We are about one month out from Selection Sunday, and as they have over the last several years, the selection committee will be revealing their top 16 today at 12:30 PM. I have made it tradition to make a bracketology right before the reveal, predicting their top 16 as well as the rest of the field. That is what I’m here today to write about. Keep reading below to see my current field of 68.

Note: An asterisk represents a team that would receive an autobid to the tournament

South Region

The Top Four

1. Auburn (22-2, #1 overall)*
2. Kansas (17-7, #8 overall)
3. Ole Miss (19-6, #12 overall)
4. UCLA (18-7, #14 overall)

To me, Auburn is still the far and away top team in the country. Their only losses are to Duke and Florida, teams that also have 1-seed caliber resumes. Led by big man Johni Broome, this team just keeps rolling. 

Kansas certainly has work to do in late game situations, and they’ve lost three Saturdays in a row. However, they’ve quietly strung together one of the nation’s strongest resumes, beating who they’re supposed to beat and picking up big wins over Duke and Iowa State. This team has the talent to make a deep run, and the chemistry, while imperfect, is far from a disaster. If they can get a little more offensively from guys like Dajuan Harris, K.J. Adams, and A.J. Storr, they may have the highest ceiling in the nation.

Ole Miss is one of the more underrated teams in college hoops. They have yet to lose to a team outside my projected tournament field, and they achieved a feat nobody else has this season when they upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Add their road win over Arkansas to that and this team has a top 15 resume for sure.

UCLA was a close call in terms of cracking the top 16, but winning 7 of their last 8 has certainly contributed. That plus big wins over Gonzaga and Arizona in December is enough to push them over the edge.

The Rest of the Field

5. Kentucky (17-7)

6. Creighton (18-7)

7. Illinois (17-8)

8. Vanderbilt (17-7)

9. Baylor (15-9)

10. San Diego State (16-6)

11. UNC (14-11) / Wake Forest (18-7)

12. Arkansas State (18-7)*

13. Lipscomb (18-8)*

14. American (16-10)*

15. Utah Valley (17-7)*

16. Bryant (16-10)* / Merrimack (14-10)*

Kentucky just barely fell short of the top 16 in this projection, but in this hypothetical bracket, they would have a chance to prove me by beating UCLA in the Round of 32. 

Vanderbilt has made a big jump for me in recent weeks. The loss to Drake is looking less glaring given their 23-2 record. In addition, they’ve defeated Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas all within the last month. On the other side of the coin, Baylor has fallen down my bracket; they’ve lost 3 of their last 5 and their win/loss record is suffering. Will Norchad Omier, Jeremy Roach, and V.J. Edgecombe do enough to keep them alive?

Despite their 14-11 record, UNC just barely makes the cut for me. They got revenge on the worst team they lost to in Pittsburgh, and R.J. Davis has still been phenomenal. They’ll have a First Four ACC faceoff with Hunter Sallis and the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest won the first edition of this matchup, can they do it again?

Arkansas State stands out to me as a potential sneaky mid-major. They upset Memphis and have followed that up with an excellent season in the Sun Belt.

Midwest Region

The Top Four

1. Florida (21-3, #4 overall)
2. Houston (20-4, #5 overall)*
3. Purdue (19-6, #11 overall)
4. Marquette (19-6, #16 overall)

The Gators are one of the biggest pleasant surprises of the season. Walter Clayton Jr. has been near unstoppable, and the backcourt trio with Alijah Martin and Will Richard is among the nation’s best. They followed up a 13-0 start with an 8-3 record in SEC play that most recently includes a win at Auburn.

Houston started their season 4-3, but the team has won 16 of their last 17 to secure their spot amongst the best teams in the country. After a relatively easy start to their Big 12 schedule, they made a big statement when J’Wan Roberts led them past Kansas for a double OT road victory and have kept up that level of play since.

Purdue has had a few inconsistencies, dropping games to Ohio State and Penn State. However, they’re still one of the best teams in their conference, led by big steps up from Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. They have the talent and the wins to be ranked this high.

