Baseball Bits #7: Will Martinez Meet HR Expectations for the Sox?

March 28, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Uncategorized Baseball Bits, Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez

This off-season was pretty quiet for the Red Sox. They did hire a new manager, but besides resigning Mitch Moreland and Eduardo Nunez, the Red Sox did not make a big move until late February. The Red Sox appeared confident in their roster until they signed J.D. Martinez on February 26th. But there was a clear need for a home run hitter, something the Red Sox have lacked since David Ortiz retired. The need grew larger after the Yankees acquired OF Giancarlo Stanton.

But with Martinez on board, the Red Sox may be able to compete with the Yankees in the AL East, a feat that appeared impossible after the Sox lost out on Stanton to their archrivals. This year, the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry is back and better than ever. Despite the fact that the Yankees have the Top 2 home run hitters of 2017 on board, the Red Sox have #3 in Martinez and he can help them compete along with a strong rotation. That’s assuming that J.D. continues to hit dingers with the best of them.

Switching teams, especially to a big baseball city like Boston, adds pressure that can often impact results as it did for David Price. Like I did last year on top pitchers who switched teams to make predictions for Chris Sale, I researched how MLB Top 5 home run hitters perform after changing teams the following season. I only evaluated players traded or signed to start on a new team the season after they were a top 5 HR hitter. This research could provide intel on what to expect for both Giancarlo Stanton and J.D. Martinez. Since Stanton is a little younger than Martinez, could it show that he is more likely to remain elite? Although it is hard to predict the age at which a player will decline, history has shown that for many players, performance begins to decline in their mid to early 30’s.

The Research

The “Baseball Bits”

In the last 100 years, only 33 players have changed teams the year after completing a season as an MLB Top 5 home run hitter
- Only 6 players (18.1%; these guys are highlighted green on the spreadsheet) have remained in the Top 5 in the following season
  - This has not happened since 2003 when Jim Thome did it after going from the Indians to the Phillies
- 15 players (45.5%) remained in the Top 20 but fell out of the Top 5 (these guys are highlighted yellow on the spreadsheet).
  - In total, 21 of the 33 players (63.6%) have remained in the Top 20
- 5 of the 33 players (15.1%) remained in the Top 50 but did not make the Top 20 (these guys are highlighted in orange on the spreadsheet), meaning that 26 of the 33 remained in the Top 50 (78.8%).
Only once before has an MLB Top 5 home run hitter come to the Red Sox (Jimmie Foxx came to the Red Sox in 1936) the year after achieving the feat the year before, He remained in the Top 5 in Year 1 with the Sox. However, this was back in the 1930s when there were less big home run hitters who could surpass him.
Prior to Stanton, the Yankees had acquired two MLB Top 5 home run hitters who achieved the feat the year before on another team. Babe Ruth, who came in 1920 as the Curse of the Bambino began, stayed in 1st place with the Yankees, hitting 25 more dingers than he had when he finished first with the Red Sox in 1919 (he had 115 more at bats in 1920). Alex Rodriguez, who came from the Rangers in 2004, stayed in the Top 20 despite dropping out of the Top 5.
Prior to 1970, big home run hitters were less common, keeping the same guys on top year after year. In addition, switching teams was less common for a superstar back then and the off-season was not anything like what it is now. Of the 9 top 5 home run hitters who switched teams the next year before 1970, 3 remained in the Top 5 but all 9 remained in the Top 20.
Only 4 players have switched teams after a Top 5 home run hitting season more than once. They are:
- Adam Dunn: He remained in the Top 20 the first time he did it, but after heading to the White Sox, he declined, falling out of the Top 100 and hitting just 11 home runs.
- Greg Vaughn: He stayed in the Top 5 after the first time, but after switching teams again the next year, just made the league’s Top 50 in home runs.
- Albert Belle: He did this twice in the span of three years, and he placed between 15th and 30th in each of his first years after. However, it only took one year for him to adjust the first time. After a second time, he declined and decided to retire.
- Rocky Colavito: He did this twice. In his first year after, he stayed in the Top 20 both times, but did not make the Top 5 either time. However, he took just one year to adjust in both cases.

The Verdict

It is hard to come up with a verdict based on this research alone. But based on what I think and the research I have conducted, J.D. Martinez will fail to make the Top 5 again but will hit at least 30-35 home runs and make the Top 20. Some people believe that he could turn out like Jason Bay did for the Sox, but I don’t think that is the case. Based on the research, I think Martinez is a better player (Bay never made the Top 5).

Since 2014, Martinez has been a consistent HR hitter and I find it hard to believe that he will decline too severely after joining the Red Sox. He’s not 35, he’s still just 30 years old. If he does struggle, I think he could easily bounce back in Year 2 or 3. As for Stanton, I think he will stay in the Top 10 if not the Top 5 with at least 40 dingers. He is only 28 and people are talking about him and Aaron Judge as having the potential to become a historic home run hitting duo.

Speaking of rebounding in Year 2 or 3, I think that after a strong Spring Training, David Price could bounce back. He won’t be quite what he used to be but he will at least put up a strong season that will put him back in the conversation when it comes to elite starters. With Opening Day tomorrow, comment with your Red Sox thoughts.

Ranking The Teams 18-13: My Version: The Middle of the Pack

March 26, 2018March 26, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized Arizona, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Braves, Cincinnati, Cincinnati Reds, Cincy, D-Backs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Mets, MLB, New York, New York Mets, Power Rankings, Ranking The Teams, Reds, San Francisco, San Francisco Giants, Seattle, Seattle Mariners

Welcome to Part 3 of my MLB pre-season power rankings. Last time, I covered the teams that will struggle, but haven’t quite hit rock bottom. I talked about what they did in the off-season, what the case for them this season is, and what their strong point is. I also discussed best and worst case scenarios for each team and projected their records and division placements. Today I will do the same for the mediocre teams, but rather than talking about their bright spots, today I will be discussing what direction these teams are headed in. Some of these teams don’t know which way to go, rebuild mode or contention mode. Read below to find out who these six teams are and where they’re headed.

Boston Sports Mania MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

Friday, March 23: Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: Who’s In The Basement?

Saturday, March 24: Ranking The Teams 24-19, My Version: Teams That Will Struggle

Sunday, March 25: Ranking The Teams 18-13, My Version: The Middle of the Pack

Monday, March 26: Ranking The Teams 12-7, My Version: Who Will Contend in 2018?

Tuesday, March 27: Ranking The Teams 6-1, My Version: How The Best of the Best Line Up*

*I will also have my latest Baseball Bits coming sometime next week.

18. Atlanta Braves

Off-Season Review

After a rebuild, the Braves are getting ready for contention, but their off-season was relatively quiet. They did just add OF Peter Bourjos to help fill in until Ronald Acuna is MLB ready. Acuna looks like he is pretty darn close after a strong Spring Training. They could’ve also added someone at third, but decided not to due to the lack of options. They weren’t able to get their hands on Moose, so they were not in the market for a 3B after that. They could be an interesting destination at the deadline for Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, or even Adrian Beltre. They already have made one trade this off-season, acquiring Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Adrian Gonzalez from the Dodgers for Matt Kemp. Only McCarthy is still in Atlanta, and he will help lead a young rotation alongside Julio Teheran.

The Case for the Braves

The future is bright for Atlanta baseball. But the Braves will take another year or two to become an elite playoff contender. Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, and Ozzie Albies will need more time to develop among others. This young team is led by star 1B Freddie Freeman, who I am expecting another strong season out of. They already do have some other veterans who will help make this team better, but younger players on the verge of a breakout make up most of their core. That will help them in coming years, but they won’t be absolutely amazing in 2018.

Where They’re Headed

The Braves won’t be contending in 2018, but expect a playoff run in the next three years for Atlanta. As soon as their young talent breaks through, they will add the finishing touches they need and run for the playoffs. Personally, I see Ronald Acuna as a potential All-Star, so as soon as he comes up, you can expect big things from the Braves.

Best Case Scenario: Acuna, Swanson, and Albies all break out to help lead the team, the rotation filled with a mix of young talent and experience thrives, and the Braves contend for the playoffs right away.

Worst Case Scenario: Acuna turns out to be a bust, as well as some of their other young players. McCarthy, Teheran, and Freeman also begin to decline, and the Braves finish with just over 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 78-84, 3rd in NL East

17. Cincinnati Reds

Off-Season Review

The Reds stayed put for the most part this off-season, as they have a pretty good roster as is. They have a strong lineup that is better than you might think, and their young rotation is bound to improve in coming years. The Reds didn’t even need to resign SS Zack Cozart. Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, and top prospect Nick Senzel will keep the left side of the infield covered. Scooter Gennett can be trusted as a full-time second baseman after his strong 2017 season, and Joey Votto should have another top-notch season. The Reds are all set. Sure, they could’ve added a veteran starter, but they don’t want to rush contention when their younger players aren’t at that level yet.

The Case for the Reds

After a rough patch over the last few seasons, the Reds will begin heading uphill again. After their rebuild, their future is bright, and they will begin to improve in 2018. Their young rotation should begin to improve. It will be led by Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan, and Anthony DeSclafani while Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo, and Robert Stephenson will also contribute. They can improve further when Hunter Greene is ready. The lineup is all set, and if Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, and Jose Peraza live up to their expectations and Votto, Adam Duvall, and Billy Hamilton keep up the good work, the Reds could have one of the strongest lineups in the league soon enough.

Where They’re Headed

The Reds are going nowhere but up. They hit rock bottom over the last couple years, and they are looking good post-rebuild, so now there’s no other direction they could go in. Expect big things in the coming years, but in the meantime, they will be about as good as the Braves are right now.

Best Case Scenario: Votto dominates in 2018, leading a surprisingly strong lineup, the rotation improves fast (and Raisel Iglesias becomes an elite closer) as the Reds finish above .500 and get ready for contention.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is plagued by injuries and their young talent is rushed to the majors and struggles. The lineup also cannot quite live up to its expectations as Cincinnati lingers just above 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 79-83, 4th in NL Central

16. Seattle Mariners

Off-Season Review

As they have been since Jerry Dipoto took over as GM, the Mariners were very active again this off-season. They acquired Marlins 2B Dee Gordon, who will move to center field so Robinson Cano and Gordon can both start. The Mariners needed a veteran influence in the outfield, and brought back Ichiro to do the same. They also signed SP Mike Leake to add to a strong rotation that includes Felix Hernandez and James Paxton. They aren’t clear contenders yet though; they still need to give their younger outfielders more time to develop as well as their pitching staff and a couple other younger players on the team.

The Case for the Mariners

The Mariners aren’t quite playoff material yet, but they have a shot. In the meantime, they will have a decent season as their younger players develop. They need the younger players to step up their game and help carry the load. Mitch Haniger, Guillermo Heredia, and Ryon Healy are good, but they haven’t reached their full potential. The Mariners need to keep their team young if they want to avoid a full rebuild, but if they also want to contend in that process, they’ll need reliable young players.

