NFL Week 6 Picks

Last week was my best one yet. After the terrible start I had, I began to lose hope about my record this season, but last week proved otherwise with a 9-5 finish. How will I fare in this crazy week? 

Before we get started, I’d like to make a point. I’m actually struggling to find good upsets to put on my site. I’m not going to get rid of upset picks, because the picks would be boring without them, but it’s not my problem. It’s the NFL’s problem. Some local radio stations were ranting yesterday about how the NFL’s ratings have gone down because of the lack of competition. They think the NFL is now focusing more on fantasy football than they are on real games, and nobody, except Pats diehards like me, want to sit around for 3-4 hours and watch a single football game. People spend they’re Sundays watching all the best stuff on NFL RedZone or NFL Sunday Ticket instead. I agree with this point. When you think about it, really, how many relevant match-ups are there this week? They didn’t think there are many. My thoughts on that for the games is definitely something I will mention throughout the article.  

Lock Of The Week

Seahawks, 13, Falcons, 9

I’m sorry Falcons believers, but especially against a tough Seahawks team that’s offense is now up and running, I just can’t see the Falcons winning this game. The Falcons have been really good, 4-1 to start the season. The defense has been great and the offense has done it’s job. But the Seahawks are division leaders, with an unstoppable defense, and a pretty good offense as well. They are not going to lose at home against a team that I originally though would go 3-13. I do not know what they did that has made them play so well, but a part of me thinks that their record is a fluke. If it’s not a fluke, than the dominance will not continue. Remember what happened last year? They started off undefeated and ended up going 8-8. The same thing will probably happen again, and in my opinion, the Falcons definitely won’t win this week.  

Upset Of The Week

Jaguars, 30, Bears, 16

I know this is kind of a lame upset, more of a close game, but remember what I said about the lack of competition? The Bears aren’t very good overall despite being favored. The Jags have had some tough match-ups against rising teams, and haven’t done great so far, but they have a lot of potential. I think if they take advantage of that, they should be able to beat the Bears. The offense showed a lot of promise last year, but it didn’t come through. Fans expect it to come through this year, and it’s only Week 6, fresh off a bye, so I’m still a believer. The Bears have nothing to stop them. They’re defense is terrible and their offense lacks the ability to counter-attack. The Jags should make this look easy and take the easy W.  

The Other Games

Patriots, 37, Bengals, 30

Tom Brady looked awesome last week on the road in Cleveland, so he should at least be able to lead the Pats to victory at home against the Bengals the way he’s playing. With Brady in the game, the offense is unbelievable, always able to find a way to score and dominate. Even against a good team with Tyler Eifert returning, the Pats will find a way to win. Even though they’re facing a tough defense and don’t have great defense themselves, the offense is great, Nink is back, and without Eifert, the Bengals still had serious depth issues at receiver. This is Brady and the Pats’ to win. Now they just have to do their job.  

Steelers, 27, Dolphins, 23

Pittsburgh has been unstoppable with Le’Veon Bell back, and the Dolphins aren’t going to be the first team to stop them. The Dolphins do have a decent defense and an okay offense, but it’s just not enough. The Steelers will give up some points, but this offense is not going down. The Steelers should get the win here, despite some minor Steelers insecurities and some decent Miami forces. It may be closer since Miami is at home but still, this is Pittsburgh’s to win.  

Bills, 10, 49ers, 9

The Bills have been on the rise, and despite some promise, the Niners have struggled lately. The Bills have better momentum going in to this game, and their defense has been pretty good, and should really be effective against the 49ers. The Niners meanwhile have shown some decent offense and defense, but so far this season, the defense hasn’t gone too far above and beyond. However, the Bills offense is without Sammy Watkins, so expect a low scoring game that the Bills just barely pull off after the Niners fail to produce enough points against the Bills strong secondary.  

Giants, 27, Ravens, 23

I know, Kenneth Dixon is back, but Justin Forsett is also on the outs. Steve Smith Sr. is also sitting this one out. The Giants may also be without Rashad Jennings again, and Shane Vereen is done for the year, but the Giants have some good defense. An improved secondary, and some decent (old and new) front seven attackers. The Ravens meanwhile, don’t have passable corners, and a lot of the pass rush is getting old and washed up, while C.J. Mosley, Timmy Jernigan and other young stars try to take it to the next level. The Giants are at home, and I think they already have a slight advantage over the Ravens, so they should take the win in a game with a little bit of everything from both teams.  

