Since the podcast was recorded, I have solidified my official NBA Finals series predictions.

I have projected our scores for each game based on defensive win shares and shooting stats of players on each team:

  • Game 1: 103-93 Celtics
  • Game 2: 112-111 Celtics
  • Game 3: 113-88 Celtics
  • Game 4: 126-117 Mavericks
  • Game 5: 106-72 Celtics

Result: Celtics in 5

Celtics PPG leader: Jayson Tatum (23.0)

Mavericks PPG leader: Luka Doncic (27.2)

While the results of this series will heavily impact the legacies of Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic, I don’t necessarily think they’re the biggest X-factors in who takes the crown.

With Kristaps Porzingis back, I am confident in the consistency of this Boston offense. What will make a difference in this series is the matchup between Dallas’ ball-dominant guards (Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving) against Boston’s all NBA-defensive guards (Derrick White and Jrue Holiday).

The Celtics defense has been pretty solid throughout the year, but they haven’t faced a star in these playoffs like Luka Doncic. Doncic will likely explode for 35 and steal a game, but it’s up to White and Holiday to prevent that from being a regular thing and prevent Kyrie Irving from adding too much to the damage.

The Celtics defense at its best is capable of winning them every game in this series, but it has shown inconsistency at times, which is not going to fly against a guys like Doncic and Irving.

As mentioned in the podcast, the Mavericks may have the better duo in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. However, the Celtics have the better starting 5, and each member of this five has a role to fill in order for this team to win.

Tatum and Jaylen Brown are your all around superstars and leaders of the team. White and Holiday set the tone on defense and down the stretch of games. Porzingis brings stability to the offense and provides a paint presence on both sides of the ball. If all 5 fulfill their roles, this will be Boston’s series to lose.

Leave a comment