With the Super Bowl behind us, we are at the turn of a season in the sports world. Spring Training is starting up, but in terms of the most thrilling action, all eyes should be on college basketball. We are just over a month away from Selection Sunday, and as usual, the selection committee will be revealing their current top 16 exactly one month in advance. In anticipation of this, I have decided to share my latest personal top 16 and bracketology. Keep reading to see which teams I expect to make the cut tomorrow, and which teams are in line to make the cut a month from now.

A Brief Note: This bracketology was created after the conclusion of games on Monday, March 13. In the days since, several teams have seen their stock rise or fall (most notably Syracuse with a win over North Carolina). However, this is not reflected in the below bracketology.

East Region

Bracket Preview Teams

1. Connecticut Huskies (#1 overall seed)
2. Arizona Wildcats (#8 overall seed)
3. Iowa State Cyclones (#11 overall seed)
4. Clemson Tigers (#14 overall seed)

It’s a good time to be a UConn fan. After a championship run on the back of sophomore standout Jordan Hawkins and big man Adama Sanogo, UConn has seen two more sophomore breakouts this year in Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan. In addition, point guard Tristen Newton has continued to improve and Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer has made a tremendous impact on the offense. It’s led to a dominant 2-loss season. Led by big man Oumar Ballo and UNC transfer Caleb Love, Arizona has enough of a resume to be a pretty safe bet for a top 4 seed come March, though they could run into trouble if they lose to a team like Stanford again in the final weeks of Pac-12 play. Iowa State has been one of this season’s biggest pleasant surprises. While I’m unsure if this level of success is sustainable, they are currently well deserving of a spot in the top 16 with home wins over the Big 12’s best in Kansas and Houston.

You’ll notice a bit of a dropoff between the 3-line and the 4-line in this current projection, but at least in my opinion, Clemson is among the best teams in that next tier down and is being severely underrated by the AP poll. With P.J. Hall among the nation’s best big men, expectations were high for the Tigers this year. While they lacked the resume to back that up early on, they’ve had some big ACC wins over teams they lost to earlier in the season including UNC. Their rise in the ACC should continue if things keep trending in this direction.

The Rest of the Field

FAU and Wisconsin both have a mix of big wins and ugly losses, making the 5/6 lines appropriate for them. I am notably higher on both Kansas State and Providence than most. It’s been a rocky ride for K-State in a tough Big 12, but they recently secured an OT win over Kansas on the back of star guard Tylor Perry. They also have wins over Villanova and Providence and I feel Perry at his best can take this team to new heights. The Friars have held their own in the Big East, and even hold a win over an elite team in Marquette. Their lack of respect from the consensus is also puzzling.

Meanwhile, I’m lower than most on Auburn and San Diego State. To me, Auburn lacks the big wins to warrant the top 4 seed they may end up projected as. SDSU is bogged down slightly by their loss to mid-major Grand Canyon, but have continued to build on their resume in weeks since.

On the back of a 13-0 start that preceded their recent 5-6 run, Ole Miss secures the final bye to round out the at-large bids in this region. With Richmond currently ahead of Dayton in the A-10, I have them stealing an autobid and securing a 12 seed. That leaves regional mid-major autobids Yale, Vermont, CCSU, and Quinnipiac, as well as slightly out of place Eastern Kentucky, in the final 4 seeds here.

West Region

Bracket Preview Teams

1. Kansas Jayhawks (#4 overall seed)
2. Marquette Golden Eagles (#7 overall seed)
3. Tennessee Volunteers (#9 overall seed)
4. Virginia Cavaliers (#13 overall seed)

Funnily enough this region contains 3 of the 4 Maui Invitational semifinalists in Kansas, Marquette, and Tennessee. Marquette did top Kansas in the semifinals of that tournament, but in the weeks since, both teams have played very well, and it’s the competitiveness of the Big 12 that has allowed Kansas to rise back to a 1 seed. After a non-conference win over UConn, Kansas went on to beat Houston in Big 12 play, as well as other tournament teams in TCU, Oklahoma, and Baylor. They did have an ugly loss to UCF, but that one is seeming more and more like an anomaly. They’ve been led by transfer big Hunter Dickinson and guard Kevin McCullar.

Tennessee placed 4th out of those Maui semifinalists, but has performed very well in the SEC and compiled a pretty strong resume of their own, taking down Illinois out of conference in addition to their 8-3 SEC record on the back of a dominant 20+ PPG year by Dalton Knecht.