Titans, 31, Browns, 26

Seriously, the Browns are terrible. They have no offense after some injuries at QB and receiver. Even with a good running game, they cannot produce without a stable QB. The Browns are now in the same turmoil the Patriots were. The defense is not passable as usual, and they shouldn’t be able to win against a revamped Titans team that’s playing in an open division. The Titans offense will tear apart the Browns defense, and the Titans may let the Browns answer, but the Titans are at home, and they should score more, so since both defenses aren’t great, the Titans should take the win. 

Eagles, 29, Redskins, 23

The Eagles have been very impressive this season. Carson Wentz has surprised the whole league this year, and the revamped Redskins defense is already dinged up. I don’t know what sort of magic Doug Pederson and Howie Roseman are working up, but whatever it is, it’s effective. Expect the Redskins offense to do alright, but struggle against an underrated Eagles defense. The Redskins defense should also give up a lot of points, however, and the Eagles could take the win, even on the road. They have more momentum going in to the game, and the Redskins haven’t looked that great. I guess it’s so long to a decent Redskins team.  

Lions, 24, Rams, 20

The Lions are looking good going into this match-up. They beat the Eagles last week, they signed Justin Forsett, and Matthew Stafford and his receivers are ready to get to the Rams’ weak spot on defense, the secondary. Forsett will start at RB as well, hoping to disturb a tough pass rush. The Rams cannot compete with the offense the Lions have. The Rams can’t have much of an offense beyond Todd Gurley with no good QB, and Jared Goff, their best option, sitting out. Even against an easy defense like the Lions, the Rams will not be able to outscore Stafford’s offense. That will cost them, especially in a road game.  

Panthers, 34, Saints, 31

I know, the Panthers haven’t been great. The defense has really struggled, and the team just isn’t the same. But the Saints haven’t been any better. Not only has the defense been bad as usual, but the usually good offense has failed to produce. Even at home, against another struggling team, the Saints have had a pathetic season, and if they win this game of all games, one I originally saw as a lock, I would be shocked. Expect the Panthers to look like it’s 2015 again and cream the Saints. The Panthers still have some dominance in them. I’m starting to wonder if the Saints still do though. Two years ago, this would be a watchable game. Now, this game is worth throwing down the garbage shoot, and it’s all because competition is down in the NFL and the league is focusing too much on fantasy football.  

Raiders, 23, Chiefs, 19

The Chiefs defense is good, but the Raiders have been really good. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper are breaking out, the defense is better, and the Raiders have themselves a favorable home match-up. The Chiefs offense has struggled a little bit without Jamaal Charles. They’ve only been an okay team. That’s going to bite them in the back. The Raiders are in line to win this game. They just have to make sure not to blow a good opportunity to grab a 5th win. This is one of the few match-ups that has some competition, but is there really that much.  

Packers, 23, Cowboys, 19

Dak Prescott has been really good, in fact the entire Cowboys offense has. But Dallas has no defense to guard an even better offense, the Packers. Green Bay has some defense too. It may not be the best, but it’s better than the Cowboys’. Defense can win games, and the Packers have a better defense, and better overall team. They should be able to win this one over a Cowboys team that still has it’s weaknesses despite their glory and their division lead.  

Texans, 30, Colts, 26

The Texans are definitely highly favored in this match-up. The Colts defense isn’t that good, and I’m liking the new Texans offense, especially at home. The Colts are without Donte Moncrief, and their offense is definitely not favored against a Texans defense that’s still good, even without JJ Watt. So the Texans have a home match-up, they’re highly favored against the Colts, and they should definitely win this game over them.  

Cardinals, 23, Jets, 20

Carson Palmer is back this week, and that should make the Cardinals offense in for a big game. They will take care of the Jets D, and without Eric Decker, it’s hard for the Jets to counter-attack, especially against a tough Cardinals defense. The Jets don’t have a chance, and with Palmer back, this is another match-up without much competition. The Cardinals will rout the Jets. Even if the score doesn’t show it, the Cards will have control throughout the game.

