2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks: Home Field Advantage won’t mean much

Thanksgiving is here, and so are my Thanksgiving Day NFL picks.  Last week, I went 10-4 in picks, putting my overall record at 104-70-1.  On Thanskgiving, the Lions and Cowboys will continue the day’s tradition of playing a home game.  But will their home field advantage matter that much?  Keep reading to find out what I think, and feel free to comment with your thoughts.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: 12:30 PM EST on CBS

The Bears offense may be bad, but the Lions defense just might be worse. After a strong first few games in which the offense led them, the Lions have fallen out of the playoff picture. Without QB Matthew Stafford, there’s little hope for a victory, even against an offense like Chicago’s. The Bears run game will thrive especially against Detroit. Meanwhile, the elite Chicago defense will prevent QB David Blough and his offense from scoring a single TD in a one-sided game.

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys: 4:30 PM EST on FOX


This will be the closest of the three NFL games today, but look for Dallas to pull ahead early and hold on for victory. The Bills defense is pretty good, but they’re no match for QB Dak Prescott and his trio of capable WRs. They may have trouble stopping RB Ezekiel Elliott too. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s WRs will outmatch a young Cowboys secondary. But the Cowboys will stop the run, preventing QB Josh Allen from scrambling as much as he usually does and allowing the Cowboys to hold on for victory.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: 8:20 PM EST on NBC


The Falcons did get RB Devonta Freeman back for this one, but they’re still missing TE Austin Hooper (injured) and WR Mohamed Sanu (traded). The defense was struggling as it is, but they’ve lost S Keanu Neal to an injury. Against one of the best offensive cores in the league, they will struggle. QB Drew Brees and the Saints will go all out here, as RB Alvin Kamara and TE Jared Cook have especially strong games. QB Matt Ryan will rely on WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley to keep the Falcons in the game. But it won’t nearly be enough to take down New Orleans, even in Atlanta.

That’s all for today’s picks.  Watch some football, eat some good food, spend time with family, and have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

I just came back from the Algonquin vs. Westborough Thanksgiving game, which Algonquin won 24-7.  Stay tuned for a link to my Harbinger article on that game alongside my other fall sports posts.

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