It’s been a crazy season of NFL football so far. Who would have thought that the Broncos and Raiders would not only be tied for the AFC West lead, but also the AFC lead? While some of the trends we have seen thus far are bound to be broken this week, there should still be plenty of surprises. I’ll take a shot at predicting what those surprises will be as I present you with my Week 3 NFL picks. Last week, I went 10-6 as I failed to predict a handful of the upsets that occurred. My overall record is 16-16 (17-16 including this week’s Thursday night game), and I hope to improve on that today as we all relax and watch some football after a long week.

Lock of the Week

Don’t get me wrong, the Bengals should put up some very impressive games. This game is not one of them. I do not expect much at all out of QB Joe Burrow against this relentless Pittsburgh defense, especially as he’s missing one of his favorite targets in WR Tee Higgins. Meanwhile, I expect RB Najee Harris to put up his biggest performance yet against a rebuilding Bengals front seven in a comfortable win for the Steelers.

Upset of the Week

QBs Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert have both started their careers on a very strong note. As they face off frequently for years to come, it could make for some very exciting football. Mahomes and the Chiefs are always at least competitive, but I think they’ll just barely fall short in this one despite a strong performance from RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Last week showed us that the Chiefs secondary could be a cause for concern. I expect that pattern to continue this week as Herbert relies on WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to put up points in a favorable matchup.

The Other Games

	I think both these teams will have to rely on their defense in this one. Washington should be effective at shutting down Buffalo’s run game and apply pressure on QB Josh Allen. However, I think this Bills WR corps will be able to slightly outmatch a strong Washington secondary. Washington will keep it close, but fall just short against this well-balanced Bills defense in an OT thriller.
	This one will also be a defensive battle. While the Patriots may struggle to shut down RB Alvin Kamara, I don’t think they’ll allow QB Jameis Winston to put up many points. Even with some of his top options limited by a strong Saints defense, look for QB Mac Jones to edge out a victory for the Pats here.
	We still haven’t seen the full capability of this Browns offense, and I don’t think we’ll see it this week either. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has returned, but now WR Jarvis Landry is out. Nonetheless, QB Baker Mayfield should be able to put up enough points for a win here. The Bears should be able to compete, but the Browns D will apply plenty of pressure on rookie QB Justin Fields and CB Denzel Ward will be shadowing Chicago’s top option in WR Allen Robinson.
	The Lions offense has showed some signs of life throughout the season. I expect that pattern to continue this week. They’ll end up falling to 0-3 though, as QB Lamar Jackson should be able to dominate this Lions defense on the ground and under center.
	This should be a close game no matter who wins. However, I think it’s become clear that it is not impossible to shut down this star-studded Titans offense. I think this Colts defense will be up for the challenge, and that will allow QB Carson Wentz to lead the Colts to an overtime victory. He should most likely put up respectable numbers against this struggling Titans D.
	QB Trevor Lawrence has showed signs of upside, but overall he has been inaccurate and inconsistent thus far. I expect him to rely more on his running backs this week and that will make way for the Jags to put up a decent amount of points. This offense is still no match for Arizona’s though. Look for QB Kyler Murray and his strong supporting cast to dominate against a Jaguars defense that has struggled mightily.
	The Giants defense has failed to live up to expectations, but the Falcons D is on another level. As RB Saquon Barkley and WR Kenny Golladay continue to heal up, the Giants should be able to show off their true capabilities in a favorable matchup. Look for a breakout game by QB Daniel Jones as the Giants win this fairly easily.
	Between injured receivers and bad decisions, QB Zach Wilson has not looked good up to this point. Against a tough Broncos defense, these struggles are likely to persist. Meanwhile, QB Teddy Bridgewater and his receivers should continue to succeed as they outmatch the Jets secondary with ease.
	Even without QB Tua Tagovailoa, I do think the Dolphins make this a competitive game. CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones should effectively shut down Vegas’s top recievers, and this Miami offense will still show signs of life with QB Jacoby Brissett under center. QB Derek Carr should still be able to edge out the victory as he relies on star TE Darren Waller.
	This Vikings offense should put up a decent performance regardless of whether RB Dalvin Cook is active. It’s still no match for QB Russell Wilson and his receivers, who have thrived under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
	If there’s any defense that can stop QB Tom Brady and his star-studded supporting cast, it’s this Rams D. The Rams arguably have as much star power between DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey. The absence of WR Antonio Brown will make things even easier for LA. However, it’ll be a strong game out of QB Matthew Stafford that allows the Rams to hold on for victory.
	I think it’s fair to say Week 1 was a fluke for QB Aaron Rodgers. I’m expecting business as usual out of Rodgers and WR Davante Adams against a flawed Niners defense. The 49ers may be 2-0, but Green Bay is by far the toughest opponent they’ve faced. I don’t think QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be able to keep up with Rodgers here.
	The Cowboys did something last week that hasn’t happened in a long time: they won a game without scoring 30+ points. I think this one will pan out more like a traditional Cowboys victory as they get caught in a shootout with the Eagles. QB Jalen Hurts should continue to succeed against a Cowboys defense that is missing star edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence. Hurts is still no match for QB Dak Prescott’s high powered offense.

TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night)

This Texans offense looked surprisingly strong under QB Tyrod Taylor. I do not expect the same with rookie Davis Mills under center. Look for QB Sam Darnold to rely on his strong trio of receivers as he leads Carolina to a comfortable victory, continuing to prove that the Jets were the problem as opposed to Darnold himself.

That’s all for this week’s picks. Feel free to comment with your thoughts before you enjoy another week of jam-packed NFL action. You can also look forward to more NFL content on this site, including coverage of QB Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium.