Welcome to my NFL Week 11 Picks.  I went 9-5 last week, placing my overall record at 78-68.  How will I do in this week’s slate of games?  Read below and comment with your thoughts.

Teams on Bye: Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Note: In the images, the team on the top is the road team, and the team on the bottom is the home team.

Lock of the Week

The Browns will receive a rude awakening against the strong Jaguars defense.  The Jaguars front seven will shut down RB Isaiah Crowell, and the Browns will fail to establish their passing game.  Offensively, QB Blake Bortles and RB Leonard Fournette will keep the Jags going, even without WR Allen Hurns.  Jags win easy.

Upset of the Week (TNF)

Against subpar teams like the Jags, Colts, and Bears, the Steelers don’t bring their A-game.  The Titans will surprise many as Pittsburgh continues their bad run against teams they should beat.  QB Ben Roethlisberger will struggle as he faces unexpected pressure from the strong Titans defensive front.  The Steelers defense won’t fare much better, failing to contain Titans young QB Marcus Mariota and his receiving corps.  Titans pull off the upset.

Sunday’s Games

With WR Mike Evans back, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should be able to lead the Bucs to victory.  As we’ve seen over the last few weeks, the Dolphins receiving corps will not be able to do its thing with QB Jay Cutler under center.  Their offense can’t do too much without star RB Jay Ajayi.  The young Buccaneers defense will feed on Miami’s struggles.

The Packers may have beaten their division rival Chicago Bears last week, but the Ravens will be a tougher opponent for inexperienced QB Brett Hundley and the Packers offense.  The Ravens defense will flush Hundley out of the pocket and he will struggle to find his receivers.  Expect Ravens QB Joe Flacco to look strong coming off the bye, and his versatile receivers will get open more often than not against the stingy Green Bay secondary.  The well-rested Ravens will be too much for the Packers, even in Green Bay.

Even though both starting QBs are out, and the Texans D is depleted by injuries, this game will be more exciting than one would expect.  QB Drew Stanton and his receiving corps will breeze past a weak Texans secondary.  I also think the Texans offense will put up a big game, even against a strong Arizona secondary.  I expect a strong Texans running game to be the difference in this game.

The Chiefs D will shut down QB Eli Manning, and he will struggle to find the receivers that he’s only had a few weeks to develop a connection with.  The Giants defense will shut down RB Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs run game.  But the Giants will give up big plays to WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce, and that will cost the Giants in this low scoring game.

The Saints offense will dominate in this game, feeding on a Washington defense that has given up 25.8 PPG (7th worst in the NFL).  But it’s the Saints young defense will continue to surprise many as they again do enough to help the Saints win.  The Saints will continue to have a balanced attack, not relying on QB Drew Brees alone. The RB duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram should have big games.  For Washington, QB Kirk Cousins will have a big game, but it won’t be enough to keep up with the Saints.

The Vikings defense will dominate, slowing down RB Todd Gurley and the Rams’ powerful offense.  Meanwhile, the Rams will struggle to cover Minnesota’s versatile group of receivers as QB Case Keenum throws 4 TD.  Rams QB Jared Goff will just be under too much pressure to match Keenum’s stats against Minnesota’s tough front seven, and the Vikings will win.

The Bears will struggle to generate a passing rhythm, but their RB, Jordan Howard, will have a big game.  The Lions D will struggle to slow down Howard, but they will keep QB Mitch Trubisky under a lot of pressure throughout the game.  For the Lions, WR Kenny Golladay and TE Eric Ebron will come up big again, like they did last week against Cleveland.  The Lions will win after the Bears struggle offensively and allow the Lions offense to dominate.

Benching QB Tyrod Taylor for QB Nathan Peterman was a good move for Buffalo.  But it won’t be enough in LA against the Chargers’ electric offense.  In addition, Peterman will have a tough time against the Chargers young defensive front.  DE Joey Bosa and LB Melvin Ingram will flush him out of the pocket.  For LA, the receiving corps will thrive against the Bills strong secondary to lead the Chargers to victory.

The Pats are 12-0 on the road since the start of 2016.  In the high elevation of Mexico City, the Pats should be more prepared than Oakland, since they spent the last week practicing in the similarly high elevation of Colorado Springs.  Expect the Pats TE duo to dominate against the young Raiders secondary, the only secondary without an interception this season.

The Pats secondary will slow down the Raiders wide receivers enough.  QB Tom Brady will have a big game, and the Pats’ four-headed monster at RB will also make an impact as the Patriots outlast the Raiders in an offensive shootout.

The Broncos will win this game as their defense dominates.  The Bengals offense will play some pretty sloppy football against the Denver D, and the Broncos offense won’t do much better.  However, QB Brock Osweiler will have a slightly better game than Bengals QB Andy Dalton.  Osweiler will toss the only TD of the game to WR Emmanuel Sanders, as Bengals WR A.J. Green is shut down against the No Fly Zone.  Broncos win in a defensive battle.

SNF

With the addition of RB Jay Ajayi, expect the Eagles to have a dominant run game, especially with Cowboys LB Sean Lee out.  The Cowboys offense will have a strong game as well, but it won’t be the same without RB Ezekiel Elliott.  Led by their running success and another huge game out of QB Carson Wentz, the Eagles will win in a high scoring Sunday Night divisional showdown.

MNF

The Seahawks defense will slow down Atlanta’s high-powered offense.  The Falcons offense has been very inconsistent this year, unlike last year when WR Julio Jones and QB Matt Ryan led them to be one of the best offenses in the league.  With the help of star TE Jimmy Graham, QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense will begin to get into a rhythm.  But it’s the Seahawks defensive success that will lead Seattle to another big home victory.

That’s all for my Week 11 Picks.  Feel free to comment with your thoughts.