Virginia is another team on the wrong side of the 3/4 dropoff I mentioned, but another one that I feel the AP poll has underrated. They’ve quietly risen to 3rd in the ACC behind UNC and Duke, and Tony Bennett’s defense has been at its best in recent weeks, holding Miami to just 38 points in a home win and holding Notre Dame to 53 after losing to them earlier in the season. A close road win over Clemson also helps their case.

The Rest of the Field

Typically, Nebraska is a Big Ten bottom feeder. This year, they’ve had some big moments in the conference, taking down Purdue and Michigan State and splitting a pair of games with Wisconsin. That’s enough to get them into the 5/6 mix for me.

Utah State may lack the big wins of Power Six teams, but a 20+ win team in a pretty strong Mountain West is a tournament lock. Texas Tech is also nearing 20 wins, and a recent win over Kansas further bolstered their resume. BYU has performed at a similar level in the Big 12, but are still looking for that win on the biggest scale.

Texas A&M is a team I came into the season pretty high on, to the point where I saw them as candidates to win the SEC. While Wade Taylor IV is having a strong season as expected (19.8 PPG), the team has not lived up to those expectations. However, they do remain in the top half of the SEC and I have faith that they are deserving of a pretty secure spot in the tournament, just not in a top 4 seed as I anticipated in the preseason.

Saint Mary’s and Indiana State get here on autobids, but probably would be here either way. The Gaels remain undefeated in the WCC even after facing Gonzaga. Indiana State has just 3 losses this year, to Alabama, Michigan State, and Drake (who they beat in a second matchup). Until they lose to a non-tournament team, I’m inclined to think they should be competitive in the tourney.

Mid-major autobids round out the rest. UC Irvine and McNeese will get a boost for their wins over Power Six teams (USC and Michigan respectively).

South Region

Bracket Preview Teams

1. Houston Cougars (#2 overall seed)
2. Duke Blue Devils (#6 overall seed)
3. Illinois Fighting Illini (#10 overall seed)
4. Creighton Bluejays (#16 overall seed)

Houston doesn’t have quite the resume UConn does, but they have been nearly as dominant. The duo of LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead have helped them to a 21-3 record and had them in the lead for the Big 12 crown as of Monday (Iowa State has since tied them with a midweek win over Cincinnati). With Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach among their returnees, Duke came into this season among the title favorites. While they were somewhat disappointing in early weeks, they are now right on UNC’s tail for the ACC title. They came around and beat 2 of the 3 ACC teams they lost to in rematches, and the third of those ACC losses is to the Tar Heels. Illinois’ success was interrupted by a month-long absence of Terrance Shannon Jr., but they are right back on track since Shannon’s return (outside of a loss to Michigan State).

Creighton suffered a couple questionable losses early, but has arguably beaten everyone they were expected to in Big East play. While they lack the big time Big East wins to be considered elite, a strong offense that includes three 15+ PPG scorers and strong rankings in both the NET and KenPom could imply that said win is due to happen soon. They are undefeated against Quad 3 and 4 teams, while holding a 8-7 record against the top 2 quads. They just need to make some noise against a team like UConn or Marquette to secure their spot here.

The Rest of the Field

Similar to Utah State, South Carolina has a lot of wins but lacks a strong track record against elite teams, so I was hesitant to put them in a top 4 seed. I have Memphis, who’s had a roller coaster of a year with some of the nation’s biggest wins and ugliest losses, slightly above them.

TCU is another one of those teams among the middle of the pack in the Big 12. Their only huge win has come against Houston, but they did also make things very close against Kansas.

I’m higher on Gonzaga than most, as they were competitive in the early-season invitationals despite lacking their usual WCC dominance. I put them just above the Kentucky team they recently beat, but it’s been a similar story for both those squads this year: big name, decent team, but a weaker resume than usual. Kentucky has especially suffered due to defensive problems, allowing 80 to UNC Wilmington in an upset loss and 90+ to Texas A&M, Florida, and Tennessee in SEC losses.

Texas and New Mexico hold spots in the last four in as they’ve held their own in their respective conferences but still need some more strong wins to secure their position. One seed line above them is 23-2 mid-major Grand Canyon, who has taken down San Diego State and only lost to South Carolina and Seattle (who they later beat).

