Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

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I understand, this a little late, as Opening Day was Thursday, and the Red Sox didn’t look so great Thursday even though they are a part of this Top 6. But I figured I’d finish this series since there’s only one article left.

Welcome to the final article of my 2019 MLB preseason power rankings. This season, you could argue the Super Seven that was discussed a few years back still exists, except with different teams. The Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Yankees have remained elite, and despite declines by the Nationals, Indians, and Dodgers (probably) , new powerhouses in this league have arised. The Braves should be regular contenders now, the Cardinals could make a run with 1B Paul Goldschmidt here for the long run, and the Phillies should be competitive with Bryce Harper. But Philadelphia isn’t quite on the level of these other teams. So unless the Dodgers do stay elite after all, I think the Super Seven will become a Super Six. I will be discussing those six today and pointing out the Achilles Heel of each team. Click the links below for other articles in the series (I will add them as I post them):

2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings Series:

Ranking The Teams #30-25, My Version: The Bottom of the Barrel

Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

Ranking The Teams #18-13, My Version: Who else Misses out on Playoff Contention?

Ranking The Teams #12-7, My Version: Who has Playoff Chances?

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

I also released my 3rd annual preseason Baseball Bits!

6. St. Louis Cardinals

The Case for the Cardinals

The Cardinals haven’t made the playoffs in a few years, sure. But the veterans they kept around from their last playoff run, like Matt Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina, are still reliable contributors. They have also boosted the team with younger talent, including SP Jack Flaherty, OFs Harrison Bader and UT Jose Martinez, and SS Paul DeJong. After adding star in Goldy, the Cardinals have the tools they need for contention. But how far can they go in such a tough division? They will have to get past their division rivals that are also contending, the Cubs and Brewers.

The Achilles Heel

The Cards’ rotation looks alright and its young core will keep the rotation elite for a long time. But right now they lack an ace. I don’t believe they can be a World Series contender without one. Whether they need a trade to find an ace or someone steps up as time passes, this could hold them back from serious contention and should be priority #1 for GM Steve Keim. Maybe Martinez could be a good trade piece now that 1B Paul Goldschmidt is on board.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 2nd in NL Central

5. Boston Red Sox

The Case for the Red Sox

The defending World Series champions had a relatively quiet off-season. They did retain most of the team from 2018 that won 108 games. But the bullpen has been their biggest issue, even with Craig Kimbrel. Without Craig Kimbrel, there is even more pressure on the rotation to succeed. This is especially true regarding Chris Sale and David Price. After Sale’s extension, both will be expected to to shine every start in order to be worth the money. Each start costs about $1 million dollars. Regardless of this pressure, the Red Sox should at least secure a Wild Card spot if they can’t beat out the Yankees in the AL East. They are still one of several powerhouses in the league.

The Achilles Heel

With Craig Kimbrel on the way out, the closer role is up for grabs. But if you look at the active pitchers on the roster, it’s hard to imagine any of them as a consistent closer. If the Red Sox wanted to repeat, they would’ve invested more in this bullpen rather than focusing so much on the rotation. They need to add a closer unless Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, or someone else steps up soon.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 2nd in AL East

4. Atlanta Braves

The Case for the Braves

The Braves’ rebuild began to pay off last season as their younger players broke through. This off-season seemed quiet, but they filled a gaping hole at third by adding Josh Donaldson. They also brought back OF Nick Markakis, and they have reportedly been targeting a reunion with CL Craig Kimbrel. This small series of moves could make a big difference in Atlanta. These moves, alongside development of OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and 2B Ozzie Albies among other should transform the Braves from solely a division contender into a World Series contender. The Braves are my World Series winner this year. I expect 1B Freddie Freeman, Albies, Donaldson, and others to combine to make for one of the best lineups in the league.

The Achilles Heel

Health is definitely a concern, especially considering the fact that Atlanta will start the 2019 season with two starting pitchers on the IL. Donaldson is also injury prone, and if he goes down, Johan Camargo is the next best option at third base. I don’t trust Camargo as a starter. If the team stays healthy in the long run, they could be serious contenders. Otherwise, they could be in a bit of trouble.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 1st in NL East

3. Chicago Cubs

The Case for the Cubs

The Cubs may have been quiet this off-season, but a healthy Yu Darvish will boost the rotation, the bullpen has plenty of depth despite questions at closer, and the lineup is looking pretty solid. Their decision to move Javier Baez to shortstop full time and put Ben Zobrist at second is very smart, as SS Addison Russell was inconsistent and had some character issues. The Cubs have dominated in the National League ever since their World Series winning year in 2016, but with a health a concern and the division getting tougher, will the Cubs be able to keep up the good work?

The Achilles Heel

The Cubs were unable to do much this off-season, and they could have used another outfielder. LF Kyle Schwarber and RF Jason Heyward are viable starters, but they are very streaky and inconsistent. Albert Almora Jr. is the best option in center field. Chicago should have added another center fielder to start over Almora some days and fill in for Heyward and Schwarber during slumps.

Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st in NL Central

2. New York Yankees

The Case for the Yankees

After pairing new slugger Aaron Judge with Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees underperformed in 2018. Yes, they made the playoffs and won 100 games. But they were overshadowed and eliminated by their bitter rival, the Boston Red Sox. This year, the Red Sox will be without their star closer, while the Yankees fixed up a problematic rotation and built one of the most stacked bullpens in history. This will allow the Yankees to propel past the Red Sox and win the AL East. But in Boston and New York, it’s all about championships, and the Yankees aren’t will have to work for a World Series victory, even with the stacked roster.

The Achilles Heel

The Yanks have some nice pieces in their infield. But if Troy Tulowitzki and Greg Bird fail to stay healthy, they are left with D.J. LeMahieu as their best infielder. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have not reached their prime yet, and Luke Voit must still prove that 2018 was not a fluke. So I’m a bit concerned in terms of infield depth for the Yankees.

Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st in AL East

1. Houston Astros

The Case for the Astros

The Astros are two years removed from their World Series victory, a result of a 5-year rebuild that made the Astros one of the MLB’s worst for a good 2-3 year span. Now, the Astros are still one of the league’s elite teams, but they lost some of their starting rotation depth this off-season, forcing two starter-turned-relievers back into the rotation. They did bring in OF Michael Brantley and UT Aledmys Diaz, filling the hole UT Marwin Gonzalez left. Though Houston took a slight step back this off-season, I still have them as my AL West winners and the team with the best regular season record. Considering the young core they have put together in the last several years, they should be elite for a long, long, time now.

The Achilles Heel

Evan Gattis is no longer on the team, which means Tyler White must be trusted as Houston’s regular DH. This could be a prove-it situation for White, but if White struggles, what then? They could bring Gattis back, or they could just put Diaz back there. They could even call up Kyle Tucker to play DH. This one’s an easy fix, just something to keep an eye on.

Projected Finish: 96-66, 1st in AL West

That’s all for this year’s preseason MLB power rankings. Come back at the end of April for my first 2019 set of monthly power rankings.

Baseball Bits #12: Can Sox Repeat like Few Teams have?

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Welcome to my annual preseason Baseball Bits article!

If you were unaware, today marks 5 years since I started my Boston Sports Mania blog! The Red Sox were just about to begin their regular season when I started, and just like this year, they were coming off a World Series victory. On my first day, I posted an article titled “MLB 2014 Preview”, which included my predictions for the 2014 MLB season. I still write these prediction articles every year, including this year.

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I call March 25th my “blog-a-versary”, and this year is a big milestone. All of my opportunities are a result of this blog. Most recently, I delivered a motivational keynote speech about my story so far at the Visions of Community Conference hosted by the Federation for Children with Special Needs at the Boston Seaport World Trade Center (see below):

I started this blog to write about my favorite sports like baseball, which is what today’s post is about.

9de8f0c9-6ee9-4ee2-a397-8d905fbe772d — Top: After the Red Sox’s 100th win Bottom: After the Red Sox’s World Series win

In 2018 the Red Sox became the 16th team in the 162-game era to win over 100 regular season games and then go on to win the World Series. They were led by new manager Alex Cora and a new star in J.D. Martinez. But what most Boston sports fans are wondering about now is how the Red Sox will do in 2019 and whether they will repeat. I did some research on 100+ win World Series winners in the 162-game era and how they did in their next season below.

The Research

Baseball Bits #12_ 100-Win World Series Winners – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

Note: In the context of this article, a team who repeats for 2 years in a row is counted for 1 repeat, 3 years in a row is counted for 2 repeats, 4 years in a row is counted for 3 repeats, etc

Only 23 of 115 (20%) World Series winners have repeated
In the 162-game era, only 16 of 57 (28%) 100-win teams have won the World Series, including the 2018 Red Sox
In the 162-game era, only 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox have repeated, with 4 of the teams repeating after 100-win seasons
Of the 15 100 win World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox:9 teams (60%) made the playoffs4 teams (26.67% of the 15) repeated2 of those teams reached 100 wins when they repeated:1976 Cincinnati Reds
- 1978 New York Yankees
2 of those teams failed to reach 100 wins again when they repeated:1962 New York Yankees
- 1999 New York Yankees (repeated again in 2000
The Red Sox did not win the World Series in an 100 win season in the 162-game era until 2018
Another 2 of the 15 (13.33%) lost the World Series:1968 St. Louis Cardinals
- 1978 Baltimore Orioles
3 of the 15 (20%) lost in the LCS2010 New York Yankees
- 2017 Chicago Cubs
- 2018 Houston Astros
6 of the 15 (40%) missed the playoffs entirely1969 Detroit Tigers
- 1970 New York Mets
- 1977 Cincinnati Reds
- 1979 New York Yankees
- 1985 Detroit Tigers
- 1987 New York Mets
Each of the last 3 100-win World Series winners lost in the LCS the next year

The Verdict

Based on the research, I believe the Red Sox have a 20 to 25% chance to repeat. I believe that there is still a select group of elite teams that could win the World Series this year. World Series repeats are less common during the 162-game era as just 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners repeated. However, 4 of those teams were 100-win teams. World Series winners who did not reach 100 wins in this time frame only repeated 12.1% of the time since 1961. That’s more like a 1 in 8 chance. 100-win World Series winners have repeated 26.67% of the time during the same time frame. I think the significance of being a 100-win team helps improve the Sox chances to repeat.

However, as much as I hate to admit it as a huge Boston fan, I am sticking with my prediction that the Sox will fail to reverse the trend of World Series winners. I think they will lose in the ALCS to either the New York Yankees or Houston Astros. The odds are stacked against the Sox reaching 100 wins as well since only 4 of the 15 100-win World Series winners even reached 100 wins again the next year. I don’t think the Red Sox will reach the century mark but will come close at somewhere between 92 and 96 games. A bullpen with no proven closer to start the season helps support my prediction A World Series repeat is unlikely to happen, though you shouldn’t rule it out yet.

Alex Cora did wonders for this team last year, so maybe he’ll be able to recreate the magic of 2018. If he can, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be 2019 AL Manager of the Year.

That’s all for today’s Baseball Bits. After all I have accomplished in the last 5 years, I look forward to creating even better content over the next 5 years. Stay tuned for more soon, including the next portion of my MLB Preseason Power Rankings.

MLB 2019 Predictions: Who will Follow in Houston and Chicago’s Footsteps Post-Rebuild?

March 3, 2019March 3, 2019 Andrew Roberts MLB, Picks & Previews, Red Sox Aaron Judge, Amed Rosario, Andrew McCutchen, Anibal Sanchez, Anthony Rendon, Billy Hamilton, Brian Dozier, Bryce Harper, Byron Buxton, C.J. Cron, Carlos Gomez, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, Christian Yelich, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Craig Kimbrel, Cutch, Dallas Keuchel, Dee Gordon, Eloy Jimenez, Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Forrest Whitley, Freddie Freeman, Garrett Richards, Giancarlo Stanton, Goldy, Gregory Polanco, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, J.T. Realmuto, Jacob DeGrom, Jean Segura, Jed Lowrie, Jesus Aguilar, Jharel Cotton, Jhoulys Chacin, Joey Gallo, Joey Votto, Jonathan Lucroy, Jordan Lyles, Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Juan Soto, Julio Teheran, Jurickson Profar, Justin Verlander, Kenley Jansen, Kyle Tucker, Lance McCullers, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Urias, Mad Max, Manny Machado, Marco Estrada, Matt Joyce, Matt Kemp, Max Scherzer, Michael Brantley, Michael Pineda, Miguel Sano, Mike Fiers, Mike Trout, Mitch Keller, MLB, MLB 2019 Predictions, MLB Predictions, NFL, Nolan Arenado, Nomar Mazara, Patrick Corbin, Paul Goldschmidt, Peter Alonso, Predictions, Robinson Cano, Sean Manaea, Sergio Romo, Shohei Ohtani, Spring Training, Starling Marte, Stephen Strasburg, Todd Frazier, Trevor Williams, Tyler Skaggs, Victor Robles, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Walker Buehler, world series, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke

The time has finally come. If you are reading this, the NFL season is over, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have signed, and Spring Training has begun. After a long off-season, baseball is finally back, and it is time for my MLB 2019 Predictions. I will be predicting each team’s win-loss record, sharing my projected playoff bracket, and sharing some award predictions. My projected World Series winner is a team that began rebuilding a couple years after the Astros and Cubs rebuilds and has now followed in their footsteps to contention. Keep reading to find out who that team is and how they will achieve a World Series victory.

Part I: Projected Records

American League

AL East

New York Yankees (94-68) (2nd Seed in AL Playoffs)
Boston Red Sox (93-69) (4th Seed in AL Playoffs)
Toronto Blue Jays (80-82)
Tampa Bay Rays (75-87)
Baltimore Orioles (67-95)

2018 was Boston’s year. They built up the roster preparing for a World Series, and now the damage is done. Expect a mild World Series hangover due to the departure of closer Craig Kimbrel and the loss of momentum. If Kimbrel returns, they may be more equipped to repeat. But right now, as much as I hate to admit it, the Yankees have the most talent in the division. Their rotation depth issues are finally fixed, the bullpen could go down in record books, and the lineup is still flooded with big hitters, including the superstar duo of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Expect New York to win the division this time around, but the Red Sox should still easily score a Wild Card spot.

Toronto should be moving quickly in their rebuild thanks to a talented group of prospects including the leagues #1 prospect, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Now, they are an extra starting pitcher away from becoming a sub .500 team close to contention. Remember, they are just a couple years removed from the start of a rebuild. But this group of prospects will give them a respectable major league roster by the end of the season. With Toronto on the rise, the Rays will take a step back. The Rays never really replaced 1B C.J. Cron, OF Carlos Gomez, or reliever Sergio Romo. If they want to keep using an opener, they’ll need to beef up the bullpen. Otherwise, expect significant regression in 2019. They were right on the verge of contention in 2018. Had they beefed up the roster a little more, they might have had playoff chances this year. But instead, they’ll sit towards the bottom of the AL East. However, the Orioles will remain in the AL East basement after a 47 win season. The Orioles finally began a full rebuild in 2018, but this may be a long, painful rebuild considering their 2018 final record.

AL Central

Cleveland Indians (89-73) (3rd Seed in AL Playoffs)
Chicago White Sox (82-80)
Minnesota Twins (80-82)
Kansas City Royals (68-94)
Detroit Tigers (66-96)

Despite an underwhelming off-season, the Indians should be able to stay atop the AL Central. In most other divisions, the Indians would have to fight for a Wild Card spot, but in the AL Central, they should have an easier route to the playoffs, as none of the other teams in their division are ready for contention. Despite coming up short in the Manny Machado sweepstakes, the White Sox made several improvements this off-season that can assist their young core in the next step towards contention. If they add a starter or two and another infielder, they could be chasing the Indians for the division by 2020. The Twins won’t see a significant improvement this year, but hopefully the return of SP Michael Pineda and better years from Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will help them move up the standings slightly.

That leaves the Royals and Tigers, two rebuilding teams, in the basement of the AL Central. With Billy Hamilton on board and some of their younger players ready to start, the Royals may see slight improvement. But it will take a couple years for the Tigers to do the same.

AL West

Houston Astros (96-66) (1st Seed in AL Playoffs)
Los Angeles Angels (86-76) (5th Seed in AL Playoffs)
Oakland Athletics (80-82)
Texas Rangers (73-89)
Seattle Mariners (70-92)

Though the lineup will be better with the addition of LF Michael Brantley, the Astros’ rotation took a significant hit thanks to the free agent departures of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton and an injury to Lance McCullers Jr. If the rotation does well without Morton and Keuchel, the Astros could win another World Series. No matter what, I think they’ll win the division, but if the rotation struggles I wouldn’t expect a deep playoff run.

The Angels will also sneak into the playoffs in an extremely top-heavy American League. In my eyes, the American League will have three 90+ win teams: the Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox. That leaves the door open for slightly above average teams like the Angels to make the playoffs. Led by Mike Trout and the rest of the big-hitting lineup, they’ll snag a Wild Card spot.

The Athletics will take a step back this year after a playoff appearance in 2018. The rotation will be without Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton for a good portion of the season. Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada cannot lead this rotation alone. Plus, the only Jed Lowrie replacement the A’s were able to find was former Rangers utility man Jurickson Profar. The losses of Jonathan Lucroy and Matt Joyce will also make an impact on the team.

That leaves the Rangers and Mariners. The Rangers won’t improve much quite yet despite an experienced rotation and a core led by outfielders Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara. They’ll need to undergo a full rebuild before significant improvement can occur. The Mariners are starting that process, though they still boast a respectable MLB roster. They could’ve probably contended this year if it weren’t for the start of a rebuild. But instead, they gave up some of their most talented players in exchange for minimal top prospects. The less talented roster will put the team into a situation similar to that of their division rivals, the Rangers. Despite a respectable roster with experience, the team won’t be talented enough to produce above average seasons.

National League

NL East

Atlanta Braves (93-69) (2nd Seed in NL Playoffs)
Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) (5th Seed in NL Playoffs)
Washington Nationals (84-78)
New York Mets (83-79)
Miami Marlins (61-101)

This will undoubtedly be the most competitive division in baseball. I see a young, but emerging Braves team repeating as the division winner, led by a big year from Freddie Freeman, significant contribution from new 3B Josh Donaldson, and a bounce back for SP Julio Teheran. In 2018, the Phillies were a star or two away from greatness. This off-season, they added C J.T. Realmuto, OF Andrew McCutchen, SS Jean Segura, and most of all, OF Bryce Harper. Led by Harper, the lineup will be loaded with talent, leading to a big year.

The Nats and Mets will also contend. The Nats made up for Harper’s departure by boosting the rotation with SPs Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez. To add to it, they signed 2B Brian Dozier. Even without Harper, they should still be in good hands with Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and others. After adding 2B Robinson Cano among other stars, the Mets should also stay in contention, at least for this year.

The only team that’ll be out of this hectic NL East race is the Miami Marlins. The Marlins sold their entire outfield plus Dee Gordon and J.T. Realmuto in trades within the last two off-seasons. Without Realmuto, they will remain one of the worst teams in the league.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs (94-68) (1st Seed in NL Playoffs)
St. Louis Cardinals (93-69) (4th Seed in NL Playoffs)
Milwaukee Brewers (86-76)
Cincinnati Reds (80-82)
Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93)

I know people are concerned about the Cubs due to uncertainty about Yu Darvish’s health. But regardless of Darvish’s health, I think the Cubs have one of the best rotations in the league. Add in an underappreciated bullpen and a respectable lineup, and the roster begins to look underrated. I do have confidence that Darvish will be alright though.