Where They’re Headed

The hope is that the Mariners can contend, but it all depends on the performance of Seattle’s prospects and the general performance of the Mariners. If Seattle struggles, or their younger players cannot emerge as stars, the Mariners may need to take the rebuild route.

Best Case Scenario: The Mariners’ younger players break out and help lead the team to the playoffs along with the veteran leaders.

Worst Case Scenario: The Mariners struggle, as their older players decline (including King Felix) and their younger players cannot emerge as leaders. Seattle is forced to rebuild.

Projected Finish: 83-79, 3rd in AL West

15. San Francisco Giants

Off-Season Review

The Giants had a terrible season in 2017, but they made up for it with a strong off-season. They acquired outfielder Andrew McCutchen and 3B Evan Longoria to boost the lineup. They signed Austin Jackson to upgrade the outfield too. However, they failed to add too many good starters, which will hold them back despite a great lineup. They did add Derek Holland on a minor league deal though, so he could crack the rotation, especially with Madison Bumgarner injured again.

The Case for the Giants

The Giants will improve in 2018, but in a difficult NL West, it will be tough to be much more than decent. They are lacking rotation depth after the retirement of Matt Cain and the departure of Matt Moore so they will have to find younger pitching talent. That means it will take time for contention. Their lineup is looking better, but they do not have the same talent of some contenders. They have a nice core four in Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Evan Longoria, and Andrew McCutchen, but beyond that, they are no more than decent.

Where They’re Headed

The Giants are headed in an upward direction. Expect vast improvement from their 64-98 season in 2017, worst in the National League. Then they can work towards contention once they find the young pitching talent they need behind their core three of their rotation. They have a nice lineup now that they added Cutch and Longo, but their rotation still has holes, and the lineup could still use work.

Best Case Scenario: The young guns in the rotation are successful early, the lineup returns to dominance after their recent upgrades, and the Giants surprise many by making the playoffs in another successful even year.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation implodes after lacking depth, the lineup also struggles to perform any better than decent, and the Giants cannot get above .500.

Projected Finish: 85-77, 4th in NL West

14. New York Mets

Off-Season Review

The Mets restored their strong, playoff level roster from a couple years back after a rough 2017. They brought OF Jay Bruce back, signed 3B Todd Frazier to take over third in case David Wright cannot rebound from his injury. 1B Adrian Gonzalez was also added to improve the lineup. Lastly, they boosted the rotation depth by adding Jason Vargas to aid an injury prone rotation. Vargas was with the Mets for a year about 10 years ago. The Mets are in much better shape after a strong off-season.

The Case for the Mets

The Mets face tough competition and may not be able to make the playoffs this year. But they are back in contention with Bruce back and Frazier on board. They have set themselves up for long-term success, as David Wright is unlikely to rebound, and it will be tough to depend on Michael Conforto with his health in question. Maybe they can contend for the NL East if the Nationals fail to add back Bryce Harper for 2019. But this year, they will have to compete for a wild-card spot.

Where They’re Headed

The Mets should be able to make the playoffs in the coming years if they cannot make the playoffs in 2018. They have a nice roster full of young talent and veterans who are still elite and can lead this team down the stretch. Will they be able to make the playoffs this year, or will the competition be too much for them?

Best Case Scenario: Frazier, Bruce, and Yoenis Cespedes help lead the Mets back to the playoffs along with a strong rotation that stays healthy.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is plagued by injuries, the lineup is no better than average, and the Mets fail to get above .500.

Projected Finish: 86-76, 2nd in NL East

13. Arizona Diamondbacks

Off-Season Review

The Diamondbacks needed a new closer with Fernando Rodney gone. They did add Brad Boxberger, but is he capable of the closing job? They also added Japanese reliever, Yoshihisa Hirano. They also upgraded their outfield by acquiring Steven Souza Jr. in a 3-way trade and signing Jarrod Dyson. Other than that, their roster is in good shape for contention in 2018. But in a tough division, will they make it?

The Case for the Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks finally cracked the playoffs in 2017, but can they repeat in a very tough division? They have a strong lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, and David Peralta. I also think Jake Lamb could break out. They also have maintained a strong pitching staff, led by starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray. With an underrated roster, they should at least be able to keep up with their division.

Where They’re Headed

The D-Backs are right on the verge of contention. They have a good future full of playoff runs ahead of them. However, I do not think they will make it this year. The Brewers, Rockies, and Cardinals will beat them out in the wild-card race.

Best Case Scenario: Arizona’s young roster thrives, leading the Diamondbacks back to the playoffs with a 2nd place finish in the NL West.

Worst Case Scenario: The lineup struggles to live up to its expectations after off-season upgrades, the rotation begins to decline due to lack of young talent, and the Diamondbacks end up finishing around .500.

Projected Finish: 87-75, 3rd in NL West

That’s all for this article. Stay tuned for Part 4 along with my latest Baseball Bits coming soon.

Ranking The Teams 24-19: My Version: Teams That Will Struggles

March 25, 2018March 25, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Jays, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, MLB, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Power Rankings, Rangers, Ranking The Teams, Rays, Royals, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas, Texas Rangers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays

Welcome to Part 2 of my MLB pre-season power rankings. Last time, I covered the bottom 6 teams. I talked about what they did in the off-season, what the case for them this season is, and what their bright spot is. I also discussed best and worst case scenarios for each team and projected their records and division placements. Today I will do the same for the next 6. Some of these teams at least have a chance to contend, but things do not look great for them. Read below to find out who these six teams are and where they’re headed.

Boston Sports Mania MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

Friday, March 23: Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: Who’s In The Basement?

Saturday, March 24: Ranking The Teams 24-19, My Version: Teams That Will Struggle

Sunday, March 25: Ranking The Teams 18-13, My Version: The Middle of the Pack

Monday, March 26: Ranking The Teams 12-7, My Version: Who Will Contend in 2018?

Tuesday, March 27: Ranking The Teams 6-1, My Version: How The Best of the Best Line Up*

*I will also have my latest Baseball Bits coming sometime next week.

24. Tampa Bay Rays

Off-Season Review

The Rays are headed in a rebuilding direction. I would be shocked to see them contend anytime in the next three years. This off-season, they began their rebuild, trading away SP Jake Odorizzi, star 3B Evan Longoria, DH Corey Dickerson, and OF Steven Souza Jr. They did acquire Denard Span in the Longoria trade to add outfield depth, which will be needed without Dickerson and Souza. They also added veteran slugger and RF Carlos Gomez. They brought in C.J. Cron to replace Corey Dickerson, the one dumb move they made during the off-season.

They could’ve just kept Dickerson or let a prospect take over at DH, but they had to bring in a new DH who was worse than Dickerson. It shouldn’t even be considered rebuilding; Cron is practically the same age as Dickerson. These moves will give key roles to younger players though. 3B Matt Duffy, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, OF Mallex Smith, and SP Jacob Faria are all in line to have a significant role this season.

The Case for the Rays

The Rays have some nice pieces that could’ve led them to contend if they had held on to Odorizzi, Dickerson, and Longoria, but now they’ve made it clear that they’re ready to rebuild. This year, the Rays will need to find younger guys to lead the rotation with Odorizzi gone. They will start with a 4 man rotation but should hope to add a prospect in the #5 slot eventually. Brent Honeywell is out of the picture; he is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. They will also need to find new leaders in the lineup with Evan Longoria gone.

The Strong Point

Tampa Bay made some interesting moves last season that we now know were preparing them for a rebuild, and some of the guys they acquired have major league experience but are still young, and they could serve as mentors for even younger players this season. SS Adeiny Hechavarria, OF Mallex Smith, and 3B Matt Duffy are among these guys. They will help lead a relatively strong Rays lineup. OF Carlos Gomez will also be a leader in this lineup. The rotation still needs plenty of work during this rebuild, but the lineup is in a pretty good position, despite a need for a first baseman/DH alongside C.J. Cron that they failed to fulfill.

Best Case Scenario: The Rays find a pitcher to round out the rotation, and he helps another young Rays rotation dominate the league. The Rays also do well at the plate, leading them just above .500.

Worst Case Scenario: The Rays cannot find a fifth man for their rotation, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Faria struggle from the start, and a Rays 4 man rotation lacking depth falls apart by July. Meanwhile, they cannot get anything better than decent out of the lineup, as guys like Hechavarria, Smith, and Duffy do not break out, and the Rays finish last in the American League.

Projected Finish: 70-92, 5th in AL East

23. Baltimore Orioles

Off-Season Review

I was not so high on Baltimore in the making of my MLB predictions. But they have since finished off their rotation by signing Alex Cobb, who could serve as their ace. Cobb was the last big name starter left on the market. They also resigned Chris Tillman and signed Andrew Cashner in order to at least pursue a respectable rotation after losing many starters to free agency. They were also in talks with teams about Manny Machado, who’s in a contract year, but decided to hold onto him for now. Their roster is looking better than it did before the late off-season moves they are known for. But it’s still nothing more than mediocre.

The Case for the Orioles

The Orioles have to decide what direction they are going in. They have a nice roster but need a little more to contend. That will be decided this season. They will either sell at the deadline after early season disappointment, or they will add a couple key pieces after a decent start and head in an upward direction. The O’s have a good lineup, and their new look rotation could surprise us, but it’s nothing extra special, and the team is getting old. Adam Jones and Chris Davis are past their prime, Manny Machado is in a contract year, and the Orioles lack the young talent to take over. Could it be time to rebuild?

The Strong Point

The Orioles have relied on their lineup over the years, but this year, I think their pitching is their strong point. Their bullpen could still be great if they can get healthy, and the rotation looks much better with Cobb, Cashner, and Tillman on board. Dylan Bundy will also be a factor. Their lineup is getting older and declining, but despite questioning what direction they should be going in, the Orioles have really made some nice upgrades to their pitching staff. But will they pay off?

Best Case Scenario: The O’s new look rotation takes the league by storm, Chris Davis bounces back to lead Baltimore’s lineup, and the Orioles head in an upward direction and contend for a wild-card slot.

Worst Case Scenario: The bullpen is plagued by injuries, the rotation and lineup are no better than average, and the Orioles are forced to enter rebuild mode.

My Prediction: 73-89, 4th in AL East

22. Philadelphia Phillies

Off-Season Review

The Phillies are another team that has improved since my early March MLB predictions. They signed Jake Arrieta to serve as the ace to a young, but improving rotation. They could have added a veteran outfielder to fill in if their younger guys struggle, but the Phillies need to establish their new core post-rebuild. Relying on veterans is not what they want to be doing too much unless they’re 100% ready to contend and want to add a star player, which is not quite the case yet. They did sign 1B Carlos Santana though, moving Rhys Hoskins to the outfield and trading Tommy Joseph.

The Case for the Phillies

The Phillies are getting ready to contend in coming years after a rebuild. Now that they have filled the roster with young talent, it’s time to find out who will lead them. That all depends on who breaks out this year. Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, and Aaron Nola are potential candidates. I do think it is good that they have started to add veterans though because they will need to surround their young talent with elite, experienced players in order to reach the playoffs in coming years.

