect much else from the Bills offense, and the Pats should end up winning by 10 or more.

Upset of the Week

This would be a shocker given Kansas City’s performance in Denver and Denver’s tendency to perform far better at home. But it’s hard to beat the same team twice, especially when they are riding the momentum of a 45-10 victory including a spectacular defensive game. I understand that it was the Cardinals, but momentum is momentum. Thanks to this momentum, I think Denver’s D will do surprisingly well in stopping Kansas City’s dominant offense. This all-offense Chiefs team will struggle against a Broncos offense that has improved from 2017. TE Travis Kelce will catch Kansas City’s lone TD as the rest of the offense is overwhelmed by the Denver D in an upsetting loss.

The Other Games

TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night)	Expect a low scoring game as the Texans shut down defense overwhelms QB Brock Osweiler and the young Miami pass offense. Expect the Dolphins backfield to struggle as well, with Houston’s defense holding them under 50 yards combined. I don’t see the Texans dominating on offense, but it will be enough thanks to a strong game by WR DeAndre Hopkins and the front seven’s performance.
Sunday, 9:30 AM EST (Posted to Twitter before the game)	I don’t think Jacksonville’s defense will look as sharp as usual in London, especially after 4 Jaguars defenders were arrested last night. But they will improve from the surprising struggles of the last couple weeks. Look for QB Blake Bortles to regroup and rebound after being replaced last week, leading the Jags to a surprising London victory. But Philly should keep it close with strong run defense against the troubled Jags run game.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST	In this battle of two of the league’s rising defenses, don’t expect much from either young QB. QB Mitch Trubisky and his receivers will put up a dud against New York’s amazing secondary. But the Jets offense won’t be looking any better with RB Bilal Powell and most of their best receivers hurt. Chicago’s defense should come up clutch, holding the Jets under 10 and saving Chicago the game.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST	The Browns tied the Steelers in Cleveland, but don’t expect as close a game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers will make up for RB Le’Veon Bell’s continued absence with a dominant day by WRs Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Pittsburgh’s D should also appear surprisingly better, holding the Browns young offense under 20.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST	Look for QB Jameis Winston and his TE duo to lead Tampa to victory against a Bengals defense left with holes after losses in free agency. QB Andy Dalton and his receivers should make this close, but the defensive problems will begin to stab them in the back. The Bucs will win on the road thanks to another big day on offense.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST	Expect a strong game out of QB Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. But the Ravens versatile defense should slow them down significantly. However, Baltimore’s receivers will still struggle to keep up as Newton’s multi-TD game is enough to lead Carolina to victory.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST	I know most people would call me crazy for expecting 34 points out of the Giants. But this is a team that beat the 5-3 Houston Texans. I don’t think the G-Men are really as bad as they seem. Even the GM has given up. But I think the Giants will turn it around and win a few games before the season ends. They have a talented, star-studded offense. All they need is a QB who can manage that. If QB Eli Manning cannot, maybe another QB on the roster is the answer. WR Odell Beckham Jr. will be kept busy against CB Josh Norman, but you can expect strong games out of RB Saquon Barkley and New York’s other offensive weapons. The Redskins will make this close with a clutch offensive performance, but I have them falling just short.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST	Look for Matt Patricia’s Lions to win another one on home turf as they begin to look like legitimate contenders. The Seahawks should be able to overwhelm the Lions D, one of Detroit’s biggest flaws this year. But QB Matthew Stafford’s 3 TD game should be enough for a Lions home victory.
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST	The Colts should make this close with a surprisingly strong offensive performance led by QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton. They will take advantage of a weak, rebuilding Raiders D. But expect Oakland to shine on offense against Indy, who has one of the worst defenses in the league. It doesn’t matter if WR Amari Cooper is here or not. The Raiders will miss Cooper and injured RB Marshawn Lynch, but should still manage to win. If they can beat the Browns in Oakland, they can do the same to Indy.
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST	I was tempted to pick the Packers in an upset as the Rams offense struggles without injured WR Cooper Kupp. But this versatile Rams defense is just too good to allow 20+ points to a Packers offense that lacks WR depth despite an amazing QB in Aaron Rodgers. Defense will win the Rams this game as they remain undefeated.
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST	Arizona’s only win so far this year was in San Francisco. I think they can beat the QB Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers again in Arizona. They will be led by strong games out of young QB Josh Rosen and RB David Johnson. The Niners should look decent on offense and make this close. But I think the Cardinals will hold on on home turf.
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST	I think Minnesota’s offense will be slowed by a young Saints D that just added CB Eli Apple. But the Vikings defense should look even better, holding the Saints under 20 points and to just 1 TD. This shut down defensive performance should lead the Vikes to victory.

That’s all for my picks and previews this week. Stay tuned for more NFL posts soon, including my midseason report next week.

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