Dynasties are fun when you’re rooting for the team that has one. I feel very lucky that the greatest NFL dynasty ever was here in New England and I had the chance to live through it.

However, in the last few years, the Patriots have faded into irrelevance and a new dynasty has taken their place: the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have won 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls, and made it to 4 of them. They have made the AFC Championship every season since Patrick Mahomes became starting QB, and only Joe Burrow’s Bengals and Brady’s Patriots have defeated them in that game.

Over the last few years, many AFC teams have built up their rosters in hopes of a Super Bowl, but have continued to fall short to the Chiefs. The Bengals may have beat the Chiefs once, but they fell short the next year. The Bills seemingly lost their window to compete with the Chiefs.

Now, teams like the Texans, Dolphins, and Ravens are on the rise, but the Chiefs may stand in their way. Can any of them get over the hump and beat out KC for a Super Bowl? Keep reading to find out what I think. Let’s first start off with my divisional predictions.

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins (13-4, #1 seed in AFC)
2. New York Jets (9-8)
3. Buffalo Bills (8-9)
4. New England Patriots (6-11)

The Bills managed to win this division last year, but the reign of the Bills atop the AFC East has seemed to have run its course. The era of WR Stefon Diggs here in Buffalo that started this 4-year stretch of dominance is over. In addition to losing Diggs, the Bills lost many big names in the secondary such as CB Tre’Davious White, S Jordan Poyer, and S Micah Hyde. QB Josh Allen cannot get this team back to the playoffs on his own.

I have the Dolphins taking over as the team to beat here. QB Tua Tagovailoa took a significant step forward this past season and earned himself an extension in Miami. The WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will help him continue to thrive, and an already strong defense has continued to add big names. This is increasingly becoming a very well rounded team.

The Jets and Patriots should improve upon their previous seasons, but not significantly enough to make the playoffs. I do not see QB Aaron Rodgers being a massive difference maker in his age 40 season, but he should get the Jets a couple more wins. Despite an anemic offense, the Pats came very close in many of their losses last season, so even a slight offensive improvement could get them some wins with their defense keeping them in most games.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-6, #4 seed in AFC)
2. Cleveland Browns (11-6, #5 seed in AFC)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7, #7 seed in AFC)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

This will once again be one of the best and most competitive divisions in the NFL. Each of these four teams have significant strengths. Mike Tomlin can never seem to have a losing season. The Browns fielded one of the league’s best defenses last year and most of its personnel is back again this year. The Bengals have what’s arguably the league’s best QB-WR-WR combo in Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, but their defense could be a weak point.

I still feel the Ravens are more well rounded than any other team here though, which inclines me to pick them to win the division. Like Cleveland, they’ve had one of the better defenses in recent years. Like Cincinnati, they have a great quarterback (Lamar Jackson) with some reliable weapons around him (Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry, etc). Like Pittsburgh, they have a seasoned veteran and long time winner at head coach in John Harbaugh. This team has the pieces to not only win the division, but also make a run in the playoffs. Their 6 losses come partially due to the fact that this division is more competitive than most others. Easy wins are nonexistent here in the AFC North.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans (12-5, #3 seed in AFC)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-10)
4. Tennessee Titans (6-11)

After a surprise division win, the Texans added a big name at wide receiver in Stefon Diggs. Given Diggs helped the Bills in several playoff runs, the combo of Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell should allow QB C.J. Stroud to flourish and strike fear in opposing secondaries. The Texans defense could use work, but I think an improved record is a fairly safe bet for them.

Despite a collapse last season, I still have the Jaguars in a close second here, just barely missing the playoffs. I feel last year’s struggles are partially due to the fact that WR Christian Kirk went down leaving Calvin Ridley on an island most games. With Ridley being swapped out for two capable receivers in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., I suspect defenses will have a harder time figuring out how to navigate this iteration of the Jags WR corps. This is a big year for QB Trevor Lawrence to show the world what he’s capable of, and I’m confident he will do so. If only this AFC wasn’t so competitive.

On the other hand, I am hesitant to put the Colts or Titans all that high as we cannot be sure how much Will Levis and Anthony Richardson will develop this year. I don’t exactly see either developing enough in one year to be a game changer, so at best they will be defined by their surroundings. Both of these teams have decent offensive builds, but not quite up to par with AFC playoff standards, hence their below .500 records.

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5, #2 seed in AFC)
2. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, #6 seed in AFC)
3. Denver Broncos (5-12)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

On paper, the Chiefs look even stronger than last year, adding Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy to an improving WR room that will ideally help QB Patrick Mahomes look even better. It’s a tough schedule for the Chiefs though, and it’s unlikely they make it through this season without some bumps in the road.

In my book, the 2023 Chargers were simply a poorly coached team. While the offense did lose some big names, QB Justin Herbert can make just about any receiver look good, and the youth movement could actually be good for them. In addition, with Brandon Staley out the door, I expect better execution out of a defense that still contains big names like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and Eric Kendricks.