The Strong Point

The Phillies have a pretty consistent lineup that does not have any major holes, and that really helps in an MLB that can be very streaky. They have a lot of strong players that full out their lineup, but no breakout stars yet, which is what they need. I personally think that by the end of this season, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, or someone else in the Phillies lineup will emerge as a breakout star and carry the team in coming years.

Best Case Scenario: Many of Philly’s young stars breakout, their rotation improves as Jake Arrieta, Jerad Eickhoff, and Aaron Nola make a great trio while Vince Velasquez also makes major contributions, and the Phillies finish 2nd or 3rd in a relatively weak NL East.

Worst Case Scenario: Arrieta and the Phillies rotation bust, the lineup is nothing more than mediocre, and the Phillies don’t get any better, finishing with just below 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 71-91, 4th in NL East

21. Kansas City Royals

Off-Season Review

The Royals were planning to rebuild after losing much of their core to free agency. But they brought back both 3B Mike Moustakas and SS Alcides Escobar in the end. They also signed CF Jon Jay and 1B Lucas Duda to replace Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain. They still aren’t the same team they were a couple years back though. If they were still attempting to contend, they would’ve added another starting pitcher and they would have held on to DH Brandon Moss.

The Case for the Royals

The Royals were planning to rebuild, but I think their decision to keep their lineup pretty much the same implies that guys like Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert might not be MLB ready yet. The Royals need a couple years before they’ll be able to successfully rebuild. But in the meantime, they’re not making any long-term investments, so you shouldn’t expect more than mediocracy from them.

The Strong Point

The Royals have no plans to be legitimate contenders, but their lineup is underrated. I don’t know why people think their lineup is old and washed up. I could see Alcides Escobar bouncing back for a half decent season. Mike Moustakas is still elite. He may be frustrated back in KC, but if he’s not elite, why were other contending teams making such a big push for him? There were other options. Yunel Escobar and J.J. Hardy are still free agents. At this point, they are unlikely to be signed. Moose was picked over those two, who are decent players. Lucas Duda and Jon Jay can hit too, although it’s been a while since they were in their prime.

Best Case Scenario: Escobar and Alex Gordon bounce back for strong seasons, Moose, Duda and Jay do well in the lineup as well as young 2B Whit Merrifield, and the Royals finish just above .500 after strong hitting and decent pitching.

Worst Case Scenario: The Royals lineup collapses, Moose, Gordon, and Escobar want out, and the Royals are forced to rush prospects to the majors in order to prevent the Royals from falling due to a bad decision/unwillingness for change. The prospects then struggle due to needing more time to develop, and the Royals collapse, finishing last in the division, with below 70 wins.

Note: The Royals are one of those teams that will be very hard to predict this season.

Projected Finish: 73-89, 3rd in AL Central

20. Toronto Blue Jays

Off-Season Review

The Blue Jays had a very interesting off-season. It’s almost like the Jays are rebuilding without overhauling, which is a unique way to do things. Rather than trading Josh Donaldson or even Troy Tulowitzki, and completely emptying out all the vets on their roster, they just made a few good decisions that will help them get younger. They let OF Jose Bautista walk, which was good after his 2017 decline, but they brought in OF Randal Grichuk in a trade. Grichuk is a younger option for them who is also a viable starter, so it works out.

They also brought in Curtis Granderson to platoon with younger outfielders like Dalton Pompey. But they’re still holding on to Tulo and Donaldson for another year to give prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time. They also acquired young infielder Yangervis Solarte from San Diego to assist in that job. They signed a couple good relievers as well, just so they could have a full bullpen.

The Case for the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have managed to hold on to a decent MLB ready roster while still rebuilding, and I think it’s a very good idea that will keep them close to contention throughout their rebuild. But it’s nearly impossible to rebuild and contend at the same time, so the Blue Jays won’t be anything more than decent until they are fully rebuilt. This approach will get them there quickly though. It will be like nobody even noticed their rebuild due to their fast execution. The future is bright.

The Strong Point

The lineup in Toronto is nothing more than decent right now, although they have a nice core between Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak. But the rotation is their real strength. They don’t really have an ace, but many of their pitchers could emerge as an ace and are pretty good despite inconsistency. Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ have all had good stretches. They just need to remain healthy and consistent, which is the difficult part.

Best Case Scenario: The mix of youth and experience in the Jays lineup thrives, the rotation takes the league by storm, and the Blue Jays finish as a close third to the Red Sox and Yankees despite missing the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is plagued by inconsistency and injuries and the lineup’s older players struggle, forcing prospects up early. The Blue Jays find themselves in a pickle with both veterans and prospects struggling and finish right around 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 76-86, 3rd in AL East

19. Texas Rangers

Off-Season Review

The Rangers need to make up their mind. Are they rebuilding, or are they contending? They went out and signed Doug Fister, Bartolo Colon, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Jon Niese, and Tim Lincecum to compete for rotation slots but ended up releasing Colon and Niese after they only made the roster older. The rotation will now look something like this, and I still can’t tell you if this will be accurate:

Cole Hamels LHP
Doug Fister LHP
Martin Perez LHP
Matt Moore LHP
Tim Lincecum RHP

I put Lincecum in there over Minor so they could at least have one RHP in the rotation. Jesse Chavez could also occupy that role. But they also declined to sign an outfielder or a 1B/DH, implying that they might consider a rebuild. They did add 3B Trevor Plouffe and 1B Tommy Joseph though. This is a very confusing team. They don’t even know for sure where guys are starting for them. Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo, and Adrian Beltre could all play third, first or DH. The Rangers have gotten younger, but if they want to rebuild, why did they sign five veteran starters, and why did they hold on to their veterans like Adrian Beltre?

The Case for the Rangers

The Rangers are one of the hardest MLB teams to predict this year. They could dominate or be terrible. They have the tools to contend but also face the risk of holding on to the wrong veterans and collapsing. This season is all about choosing a direction. If they do well early, they’ll get what they need at the deadline and make a run. If not, they’ll likely sell Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and other veterans in a rebuilding effort. They did not make it easy for themselves to choose a direction. They could very well end up stuck in the middle if they decline to choose.

The Strong Point

The Rangers still have a lot of power hitters. Big hitters Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus will lead this lineup alongside younger sluggers like Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo. If Beltre and Andrus stay elite, you can still expect a lot of dingers and big hits in Texas. Rougned Odor and Shin-Soo Choo are also strong hitters who are very familiar in Texas.

Best Case Scenario: The new look rotation actually does surprisingly well, the lineup continues to thrive as usual, and the Rangers finish above .500, placing 2nd or 3rd in the AL West.

Worst Case Scenario: The Rangers decline, as the older players on the team struggle, and the Rangers are forced to rebuild.

Projected Finish: 74-88, 4th in AL West

That’s all for Part 2. Stay tuned for Part 3 coming soon. On a side note, I am proud to announce that we have reached the 4 year anniversary of this blog. I have come a long way, writing 534 posts in 4 years. In that time, I have received almost 20000 views and almost 300 followers. I will be posting more about that later today.

Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: Who’s In The Basement?

March 23, 2018March 23, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized A's, Athletics, Austin Meadows, Bucs, Chicago, Chicago White Sox, Corey Dickerson, Detroit, Detroit Tigers, Eric Hosmer, Gregory Polanco, J.T. Realmuto, James Shields, Jose Abreu, Justin Bour, Khris Davis, Marlins, Miami, Miami Marlins, Miguel Cabrera, MLB, MLB Power Rankings, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Padres, Pirates, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Pirates, Power Rankings, Ranking The Teams, San Diego, San Diego Padres, Sox, Starling Marte, Tigers, Victor Martinez, White Sox

Each year since 2014, David Schoenfield has ranked all 30 teams in tiers during the preseason. For the fourth year straight, I am creating my own version. Throughout the week, I will be posting my rankings. However, I started a little late this year due to the MLB’s slow off-season. Today they start with the bottom 6.

Boston Sports Mania MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

Friday, March 23: Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: Who’s In The Basement?

Friday, March 23: Ranking The Teams 24-19, My Version: Teams That Will Struggle

Saturday, March 24: Ranking The Teams 18-13, My Version: The Middle of the Pack

Saturday, March 24: Ranking The Teams 12-7, My Version: Who Will Contend in 2018?

Sunday, March 25: Ranking The Teams 6-1, My Version: How The Best of the Best Line Up*

*I will also have my latest Baseball Bits coming this Sunday or sometime next week.

30. Miami Marlins

Off-Season Review

The Marlins underwent a complete overhaul this off-season. They traded four key pieces from their lineup last year: Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Dee Gordon. Those guys were leaders for the Marlins. They could have gone on to contend with that group, but after no success making the playoffs in recent years, they decided to fully rebuild. Rather than signing a couple pitchers and going for an NL East title, they decided not to sign too many pitchers and to make the series of trades they made. In these trades, they added members of their future core, such as Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, and Magneuris Sierra. They also acquired Starlin Castro to play second and signed a veteran or two including Cameron Maybin to be placeholders in the new look outfield. These trades further advanced teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, and Brewers as well.

The Case for the Marlins

The Marlins have no intention of contending in 2018. This year, expect to see veteran placeholders make up the lineup alongside their more seasoned prospects like J.T. Riddle and Lewis Brinson. In the meantime, the Marlins will be getting their next generation of players ready to play at a big league level. Starlin Castro was only acquired as a veteran mentor, don’t think he’s a sign that the Marlins aren’t ready to rebuild yet. They are in full rebuild mode. But did they rebuild too early? Could they be contending down the stretch rather than sitting in the basement of the NL East, waiting for their prospects to further develop, and carrying around a bunch of older veterans who are past their prime?

The Bright Spot

The Marlins may have overhauled most of their lineup, but they still have a couple strong pieces in catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Justin Bour. Their lineup will remain their strong point in 2018, especially the very core of it. Their rotation needs work. They may have a couple good pitchers, but they need to find guys within their system who can lead the next generation of pitching in Miami. They have plenty of hitting/fielding prospects already making their way towards the majors.

Best Case Scenario: The veterans Miami has signed are consistent and show signs that they still have what it takes to be as successful as they were earlier in their career, and Miami’s prospects get called up quickly and thrive in the majors, leading the Marlins just over 70 wins in Year 1 of a rebuild.

Worst Case Scenario: Miami’s top prospects struggle at the major league level, and their veteran leaders fail to find momentum, as the Marlins lose 100+ games.

Projected Finish: 64-98, 5th in NL East

29. Chicago White Sox

Off-Season Review

As they plan to let a strong group of prospects lead the team in 2018, the White Sox were relatively quiet this off-season. They added Wellington Castillo after several young catchers failed them, and they added a few guys to their bullpen. They also signed Hector Santiago to top off the rotation. But for the most part, they are happy with their young roster. Sure, they could’ve added a veteran leader in the outfield or at third, or even added a new ace, but they can manage with the roster they have, especially if their younger players begin to break out.

