Welcome to my 5th post in my series Super Bowl LIII Preview articles.  Now that I’ve looked back at previous stat nuggets that could be significant to the game and established the keys to victory for each team, it’s time to unveil my official Super Bowl LIII prediction.  Who will win Super Bowl LIII?  Will it be a nail-biter?  A blowout?  Something in between?  What players will have the biggest impact on the game?   Keep reading to find out what I think.  You can also check out my entire Super Bowl LIII preview schedule below.  I will be posting preview articles throughout the week as festivities in Atlanta take place.

Super Bowl LIII: Official Boston Sports Mania Preview Schedule

January 28: Super Bowl LIII: How They Got Here

January 29: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

January 30: The Case for the Rams: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game

February 1: Super Bowl LIII Fast Facts and Their Significance

February 1: Super Bowl LIII: Final Prediction, Projected Stats & MVP

February 2: Super Bowl LIII Video Preview

February 3: The Final Countdown: Final Injury Report, Outlook Before the Game (Including iMovie Trailer)

February 3: Enjoy the game and stay tuned for my recap after the game!

The Final Pick

Typically, I just predict the score. But it’s the Super Bowl, so I went a little deeper.  I simulated the entire game based on my basic score prediction.  Below are the final score, scoring summary and stat predictions I came up with.

Though I don’t see QB Tom Brady matching his Super Bowl LII stats, he will outplay QB Jared Goff, tossing 2 TD and no interceptions while Goff throws more picks than TDs.  But it’s not the stats that matter for the Pats – it’s winning the game.  Expect a close, back and forth match-up, as RB Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson dominate against a weak Pats run defense.  But QB Tom Brady will find open men and put up a quality victory in his 9th (yes, that’s a record) Super Bowl.

Projected Stats and Scoring/Turnover Summary

Note: I showed a projected scoring summary for the purpose of highlighting who makes an impact, not to predict the order of events in the game.

Team   1  2  3  4   TOTAL

NE        3 10 10 3  26                                                                                                                            LAR     3  7    7  7   24

1st Quarter

• Greg Zuerlein 52-yard FG made (3-0 LAR)
• Stephen Gostkowski 28-yard FG made (3-3 TIE)

2nd Quarter

• Todd Gurley for 2-yard rush TD.  Greg Zuerlein PAT made (10-3 LAR)
• Tom Brady to Cordarrelle Patterson for 9 yard TD.  Stephen Gostkowski PAT made (10-10 TIE)
• Stephen Gostkowski 37-yard FG made (13-10 NE)
• Jared Goff intercepted by Devin McCourty (13-10 NE)

3rd Quarter

• Stephen Gostkowski 51-yard FG made (16-10 NE)
• Jared Goff to Robert Woods for 9 yard TD.  Greg Zuerlein PAT made (17-16 LAR)
• Tom Brady to Julian Edelman for 8 yard TD.  Stephen Gostkowski PAT made (23-17 NE)
• Jared Goff intercepted by Patrick Chung (23-17 NE)
• Stephen Gostkowski 54-yard FG missed (23-17 NE)

4th Quarter

• Greg Zuerlein 54-yard FG blocked by Albert McClellan (23-17 NE)
• C.J. Anderson for 4-yard rush TD.  Greg Zuerlein PAT made (24-23 LAR)
• Stephen Gostkowski 36-yard FG made (26-24 NE)

Stat Projections

NE

Passing

• Tom Brady: 33/49, 284 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack (My projected Super Bowl MVP)

Rushing

• Sony Michel: 17 rush, 64 yards
• James White: 10 rush, 47 yards
• Rex Burkhead: 4 rush, 9 yards

Receiving

• Julian Edelman: 9 receptions, 96 yards, 1 TD
• Rob Gronkowski: 8 receptions, 56 yards
• Phillip Dorsett: 5 receptions, 53 yards
• Chris Hogan: 3 receptions, 31 yards
• Cordarrelle Patterson: 3 receptions, 21 yards, 1 TD (Will be Unsung Hero)
• James White: 4 receptions, 21 yards
• Rex Burkhead: 1 reception, 6 yards

Defense (Best players ONLY)

• Adrian Clayborn: 2.5 tackles, 1 sack
• Devin McCourty: 6.5 tackles, 1 INT
• Kyle Van Noy: 8.0 tackles
• Patrick Chung: 4.0 tackles, 1 INT

LAR

Passing

• Jared Goff: 23/40, 234 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack

Rushing

• Todd Gurley: 22 rushes, 100 yards, 1 TD
• C.J. Anderson: 17 rushes, 57 yards, 1 TD

Receiving

• Brandin Cooks: 6 receptions, 86 yards
• Robert Woods: 7 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD
• Josh Reynolds: 3 receptions, 31 yards
• Gerald Everett: 3 receptions, 19 yards
• Todd Gurley: 3 receptions, 18 yards
• Tyler Higbee: 1 reception, 6 yards

Defense (Best players ONLY)

• Aaron Donald: 4.5 tackles, 1 sack
• Bryce Hager: 8.0 tackles
• Marcus Peters: 8.0 tackles

That’s all for my Super Bowl LIII prediction.  Stay tuned for a video preview to sum up my takes on the game tomorrow.