Thursday Night’s Game

Broncos, 20, Chargers, 6

I’m pretty surprised that San Diego won after the roll that Denver was on, but since I’m a Pats diehard, I was pretty happy. Could this be the end of the Broncos’ reign? I sure hope so, because the Pats have a tough match-up in Denver late in the season. San Diego actually has a decent offense going, despite being without Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen, plus having no good defense. I thought Denver might just keep things up, be same old Denver. A great defense, and a decent offense, even with Trevor Siemian instead of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler. But no. The Chargers are doing well too, they’re taking some control in this division. 

For most of the first four weeks, the Patriots really impressed me. I was actually a little worried about Jimmy Garoppolo after some rough preseason performances. He had a tough match-up in Week 1. They didn’t have to change the game plan much, as Garoppolo is similar to Brady in play style, but did he have the talent to beat a tough Cardinals team? What happened was a pleasant surprise. He handled it like he had been the Pats quarterback as long as Brady has. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have had a rough start, and we’ll get to that and more surprise teams of the early season later.  

On to the Dolphins. This was clearly an easier match-up, and for most of the first half, Garoppolo took advantage of it. He threw for 3 TDs, until in the 2nd quarter, Garoppolo took a big hit, falling on his shoulder. He was in a lot of pain, enough that they had to pause the game. He was hurt, darn it. Jacoby Brissett came in. They only scored one TD, a Blount rushing TD, and the Pats scored a field goal. The Dolphins scored 24 points with Garoppolo out. 

Garoppolo was ruled out for Week 3, and Jacoby Brissett was in the spotlight. Either Brock Osweiler failed and the Texans defense struggled with J.J. Watt still potentially hurt, but Brissett and the Pats shut out the Texans on Thursday Night, 27-0. He looked like a different guy! The Patriots now had three great QBs! Or maybe just one awesome coach! The Pats were 3-0, and hoping for the best case scenario by winning in Week 4 against the Bills.  

Instead, Garoppolo was ruled out again, and Brissett’s Week 3 dominance proved to be a fluke. They were shut out 16-0. They didn’t even have a sense of urgency late in the game, when they needed to come back! Still, this is the Bills team that shocked the Cardinals, but the Cards are doing terrible, and the Bills went 0-2 in the first 2 weeks. This was simply the Patriots playing poorly.  

Thankfully, a new chapter began this week as Tom Brady returned. He annihilated the now Josh Gordon-less Browns. Rob Ninkovich was back, and Rob Gronkowski was back to full speed at tight end. Martellus Bennett looked great too. The Patriots were 3-1 without Brady, and they looked even better today. They could end up being as good as 13-3, 14-2, even 15-1 with him now back. The Patriots went through a lot without him. Look at how well they’ve done without that controversy. That is how they should do for the rest of the year. You’ll see more passing, more scoring and a secure QB position, especially now that Garoppolo’s proved he’s a reliable backup if Brady happens to fall later this season. Basically, expect more of the same in the near future.  

The Pats take on the Bengals this week. Will Tom Brady continue to thrive?

Now, going back to the past five weeks, let’s look at some good surprise teams and bad surprise teams of the first quarter of the season.  
Pleasant Surprises

Broncos (4-2)

This one is more unpleasant for Pats fans, but still, Trevor Siemian meant a lot more to this team than I thought. Siemian kept the offense going while the defense did its thing. The Broncos were going back to the playoffs the way he was playing. But then he got hurt. Paxton Lynch has just not been the same for the Broncos. I like Lynch, and I think he can do well enough to keep the starting job until Siemian is 100%, but not enough to keep the job (probably), or lead Denver to the playoffs. This is where I see Denver falling. If Gary Kubiak makes the wrong decision and give Lynch a chance to lead the team, Denver will fall out of contention. If Siemian’s not playing at his best anymore after he returns, Denver falls out of contention. It’s a very risky choice either way. Kubiak’s just going to have to make what he thinks will lead them to a better record. The defense will also continue to do well either way, but no offense means no wins, and the Raiders now could easily take over the division. Anyone could, it’s a tight division.