The Case for the White Sox

After a rebuild, the White Sox are ready to take steps back towards contention. They will start off slow, but they will improve over the next few years, slowly but surely. Guys like 2B Yoan Moncada, SS Tim Anderson, and CF Adam Engel are hoping to have strong seasons and help lead the team. Meanwhile, guys like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, and Lucas Giolito are looking to make an impact at the big league level. This year will be about finding young leaders to help lead the team in the future alongside veteran 1B Jose Abreu. I could see Giolito and Engel having strong seasons.

The Bright Spot

It’s younger players who are looking to become the new faces of the team. But in the meantime, the White Sox have some strong veteran leaders. Expect Jose Abreu to build upon a strong season. I could also see James Shields bouncing back to lead the pitching staff and become a mentor for young pitchers like Kopech and Giolito. Also, keep an eye out for younger breakout players. Who do you think will emerge as a star on the White Sox in 2018?

Best Case Scenario: Chicago’s strong group of prospects are successful in the majors very quickly and lead the White Sox to a decent year in the AL Central alongside their veteran influences, who have very strong seasons. In this scenario, they would come in 3rd over Kansas City and Detroit.

Worst Case Scenario: Jimenez, Kopech, and others fail to succeed at the major league level, and Abreu and Shields begin to decline quickly as the White Sox crumble.

Projected Finish: 66-96, 5th in AL Central

28. Detroit Tigers

Off-Season Review

The Tigers started off 2017 expecting to contend. But injuries and old age caught up with them, and they ended up trading away their older players and heading into rebuild mode. They still held onto Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Jose Iglesias, and Victor Martinez though. Those four will mentor the younger players taking over, like Jeimer Candelario and Dixon Machado. They could’ve used another veteran infielder, but instead, Candelario and Machado will start full time, and the only major free agent signings by Detroit were signing OF Leonys Martin and SP Mike Fiers, both of which they got done much earlier in the off-season than most of the free agent signings occurred. Meanwhile, veterans Jordan Zimmermann, Francisco Liriano, and Mike Fiers, as well as younger starters Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris, will headline the new look rotation.

The Case for the Tigers

The Tigers don’t have any blatant holes on their roster, but their roster lacks upside. They have a lot of average players, but no clear superstar. Even Miguel Cabrera’s numbers have taken a dip from dominant to average. The question is, can Miggy rebound and lead this young team in 2018? The Tigers will need someone to step it up and emerge as a true leader. They have a good amount of veteran mentors, but nobody who can carry the team. Who will break out and emerge as a star for them?

The Bright Spot

Like I said, it’s hard to name one leader or bright spot on this mediocre team, and mediocre teams with a lack of a leader and few experienced players are known to struggle. I see Miggy and Victor Martinez rebounding for strong seasons and emerging as leaders. Once the Tigers can find themselves a leader, they could be going places, as the younger players follow in their footsteps and help bring the Tigers back to the playoffs a couple years down the road.

Best Case Scenario: Detroit’s young roster gets off to a hot start, the well-balanced rotation thrives and Miguel Cabrera bounces back to lead the team as the Tigers jump right back into third place in Year 2 of a rebuild.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation cannot find an identity, Detroit’s younger players struggle and disappoint, Miggy continues to struggle, and nobody else steps up to lead as they end up in the American League basement.

Projected Finish: 69-93, 4th in AL Central

27. Pittsburgh Pirates

Off-Season Review

In 2016 and 2017, the Pirates found themselves stuck in the middle. They had a strong, but declining lineup and a rotation that was beginning to collapse. This off-season, they made a definitive choice to begin a rebuild, and they started by trading Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, their best hitter and their best pitcher. After that, their off-season was very quiet, and Spring Training will be focused on getting their young prospects ready to play every day in the MLB. They got some of those prospects as a return from the Astros (who acquired Cole) and the Giants (who acquired Cutch). That group includes RHP Kyle Crick, RHP Joe Musgrove, and 3B Colin Moran.

The Case for the Pirates

The Pirates have made it clear what direction they’re headed in, and they will not contend in 2018. They have some nice pieces that will help them alongside their top prospects in the coming years, but right now, the veterans are just there to keep the Pirates playing at a major league level (at the very least). In the meantime, the Pirates will focus on getting their prospects ready. Expect to see a lot of Austin Meadows, Colin Moran, Jordan Luplow, Josh Bell, Bryce Brentz and Max Moroff in the Pirates lineup. All those guys are potential leaders for the next generation in Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, their biggest need is a successful young pitcher. They have yet to find one, but as soon as they do, expect to see him up in the majors getting a chance to prove himself. The Pirates still have a decent lineup, so if they can get a few young hitters ready and fix up their rotation, expect to see them back in the playoffs in a few years.

The Bright Spot

The Pirates still have a great group of guys in the outfield. Not only do the Pirates have some good defense out there, but these guys will continue to lead the Pirates lineup. Despite trading away Cutch, they have brought in Corey Dickerson, another power hitting outfielder to replace him. They also have plenty of prospects who will see time back there including top prospect Austin Meadows. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco will also continue to serve as leaders on this team. Their rotation may need work, and the infield has yet to find their starting mix, but this Pirates outfield is all set.

Best Case Scenario: Pittsburgh’s prospects crack the majors and make an impact quickly, Polanco and Marte continue to serve as leaders and mentors, and the young rotation looks a little better as the Pirates get right above the 70-win line.

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries and struggles plague the Pirates rotation, Pittsburgh’s veterans decline, and the prospects are forced to lead the team and fail to handle the pressure as Pittsburgh collapses in Year 1 of their rebuild.

Projected Finish: 67-95, 5th in NL Central

26. San Diego Padres

Off-Season Review

Last season I said the Padres were in a horrific rebuild after making a mistake in signing a bunch of veterans past their prime to lead the 2016 team and some of you disagreed, saying that the Padres have talent that will anchor their next generation. Whoever said that is correct because now that the Padres have gotten their top prospects MLB ready, they are ready to take steps back toward contention mode. Manuel Margot and Fernando Tatis Jr. are some of the young guns who can help lead this team, and the Padres have added a couple veterans to further boost the roster.

They may have made the biggest signing of the off-season when they added 1B Eric Hosmer. They also acquired SS Freddy Galvis and 3B Chase Headley (who was here to start his MLB career) after giving up infielder Yangervis Solarte. Wil Myers will also continue to be a veteran mentor as he returns to the outfield. He will allow San Diego’s younger outfielders to platoon, and they will not be pressured to perform like everyday starters.

The Case for the Padres

After a brief rebuild, the Padres are headed back in an upward direction. But legitimate playoff contention will take a year or two. This year, their young roster will continue to develop as their veterans lead the team in an upward direction. Once guys like Carlos Asuaje and 19-year old prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. are ready to contend alongside Hosmer, Myers, and co., the Padres will be going places.

The Bright Spot

In my opinion, Hosmer will emerge as a leader, star, and mentor on his new team. With the Royals, Hosmer was never a sole leader or the face of the team, but he was on the brink of stardom as he continued to thrive in Kansas City. In San Diego, he will emerge as one of the league’s premium position players as he leads the team and emerges as a superstar. He is already an All-Star Game regular, but he hasn’t received the love and respect he deserves. Now that he’s arguably the best player on his new team, he will completely breakout, and the league will recognize that.

Best Case Scenario: With an upgraded, well-balanced roster, the Padres will get off to a fast start and compete in the NL West. However, in what’s arguably the toughest division in the league, they will not see the playoffs quite yet.

Worst Case Scenario: San Diego’s prospects disappoint in their first years, and the Padres fail to find leaders and mentors in their veterans, which will further affect the young guns as the Padres end up in dead last after they cannot handle the pressure of their division.

Projected Finish: 69-93, 5th in NL West

25. Oakland Athletics

Off-Season Review

Oakland did not do much this off-season, as many of their younger players are finally ready to become everyday players. But they did make a few moves to enhance the roster. They added young OF Stephen Piscotty to take some pressure off rookie CF Dustin Fowler. Now Boog Powell and Jake Smolinski will be able to back Fowler up. They also signed SP Trevor Cahill when Jharel Cotton lost his 2018 season to Tommy John Surgery. Now the rotation will look something like this:

Kendall Graveman RHP
Sean Manaea LHP
Andrew Triggs RHP
Trevor Cahill RHP
Paul Blackburn/Daniel Mendgen*

* A.J. Puk could eventually snag this rotation slot

Other than that, Oakland was pretty quiet this off-season, and it will not hurt them. They didn’t need to do much to keep the roster in good shape. But they will not contend yet. That all depends on when guys like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and A.J. Puk breakout.

The Case for the Athletics

Like I said, the A’s are on the brink of contention, but they need a breakout star or two first. They have a lot of great young pieces, and they are headed in an upward direction now. They have a home run hitter too. But they need a couple younger players to lead the A’s if they want to get back to the playoffs. I don’t care who. It could be Matt Olson, Sean Manaea, Matt Chapman, Andrew Triggs, anyone. I could personally see Manaea or Triggs breaking through, and I also like Olson and Chapman. A.J. Puk is also a breakout candidate. Although I do not have the Athletics contending this year, they could be in a great position by Opening Day 2019.

The Bright Spot

The A’s may not be contending yet, but if they can combine rotation and lineup consistency with the power hitting core they already have, they can make a run at the playoffs. Khris Davis was one of the Top 5 HR hitters of 2017 (the top three are now all part of the AL East). Yes, only Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and J.D. Martinez hit more. I see Davis repeating this over the next couple years, and combining that with Oakland’s flurry of young talent on the brink of a breakout could make for great things. The future is very bright in Oakland.

Best Case Scenario: Davis continues to keep up with the best in the power-hitting department, many of Oakland’s younger players break through, and the A’s jump right back into contention with a record around .500, putting them in great shape for 2019.

Worst Case Scenario: Davis drops off, the rotation is plagued by injuries, and nobody emerges as a leader/star as the A’s disappoint and bore many in 2018.

Projected Finish: 68-94, 5th in AL West*

Note: Although I see a lot of potential here, they need to prove themselves before I can rank them too much higher.

That’s all for this article. Stay tuned for Part 2 coming soon. I will also have my preseason Baseball Bits up before the regular season begins next week. On a side note, I was unable to finish my March Madness previews, but my bracket is busted anyway, and you can click here for my second chance picks. Also, stay tuned for my update on NFL free agency.