The Cardinals should be Chicago’s biggest concern, as I expect the Cards to be knocking on Chicago’s door in the NL Central. With Paul Goldschmidt on board, they will combine their young, exciting pitching staff with a star-studded lineup and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Meanwhile, despite adding C Yasmani Grandal, I expect the Brewers to take a step back. I don’t trust 1B Jesus Aguilar or Jhoulys Chacin to repeat their strong 2018 seasons. With the rotation depleted and the lineup looking a little less overpowered, Milwaukee will fall behind as the NL Central competition gets more intense.

Meanwhile, the Reds will begin to take steps toward contention, led by new OF star Yasiel Puig and long time Reds 1B Joey Votto. They added a lot of experience to the rotation as well, so that should help. That leaves the Pirates in the division’s basement as they begin a rebuild. Their rotation should look pretty good this year, and when Gregory Polanco gets healthy, the outfield will thrive as well. However, I don’t fully trust Trevor Williams yet, and in such a tough division, I can’t see this rebuilding team finish very well.

NL West

Colorado Rockies (89-73) (3rd Seed in NL Playoffs)
Los Angeles Dodgers (85-77)
San Francisco Giants (84-78)
San Diego Padres (71-91)
Arizona Diamondbacks (68-94)

I think this might be the year when the Dodgers are finally dethroned. Despite a strong rotation led by Clayton Kershaw and the young Walker Buehler, the bullpen lacks depth beyond Kenley Jansen. In addition, they traded Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp for next to nothing. It does open up space in the outfield but the team will take a step back as a result. The infield already lacked depth with Brian Dozier leaving. Failing to sign Bryce Harper after the Puig/Kemp trade just made the depth problems worse.

This will allow the Rockies to win the division. Their rotation isn’t amazing, but they’ll be able to manage thanks to hitter friendly Coors Field and a strong bullpen to back the rotation up. It’s the star-studded lineup that will lead them to a division victory. The Giants are also closer to contention than you might think. They quietly boosted the rotation this off-season. This will add to their strong bullpen and allow them to achieve a winning record despite a subpar lineup and questionable outfield situation.

Even though they signed Manny Machado, the Padres won’t contend unless they significantly upgrade the rotation. Plus, they should have better luck contending once Fernando Tatis Jr. is in San Diego for a full season. They will finish ahead of the D-Backs, who will take a significant step back without Goldschmidt. That leaves SP Zack Greinke as the best player left, and there were trade rumors surrounding Greinke as well.

Part II: Playoff Bracket

When the Cubs won the World Series back in 2016, they set a precedent in the MLB. Their 5-year rebuild led to a World Series victory, and this has become a formula for World Series titles. The Astros, who were already following this formula, won the next year in 2017. Now, I think the Braves will be the next to do this. Their rebuild didn’t feel as long, because prospects like Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. developed quickly. But there are still more top prospects on the way, and thanks to this first wave of young talent, the Braves will be able to contend before their rebuild is finished. I think they may even be World Series ready.

The Bryce Harper-led Phillies, Atlanta’s division rival, will challenge them for the National League. Led by their HR-hitting duo of Stanton and Judge and upgraded rotation, the Yankees will come close as well. But I think the Braves are capable of outperforming these teams.

The Cubs and Astros should still be competitive in these playoffs and stay competitive down the stretch. But I think they will have their playoff runs cut short by a Red Sox team looking to repeat and a Phillies team looking for validation that Bryce Harper was worth the money.

Part III: Awards

Below are my projected finalists for the AL and NL MVPs, Cy Youngs, and Rookies of the Year.

AL MVP

1. Jose Ramirez CLE – Ramirez has emerged as one of the league’s premier power hitters. Expect him to come through at the plate on a more consistent basis and contend for the AL MVP award.

2. J.D. Martinez BOS – At the age of 31, I cannot see Martinez quite repeating what he did in 2018. But he will put up another consistent, 40-homer year despite just falling short of the MVP after playing over half of his games at DH.

3. Jose Altuve HOU – Altuve will return to MVP form after a 2018 that was subpar for his standards. His season will be highlighted by a hint of power mixed in with his speed and ability to get on base frequently.

HM: Giancarlo Stanton NYY

NL MVP

1. Nolan Arenado COL – His 8-year extension will be motivation to live up to expectations in Colorado. Expect an dominant offensive year to go along with his elite defensive skills.

2. Freddie Freeman ATL – Freeman will help lead a young Braves team to the first World Series of what could make for the MLB’s next dynasty. After emerging as the top first baseman in the league last year, he will contend for the MVP as his offensive stats continue to increase.

3. Christian Yelich MIL – After winning NL MVP in 2018, Yelich will run with the momentum and top off the prime of his career with another dominant season.

HM: Starling Marte PIT

AL ROTY

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR – This top prospect has the genetics and he’s been all out dominant in the minors. Expect him to make it up to Toronto early, earn the starting job at third and do the same in the majors, contending for Rookie of the Year.

2. Kyle Tucker HOU – Tucker may not have a starting job – yet. But he showed flashes of potential in 2018 and could get some time in the outfield or at DH in 2019.

