If I’ve learned anything this NFL season, it’s to expect the unexpected. In the one year the Kansas City Chiefs did not look like themselves, they made it back. In a year of absolute madness, we get a fairly generic matchup as the Chiefs and 49ers have a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. While this will be QB Brock Purdy’s first Super Bowl appearance, this matchup is eerily similar to that one: one of the best QBs of the generation up against a stacked roster with a game manager under center. Patrick Mahomes’ track record is much different than in that last game, and his supporting cast has changed. However, will the results be the same? I’ll be previewing how each team can win and giving my prediction with stats.

The Case for the Chiefs 

It’s been a bumpy road for the Chiefs this year, bumpier than it has been in Mahomes’ career thus far. While this team has looked unstoppable in the playoffs, it is not without flaws. For much of the season, even with Taylor Swift cheering him on, TE Travis Kelce did not look like his usual self. Outside of him, Mahomes lacked a reliable receiver until the emergence of rookie WR Rashee Rice late in the season. Even for much of this playoff run, while Patrick Mahomes has looked clutch as usual, it’s been the defense that has led the way, with a CB duo of L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie shutting down opposing receivers and star DT Chris Jones anchoring a strong d-line. No matter what, the Niners offense is going to put up a decent amount of points, so Mahomes will need his receivers open in this one. With open receivers, he should be capable of getting throws off quickly and avoiding pressure from the strong Niners pass rush. However, there’s not much even an elite QB can do without an open man. In terms of slowing down the Niners, it comes down to the matchup between WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel and CBs Sneed and McDuffie.

Offensive Keys: Get open and avoid drops 

Defensive Key: Shut down Purdy’s receivers

The Case for the 49ers

What’s unique about the 49ers compared to most contenders is that it wasn’t necessarily their QB who got them here, but rather everything around him. I don’t know if there’s a better foursome of skill players on one team than Samuel, Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle. In addition, the Niners have the league’s best tackle (Trent Williams), and an elite front seven that contains a plethora of big names like Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, Fred Warner, and Dre Greenlaw. The good news for the Niners is that this hasn’t exactly been a year where QB play of other teams has stood out, meaning the talent the Niners have around their QB has meant more than usual. The balance of this team has brought them far, and will be necessary to win here. If there’s been one weakness with this team outside of injuries, it’s been their secondary. They cannot let themselves get burned by Mahomes and the pass game, especially when the Chiefs aren’t exactly coming in with a star studded group of receivers.

Offensive Key: Utilize the balance that’s worked for them

Defensive Key: Don’t let the Chiefs WRs burn the DBs 

Game Prediction

Similar to last time, I’m expecting the 49ers to get off to a fast start here. With the amount of raw talent on that offense, they are going to be hard to stop, especially early on. The impact of TE George Kittle as a pass catcher and a run blocker will be felt here, as he performs like the better and more well rounded than Kansas City’s TE Travis Kelce. In addition, RB Christian McCaffrey will remind everyone of the difference an elite RB can make in a game like this. QB Patrick Mahomes is one of the most clutch players in the league, so I do expect him to lead some form of comeback effort with help from Kelce and WR Rashee Rice. However, there are too many flaws to this Chiefs team to trust them coming from behind. They are not exactly in prime position to exploit San Francisco’s biggest weakness in the secondary, and I actually see mistakes by Mahomes’ other receivers costing them here. 

Chiefs Stats

Passing

• Patrick Mahomes: 28/40, 305 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 sacks

Rushing

• Isiah Pacheco: 12 rushes, 37 yards, 0 TD
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 4 rushes, 13 yards, 0 TD
• Patrick Mahomes: 4 rushes, 9 yards, 0 TD

Receiving

• Rashee Rice: 8 rec, 106 yards, 1 TD
• Travis Kelce: 7 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD
• Justin Watson: 3 rec, 42 yards, 0 TD
• Justyn Ross: 2 rec, 21 yards, 0 TD
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 1 rec, 20 yards, 0 TD
• Noah Gray: 2 rec, 15 yards, 0 TD
• Isiah Pacheco: 4 rec, 13 yards, 0 TD
• Mecole Hardman: 1 rec, 9 yards, 0 TD

49ers Stats

Passing

• Brock Purdy: 25/38, 235 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Rushing

• Christian McCaffrey: 25 rushes, 112 yards, 1 TD
• Elijah Mitchell: 7 rushes, 23 yards, 0 TD
• Brock Purdy: 4 rushes, 7 yards, 0 TD
• Jordan Mason: 2 rushes, 7 yards, 0 TD
• Deebo Samuel: 2 rushes, 5 yards, 0 TD

Receiving

• George Kittle: 8 rec, 104 yards, 1 TD
• Brandon Aiyuk: 6 rec, 66 yards, 1 TD
• Christian McCaffrey: 5 rec, 26 yards, 0 TD
• Deebo Samuel: 3 rec, 21 yards, 0 TD
• Ronnie Bell: 1 rec, 8 yards, 0 TD
• Kyle Juszczyk: 1 rec, 5 yards, 0 TD
• Charlie Woerner: 1 rec, 5 yards, 0 TD

Scoring/Turnover Summary

1st Quarter

• Brock Purdy intercepted by Trent McDuffie
• Brock Purdy to George Kittle for 9 yard TD (7-0 SF)

2nd Quarter

• Patrick Mahomes to Rashee Rice for 7 yard TD (7-7 TIE)
• Brock Purdy to Brandon Aiyuk for 5 yard TD (14-7 SF)
• Jake Moody 38 yard FG (17-7 SF)

3rd Quarter

• Harrison Butker 37 yard FG (17-10 SF)

4th Quarter

• Harrison Butker 43 yard FG (17-13 SF)
• Christian McCaffrey 4 yard rush TD (24-13 SF)
• Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce for 10 yard TD (24-20 SF)
• Patrick Mahomes intercepted by Charvarius Ward

Projected MVP: RB Christian McCaffrey

Who knows if any of this will be accurate, but no matter what happens, this should be a fun game. I hope you all enjoyed reading this and hope you all enjoy watching tonight.