March Madness 2018: Previewing the East Region

March 14, 2018March 14, 2018 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM, Uncategorized AAC, Alabama, Arizona State, Arkansas, Arkansas Razorbacks, Bracket, Butler, Carsen Edwards, Cincinnati, Collin Sexton, CSU Fullerton, Florida, Florida Gators, Gonzaga, Jalen Brunson, LIU Brooklyn, LSU, March Madness, Marshall, Marshall Thundering Herd, Mississippi State, Missouri, Murray State, Murray State Racers, NCAA Basketball, NCAAM, North Dakota State, OVC, Pac-12, Purdue, Purdue Boilermakers, Radford, SEC, St. Bonaventure, St. Bonaventure Bonnies, Stephen F. Austin, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Syracuse, Texas Tech, UCLA, UNC Asheville, USC, Villanova, Villanova Wildcats, Virginia Tech, Wagner, West Virginia, West Virginia Mountaineers, Wichita State, Wichita State Shockers, Winthrop

Welcome to part two of my March Madness preview series, where I break down each region on the bracket and pick my winners for the first two rounds and make my pick on who’s going to the final four. If you’d like to see my full bracket, click on the link below.

Tournament Challenge – ESPN – Boston Sports Mania.pdf

Missed a previous article? Check them out below.

Image result for march madness logo

NCAA March Madness Previews

Tuesday, March 13: March Madness 2018: Previewing the Midwest Region

Wednesday, March 14: March Madness 2018: Previewing the East Region

Wednesday, March 14: March Madness 2018: Previewing the South Region

Thursday, March 15: March Madness 2018: Previewing the West Region

Today, I’ll be taking a look at the East Region. Villanova is the clear favorite here and assuming West Virginia or Wichita State doesn’t mess up their momentum, they have a clear path to the Final Four. But don’t be surprised if some underdogs such as Wichita State and Florida challenge them for the crown.

Round of 64 Preview

Pittsburgh: Games Start Thursday, March 15, 2018, at 6:50 PM EST on TNT

#1 Villanova vs. #16 Radford (Beat LIU Brooklyn in First Four)

Radford lucked out when UNC Asheville and Winthrop lost early in the Big South tournament, and they may be better than LIU Brooklyn (who’s only here due to their success vs. Wagner). But they do not have a chance against Villanova. The Wildcats are one of the best teams in the tournament this year, and Jalen Brunson will lead them to a deep run, starting with a win here. Villanova’s high-powered offense will just be too much for Radford.

The Pick: Villanova

#8 Virginia Tech vs. #9 Alabama

I was giving Alabama a hard time early on, but when I realized they had the third toughest schedule, I cut them some slack. It just so happened to turn out that way, and I regret rejecting to place them in my projected Field of 68 until they made a run in the SEC tourney. Doing what they did on the third toughest schedule after missing the tournament last year is very impressive, and they will keep up the good work against Virginia Tech, led by Collin Sexton. Virginia Tech had a great season, but they won’t stay on top of Alabama, who is coming into this tournament with plenty of momentum.

The Pick: Alabama

San Diego: Games Start Friday, March 16, 2018 at 1:30 PM EST on TNT

#4 Wichita State vs. #13 Marshall

The Thundering Herd made a great run in the C-USA tournament, defeating Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky to win the conference. But they did not have a good season. Wichita State was able to win March Madness games in lower seeds. Now that they joined the AAC and got the #4 seed, they will be even stronger. Expect a deep run out of the Shockers, who will continue to shock at the Big Dance. It all starts with an easier win here.

The Pick: Wichita State

#5 West Virginia vs. #12 Murray State

Murray State could pull an upset here. They are 47th in RPI, which is a pretty high mark for a mid-major. But West Virginia has been upset a couple times in recent years, and they will learn from their mistakes. The Mountaineers should be able to get past this ambitious Murray State squad. The Racers were 26-5 after winning the OVC, but they did not beat anyone from a high major conference.

The Pick: West Virginia

Dallas: Games Start Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 7:27 PM EST on truTV

#3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin

SF Austin is one mid-major team who has made a name for themselves in the NCAA tournament. The Lumberjacks quietly had a strong season in the Southland conference, and they came up big in the conference tourney. Their offense will compete with Texas Tech’s, as they have scored 81.1 PPG this season despite an easy schedule. But SFA beat the tougher teams on their schedule like LSU and North Dakota State, coming very close against Mississippi State and Missouri. I’m sensing an upset here. SFA pulled a similar one in 2016 against West Virginia, and they can do it again, this time against Texas Tech, who lost their momentum coming into the Big Dance by losing 4 of their final 5 regular season games and losing to WVU in the Big 12 semifinals.

The Pick: Stephen F. Austin

#6 Florida vs. #11 Saint Bonaventure (Beat UCLA in First Four)

The Bonnies had an impressive win against another Pac-12 team who failed to make the Round of 64 (USC was in the first four out, and Arizona State could lose to Syracuse). But Florida is underrated. The Gators have an interesting profile, with wins over Cincinnati, Gonzaga and others early to go along with a late run, despite some bad losses. They started well and ended well, which makes their season pretty memorable. I could picture them beating the Bonnies. If they can ride their late season momentum, they have the potential to make a deep run.

The Pick: Florida

Detroit: Games Start Friday, March 16 at 12:40 PM EST on truTV

#2 Purdue vs. #15 CSU Fullerton

CSU Fullerton is another team that made an impressive conference tourney run but will fail to keep up their momentum in the NCAA Tournament. Carsen Edwards leads a strong group that makes Purdue’s core this season. Edwards is averaging 18.5 PPG for the Boilermakers, and he will lead a strong offense to the Round of 32 and beyond. Ranking 9th in RPI and averaging 81.1 PPG as a team, the Boilermakers are well on their way.

The Pick: Purdue

#7 Arkansas vs. #10 Butler

The Bulldogs had a good season, but despite making the Big East semifinals, Butler struggled to keep up with the tough but tight Big East. The Razorbacks also rode a late run into the tourney with a SEC tourney semifinal appearance. But I think Arkansas had the better season overall with better wins. They advance to the Round of 32.

The Pick: Arkansas

Round of 32 Preview

If my first round picks are correct, the Round of 32 will line up like this:

#1 Villanova vs. #9 Alabama

#4 Wichita State vs. #5 West Virginia

#6 Florida vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin

#2 Purdue vs. #7 Arkansas

Collin Sexton will challenge Villanova’s offense, but I trust Jalen Brunson to lead Villanova back to the Sweet 16 after Wisconsin upset them in the Round of 32 last year. Wichita State will advance to play them, as they shock West Virginia. West Virginia may have learned from their mistakes in the 1st round, but it’s always difficult to beat Wichita State. I don’t think SF Austin will make the Sweet 16, even though I’m very confident in picking them in the 1st round. Florida continues their momentum from late in the regular season, advancing to the Sweet 16. Lastly, I think the red hot Razorbacks will challenge Purdue, but Carsen Edwards and co. will lead Purdue to the Sweet 16.

And The Projected East Champion Is…

#6 Florida

The Gators are underrated and on a good streak right now, and if they can start off this tournament strong, it will take them places. Purdue and Villanova/Wichita State could give them a real challenge for the crown, but Florida is my underdog to make the Final Four. However, on my safer brackets, I picked Villanova to make their second Final Four in three years. Wichita State and Purdue will also contend.

That’s all for this preview. Stay tuned for Part 3, where I will take a look at the East Region. In addition, I’ll be releasing an update on the NFL free agent frenzy this weekend, including how I’ve done on my predictions so far, the top stories you may have missed, and my thoughts on what happens next.

March Madness 2018: Previewing The Midwest Region

March 13, 2018March 13, 2018 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM, Uncategorized Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Arizona State Sun Devils, Arkansas, Atlantic 10, Auburn, B1G, Baylor, Bucknell, CAA, Charleston, Clemson, Davidson, Duke, Duke Blue Devils, ESPN Tournament Challenge, Georgia Tech, Harvard, Iona, Ivy League, Kansas, Kansas Jayhwaks, MAAC, March Madness, Marvin Bagley III, Miami, Michigan State, Miles Bridges, NCAA Tournament, New Mexico State, New Mexico State Aggies, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Round of 64, SEC, Seton Hall, South Carolina, Syracuse, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Trae Young, UNC, UNC Greensboro, URI, USC, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wichita State, Xavier

Welcome to my second annual March Madness preview series, where I break down each region on the bracket and pick my winners for the first two rounds and make my pick on who’s going to the final four. If you’d like to see my full bracket, click on the link below.

Tournament Challenge – ESPN – Boston Sports Mania.pdf

I am starting with the Midwest region. It was named the strongest region of this year’s tournament by Jim Nantz on the Selection Show, and I agree. It’s top three seeds are Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State. But that doesn’t mean that there’s no room for upsets.

Round of 64 Preview

Wichita: Games Start Thursday, March 15 at 2:00 PM EST on TBS

#1 Kansas vs. #16 Pennsylvania

Penn put up a nice victory over Harvard in the Ivy League finals. But the Jayhawks have had another great season, and there’s no way they will lose to the #16 seed in the first round, something that has never happened to a 1 seed. Ivy league things have had a strong history of upsets in the NCAA Tournament, but Kansas won a much bigger conference, the Big 12, and this will be easy for them.

The Pick: Kansas

#8 Seton Hall vs. #9 North Carolina State

NC State had a strong season, and they deserved a tournament bid now that I think about it. But their loss to Boston College was embarrassing. They also lost to Georgia Tech, UNC Greensboro and Northern Iowa during the season, their best wins being over UNC, Arizona, and Duke. The point is that Seton Hall has the better profile this season. They’ve gotten more quality wins on a tougher schedule, and they match up well against NC State.

The Pick: Seton Hall

San Diego: Games Start Friday, March 16 at 7:27 PM EST on truTV

#4 Auburn vs. #13 Charleston

The Tigers were another team who had a late-season skid. They were in the conversation for a 2 seed back in February, but an early loss to Alabama in the SEC tournament hurt them, and they went just 4-4 in their final 8 regular season games, including a loss to the 17-16 South Carolina Gamecocks. But Charleston had it pretty easy in the CAA, and they aren’t the team to upset Auburn. They are just 56th in RPI and had a very easy schedule. Their strong defense will not be enough to top an all-around good Auburn team, who will win game one in their first NCAA Tournament since 2003. Although they finished 4-4, the SEC was really good this year, and Auburn kept up and won the regular season title despite their conference tourney loss to Alabama.

The Pick: Auburn

#5 Clemson vs. #12 New Mexico State

The Aggies have had a better season than you might think. They dominated in the WAC, ranked 35th in RPI, and scored more points per game than Clemson. They’ve also allowed less PPG to their opponents than Clemson has. Clemson skidded a little towards the end of the season after a great start, so they are not coming into this game with as much momentum as they would’ve liked. Clemson’s schedule was much stronger, but recently, Clemson has struggled to keep up with their tough competition, going 9-8 in their final 17 games. Meanwhile, NM State went 12-2 in the WAC while beating Miami, Davidson, and Illinois out of their conference. I’m sensing an upset.