3. Eloy Jiménez CWS – Another top prospect who needs just a few weeks in AAA before a major league call up. After that, expect him to earn a time share in the outfield and eventually (after a strong start) a starting job.

HM: Forrest Whitley HOU

NL ROTY

1. Peter Alonso NYM – If Alonso has a strong Spring Training, look for him to compete for the first base job as Todd Frazier, Jed Lowrie, Amed Rosario, and Robinson Cano split time between second, shortstop, and third. Cano could try playing first, but having Alonso there from Opening Day could be beneficial. I see him breaking out in his rookie year and winning NL Rookie of the Year.

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. SD – Tatis Jr. isn’t MLB ready yet, but I think he’ll make an immediate impact if they bring him up when the time is right. I could see a Hosmer-Kinsler-Tatis-Machado infield working out well. Luis Urias will have to wait until 2020 for another starting job.

3. Mitch Keller PIT – The Pirates’ first four starters have their jobs locked down. But if Keller gets off to a strong start in the minors, look for him to challenge Jordan Lyles for the #5 slot in the rotation and contend for NL Rookie of the Year.

HM: Victor Robles WSH

AL Cy Young

1. Corey Kluber CLE – Kluber heads into 2019 with something to prove. He needs to convince the Indians that he’s worth the money to keep around. The Indians don’t have much money to spend, so Kluber will need to put up a Cy Young-caliber year in order to do this.

2. Chris Sale BOS – If Sale can get healthy and stay healthy, he’ll be the best pitcher in this league. But he always ends up collapsing at the end of the year, so I have slightly more confidence in Kluber. However, maybe Alex Cora can figure out a way to allow him to stay healthy all year. If Cora can figure this out, Sale’s definitely worth re-signing.

3. Tyler Skaggs LAA – A healthy Skaggs showed potential last season, especially early on. With no clear ace atop the Angels rotation for 2019 and Shohei Ohtani restricted to just hitting, expect Skaggs to step it up and emerge as LA’s new ace, something they have longed for since Garrett Richards began to decline after LA’s 2014 playoff appearance.

HM: Justin Verlander HOU

NL Cy Young

1. Max Scherzer WSH – Expect Scherzer to emerge as the top pitcher in the league this year when Jacob deGrom takes a slight step back in his age 30 season. Scherzer has not let his age define him, and if anything, he has only gotten better with age. I don’t see a decline happening anytime soon for Mad Max, and he has another Cy Young year or two still ahead of him.

2. Clayton Kershaw LAD – Kershaw has dealt with lingering injuries, but when he’s on the mound and healthy, he has looked like the same Kershaw we’re used to seeing. Despite injuries, he has posted an ERA under 3.00 in each of the last 10 seasons. As usual, I expect Kershaw to contend for the Cy Young, especially if he remains healthy.

3. Julio Teheran ATL – Teheran hasn’t looked like the ace we thought he would be since 2014. But he is still just 28, and as long as it happens in the next year or two, I could definitely see him return to ace form and lead a young Braves rotation.

HM: Stephen Strasburg WSH

That’s all for this year’s MLB predictions. Stay tuned for more Red Sox and baseball coverage soon.

Baseball Bits #11: How Much are Harper, Machado, Really Worth?

January 21, 2019January 21, 2019 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency A-Rod, Alex Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Swarzak, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito, Baseball Bits, Baseball Bits #11, Ben Gamel, Bryce Harper, Carlos Beltran, CC Sabathia, Chicago, Chicago Sox, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati, Cincinnati Reds, Cincy, David Price, Dexter Fowler, Dodgers, Domingo Santana, Edwin Diaz, Edwin Encarnacion, ERA, Guillermo Heredia, J.A. Happ, J.P. Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Paxton, Jay Bruce, Jean Segura, Johnny Cueto, Jon Lester, Josh Donaldson, Justin Upton, Justus Sheffield, LA, LA Dodgers, Lorenzo Cain, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Mallex Smith, Manny Machado, Mark Buehrle, Max Scherzer, Michael Brantley, MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency, MLB FA Predictions, Nathan Eovaldi, Nationals, Nats, Nelson Cruz, New York, New York Yankees, NY, NY Yankees, OPS, oWAR, Patrick Corbin, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, pWAR, Reds, Robinson Cano, Victor Martinez, WAR, Washington, Washington Nationals, White Sox, Wilson Ramos, world series, Yankees, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Greinke

Welcome to the final article of my initial 2018-19 MLB free agency coverage. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may be the Top 2 free agents of the off-season, but how much money are they really worth? Keep reading to find out my take. If you haven’t seen them yet, you can also check out my previous MLB free agency articles at the links below. In February, I may also have some updated predictions on where the final remaining free agents will sign, so stay tuned.

MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Coverage – Tentative Schedule

Week of November 19: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers

Week of November 26: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Catchers & Infielders

Week of December 3: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders & Trade Ideas

Week of January 21: Baseball Bits #11: How Much Money are Harper, Machado Really Worth?