One of the highlights of Marquette’s season was upsetting the above Purdue team. If you take out their 1-1 split with Big East rival Xavier, they’ve also avoided losses against teams outside my projected tournament field.

The Rest of the Field

5. Gonzaga (19-7)

6. Texas Tech (19-5)

7. Memphis (21-4)*

8. Louisville (19-6)

9. Mississippi State (17-7)

10. Dayton (17-8)

11. Texas (15-10) / Utah State (21-3)

12. High Point (22-5)*

13. McNeese (19-6)*

14. Akron (19-5)*

15. Cleveland State (18-8)*

16. Norfolk State (16-8)*

I’m higher on Gonzaga than most bracketologists, mostly because I believe in this team’s talent at their full potential. They looked amazing to start the year, routing Baylor and going on to beat Indiana. A WCC rough patch has stuck out like a sore thumb on their resume, but they will have the shot to come back and beat all the teams they lost to (they already got revenge on Oregon State!)

Gonzaga’s higher placement pushes down teams like Texas Tech, but that’s not a knock on the Red Raiders at all. This team has been a surprise contender in the Big 12, but they started the season a little slow. Is this merely a hot streak or is Texas Tech here to stay?

I’m also slightly lower on Mississippi State, but the loss to Butler sticks out like a sore thumb to me. Josh Hubbard has been great, but I fear this team may be upset prone if seeded higher.

Dayton, Texas, and Utah State are all on the right side of the bubble to me. Dayton has had a mixed bag of A10 results, but their strong non-conference performance still holds weight in my book. This is a very talented Texas team, so I think they’ll get some extra chances to prove themselves compared to some of the more surprising contenders. Utah State is a bit higher in a lot of people’s fields, but the UC San Diego loss still sticks out and they haven’t really picked up a major win to offset that. It will be hard without any true frontrunner in the Mountain West. Perhaps the Aggies’ best path is through an autobid, but they still make the cut for me here.

There are a lot of strong mid-majors in this region; High Point and McNeese could be threats for serious runs and even Akron and Cleveland State have peaked at the right time. Can they keep it up?

West Region

The Top Four

1. Alabama (21-3, #2 overall)
2. Iowa State (19-5, #7 overall)
3. Texas A&M (19-5, #10 overall)
4. Michigan State (19-5, #15 overall)

Alabama made a run to the Final Four last year, and with Mark Sears back from that team, they have been one of the most dominant squads in the nation. Among the best points on their resume are key wins over teams like Houston, Texas A&M, and Illinois. 

Iowa State has been just 4-4 in their last 8, but their strong start to the season has kept them high up on the seed list. They certainly have the talent to stay in this spot: Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey are two of the most well-rounded guards in the nation, excelling both offensively and defensively. I have no doubt they’ll finish the season as strong as they started it.

Wade Taylor IV has brought the Aggies to a new level this year. Like last year, it was a slow start, as they dropped their first game to UCF, but since then A&M’s resume has been near spotless, with their biggest win coming against Purdue.

Michigan State’s another team that’s seen their ranking drop a bit the last couple weeks after losing 3 of their last 4, but they still make the cut here for me. I’d argue their tough schedule has contributed to their losses, and Tom Izzo has kept them in every one of these games. The team still holds quality wins over teams like UNC and Illinois.

The Rest of the Field

5. St. John’s (21-4)*

6. Wisconsin (19-5)

7. Oregon (17-8)

8. Clemson (20-5)

9. Arkansas (15-9)

10. St. Mary’s (22-4)*

11. New Mexico (21-4)*

12. UC San Diego (21-4)*

13. Northern Colorado (19-7)*

14. Central Connecticut State (18-6)*

15. Yale (15-6)*

16. Towson (17-9)*

A weak non-conference resume has prevented St. John’s from solidifying themselves as a top 4 seed. Wins over UConn and Xavier (twice) have kept them close. Meanwhile, to me Wisconsin would have needed to win a couple more games outside their conference to be higher than this.

Arkansas has climbed their way back to the 9 line in my book. Earlier this week they avenged their worst loss when they got payback against LSU. That makes their 4th win in the last 6. 