The Pick: New Mexico State

Pittsburgh: Games Start Thursday, March 15 at 12:15 PM EST on CBS

#7 Rhode Island vs. #10 Oklahoma

Oklahoma is another team that really struggled late in their season, but URI was not great in late season play either, losing to Davidson in the Atlantic 10 championship. The Sooners did beat Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU (twice) early on though. They also beat Wichita State as well as Oregon and USC, who were both on the bubble before the Selection Show. However, Rhode Island had a great season, and they had a fair share of quality wins. They beat Providence and Seton Hall outside the Atlantic 10, and did not have any notably bad losses despite being swept by Davidson. Their RPI is also 14th, which is great compared to Oklahoma’s #48 in RPI. URI’s strong defense will shut down Trae Young and the Sooners, who have proven that they cannot always beat who they need to beat in losses to OSU, Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State in their final games before the tournament. But Oklahoma will come close.

The Pick: Rhode Island

#2 Duke vs. #15 Iona

After making the tournament for the third straight year, it’s about time Iona pulls an upset. But Duke is not a team they can get past. The Blue Devils, led by Marvin Bagley III (put up 21.1 PPG this season) have a dominant offense that the Gaels will fail to slow down. Iona is just #108 in RPI, which is even low for a mid-major in the tournament. Somehow, they still keep winning MAAC championships. I don’t know when they’ll be able to go any further.

The Pick: Duke

Detroit: Games Start Friday 3/16 at 7:10 PM EST on CBS

#3 Michigan State vs. #14 Bucknell

Bucknell did really well in the Patriot League, but they failed to grab hold of Quadrant 1 wins, and they had chances against UNC and Arkansas among others. That means that they don’t have the same profile that other potential Cinderellas have, due to the fact that they failed to win quality games, even when given the chance. MSU also had a pretty easy schedule, giving them fewer opportunities for quality wins, but any team who goes 29-4 in the B1G should beat mid-majors without quality victories with ease. They will be led by Miles Bridges, the Spartans guard who averaged 16.9 PPG.

The Pick: Michigan State

#6 TCU vs. #11 Arizona State/Syracuse

First of all, I have Syracuse beating the Sun Devils. ASU struggled in a weak Pac-12, which weighs them down despite wins over Kansas and Xavier. Syracuse had some nice wins despite a roller coaster of a season, and I can see the Orange winning. TCU put up a nice season in the Big 12 after struggles in 2016-17, but they slipped up a couple times against mediocre teams like Oklahoma State and Vanderbilt. I could see the same happening against Syracuse, who has had some strong wins mixed in with their tough losses, including one over Miami and one over Virginia Tech. Syracuse advances to the Round of 32 after beating both ASU and TCU.

The Pick: Syracuse

Round of 32 Preview

If my first round picks are correct, the Round of 32 will line up like this:

#1 Kansas vs. #8 Seton Hall

#4 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico State

#2 Duke vs. #7 Rhode Island

#3 Michigan State vs. #11 Syracuse

I think Kansas will beat Seton Hall here. Seton Hall has had a nice season with quality wins in their conference on a tough schedule, but again, Kansas went 27-7 and won the Big 12 with the 2nd hardest schedule in the league, ranking 5th in RPI. The Jayhawks have a dominant offense that will make the case for them. I think there will also be more upsets in this round though. New Mexico State will beat Auburn. The Aggies were dominant all season, not just in the WAC but against high major non-conference opponents like Miami. Auburn skid late into the season, going 4-5 to finish, losing to South Carolina in a regular season game and Alabama in the SEC tournament. New Mexico State’s defense will shut down Auburn.

I see Rhode Island pulling an upset over Duke as well. Name one game Rhode Island should be ashamed of losing. There are none I can name, besides their losses to Davidson, and the Wildcats are underrated. Duke has a history of losing in early rounds of the Big Dance, and they already lost to St. John’s, Boston College, and other lower tier teams this season. I do think MSU will top Syracuse though. The Orange may have had some good wins this season, but overall, it wasn’t a great season, and I think the committee had better options for the last team in when building the bracket, such as USC. So don’t expect Syracuse to get past MSU and make the Sweet 16. The Round of 32 is not out of the question though.

And The Projected Midwest Champion Is…

#3 Michigan State

With Duke being eliminated early by an underrated URI team, MSU’s odds to win this region will increase. You could argue for them as a #2 seed, but they lucked out with their schedule, even though they might have to face Duke and/or Kansas, which would be tough. They’ve had it easy in terms of scheduling all season, but they went 29-4, and just because their schedule was easy, it doesn’t mean they can’t beat other top teams. Getting past Kansas will be tough, but I think this team is capable of great things. This is their time to prove that they are the championship contender people think they are.

That’s all for this preview. Stay tuned for Part 2, where I will take a look at the East Region.

Bracketology 3.0: Who’s In & Who’s Out After Championship Week

March 11, 2018 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM, Uncategorized Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Boise State, Bracketology, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Clemson, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Gonzaga, Houston, Iona, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Louisville, Loyola-Chicago, March Madness, Marshall, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Montana, Murray State, NCAA, NCAA Basketball, NCAAM, Nevada, New Mexico State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, San Diego State, Selection Sunday, South Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, Texas, Texas Tech, UCLA, UMBC, UNC, UNC Greensboro, Vermont, Villanova, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Xavier

Selection Sunday is finally here. Most tickets are already punched, and as you are reading this, it is likely that the selection committee is building their bracket. For this bracketology, I followed the real algorithm that the selection committee uses, the only differences being that I do not represent any NCAA team (even as a fan) and that my bracketologies are made by a one person committee (me), so that saved me time that the committee spends voting.

For this bracketology, I have provided analysis for each of the four regions I have put together. I will also give you a final look at this year’s Bubble Watch.

Note: On this bracket, the final five automatic bids that are available have been awarded to the teams I have predicted to win today. This bracket was finalized this morning around 9:00 AM EST. (This did not account for Davidson’s A10 title)

East Region

Villanova secured their 1 seed with an OT victory over Providence in the Big East championship. Cincinnati should secure their #2 with a win over Houston today. I couldn’t see an overload of upsets here, as Villanova, Cincinnati and other powerhouses make this a strong conference. But do not sleep on Michigan, who quietly made their way into the Big Ten finals and beat Purdue, putting an end to Purdue’s contention for a #1 seed and giving a huge boost to Michigan in the selection process. Rhode Island could be another surprise team here, as long as they hold off a rising Providence team. Alongside Providence, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo, and UNC Greensboro could also pull upsets.

I think Buffalo could easily upset a Clemson team that struggled a bit late into the season. UNC Greensboro could also pose a significant threat to a Texas Tech team that was contending for a Big 12 title until the final weeks of the season. Loyola-Chicago could also be dangerous after going 28-5, a great record for a mid-major team. In the end, I think this conference will come down to Villanova, Cincy, and possibly Michigan.

West Region

Much like Villanova, Kansas secured their #1 seed with the Big 12 win. But Villanova was already a practical lock for one, while Kansas competed with several other teams for the fourth 1 seed. That leaves Duke, also a #1 contender who I have in the west region, in a #2 seed. They will likely compete for the final four in another strong conference. Wichita State, Gonzaga, and Kentucky among others could also contend. But even though it looks unlikely for Cinderella teams to make a crazy run without pulling a shocker over Kansas or Duke, I do see upsets happening.

New Mexico State has pulled upsets in the past, and they could become a Cinderella if they can get to the Sweet 16 over Nevada and Duke. Boise State and San Diego State, who came close to Nevada in the battle for the Mountain West’s regular-season title, could also pull upsets. SDSU had to beat Nevada to get to the title game and win the conference tourney. Boise State is now on the bubble after failing to win the Mountain West in both the regular season and playoffs, but despite a lack of strong victories, I think they are on the committee’s radar. Montana is the mid-major team I could see pulling a shocking upset. But they’ll have to get past Gonzaga, a west coast powerhouse.

UCLA and Western Kentucky make up half of my Last Four In, and they could also pull an upset. I think UCLA should be in after making the Pac-12 semifinals, and I value Western Kentucky’s win over Purdue very highly, so even in a mid-major conference, I think they can make it after falling to Marshall last night. In the end, as I had said before, I think it will be Kansas or Duke that comes out of the west.

South Region

This region is a little more upset friendly. Michigan State was upset in the first round the last time they were a #2 seed, and although I doubt UMBC can beat MSU, it’s a possibility that Florida can beat them. Although Virginia was the best team in the league during the regular season, I don’t know if they will have the same success under the pressure of March Madness. They should make the Sweet 16, but after that, the pressure could get to them. Auburn is pushed into the #3 slot after losing to Florida in the SEC tournament. There will be plenty of upsets here. Stephen F. Austin upset West Virginia in 2016, but can they do the same to the #4 seed Arizona? SFA got here by winning the Southland championship last night.

Bubble teams like Alabama and Louisville, who round out my Last Four In, could pull an upset as well, especially against West Virginia. SFA will also have a chance to beat West Virginia again if they both win in the Round of 64, so even as a #5, West Virginia will not have it easy. However, teams like SFA and Louisville are not serious contenders. Look for Houston and Florida to pull upsets later on to contend for the conference alongside Virginia, MSU, and others.

Midwest Region

This is the conference that I see having the most upsets. Xavier proved that they can struggle under pressure after losing to Providence in the Big East semifinals. Will lower seeds get a piece of them, especially in later rounds? I think Ohio State could be the team that upsets them, in the Sweet 16. Although OSU lost to Penn State multiple times, including in the B1G quarterfinals, I see them bouncing back for a deep run, especially if they can beat an ambitious South Dakota State team, who nearly pulled an upset last time they were here, as a #12 seed.

Iona is another team to watch. Purdue has struggled a bit of late, and the Gaels surprised many by winning the MAAC and returning to the Big Dance. Murray State and Charleston are also among the mid-majors with plenty of upside in this region. Even bubble teams, like Middle Tennessee could pull upsets. I still see the dominant Blue Raiders as a tournament team. They made a mistake. It just happened to occur in the conference semifinals. Marshall, who beat them, went on to win Conference USA. With Xavier, Purdue, and other high seeds being matched up against high upside teams, UNC and Ohio State among others could emerge as contenders for the Final Four.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In

UCLA
Alabama
Louisville
Western Kentucky

UCLA should still make it. They finished with a decent record and made the Pac-12 semifinals, and although USC is in a better position, UCLA has a pretty secure slot. On the other hand, I didn’t have Alabama in the field of 68 until they made the SEC semifinals. Their impressive run should put them on the committee’s radar.

You could argue that Louisville’s late collapse and lack of quality wins will cause them to drop out of the field, but I still see them as a contender for a spot after beating FSU to make the ACC quarterfinals. They didn’t have a chance against Virginia, so the FSU win might be enough to put Louisville in and kick FSU out. Western Kentucky’s success in the C-USA will help them, but it’s their wins over Purdue and other high major conference teams that proves them worthy of grabbing a spot. You could argue for Louisiana or Vermont instead, but WKU has more quality victories.

