Welcome to my NFL Week 10 Picks.  I went 8-5 last week, placing my overall record at 69-63.  How will I do in this week’s slate of games?  Read below and comment with your thoughts.

Teams on Bye: Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles

Note: In the images, the team on the top is the road team, and the team on the bottom is the home team.

Lock of the Week

The Texans offense did not look good last week without QB Deshaun Watson.  Expect that to continue.  Watson helped piece together a strong Texans offense, but without him, the Texans offense will struggle.  Expect the Rams front seven to shut down RB Lamar Miller and flush QB Tom Savage out the pocket often.  The Rams offense will have another big game led by RB Todd Gurley against a banged-up Houston front seven.  LA will win big as they dominate on both sides of the ball.

Upset of the Week (MNF)

The Panthers offense has not quite looked the same since WR Kelvin Benjamin was traded to Buffalo.  They will not find their groove in this game without Benjamin.  The Dolphins defense has been strong all year and they will slow Carolina down.  If the Dolphins O-Line can give QB Cutler time, the Dolphins will pull the upset carried by their defensive dominance, and the development of an offensive rhythm against the young, struggling Panthers secondary.

TNF (Posted to Twitter on Thursday Night before the game)

The Seahawks defense will be dominant against Cardinals new QB Drew Stanton and his receivers.  Seattle’s secondary has lots of talent and their front seven is unstoppable.  RB Adrian Peterson will also struggle against Seattle’s tough defense as they stuff the box.  Seattle’s offense won’t be at its best but the Seahawks will still pull off a victory.

Sunday’s Games

The Jets defense will struggle to cover a strong group of Bucs receivers, even without QB Jameis Winston and star receiver Mike Evans playing.  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to show the Jets that they should have signed him to a long-term deal.  And Rookie receiver Chris Godwin and young receiver Adam Humphries will get a chance to prove themselves while WR DeSean Jackson will have a big game as the #1 WR without Evans playing.  The Bucs will get their ground game going as well, rushing for 100 yards and at least 1 TD.  The Jets will do decent offensively but Jets QB Josh McCown will struggle against the Bucs tough defensive front and the Bucs will hold on for the win.

The Bills offense will dominate with TE Charles Clay back from a knee injury and WR Kelvin Benjamin making his Bills debut.  The Saints defense will be off their game in the cold in Buffalo and the Bills will feed on that.  However, the Saints will make it close with a strong offensive showing of their own.  They will get their RB duo going against a Bills defensive front missing standout DE Marcell Dareus.  Look for an especially big game out of RB Alvin Kamara.  But in the end, the Bills will pull away with the win in an offensive shootout.

The Steelers offense will continue to look good in this game.  JuJu Smith-Schuster will get some more snaps after his big game before the bye week.  Le’Veon Bell will also have a big game, rushing for 100-150 yards and 1 or more touchdowns.  He will tear apart Indy’s front seven.  The Colts offense will look decent against a struggling Steelers secondary but it still won’t be the same without QB Andrew Luck under center.  The Colts will be ‘out of luck’ and the Steelers will get their 7th win.

QB Marcus Mariota will get the Titans offense going now that they are at full health.  Led by star TE Delanie Walker and the WR duo of Eric Decker and Corey Davis, they will score 30+ points.  The Bengals offense will struggle without TE Tyler Eifert and WR John Ross banged-up.  But WR A.J. Green will have a bounce back week after getting ejected last week for fighting with Jags CB Jalen Ramsey.  He won’t be enough for the Bengals and the Titans will win big.

The Lions will struggle to produce offensively with TE Eric Ebron having a rough year and WR Kenny Golladay injured.  But the Browns will have an even worse day as no clear cut starting QB has emerged.  The Lions will win in a snoozer as their defense succeeds in shutting Cleveland down.

The Chargers defense has not had a good year.  QB Philip Rivers has led an elite offense into high scoring games but they have blown half of them due to sloppy defense.  The Jags offense will dominate against the Chargers D.  RB Leonard Fournette will have a big game in his return from a team suspension.  However, the young Chargers receiving corps will keep the game close even against a tricky Jaguars secondary.   In the end, the Jags will win in a close one.

The Vikings offense will thrive in this close game, even without QB Sam Bradford.  But QB Kirk Cousins and his Redskins offense will have an even better game, dominating against the Vikings strong secondary.  I have the Redskins winning in an OT thriller.  They have a wealth of receiving weapons and home field advantage to give them the edge.

The Packers have already struggled without QB Aaron Rodgers.  Green Bay will struggle enough again that the Bears will be able to pull an upset against them.  In Green Bay, the Packers annihilated the Bears but it will be different in Chicago without Rodgers.  Led by QB Mitch Trubisky and RB Jordan Howard, the Bears will win a low scoring game.  The Packers defense will try to shut them down but QB Brett Hundley and his offense won’t score enough to grab the victory.

The Giants’ will struggle to produce offensively since many of their top receiving weapons are injured.  But the 49ers offense will struggle to produce without WR Pierre Garcon and TE George Kittle and that will lead to a Giants victory in a defensive battle.  Without Garcon and Kittle, QB C.J. Beathard will struggle and the Giants will win on the road.

This tough NFC match-up will be a close one.  The Falcons will solve their offensive problems against a struggling Cowboys defense.  The Falcons RB duo will dominate and Julio Jones will put up another big game.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys will struggle with RB Ezekiel Elliott suspended and WR Dez Bryant banged-up.  Their offense that typically puts up 30+ points will be held to 24 and they will fall to Atlanta.

SNF

If TE Martellus Bennett plays, then the great TE duo of Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett will be too much for the Broncos secondary.  The Broncos have given up a lot of TDs to tight ends this season and the Pats duo could be considered the best in the league.  Either way, QB Tom Brady and the Pats offense will get into a good rhythm and keep one of the best defenses in the league off their game.

The Broncos will stay in this as RB C.J. Anderson rebounds from a minor injury last week and has a big game against the Patriots defensive front.  But Anderson won’t be enough as Broncos QB Brock Osweiler underperforms and suffers his 2nd loss in a row.

That’s all for my Week 10 Picks.  Feel free to comment with your thoughts.  This is my 499th post on this site.  Check back soon for a special 500th article.