Selection Sunday has arrived, and while many have their national title picks in mind already, I am of the believe that the path it takes to get there makes a difference in who wins, especially in a year with so many top contenders. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona each finished the regular season with just 2 losses, and Florida, UConn, Houston, and Iowa State also showed flashes of elite performance. While I enjoy picking the bracket that does release, I’ve always been interested in the selection committee’s process to get there. In this post, I’ve made my best projection of how their process will turn out and how that sets up some of the top teams on the bracket.

Duke earns the top overall seed on this bracket. With an ACC title and wins over Michigan, Kansas, Arkansas, and Florida under their belt, they have the best resume in college hoops, and are led by NBA prospect and likely Naismith Player of the Year Cameron Boozer. In the 8/9 game are two teams with very different paths to March. TCU built their resume early with a win over Florida in November, and added to it with an additional big win over Iowa State. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have been on a bit of a hot streak down the stretch on the back of senior guard Bruce Thornton.

On the other side of the bracket is UConn, who fell to a 2 seed after some late season Big East losses, with the Big East title game loss to St. John’s serving as a dagger. In Alex Karaban’s final year, they’ll still be very motivated to make one last run. Standing in their way are Georgia and VCU, who both had solid but unremarkable seasons. 

Illinois heads to Buffalo as the #3 seed here. After battling with Michigan State and Iowa State for a 2 seed, their second loss of the season to Wisconsin left the Illini here. BYU has shown at times they can compete with the best, but their depth behind AJ Dybantsa is thin with numerous injured players on the roster including big-time scorer Richie Saunders.

Texas Tech just hangs on to a 4 seed despite the loss of JT Toppin. Christian Anderson has settled in as the top dog here, and while there have been low lows, the resume in Toppin’s absence includes an upset of Iowa State in Ames. The conference tourney was tough for the Red Raiders, which could make them prone to an early exit, whether it be against a mid-major or 5-seeded Alabama, who’s had their own inconsistencies. The Crimson Tide miss out on a 4 seed by a small amount, but they haven’t exactly had many statement wins since the top 16 reveal in February, and they were also upset by Ole Miss in the SEC quarterfinals.

I have Houston winning a tight race for the final #1 seed. The Cougars, unlike Florida, made the conference title game in a tough Big 12. Unlike UConn, they were also able to take Arizona down to the wire in said title game. Whether they can finish the job against other top teams remains to be seen, but playing in Houston once the Sweet 16 rolls around should certainly help. Saint Louis and St. Mary’s, however, will not make this easy. The Billikens haven’t quite looked the same down the stretch as they did to start 2026. Regardless of schedule though, it’s not easy to win 18 games in a row, and Saint Louis did just that from December to early February following their November loss to Stanford. St. Mary’s also played very consistently throughout the year, with just one loss to a non-tourney team. 

The Gators land the 2 seed in this region down in Tampa. With a dominant season in SEC play that was cut slightly short by a semifinal loss, I fully expect a deep run. However, their Round of 32 game could be a tough test, especially given UCLA’s recent run in the Big Ten tournament. UCLA managed to make it all the way to the semifinals even though Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent got banged up along the way. If they’re at full strength, they could be dangerous.

Purdue has mostly been known in recent weeks for their brutal home losses, but this is still a team with a strong overall resume and one of the most experienced cores in the country. A 5-0 neutral site record (before Sunday’s B1G championship) is promising for March. With an incredibly deep roster, Louisville could pose a difficult challenge in the Round of 32 though.

With a Big East title under their belt, I have St. John’s moving up to the 4-line after being left out of February’s top 16 reveal. Saturday night marked their second win of the season over UConn, who despite their inconsistencies is an elite team. They’ll be paired in Portland with Tennessee, who had mixed results on a tough SEC schedule.

Note: This bracket assumes South Florida to be the American Conference champion. If Wichita State defeats South Florida, they would take over this 11 seed.

Many have Michigan as the #2 overall team, but Arizona’s best wins are even stronger as they took down Florida and UConn in non-conference play before defeating Iowa State and Houston twice each. They headline this West Region out in San Diego, and I can’t imagine them having too tough a time with anyone they’re matched up with here for this first weekend.

The lone 2 seed Arizona has yet to play is Michigan State, who lands on the other side of this region. It’s been another Tom Izzo masterclass in Lansing, as he took an underwhelming roster and coached them to 25+ wins. Jeremy Fears Jr. has had a breakout season, emerging as an All-American candidate. It’s hard to beat Izzo in March, especially in the early rounds. If anyone can do it, it might be a revived Villanova squad under new coach Kevin Willard.

Gonzaga manages to land in Portland as the West’s third seed. This represents a massive home court advantage for the Bulldogs, but the team has been inconsistent since Braden Huff’s injury and will hope to have him back to start out, if not by the Sweet 16. Health could be a big factor in whether they get past the underrated teams in their region like Wisconsin and South Florida.

Arkansas and Kansas have met frequently in March, but with a lot of SEC schools on the 4/5 fringe, this was the way to avoid an SEC on SEC second round game. However, a meeting is not guaranteed given tough first round matchups for both squads. Kansas must make sure that Darryn Peterson is on the same page as the rest of the team if they want to avoid being upset by Akron.

Despite being bumped down to #3 overall, Michigan still lands in the Midwest and manages to secure an early round trip to Buffalo. They’re paired with Mountain West champion Utah State and hot-and-cold ACC foe NC State, neither of which pose too serious of threats to the Wolverines.

Iowa State could be another contender for a deep run out of this region. The Cyclones were on the 1 line for most of the year before a 4-4 finish to the Big 12 regular season. However, Iowa State played some of their best basketball in the conference tournament, beating Texas Tech by 20+ before falling just short to Arizona on a buzzer beater. This team was perhaps seconds away from moving on to the Big 12 title game, and I highly suspect they would have won just how Arizona did. Kentucky could pose a challenge, but it depends on which version of Kentucky the Cyclones get. The Wildcats lost 5 of their final 7 regular season games before making a run to the SEC quarterfinals. If they continue to struggle, it’s possible Iowa advances to face their cross-state rival.

I expect Michigan and Iowa State to eventually pull away from the rest of this region. 3-seed Nebraska is hard to trust given their 6-6 finish to the season, and 6-seed North Carolina isn’t exactly in shape to give them too tough a test with Caleb Wilson done for the year. Perhaps 31-1 Miami of Ohio could make a run here, but they don’t quite match up with those top two seeds.

Vanderbilt have been tabbed by many as another upset-prone team, though their biggest loss of the year came to Oklahoma. Virginia has been more consistent, but their lack of wins over elite competition gives me pause when it comes to a deep run for the Cavaliers. Northern Iowa could be another team to watch out for here due to a roster that’s unusually experienced for a mid-major.

If it weren’t for a bid thief in the MAC and an impressive run for San Diego State in the Mountain West, this would be one of the weakest bubbles in my time making brackets. Given those recent happenings, there were a few close calls to make. New Mexico, despite their loss to San Diego State, still had some good moments in non-conference play that were worth considering. SMU was firmly in the tournament for most of the season, but a homestretch ACC collapse costs them their spot on the bracket in my projection. Texas and San Diego State were also tough decisions to enter into the tournament given SDSU’s less than stellar start to the season and Texas’ 18-14 record. However, I give them the slight edge over New Mexico, Dayton, and SMU headed into Selection Sunday.

Below is a look at the projected bracket in its entirety:

Stay tuned for more March Madness coverage once the committee’s official bracket is revealed!