First Four Out

Florida State
Oregon
Penn State
Syracuse

FSU could be put in the field of 68 over Louisville or WKU, but they lacked quality wins. Oregon’s struggles in the weakening Pac-12 will keep them out. They couldn’t stay on top in a downfall for most Pac-12 teams. Penn State is on the committee’s radar after their upset of OSU, but it’s not enough to put them in the tourney. Syracuse will also miss the tournament. They had some impressive wins, but also embarrassing losses. All these teams will be in serious consideration though.

Next Four Out

North Carolina State
Texas
Vermont
Louisiana

NC State’s loss to Boston College likely burst their bubble. They are not even in my first four out anymore. Texas’ lack of quality wins plus their 14 loss season likely put an end to their hopes. Vermont and Louisiana may be mid-majors who lost their conference, but they dominated in regular season play. However, it does not compare to what high major teams on the bubble have done, as both Vermont and Louisiana lack Quadrant 1 wins.

That’s all for my bracketology. Stay tuned for my bracket breakdown series, which will be released throughout the week after the selection show.

The Day I Learned The True Meaning Of Boston Strong

March 7, 2018March 7, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox, Special Occasions, Uncategorized Andrew Bailey, Boston, Boston Bruins, Boston Celtics, Boston Globe, Boston Marathon, Boston Marathon Bombings, Boston Red Sox, Boston Strong, Bruins, Celtics, Daniel Nava, David Ortiz, Green Monster, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, Lorenzo Cain, Neil Diamond, Red Sox, Royals, Sports Museum, TD Garden, Will McDonough Writing Contest

Recently, I entered the 2018 Will McDonough Writing Contest through the Boston Globe and the Sports Museum at TD Garden. On Monday, I found out that I received an honorable mention at the 8th grade level for my 500-word essay. Over 1000 kids participated in this contest. As a prize, I will be receiving a certificate and four free museum passes. I have been to the TD Garden for Celtics games, Bruins games, and many other events, but I have never gotten the opportunity to visit this museum, and I am really looking forward to it.

You can see the other winners and honorable mentions for the contest and more information about the contest here.

My essay was about the attending the first Red Sox game at Fenway after the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombings. I have also added pictures below that were taken on the day of the game.

Below is my official essay.

The Day I Learned The True Meaning of Boston Strong

It was the middle of the 8th inning at Fenway Park on April 20, 2013. As usual, Sweet Caroline was playing. But this time Neil Diamond surprised everyone by showing up to sing it live. It was the first Fenway game since the Boston Marathon bombings. The game was against the Royals and I was there for my cousin’s 10th birthday.

Although the bombings were on Marathon Monday, I didn’t hear about it until Wednesday because I was only nine and my parents didn’t want me to know about the awful news. While in line at Dunkin Donuts I saw coverage of the bomber manhunt on TV so they had to tell me what was going on.

As the weekend approached, the Red Sox canceled the Friday night game. The city was on lockdown until the second bomber was caught. That night I couldn’t fall asleep until I knew the bomber was captured. Fortunately, he was and Saturday morning we headed to the first game since the bombing.

When we arrived on Lansdowne Street, the entertainment outside Fenway combined with thousands of people singing “Hallelujah” inside the park helped lift the sadness in the city. We had to wait on a long security line but nobody seemed to mind. We were just happy that the game was on and the city was safe.

The energy inside Fenway that day was indescribable. The pregame ceremonies began honoring the Marathon bombing victims, the police that hunted down the bombers, and the paramedics who helped many wounded victims. The Red Sox were wearing special Boston Strong jerseys and there was a “B Strong” symbol on the Green Monster. As part of the ceremony, David Ortiz firmly stated, “This is Our F***ing City!” I had been to several games before but this was different.

The game itself started off slow but the crowd was loud after the inspiring pregame ceremony, chanting “USA” and “Boston Strong” rather than “Let’s go Red Sox.” The Royals jumped out to a 2-1 lead. But after Neil Diamond’s surprise appearance, Daniel Nava crushed a go-ahead 3-run homer to give the Red Sox a 4-2 lead. Although Lorenzo Cain hit a solo homer in the top of the 9th, closer Andrew Bailey finished the job for Boston, who won 4-3.

After the game we were ecstatic, but we had no idea how much the Red Sox would turn things around for the remainder of the season. Following a dismal last place 2012 season, I believe this game propelled the Red Sox to a 2013 World Series victory.

As we approach the five year anniversary of this historic game, what I remember most is how unified the city, as well as the country, seemed to be after such a violent event struck our city. I wish our country didn’t feel so divided and helpless right now especially after numerous mass shootings. We need the feeling of unity and resilience that everyone felt that day at Fenway Park.

References

“Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Box Score, April 20, 2013.” Baseball Reference, 20 Apr. 2013, www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201304200.shtml

My brother and I enjoying the entertainment outside Fenway Park during the long security lines.

I hope you enjoyed reading my essay. If you would like to enter the contest yourself, sign-ups for 2019 will be open next January. It is open to students between grades 4 and 12.

MLB 2018 Predictions: Exciting Season In The Making Despite Slow Off-Season

March 3, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized Aaron Judge, Addison Reed, Adrian Beltre, Alex Cobb, Alex Reyes, Andrew McCutchen, Andrew Triggs, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Bradley Zimmer, Bryce Harper, Buster Posey, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Carrasco, Carlos Santana, Chase Headley, Chris Sale, Christian Arroyo, Christian Yelich, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Dickerson, Corey Kluber, Daniel Murphy, Dee Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Drew Smyly, Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Nunez, Eloy Jimenez, Eric Hosmer, Evan Longoria, Fernando Rodney, Freddy Galvis, George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Holland, Hunter Dozier, Hunter Pence, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Jake Arrieta, Jake Odorizzi, Jay Bruce, Jesse Winker, Jharel Cotton, Joey Votto, John Lackey, Jon Gray, Jose Altuve, Justin Upton, Justin Verlander, Kyle Tucker, Logan Morrison, Lorenzo Cain, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Max Scherzer, Melvin Upton Jr., Michael Kopech, Michael Pineda, Mike Moustakas, Mike Napoli, Mike Trout, Miles Mikolas, MLB, Neil Waker, Nolan Arenado, Predictions, Rajai Davis, Red Sox, Ronald Acuna, Ryan McMahon, Sean Manaea, Shohei Ohtani, Sox, Stephen Strasburg, Tyler Chatwood, Tyson Ross, Victor Robles, Wade Davis, Wil Myers, Yonder Alonso, Yu Darvish, Zack Cozart

It is that time of year again. Although I had to delay this article due to the excruciatingly quiet start to the off-season, my MLB Predictions are here. Read below to find out my thoughts on who will win the World Series and how they’ll get there. I will also be predicting who wins the major MLB awards. Let’s get started with my projected regular season standings.

Note: These Predictions are based on potential, but do account for the lack of real FA signings

Record Projections

AL East

New York Yankees 96-66 (#1 seed AL)
Boston Red Sox 92-70 (#4 seed AL)
Toronto Blue Jays 76-86
Baltimore Orioles 73-89
Tampa Bay Rays 70-92

The Bronx Bombers are back. With Giancarlo Stanton on board, the Yankees have last year’s top two home run hitters in their lineup. They could have a historic home run duo going. Stanton and Judge will be surrounded by other big hitters, young players full of potential, and a respectable rotation.

But the Red Sox will challenge them after signing the #3 HR hitter of 2017 in J.D. Martinez. After a long game of chicken, they finally agreed to terms on a deal on February 19th. The Sox also brought back super utility Eduardo Nunez, who will start at second until Dustin Pedroia returns in mid-April. Martinez, Nunez and the Killer B’s will lead the Sox to be elite contenders and compete with the Yankees. In addition, ace Chris Sale leads a strong Red Sox rotation, one thing Boston has on the Yankees. Sale, Pomeranz, and Porcello have led Boston’s rotation to outpitch the Yanks. I will have an extended spring preview for the Sox coming soon, where I will try and answer some of the team’s biggest questions headed into 2018.

The rest of the division is in rebuild mode, and the Red Sox and Yankees will feed on them, while the two of them compete against each other. The Blue Jays have revamped their roster with lower tier free agents and younger players who will lead the new era of the team. Meanwhile, the Orioles have rotation turnover issues after they lost multiple starters to free agency. They signed two starters, but they still have rotation problems, and their lineup is still good, but it’s no longer All-Star material. Meanwhile, the Rays have completely remodeled their roster after trading away Evan Longoria, Jake Odorizzi, and Corey Dickerson. They will be led by young talent on their new look roster. Although the other teams in this division look intriguing, Red Sox and Yankees are the only teams that I would consider playoff contenders in the AL East.

AL Central

Cleveland Indians 92-70 (#3 seed AL)
Minnesota Twins 87-75
Kansas City Royals 73-89
Detroit Tigers 69-93
Chicago White Sox 66-96

The Indians are still the clear favorite. They may have lost key pieces in Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce, but they made up for it by signing 1B Yonder Alonso, 1B/DH Mike Napoli, OF Melvin Upton Jr. and OF Rajai Davis. Young outfielder Bradley Zimmer is also in the running for a starting outfield job.

That doesn’t mean the Twins won’t contend though. They upgraded a roster that was already strong this off-season, by signing Logan Morrison and relievers Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed as well as acquiring Jake Odorizzi from Tampa Bay. They also signed Michael Pineda, who may return from Tommy John surgery later this year. The Twins are setting themselves up to return to the playoffs, but they’ll have competition in the wild card race, with the Red Sox and Angels also contending.

The rest of this division will fail to contend. The Royals lost their core players in Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain and that has led them to rebuild. The Tigers are heading into a rebuild of their own after their older team struggled in early 2017. However, their roster appears to be falling into place, for the most part. They could use another infielder in the mix. After trading away J.D. Martinez last year and trading Ian Kinsler in the off-season, the Tigers are headed in the right direction, focusing on their future. The White Sox will rely on their young talent after rebuilding in 2017. They are hoping that their top prospects, Michael Kopech and Eloy Jimenez, can make an impact at the major league level as well as prospects that cracked the majors last year. The Indians are the clear favorites here, but the Twins could also contend, and do not be surprised if one of the three rebuilding squads in the division begins contending quicker than expected.

AL West

Houston Astros 95-67 (#2 seed AL)
Los Angeles Angels 88-74 (#5 seed AL)
Seattle Mariners 83-79
Texas Rangers 74-88
Oakland Athletics 68-94

The Astros are still the clear favorites here. They’ve only gotten better since last year’s World Series win, so if they have any hangover, it will only affect them early on, and won’t hit them that hard, similar to what happened to the Cubs last season. A full season of Justin Verlander and the acquisition of Gerrit Cole will make their rotation unstoppable, and their lineup is still just as good, as prospects will fill in for what they lost in Carlos Beltran, who retired.

The Angels will also compete though. They arguably have one of the best lineups in the league after adding Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart as well as resigning Justin Upton. Although the rotation is not dominant, the new two-way Japanese star in Shohei Ohtani will help them improve, and hopefully, the injury bug will not hit them as hard this year. The Mariners will also have a decent year, but they are relying on Dee Gordon to make a smooth transition to the outfield, and the rest of their outfield doesn’t look great.

