At long last, the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl. When frachise QB Tom Brady left the team in 2020, it appeared a long rebuild would be ahead. Nobody was going to live up to Brady’s standards, but even finding the quarterback of the future took time. It took a 4-13 season and the 3rd overall pick for the Patriots to finally get their guy. While it took time for the Pats to build around him, it’s pretty clear that Drake Maye is the QB of New England’s future. This year, with the right supporting cast around him, Maye led the Pats to a major bounceback season. However, Maye runs into one of the toughest teams they have faced yet: the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks took the opposite approach of the Patriots: they have built up a very strong supporting cast over the past few years, then went out this offseason to upgrade from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold at quarterback. Which team will prevail on the biggest stage? Read below to hear more on my thoughts about the case for each team and my final game prediction.

The Case for the Patriots

After a rough couple of years, the Patriots may have made more changes this offseason than any other team. They fired head coach Jerod Mayo after one season, bringing in former Pats linebacker Mike Vrabel to reinstall “The Patriot Way” that had been established under Bill Belichick all while making better connections with his players. The common thread between this team and the Patriots dynasty came through Vrabel’s offensive coordinator hire, Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has installed some of the same trickery that worked so well in Tom Brady’s last few Super Bowls. However, the Pats wouldn’t have done so well without Robert Kraft’s willingness to spend in free agency. The team most notably added wide receiver Stefon Diggs, defensive tackle Milton Williams, linebacker Robert Spillane, and cornerback Carlton Davis. They managed to add an additional two starters through the draft, selecting left tackle Will Campbell and running back Tre’Veyon Henderson in the first two rounds.

While it took a few weeks, it became clear with time that this Patriots roster was built for the playoffs. The team finished with the #2 scoring defense in all of football. While the run defense faced some midseason struggles with Milton Williams on IR, come playoff time the Pats defense had returned to peak form. The defense has allowed just 8.7 points per game in these playoffs, and the team has especially excelled in stopping the run over the recent stretch.

QB Drake Maye also put up an incredible season, leading the charge on offense with the help of his new #1 receiver in Diggs. He came just one vote away from beating out Matthew Stafford for MVP, but he has the chance to win the more important MVP award tonight if he leads the Pats to victory. While Maye has struggled a bit in these playoffs, the Pats have played against three of the top 10 defenses during this playoff run. The Seahawks, being the #1 scoring defense, will present Maye with another challenge. However, if Maye can stay mistake free and establish the passing game early, I think the Pats will be in good shape. On the defensive side of the ball, they’ll need to get in QB Sam Darnold’s head, possibly similar to what they did to Texans QB C.J. Stroud a few weeks ago.

The Case for the Seahawks

The Seahawks have built up a talented roster over the last few years. Between an offense highlighted by RB Kenneth Walker and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and one of the strongest defensive rosters in the entire NFC, the team appeared to be a QB away from success.

Not everyone was sure how far Sam Darnold would take them, but he has certainly held his own over the course of this season. This is, however, the biggest stage he’s played on in his entire career. Additionally, Darnold has thrown double digit interceptions in every season he has started at QB, and his 14 interceptions this season are not that much better than his numbers from his days on the Jets and Panthers.

Darnold was helped significantly over the course of the season by the breakout of his #1 wide receiver in Smith-Njigba. JSN was one of the best receivers in all of football this year, and put up with a massive performance in the NFC Championship game (10 receptions, 153 yards, and a score). He was additionally helped by the Seahawks D, which finished as the #1 scoring defense on the back of defensive lineman Leonard Williams and a secondary including standout corners Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon that may rival the classic Legion of Boom. Overall though, Darnold looked pretty good this season outside of the occasional turnover problems.

If the Seahawks want to win this game, they’ll have to keep Pats QB Drake Maye in check. This can be done by winning the battle of the trenches and putting him under pressure, as the Patriots o-line may be improved, but it is far from perfect. The Seahawks don’t necessarily have the big name edge rushers that the Texans and Chargers had in their efforts to stop Maye, but if DeMarcus Lawrence can play more like the prime version of himself, that would make a significant difference. They’ll also have to take advantage of the fact that the Pats often struggle to defend the tight end. Tight end A.J. Barner has made a significant impact in the receiving game this season, and will need to be relied on alongside Smith-Njigba in this one.

Super Bowl Prediction

Projected Patriots Scores: WR Stefon Diggs receiving TD, WR Mack Hollins receiving TD, CB Marcus Jones pick six, Andy Borregales field goal (x2)

Projected Seahawks Scores: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving TD, WR Cooper Kupp receiving TD, TE A.J. Barner receiving TD, Jason Myers field goal

The Seahawks are definitely one of the best offenses the Patriots have faced, and while I do trust the Pats defense to limit Kenneth Walker and the Seahawks run game, Darnold will lean on Smith-Njigba and Barner to allow the Seahawks to score their fair share. The difference in this game will be in two things: can the Pats defense force turnovers to make up for big drives by Seattle, and which version of Drake Maye will we see?

While the Seahawks are the best scoring defense in football, I don’t see Maye feeling the pressure as much as he did most of these playoffs. The strength of the Seahawks D is in their run stuffing and their secondary, not as much the pressure they apply to quarterbacks. This should play to Maye’s benefit, as he is able to succeed no matter which of his receivers are open. In addition, the Patriots have caught five interceptions these playoffs, and I would expect to see more against Darnold. Therefore, I have the Pats coming out victorious in a close one here.

Feel free to comment with your thoughts, and I hope you all enjoy the game!