A big season from Donovan Dent has also forced 21-win New Mexico onto the bracket. Would they be a 21-win team in a Power Five conference though? Probably not.

This is amongst the weaker regions for mid-majors, but just behind the final at-large bids is #12 UC San Diego, who has recently reclaimed the Big West lead. At this rate, there is a world where both them and fellow 20-win squad UC Irvine both make the tournament. 

East Region

The Top Four

1. Duke (21-3, #3 overall)*
2. Tennessee (20-5, #6 overall)
3. Arizona (17-7, #9 overall)
4. Missouri (18-6, #13 overall)

Cooper Flagg has been just about everything Duke could have expected. It’s led the Blue Devils to their best season since at least 2019. The few games they’ve lost have been to fellow blue bloods Kansas and Kentucky and their biggest ACC competition in Clemson. The duo of Flagg and Tyrese Proctor have led Duke to roll through most of the ACC season and pick up huge non-conference wins over Auburn and Arizona.

Tennessee was among the final remaining undefeated teams in the country after a dominant non-conference stretch that included wins over Baylor and Illinois. Their SEC season hasn’t been quite to the same standard, but they’ve certainly had their moments, and they’ve taken care of business against non-tournament teams. Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler have been great, and they’ll have to hope the depth behind them can continue to perform as well.

The Wildcats concerned many fans when they dropped 4 out of 5 games to end November, but this is a very different team than 3 months ago. Arizona has quickly climbed their way back to elite status, highlighted by a thrilling win over Iowa State thanks to a Caleb Love half-court buzzer beater.

Missouri is another SEC squad who has stacked up a pretty strong resume as they have thrived in the face of tough competition. They made a statement by beating Kansas before conference play and have followed it up with a 7-4 SEC record.

The Rest of the Field

5. UConn (17-7)

6. Michigan (19-5)*

7. Maryland (19-6)

8. Oklahoma (16-8)

9. Nebraska (16-9)

10. BYU (16-8)

11. Drake (23-2)*

12. George Mason (20-5)*

13. Jacksonville State (17-8)*

14. Southern (15-9)*

15. Chattanooga (18-8)*

16. SE Missouri State (16-10)* / Omaha (16-11)*

Much like Gonzaga, my belief in UConn’s talent has me placing them higher than most bracketologists. They’ve also played much of their Big East season without first-year forward Liam McNeeley, who dropped 38 on Creighton in his second game back to lead UConn to a much-needed victory. With McNeeley back healthy, this team has the ceiling to beat anyone, but will their defense hold up?

Michigan is another team that slides down my rankings for teams like UConn and Gonzaga, but they could be a threat to make a run anyways. This B1G powerhouse has been firing on all cylinders, highlighted by the success of their bigs Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. The bigs have thrived under coach Dusty May, who coached Goldin at FAU the last two years.

Drake is in an interesting position. Their easy conference schedule makes it difficult to see if they’d consistently succeed against high level competition, but their 23-2 record has to hold some weight. George Mason is in a similar situation, with a strong record atop the A10 but a weak non-conference resume. They at least have Dayton and VCU in their conference.

Whoever wins the C-USA and SoCon usually poses a threat in the tourney, and we have tight battles in both conferences this year. However, I don’t really see the vision with the current leaders (Jacksonville State and Chattanooga). I see it as pretty likely other teams emerge in the conference tourneys, but if Jacksonville State or Chattanooga gets hot at the right time, they could be interesting upset picks. 

First Four Out: Boise State, Indiana, Kansas State, TCU

These teams have all had a roller coaster of a season, but their rough losses have outweighed their big wins. If they can pick up a few more wins against the teams above them down the stretch, they’ll have a chance to sneak into the field. Kansas State in particular has been on a tear of late, can they keep their winning ways going down the stretch and force their way into the field? Led by Coleman Hawkins and Dug McDaniel, they certainly have the talent to do so.

Feel free to comment with your thoughts on all of the above. We’ll have to see how the committee’s opinions compare to my own.