In addition, it will be hard to contend with inexperienced players occupying several starting jobs. The Rangers aren’t going to be terrible either, but some of their best players like Adrian Beltre are getting old, and not all of their younger players will be able to succeed at the major league level this year. I like their intriguing off-season, but unless they break out with what they have, it might be time for the Rangers to consider a rebuild. The Athletics are hoping that they can start moving in an upward direction after their own rebuild, but I think their young players need another season or two to develop before the A’s get ready for contention again. This year will focus on the development of their young guns like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton, and Andrew Triggs among others. In the end, look for the Astros to repeat here and the Angels to make a run at a wild-card spot.

NL East

Washington Nationals 97-65 (#1 seed NL)
New York Mets 86-76
Atlanta Braves 78-84
Philadelphia Phillies 71-91
Miami Marlins 64-98

After the Nationals cruised into the NLDS in a weak NL East in 2017, I do expect Washington to repeat. But other teams in the division will start to make strides toward contention. At one point, I thought this might be the year that the Marlins pounce to the top of the division, but instead, they decided to rebuild early, dealing away all three of their starting outfielders (Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna) plus 2B Dee Gordon. Now they might very well be the MLB’s worst team on paper.

But the Mets, Braves, and Phillies are moving in an upward direction. If they can stay healthy, the Mets added several key pieces that could lead them back to contention. I think they are close to playoff material, but not quite there yet. The Braves look ready to break out at any moment, but I don’t know if their breakthrough will come in 2018. But I definitely think they will improve this season. The Phillies may not be ready for contention yet, but this young team is setting themselves up for success. If they continue to boost their young roster with veterans over the next couple years, we may see them return to the playoffs.

Despite the rest of the division’s effort to contend, the Nats are still the #1 team here, and they are a World Series contender. In his contract year, Bryce Harper will lead a powerful Nationals lineup, and their rotation might just need one more strong starter such as Jake Arrieta to lead the Nats deeper into the playoffs. With many of their stars hitting the open market soon, it will be World Series or bust in 2018 for Washington.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs 92-70 (#3 seed NL)
St. Louis Cardinals 90-72 (#4 seed NL)
Milwaukee Brewers 87-75
Cincinnati Reds 79-83
Pittsburgh Pirates 67-95

If I had to name one division that improved the most this off-season, I would say the NL Central without hesitation. Despite losing SP John Lackey to free agency, the Cubs continued to improve this off-season with the signing of pitchers Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, and Drew Smyly (may return late in 2018). They are a significant World Series contender. But the division will not be easy to win as the Cardinals and Brewers have also improved.

St. Louis signed Miles Mikolas in his return to the MLB but may need to add another starter for rotational depth. They may even try and snag closer Greg Holland or 3B Mike Moustakas before Opening Day. They also acquired OF Marcell Ozuna from Miami. They will contend this year, and so will the Brewers, who despite the desperate need for a #1 starter, will be significantly better in 2018 after signing Lorenzo Cain and acquiring Christian Yelich to improve their outfield and make it dominant. They may want to resign Neil Walker before Opening Day if they really care about winning now. Unless they sign a pitcher or a middle infielder, I don’t see them as a lock for the playoffs, but they will contend.

The Reds could also contend soon, but it will take another year or so for the lineup to become playoff material and the young rotation to improve. Meanwhile, the Pirates have begun rebuilding after trading away OF Andrew McCutchen and SP Gerrit Cole. They will not contend this year due to their rebuilding intentions as well as a serious depth problem and lack of a leader in their starting rotation. Although Cincy and Pittsburgh won’t be in the playoff race, this strong division will be competitive as its top three teams battle for playoff berths.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers 95-67 (#2 seed NL)
Colorado Rockies 88-74 (#5 seed NL)
Arizona Diamondbacks 87-75
San Francisco Giants 85-77
San Diego Padres 69-93

Although the NL Central improved the most this off-season, the NL West is still the MLB’s strongest division. This year, I think that four teams in this division will finish with a winning record, and two will make the playoffs. The Dodgers will stay on top here. They have managed to keep most of the players that helped them succeed in 2017, although their rotation doesn’t have the same kind of depth that it used to. They didn’t need 7-8 viable starters on the roster though. No team in this division has gained significantly on the Dodgers, but other teams in the division have improved.

This could be the year for the Rockies. Their lineup will dominate, and their young rotation should continue to improve. The rotation is also aided by a strong bullpen that will be led by new closer Wade Davis. The D-Backs have added outfield depth after J.D. Martinez’s departure for Boston, and they will continue to contend in 2018, although I don’t think they will quite make it this time around, as the Cardinals and Brewers have gotten better and could grab a wild card.

The Giants have also improved after acquiring Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, but after a 64-98 season, I find it hard to believe that even year luck alone will lead them back to the playoffs. They still have rotation depth problems behind their top three starters and aside from Cutch, Longo, Buster Posey, and Hunter Pence, this lineup isn’t overly intriguing. Even the Padres will improve. Some of their top prospects have cracked the majors, and they have brought back Chase Headley and Tyson Ross in addition to acquiring Freddy Galvis. Their biggest move of the off-season was signing 1B Eric Hosmer. He will be a veteran mentor for this young team and allows Wil Myers to assist the young outfield. The Dodgers are the clear favorites here, but this division is hard to predict beyond that.

Now for my playoff predictions.

Playoff Predictions

As you all know, I am an avid Boston sports fan. But as an unbiased reporter, I don’t think the Red Sox have the edge on the Yankees this year. The Bronx Bombers just have too powerful of a lineup, and despite the fact that Boston has one of the best rotations in the MLB and signed a home run hitter of their own in J.D. Martinez, it’s just not enough to compete with the “Evil Empire” in New York. The Sox will win over the Angels in the Wild Card round though. The Angels may have a powerful lineup, but they are nothing like the Yankees, and rotation problems will hold them back. I have the Yankees advancing to the World Series, but only to be defeated by the motivated Washington Nationals. Like I said, it’s World Series or bust in Washington, and I think this year’s Nats are legitimate contenders.

In the AL, the Astros will come close to a World Series return, but even their dominant rotation will struggle against the Yankees lineup. The Astros will top a well rounded Indians team. The Indians look good this year but will have a hard time competing with this strong Astros team. Jose Altuve (who I could see having another MVP caliber year), George Springer, and Justin Verlander among others will lead Houston to the ALCS.

In the NL, the Dodgers will also come close to a World Series return after beating the Cubs somewhat easily in the NLDS. But they will struggle against a strong Nats rotation, and even Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw could have a hard time against Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and the improved Nats lineup. The Cardinals will also fall to the Nats. Their younger rotation will struggle on the big stage, and their lineup isn’t fierce enough this year to stop the strong Nats rotation, despite the powerful pieces they have in Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Carpenter among others.

The Cards do have the edge in the Wild Card round though, as their lineup will overwhelm young Rockies ace Jon Gray. In the end, the Nats will dominate this side of the bracket and go on to win the World Series. The window is closing for the Nats to win a title with Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, and company. But 2018 is their final shot at a World Series win in this era, and they will be driven by this fact.

To much to take in? My video summary of this post will be on YouTube soon. I will post the link on my blog when it is up.

Award Predictions

Below I have listed my Top 3 picks for each major MLB award.

AL MVP

Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU – After winning this award last year, I could see Altuve repeating his 2017 dominance. He is one of my favorite non-Red Sox players and he has emerged as a star and leader on the Astros.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, NYY – On his new team, not only will Stanton pair up with Aaron Judge to create one of the best HR duos of all time, but also put up a strong average and hit not only for power but also for consistency
Mike Trout, OF, LAA – Trout is always a candidate for this award, and although injuries held him back a bit in 2017, he will remain an elite contender for this award in 2018

Honorable Mention: Justin Upton, OF, LAA

NL MVP

Bryce Harper, OF, WSH – Another one of my non-Red Sox favorites. In a contract year, Harper will go from elite player to future Hall Of Famer in an all-around dominant season
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL – With the Rockies back in playoff contention, Arenado will play at MVP level in 2018, leading the strong Rockies lineup to continued success
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN – I think Votto will also emerge as an MVP caliber player this year as he continues to put up great numbers despite the fact that he is older than many other all-star level players.

Honorable Mention: Eric Hosmer, 1B, SD

AL Cy Young

Chris Sale, BOS – I think Sale will repeat the success he had early in 2017 with the Red Sox, and he is my pick to win the Cy Young.
Justin Verlander, HOU – Verlander will emerge as a leader in the strong Astros rotation in another deep playoff run for the Astros. He will be Sale’s #1 competitor for the Cy Young in 2018.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE – I could see Carrasco returning to his dominant 2015 form this year and creating a dynamic duo in the rotation alongside Corey Kluber.

Honorable Mention: Corey Kluber, CLE

NL Cy Young

Stephen Strasburg, WSH – Strasburg already returned to the ace level last year with an ERA around 2.50, and I think he could keep it up in 2018 and make a significant run at a Cy Young award.
Yu Darvish, CHC – Chicago is a great fit for Darvish, and I could see him thriving in Chicago and running at a Cy Young.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD – Kershaw is always a candidate for this award much like Trout is for the MVP. He will continue to succeed in 2018.

Honorable Mention: Max Scherzer, WSH*

* For those of you who read my latest free agency article, you would know I think Alex Cobb is going to the Brewers. If he signs in Milwaukee, he could be a significant candidate to battle for a Cy Young award.

AL Rookie of the Year

Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, LAA – Who else would I put at the top of this list? This two-way phenom is practically a lock to make the Angels roster despite the fact that he is a rookie non-roster invitee.
Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU – I think Tucker could have a significant role at the major league level in 2018. He will compete for a starting outfield job when he comes up. He is the brother of former Astros outfielder Preston Tucker.
Hunter Dozier, 3B, KC – I think Dozier can make an impact at the major league level, even with Lucas Duda in line to start at first. I see Dozier as Kansas City’s starting third baseman as long as he is successful early in the season, and I see potential in him.

Honorable Mention: Christian Arroyo, 3B, TB

NL Rookie of the Year

Jesse Winker, OF, CIN – I think Winker will breakout this year as he establishes himself as a starter at the major league level. He will compete for the Rookie of the Year award.
Ronald Acuna, OF, ATL – Once Acuna cracks the majors, he has the chance to become a starter in left field, and once that happens, I see the potential for him to be great.
Ryan McMahon, 1B, COL – With Ian Desmond headed back to the outfield and Mark Reynolds in the open market, there’s an open spot for McMahon at first base. If they resign Reynolds, they could work out some sort of platoon, but either way, I think McMahon has the potential for success in the majors this year.

Honorable Mentions: Alex Reyes, SP, STL and Victor Robles, OF, WSH

That’s all for my MLB 2018 Predictions. Stay tuned for more baseball articles including my spring power rankings, my Red Sox 2018 season preview, and my 2nd annual preseason Baseball Bits article.

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