The Broncos and Raiders do not nearly have the QB talent to compete with Mahomes and Herbert, leaving them in this division’s basement. The Broncos at least have some notable defensive talent such as star CB Patrick Surtain II, and that should keep them in a decent number of games. The Raiders don’t exactly inspire confidence on either side of the ball, and I think they could be on a fast track to the #1 pick (or at least a head-on battle for it).

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5, #2 seed in NFC)
2. Dallas Cowboys (11-6, #5 seed in NFC)
3. Washington Commanders (4-13)
4. New York Giants (3-14)

It wouldn’t be the NFC East if there wasn’t a new division champion every year. It is a pivotal year for the Cowboys with QB Dak Prescott and edge rusher Micah Parsons due for extensions soon after WR CeeDee Lamb received his. However, I have the Eagles bouncing back from a late 2023 collapse. The addition of RB Saquon Barkley will add a new dimension to the offense. Meanwhile, I think the secondary will make the adjustments necessary to maximize the talent they have at the position (the services of rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean should also help matters). The Cowboys should still snag a wild card here though.

It was a rough 2023 for the Commanders and Giants, and I don’t really see either team making much noise this year either. It will take time for the Commanders to develop QB Jayden Daniels, and it doesn’t help matters that his surroundings are less than stellar. The Giants are arguably even further from contention. They have a giant (pun intended) question mark at QB that may only be solved by a high 2025 draft pick. I could be wrong, but I don’t think rookie receiver Malik Nabers is enough to save QB Daniel Jones from irrelevance.

NFC North

1. Chicago Bears (10-7) (#3 seed in NFC)
2. Detroit Lions (8-9)
3. Green Bay Packers (7-10)
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-12)

This will be a tight division for sure. With strong rosters all around, it’ll primarily come down to QB play. I don’t expect QBs Jared Goff or Jordan Love to match their performances from down the stretch in 2023, which could cause the Lions and Packers to take steps back on offense. The Lions may have a lot of offensive talent around Goff, but their defense still gives me pause. On the contrary, the Packers should be a strong defensive team, but without a true WR1 I do not see Love developing much further than he did a year ago.

Meanwhile, the Bears, who were already 7-10 with QB Justin Fields, took generational talent Caleb Williams #1 overall and bolstered the offense around him by adding WR Keenan Allen, WR Rome Odunze, and RB D’Andre Swift. Even a marginal offensive improvement should allow the Bears to compete for this division, and with the Lions and Packers falling behind, I have them winning it. The Vikings won’t really be a factor here without competent QB play, and their defense concerns me as well.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints (9-8) (#4 seed in NFC)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
4. Carolina Panthers (5-12)

The Saints bring back one of the most talented defenses in the league, so I think they’ll hold their own here despite offensive shortcomings. I don’t really see anybody else in this division outpacing them. The Buccaneers would need an encore of what QB Baker Mayfield did last year (something tells me that won’t happen). The Falcons had a shot to take over here after signing QB Kirk Cousins, but their poor draft selections will likely catch up to them.

The Panthers are likely to remain in the basement here. While I do expect slight improvement from QB Bryce Young and the offense, it won’t be enough to dethrone anybody else in this division.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers (15-2, #1 seed in NFC)
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-7, #6 seed in NFC)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-7, #7 seed in NFC)
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-12)

The 49ers may not have a superstar quarterback, but they have the firepower at pretty much every other position to make up for it. RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle, LT Trent Williams, ED Nick Bosa, and LB Fred Warner all remain on this stacked roster. This should lead to one of the league’s best seasons.

The Seahawks may not have quite that level of star power, but remain a pretty well-rounded team that should be in the mix for a playoff spot. I have them neck and neck with the Rams, who return pretty much everybody notable from last year not named Aaron Donald.

The Cardinals remain in the basement here, but like Carolina, should improve compared to last year. The defense added a few pieces, and a full season of QB Kyler Murray should help. While he’s not a superstar, he serves as an upgrade over the QB situation early last season for Arizona.

Playoff Bracket

In the AFC, the Chiefs have dominated over the last 6 years. However, I have QB C.J. Stroud and the Texans taking them down and making it all the way to Super Bowl LIX. The Texans arguably have the most stacked offense in the entire NFL, and I expect their defense to hold its own as well. The game against KC could go either way, but I feel Stroud is going to take his game to the next level this year.

On the other side of the AFC bracket, I have QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens making another run, forcing the Dolphins into a one and done exit along the way. However, Stroud’s supporting cast far exceeds Jackson’s, and that will show in the AFC title game.

The NFC is once again weaker than the AFC this year, but I have one of the few elite QBs in the conference, Jalen Hurts, leading the Eagles back to the Super Bowl. Their path will take them past the new-look Bears and over the powerhouse 49ers (I expect an improved Eagles defense to get to Brock Purdy this year).

That will leave us with an Eagles-Texans Super Bowl. This game should be more exciting than Super Bowl LVIII and be full of offensive firepower. In the end, I have the Texans winning as Philly’s secondary may be improved, but 3 standout WRs may be a bit much for them to handle.

This year could go in a number of different directions, but I think the Texans improved more than most teams in the league this offseason and if anyone is going to dethrone Mahomes and the Chiefs, it would be them. Feel free to comment with your thoughts, and I hope football season goes well for whatever team you’re rooting for!