It’s been a crazy off-season so far. The Mariners have completely refreshed their roster, and the Dodgers dealt away Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in one trade. Winter Meetings were not only full of trades, but also free agent signings. Many of the top free agents, including Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Brantley, Josh Donaldson, Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal, and Andrew McCutchen have been signed.

But the top two free agents of the off-season, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, remain unsigned. Harper and Machado are regarded as a couple of the league’s best offensive players, and among free agent batters, Harper and Machado were the Top 2 in oWAR. Both Harper and Machado are capable of making a mediocre team a contender, or making a team that’s already a borderline playoff contender a relevant World Series contender.

Machado met with three teams in December: the White Sox, Yankees, and Phillies. He is likely going to sign with one of those three teams, but he has not made his decision yet, though he has reportedly narrowed it down to the White Sox and Phillies. Originally, I had predicted that Machado would go to the Phillies. But after their acquistion of Jean Segura, I see the White Sox as the best fit. There could be mystery teams in on Machado though, according to several newer reports.

Harper has not met with any teams yet, but the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, and Phillies among others have shown interest. After trading away two of their outfielders and more to the Reds for next to nothing, it would not be smart for the Dodgers to pass on Harper. But I think there’s a chance he’ll sign with the White Sox or Phillies as well.

Although they have some different suitors, one thing Harper and Machado have in common is their demand for a big contract. Harper turned down a 10 year, $300 million contract offered by the Nationals back in September. Machado could also reportedly sign for $250-300 million or more. But are Harper and Machado, let alone any free agent batter worth that much money?

I did some research on some free agents throughout the last 12 years. I looked at free agent batters and pitchers who were Top 50 in oWAR or pWAR the season before they hit the open market who ended up signing for at least $12 million/year and at least $45 million total. I researched their stats the following year. Did their WAR improve or decline? I looked at other stats too, like OPS for batters, and ERA for pitchers. The goal is to gauge how much Harper and Machado are really worth based on how big an impact they could realistically make right off the bat. Keep reading to see my research and some interesting “Baseball Bits” that I found through my research.

The Research

baseball bits #11_ how much money are harper and machado really worth_ (3)

The “Baseball Bits”

Of the 23 free agent batters since 2006 who were Top 50 in oWAR and signed for at least $12 million/year and $45 million total:
- Only 2, or 8.7% (Lorenzo Cain and Nelson Cruz) saw an increase in oWAR AND OPS throughout their contract, and only 1 of the 2 saw an increase in oWAR of 1.0 or more (Cruz, 4.2 → 6.0)
- Only 4, or 17.4%, saw an increase in oWAR OR OPS throughout their contract:
  - Cain, 2017-2018
  - Justin Upton, 2016-2017
  - Cruz, 2014-2015
  - Victor Martinez, 2010-2011
- 19 of the 23 (82.6%) saw a decrease in both oWAR AND OPS, and 14 of those 19 (60.9% of all the free agents, 73.7% of the 19), saw an decrease by 2.0 or more in WAR or 0.2 or more in OPS
- Only 7 of the 23, or 30.4% were under 30 as a free agent
  Of those 7, 6 saw a decrease in OPS AND oWAR
- Only Justin Upton saw an increase in OPS, while none of the 7 saw an increase in WAR
- Harper and Machado both had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0 in 2018. 12 of these 23 free agents also had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0. Of the 12:
  - 2 saw an increase in both oWAR and OPS
  - 1 saw an increase in OPS
  - 9 saw a decrease in both
- Harper and Machado both apparently want over $250 million. Only 1 free agent hitter since 2006 (Alex Rodriguez, 10 years, $275 million) received that much, and he saw a significant decrease in both oWAR and OPS the next year. Robinson Cano (10 years, $240 million) made almost that much and saw a mild to moderate decrease.
Of the 17 free agent pitchers since 2006 who were Top 50 in pWAR and signed for at least $12 million/year and $45 million total:
- Only 1 (Max Scherzer) saw an improvement in pWAR AND ERA the next year
- Only 2, or 11.8%, saw an improvement in pWAR OR ERA the next year:
  - Scherzer, 2014-2015
  - Jon Lester, 2014-2015
- 15 of the 17 (88.2%) saw a decline in pWAR AND ERA. 12 of them (80% of the 15, 70.6% of of all the free agents) saw a decrease in ERA or pWAR by 2.0+
- Only 5 of the 17 were under 30 at the end of their first year of the new contract (Barry Zito, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto). Only 2 of the 5 (Scherzer and Lester) saw an increase in pWAR or ERA
- None of these free agent pitchers were paid anything close to $250 million. The largest of their contracts went to:
  - David Price, 2015-2016 (7 years, $217 million)
  - Max Scherzer, 2014-2015 (7 years, $210 million)
  - Zack Greinke, 2015-2016 (6 years, $206.5 million)
  - Of these 3, only Scherzer saw an improvement in pWAR OR ERA

