We’re not even through November and MLB free agency is already starting to pick up. We’ve seen a few small trades and contracts as well as the return to Philadelphia of SP Aaron Nola. However, there’s still a lot of big names on the market and a lot of needy teams ready to pounce on them. There’s millions of different ways this offseason could go, but I’ll be giving my best guess on how it’ll pan out for the biggest stars out there.

Among one of the teams expected to be the most aggressive are our hometown Boston Red Sox. Craig Breslow has replaced Chaim Bloom and it seems ownership will give him the green light to spend aggressively. Keep reading to see which of these top free agents I have the Sox making a move on, as well as where the rest will land.

1. TWP Shohei Ohtani

Prediction: Dodgers (10 years, $425 million)

Ohtani is more than just the best free agent on the market this year. He‘s the best in recent memory. While he won’t pitch next year, and concerns about his long term future pitching have lowered his value slightly, he remains the most consistent hitter on the open market with the upside to return to high end starting pitching once fully healthy.

It appears Ohtani wants to stay on the west coast, but upgrade to a team that’s more ready to win now than the Angels. The Dodgers will be among the top spenders of the offseason and seem to be the best fit. The need is there: J.D. Martinez and Clayton Kershaw hit the open market this offseason. On Ohtani’s end, what could be better than upgrading to a winning organization without having to move out of his house? This fit seems too perfect not to happen, though teams like the Giants and many others could also go all in on recruiting him.

2. SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Prediction: Red Sox, 10 years, $325 million

Yamamoto has quickly risen to the spotlight as Nippon Professional Baseball has prepared to post him this offseason. Yamamoto isn’t just your average NPB pitcher. He’s won three consecutive NPB Triple Crowns and three consecutive Eiji Sawamura Awards (equivalent to the Cy Young). His career 1.82 ERA is lower than the likes of Kodai Senga, Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda, and Yu Darvish over the course of their time in NPB. Over the last 3 years he’s averaged an ERA under 1.50. While he may not have this level of dominance, he projects as an MLB ace and he’s only 25. See this table below for how Japanese aces (NPB career ERA below 2.75) that have come to the MLB since 2010 have fared once they arrive.

Pitcher	MLB Debut	NPB ERA	MLB ERA	Change
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	2024	1.82	?	?
Kodai Senga	2023	2.59	2.98	+0.39
Shohei Ohtani	2018	2.52	3.01	+0.49
Kenta Maeda	2016	2.39	3.92	+1.53
Masahiro Tanaka	2014	2.66	3.74	+1.08
Yu Darvish	2012	1.99	3.59	+1.60

I expect several pitcher needy teams, especially the Yankees and Red Sox, to get into a bidding war here. While the Yankees may be in an advantageous position to outbid Boston, the Red Sox could have an edge thanks to a current player on their roster: Masataka Yoshida. Yamamoto has played for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan, and Yoshida is the only Buffalo alum active in the MLB right now. Yoshida claims he’s close with Yamamoto, and if that has enough influence on Yamamoto’s destination, the Red Sox could be in a good spot. Yamamoto’s recent claim that he wants to pair up with other Japanese MLB players is a good sign.

The teams that lose this bidding war will be left with the next tier down of pitchers including Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery.

As for the Red Sox, this would be a great start to what needs to be a busy offseason for them. They would still need to add another starting pitcher or two (maybe a reunion with Eduardo Rodriguez?), plus a middle infield bat, but this would be their biggest contract by a significant amount.

3. SP Blake Snell

Prediction: Yankees, 5 years, $150 million

Snell is in a weird spot. He did just win his second career Cy Young. However, he’s looked average at best in every other year of his career, and even in the early months of 2023. His lack of consistency could prevent him from getting the kind of attention Ohtani and Yamamoto are getting. However, his high upside should have him atop the list of any teams who miss out on those two.

In the case that Yamamoto heads to Boston, I have the Yankees signing Snell as consolation. The Yanks have been linked to a different Padres player, but their priority this offseason should be adding more arms behind Gerrit Cole. Snell would be a great start and at his best, could give the Yankees an elite duo of aces. Having both 2023 Cy Young winners on one roster would be pretty ridiculous, but can Snell stay at that level in the high stakes Yankee Stadium creates?

4. OF Cody Bellinger

Prediction: Mets, 8 years, $220 million

Like Snell, Bellinger has had his inconsistencies, but at his best he’s one of the best players in the game. Bellinger had his best year since his MVP campaign as a member of the Cubs. While the Cubs could look to retain him, he’ll have plenty of bidders as one of the open market’s best bats.