Raiders (4-1)

I was kind of expecting this one, but I’ve been especially impressed by their 4-1 record, and I thought the Jags and Bills would do the same thing. No, just Oakland, and maybe the Ravens. Derek Carr’s been awesome, Amari Cooper’s taking off, and the defense isn’t too shabby. The Raiders need to win this division. I don’t want the Broncos in the playoffs under any circumstances. Can the Raiders do it for us Pats fans? 

Eagles (3-1)

Going into the season, I thought the Eagles would be terrible. The offense didn’t look great, and the defense looked terrible. This season, the defense has been much better than expected, and Carson Wentz has led this team back to contention. Chip Kelly has not been missed. The Eagles made the right moves, now they’re on track to just keep winning. They have an easy match-up this week, and the only reason they lost last week was that Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense made magic again. They are such a sleeper team. Before this week, they had underperformed. But I’m very surprised to see the Eagles thrive so easily. 

Rams (3-2)

I expected the Rams to be terrible, especially with no Jared Goff. They’ve still looked pretty bad, but their record so far says otherwise. However, I think their wins were easier than you might think. The beat the Bucs, a Seahawks team that couldn’t start to their offense yet, and a washed up Cardinals team. Okay, the Seahawks and Cardinals may have been good wins, but beating the Bucs is an overrated win, and they would’ve lost if it weren’t for the severe weather. That’s just pathetic. Come on. Just how I expected the Rams to be by how they played, but not by their record. 

Falcons (4-1)

I am in shock with how well the Falcons have done. Sure, they started amazing last year and flopped, and they could still go 4-12, around what I had originally predicted for them, but a part of me now thinks the Falcons could be for real. The Panthers have not done as well as expected, and the Bucs and Saints aren’t great as usual. The Falcons have a good, secure division lead. I know things can change and it’s only Week 5, but I’m curious to see just how much these Falcons have in them.  

Unpleasant Surprises

Jaguars (1-3)

The Jags had a bye last week. They spent that bye feeling ashamed of themselves for failing to play well for 3 weeks in a row. It’s time to get to business. Seriously, this was supposed to be Jacksonville’s break through season. So far, they’re on pace to do worse than last year. The Jags need to step it up, and fast. If they take advantage this week, they could have a winnable match-up. Otherwise, we’ll see the same old Jags from 2015, even the dreaded 2014 and 2013 seasons. Will the Jags ever rise to playoff contention again?

Cardinals (2-3)

I’m pretty surprised that the Cardinals have done so badly. After a great season, you’d expect them to pick up where they left off, but no. Instead, they’ve looked like it’s 2014 all over again. Carson Palmer has struggled to find his groove, and the defense is a little out of shape. Is this the end of the Palmer-Fitzgerald era of this team? Even the Palmer-Floyd era, or Stanton-Fitzgerald era? Both Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are looking out of shape, and the rest of this team currently depends on them. That won’t last much longer.  

Lions (2-3)

Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones have looked impressive with Calvin Johnson gone, but overall, I thought this team would be a sleeper team, I still do. I’m just a little disappointed that they started the season 2-3. Golden Tate is doing nothing for the team, Ameer Abdullah is out, and the defense have been terrible. This team cannot be run without Abdullah and state around or at their best forever. For now, they have to try and do their best with what they have. The question is, will they?

Panthers (1-4)

I thought the Panthers were going to make another run at the Super Bowl. Did the loss of Josh Norman mean this much to them? The offense was also good last year without Kelvin Benjamin, and he’s back! What is up with this team? Was last year all just luck, a total fluke? So far this year, that’s what it looks like. It’s just not the same anymore to watch the Panthers. They don’t have it in them anymore, that’s what it seems like at least. Will they prove this season that these first few weeks are a fluke, or will they fall and let the Falcons take the torch in the NFC South.  

Buccaneers (2-3)

The Bucs we’re going to be bad anyways. I just thought otherwise. They almost beat the Rams, and they beat Carolina, which is an accomplishment despite Carolina’s terrible start. They are the reason for the Falcons only loss too. I think Jameis Winston and his offense are better this year, and the Bucs will finish with a decent record, better than in the recent past. But the defense has not bounced back like I expected. The defense needs to step it up or the Bucs won’t be any more than average this year. Nothing special, just slightly improved. I see more than that in this team.