Autobids also fill out the bottom 5 seeds here. I’d see Applachian State or Southern as most likely to make a run out of this bunch. Southern may be one of the best HBCU squads in recent memory, though their big win over Mississippi State came when star player Tolu Smith was still injured,

Midwest Region

Bracket Preview Teams

1. Purdue Boilermakers (#3 overall seed)
2. North Carolina Tar Heels (#5 overall seed)
3. Baylor Bears (#12 overall seed)
4. Dayton Flyers (#15 overall seed)

Purdue is set up to secure their second consecutive #1 seed on the back of a second consecutive dominant year by Zach Edey. The question is whether their success can translate to the tournament. There’s already signs this team could be more upset prone than most 1 seeds considering their losses to Nebraska and Northwestern. UNC just misses on a one seed. While they do look much better with R.J. Davis and Caleb Love split up after last year’s love triangle, their lack of big wins outside the ACC is holding back their resume compared to competitors.

Baylor isn’t exactly a team that struck me as deserving of a 3 seed, but they sort of land here by default due to the lack of elite teams in front of them. This team makes up for their lack of flashy wins and superstars with depth and consistency. Their 5 losses have come to Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, and Michigan State, all of which should be tournament teams. Dayton falls into a similar category, but the recent losses to Richmond and VCU took a bit of a toll on their resume. Richmond isn’t exactly terrible though; they came into the week 9-1 in A10 play (the 1 was VCU).

The Rest of the Field

Washington State is flying severely under the radar right now. To me, aside from Arizona, they are the only other tournament team in the Pac-12 right now (several bubble teams behind them could sneak in at some point). They sit second in the conference with a win over that Arizona team, and really only one significantly concerning loss (California). Butler is another team with a sneaky good resume. They got off to a 9-2 start before picking up wins over Marquette and Creighton in conference play.

These surprise teams have enough of a track record to put them ahead of Alabama in my mind. The Crimson Tide have performed well within the SEC, but their lead in the conference is far from secure and they were off to a pretty underwhelming start before SEC play. The in-conference success puts them firmly back into the tournament, but not necessarily into a top 4 seed. Middle of the pack Big 12 squad Oklahoma sits one seed behind them.

While this may change considering their recent trajectory, I am currently among the minority who feel Miami deserves a spot in the tourney. Wins over Kansas State and Clemson cannot be overlooked. This offense looks very sharp, and is able to keep up with star players on opposing teams. I still have them over teams like Northwestern (whose loss to Chicago State still stings) as well as Colorado State and Michigan State, who I have in my last four in after a mix of big wins and losses.

The AAC has a potential bid thief in South Florida, who I put in as the current leaders in that conference. Among the mid-major autobids below them, I like UNC Wilmington or Norfolk State for an upset. South Dakota State has also always been sneaky.

It’s currently a fairly rough outlook for bubble teams with Richmond and South Florida projected to steal bids in multi-bid conferences, so the teams currently in the tournament should be fine as long as they keep their pace the rest of the way.

As for the teams on the outside looking in, I think it’s likely at least one more Pac-12 team snags a bid before Selection Sunday, with Colorado, Oregon, and to a lesser extent Utah being the top candidates. Even if Arizona or Washington State wins in the end, a run in the Pac-12 tourney could help these bubble teams’ case. It’s a similar situation in the Mountain West, with Boise State and Nevada just outside the tourney in a bloodbath of a conference. The difference there is that two Mountain West bubble teams in Colorado State and New Mexico already sit within the field of 68. Of the two on the outside, I’d say the Broncos are in a better position considering Nevada’s loss to MVC runner-up Drake.

Outside of those two conferences, Mississippi State is a team that was very tempting to put in the tournament. They’ve looked especially good since the return of Tolu Smith, but a few more big wins in the conference may be necessary to secure a spot. NC State has beaten up on the ACC’s bottom feeders, but will need to make some noise against Duke, UNC, or Clemson to boost their resume. The upcoming matchup with fellow bubble team Syracuse is also very important for them to win. Saint Joseph’s secured the final spot in the next four out here, but several other teams, including Syracuse, VCU, Santa Clara, Florida, and Villanova, were close, so it could be a serious uphill battle for teams in this tier to make the tournament. I’m lower on Florida than most, but I still would like to see a run in the SEC tournament before I feel comfortable putting them in.

Feel free to comment with your thoughts. In the meantime, the madness is only just beginning, so stay tuned for more content all the way through to the national championship.