While the Yankees and Red Sox focus their funds on pitching, I have Steve Cohen and the Mets pivoting towards hitters. The Mets may have a power bat in Pete Alonso, but they need someone who can regularly get on base. Bellinger, at his best, is that guy and is likely their best option in free agency given Ohtani is likely to stay on the west coast. He also adds depth to an outfield that doesn’t currently have much outside of Brandon Nimmo.

5. SP Sonny Gray

Prediction: Cardinals, 3 years, $105 million

If we’re thinking short term, Gray may be the best pitcher available. He posted a sub 3.00 ERA this year with the Twins and has been a high level starter for many years However, at age 33, his value is limited, giving guys like Yamamoto and Snell the edge in this market. In addition, he has not performed well in hitter-friendly ballparks, which limits his appeal to some top teams.

The Cardinals have always had a solid starting rotation, but lack a true #1 guy. If they add that, they could be closer to contention than many people think. Busch Stadium slightly favors pitchers, so I definitely see this as an environment Gray could pitch at his best in. While they may not be able to offer the money a team like Boston or New York could to Snell or Yamamoto, they should still be able to make a splash like this.

6. 1B Rhys Hoskins

Prediction: Cubs, 5 years, $115 million

With Hoskins out for the season this past year, many forget that he has been an elite-level hitter for the Phillies through most of his career. I think he will receive a lot more interest this offseason than many in the media expect.

With the Cubs missing out on resigning Bellinger, I have them taking a shot on Hoskins on a fairly large contract. Him and Christopher Morel can split time between first base and designated hitter, and the two of them should also be two of the best bats in next year’s Cubs lineup.

7. 3B Matt Chapman

Prediction: Giants, 3 years, $70 million

Chapman isn’t necessarily the most consistent at the plate, but from a defensive perspective, he’s one of the best infielders in the league. He’s also coming off a year in which he held an OPS of over .750.

It would be nice for the Blue Jays to have him back, but their more pressing needs are in their outfield, and they have less money to spend than a good number of infielder-needy teams. The Giants are ready to make a splash, and they may have a lot of infield depth but they lack a true star. Chapman can be that guy, and I would expect J.D. Davis to move into more of a first baseman/designated hitter role in this situation.

8. SP Jordan Montgomery

Prediction: Padres, 4 years, $100 million

Jordan Montgomery has been a bit of a journeyman over the past 2 years. After spending most of his rookie deal with the Yankees, he was dealt at the deadline to St. Louis in 2022, where he was a key part of the Cardinals’ playoff run. When the Cardinals fell flat the next year, they dealt him to Texas, where he was a key piece in the Rangers’ World Series victory. Montgomery has pitched at an ace-caliber level at his best, but has only reached that peak late in seasons after trades, and he actually had the same pitching coach, Mike Maddux on both playoff runs.

It would make a lot of sense for Montgomery to stay in Texas and reunite with Maddux. However, the Rangers are loaded with pitchers and I see them letting him walk and shifting their attention toward the lineup this offseason. That would leave Montgomery up for grabs. With Blake Snell likely on the outs, the Padres could bring him in as an immediate replacement. Other teams should be in the mix, but I have the bigger market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers looking in other directions, leaving Montgomery available to the next tier of teams.

9. OF/DH Jorge Soler

Prediction: Rangers, 4 years, $80 milion

After mixed results in 2022, Soler had a career year in 2023, becoming an All-Star for the first time and hitting 36 long bombs. He’s positioned himself as one of the better bats in the free agent market.

As I mentioned before, I think the Rangers will be looking to add another big bat to the lineup this offseason as they hope to keep the same level of dominance they had on their World Series run. Soler would be a good fit to upgrade over outfielders Travis Jankowski and Robbie Grossman, and he could also play DH at times. I even thought Evan Carter will be a regular starter for them this year, there’s still an opening for another outfield bat.

10. OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Prediction: Astros, 5 years, $85 million

Gurriel Jr. has always kind of flown under the radar, but through his time in the MLB he has been a consistently reliable option at the plate who also provides some defensive versatility. In recent years, he has fit best as a starting outfielder, though he did play a little first base last year.

The Astros will be losing OF/DH Michael Brantley to free agency, and I have them looking for a younger replacement. The Astros already had Gurriel’s brother before 2023 and I have them reuniting the Gurriels this offseason, signing Yulieski as a bench bat and bringing in Lourdes on a larger contract to start in the outfield.

That rounds out my top 10. There will be many more moves that round out the offseason, but I expect these ten to make the biggest impact. Comment with your thoughts, and stay tuned for more content soon.