Welcome to my Week 6 NFL Picks. Last week, I went 7-8, putting my overall record at 44-33-1 (45-33-1 including Week 6 TNF). However, I’m still beating 3 of 20 (tied with another 2) experts from CBS Sports and ESPN. A lot of teams have struggled to a surprising extent so far this year. But this week, I feel like some of these teams will turn it around. Keep reading to find out which teams I have proving themselves competitive, and which teams I have asserting themselves as the league’s best. As always, feel free to comment with your thoughts.
Lock of the Week
QB Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense have struggled this season. Both Ryan and RB Devonta Freeman have shown signs of regression. But against a weak Arizona defense, expect the Falcons to look like their old selves, as Ryan leans on his elite trio of wide receivers. The Cardinals will struggle significantly against a mediocre Atlanta defense, exposing them as one of the league’s worst teams.
Upset of the Week
QB Sam Darnold is back, and I have him coming back with a bang. He will utilize slot WR Jamison Crowder, who has emerged as Darnold’s favorite target, though WR Robby Anderson and TE Chris Herndon will also look strong in this game against a young, inexperienced Dallas defense. RB Le’Veon Bell will be held back a bit by DE DeMarcus Lawrence and the rest of the Cowboys run defense, but in this game, stopping Bell won’t be enough to stop the Jets. Dallas will put up a good fight in this close one, as RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the offense and QB Dak Prescott works more with his other receivers as opposed to just WR Amari Cooper. But the Jets will still come out on top, led by a healthy Darnold.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted before the game; Actual Score: 35-14 Patriots)
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Led by their run game, look for New England to easily contain a banged-up Giants squad. Aside from QB Daniel Jones and WR Golden Tate, this Giants offense doesn’t have much going for them. The Patriots defense will shut them down and hold them TD-less. Meanwhile, the duo of RBs Sony Michel and James White will shine against a weak New York front seven, leading the way for New England. |
| Sunday, 9:30 AM EST (Posted before the game)
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Expect an OT thriller here as QB Jameis Winston utilizes the great WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to lead the Bucs to last minute victory against an unbalanced Carolina defense. QB Kyle Allen will make it competitive, relying on RB Christian McCaffrey once again. But Allen will face defeat for the first time as he fails to keep up with a strong Tampa offense. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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In a battle of two 0-5 teams, the Redskins will reign superior. Washington has had a QB crisis this year without Alex Smith, but there’s bound to be 1 of the 3 QB’s on their roster that can handle the weak Miami defense. Expect CB Xavien Howard to shut down WR Terry McLaurin, but the Redskins will still come out on top, as they lean on the RB duo of Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson. QB Josh Rosen and the Dolphins will show signs of improvement, but it won’t be nearly enough for Miami to win. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Cleveland’s offense is extremely overrated and they have really underperformed. This will continue as the Browns host Seattle, but watch out for Cleveland’s D who will hold a shallow Seahawks offense to single digits. Even QB Russell Wilson’s strong game won’t be enough to take down the Browns on their home turf. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Lamar Jackson to rebound to an extent as he leads Baltimore past the Bengals. The Bengals will make it close. QB Andy Dalton will struggle and throw a couple picks against a strong Ravens secondary. However, RBs Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard will anchor the Bengals offense here. It still won’t be enough for Jackson and his large group of reliable receivers. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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If you think last week’s Texans game was high scoring, just wait for this week. We’re about to have Chiefs-Rams 2.0 on our hands. Expect QB Patrick Mahomes to dominate with all his receivers healthy. QB Deshaun Watson will also put up another huge game, this time utilizing both WR DeAndre Hopkins and WR Will Fuller V. This will be a back and forth shootout, as each QB throws for over 400 yards and at least 4-5 TDs. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Gardner Minshew will run out of magic here as the Saints defense steps it up and shuts his resources down. This will allow QB Teddy Bridgewater to look like a capable starting QB and lead the Saints to a big victory in Jacksonville. Teddy B. will utilize RB Alvin Kamara, WR Michael Thomas, and the rest of his dominant offensive surroundings. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Kirk Cousins utilized the WR duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs in Minnesota’s last game, and it paid off. If he can do the same under the pressure of the tough Eagles defense, that would be huge for him and huge for Minnesota’s season. I have confidence in Cousins to perform well in this game as QB Carson Wentz and his receivers fall short up against one of the best defenses in the league. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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Even with RB Todd Gurley banged-up, I expect the Rams to handle the 49ers easily in LA. The LA defense will step it up and hold QB Jimmy Garoppolo and his offense to just 1 TD and 10 points. Meanwhile, the Rams WR trio will just be too much for the 49ers to contain. The Niners will definitely limit the Rams and LA’s offense will not quite look like their dominant selves against San Fran. But it won’t be enough to prevent the Rams from an easy victory. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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With the Broncos D banged up, look for Tennessee to put up a big game, as QB Marcus Mariota utilizes his wide variety of receivers. Denver’s offense will fail to compete or look like themselves as the Titans defense shuts them down, allowing the Titans to win with ease. |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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With RB Melvin Gordon and TE Hunter Henry active tonight, the Chargers should easily take down Pittsburgh. They will be limited by a decent Steelers defense. But with QB Mason Rudolph out, the Steelers offense will fail to do much of anything against a strong, balanced Chargers defense. |
| Monday, 8:15 PM EST
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This one will come down to the wire as two surprisingly good offenses duke it out. The Packers will rely on RB Aaron Jones and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling with WR Davante Adams out, which will be enough for QB Aaron Rodgers to lead Green Bay to victory. But the Lions will make this a close shootout, as they do surprisingly well on offense once again. The NFC North might be the most competitive division in this league, as two of the teams have the best defenses and the other two have an unbelievable offensive core. This game will prove that. |
That’s all for my picks this week. Stay tuned for more NFL coverage in the coming weeks.
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