The Verdict

Very few of the free agents since 2006 saw their WAR, OPS, or ERA improve on their new contract. You have to take into consideration that Harper and Machado are younger than any of these free agents. However, 3 of the 4 free agent batters who saw an increase in WAR or OPS were actually 30 or older. This may be due to the fact that it’s easier to judge an older free agent. But both Harper and Machado entered the league as teenagers and have proven themselves throughout the years. Finding the right young free agent is hard, as it’s not everyday that two proven 26-year old sluggers hit the open market in one off-season. I also saw different results among free agent pitchers, as both pitchers who saw either their ERA or WAR improve on their new contract were under 30. Plus, both of the free agent batters who saw their stats improve had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0 the year before signing, just like Harper and Machado did in 2018. However, it’s not like the teams in the market for Harper and Machado necessarily expect better stats throughout their new contract, especially if they’re looking to sign 8-12 year deals. Some might not even expect improvement from 2018 to 2019. But you should expect your $300 million dollar free agent to improve the next year.

The real question is, should anyone (even the Dodgers) pay Harper or Machado $300 million? Similar contracts that have been signed in the last 10-12 years have not ended up working out so well. Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $275 million deal with the Yankees in 2008 (the most among the free agents I researched). He was a star player for the Yankees early on in the contract, but his stats saw a decline in Year 1 of the contract, and by 2015, his stats had declined significantly. Maybe the steroids had something to do with it (2014 was the year he missed for steroids), but he was no longer the same A-Rod when he returned from his suspension, and he ended up retiring the year before his contract expired.

The only other free agent batter who even came close to receiving that kind of contract was 2B Robinson Cano, who signed for 10 years, $240 million with the Mariners in 2014. Things have worked out in the first half of his contract, but he didn’t quite play at the level he did with the Yankees. Who knows, maybe he will improve after being traded to the Mets and returning to New York City, but so far, he has begun to slowly decline during his new contract. He’s still a key piece in the lineup, but he made even more of an impact with the Yanks.

Harper and Machado are a unique situation, but it would be silly to give them $300 million only for them to decline significantly. I can’t see any team giving Harper or Machado much more than A-Rod without regretting it later. They are younger and Harper nearly won the Triple Crown in 2015, so maybe they’re worth a little more, but not $300 million. I don’t think Machado is worth more than A-Rod, and his attitude has turned some teams off. I think he goes to the White Sox, but it would be ridiculous to give him much more than $25 million/year. A 10 year, $260 million deal could work. As for Harper, he may be worth a little more due to his MVP season, and the Dodgers should be willing to bid a little more after their trade with Cincinnati. But he’s still not worth $300 million or more. 9 years, $288 million would be more reasonable. The Dodgers may end up giving him over $300 million, but I don’t think it’s worth it.

That’s all for this edition of Baseball Bits. Stay tuned for more MLB coverage soon, including my MLB 2019 Season Predictions (which will come after the NFL season ends and Harper and Machado finally sign).

October Sports Mania: A Busy Month in Boston Sports

October 24, 2018October 28, 2018 Andrew Roberts Bruins, Celtics, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Patriots, Red Sox 'Stros, 76ers, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Cora, Astros, Bears, Bills, Blake Griffin, Boston, Boston Bruins, Boston Celtics, Boston Red Sox, Bruins, Buffalo, Buffalo Bills, Canada, Canadiens, Canucks, Carolina, Carolina Hurricanes, Celtics, Celts, Chicago, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Colts, Detroit, Detroit Pistons, Dodgers, Edmonton, Edmonton Oilers, Flyers, Green Bay, Green Bay Packers, Habs, Houston, Houston Astros, Hurricanes, Indianapolis, Indianapolis Colts, Indy, J.D. Martinez, Josh Allen, Josh Gordon, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, KC, KC Chiefs, Knicks, LA, LA Dodgers, LeSean McCoy, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Magic, MLB, Montreal, Montreal Canadiens, NBA, NBA Predictions, New England, New England Patriots, New York, New York Knicks, New York Yankees, NFL, NHL, NY, NY Knicks, NY Yankees, October Sports Mania, Oilers, OKC, OKC Thunder, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando, Orlando Magic, Pack, Packers, Patriots, Pats, Philadelphia, Philadelphia 76ers, Philadelphia Flyers, Philly, Pistons, Raptors, Red Sox, Sixers, Sox, Thunder, Toronto, Toronto Raptors, Vancouver, Vancouver Canucks, world series, Yankees, Yanks

If you’re a Boston sports fan, you may have noticed an unusual amount of Boston teams playing lately. Right now, Boston is the only city with an MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL team that are all in season. From October 16 to October 31, there could be 16 consecutive days of Boston sports (depending on how the Red Sox do in the World Series). From October 3 to October 31, there could be as many as 39 Boston sports events. If the Red Sox hadn’t defeated the Astros in 5, all four teams would have played in one weekend. So far, it’s gone very well, as Boston sports teams have a 16-6-2 win-loss record this October. I’m calling it October Sports Mania, and today, I will give an update on all 4 teams with my thoughts during this time of madness.

MLB: Boston Red Sox

Regular Season Record: 108-54

Record in October: 7-2

Current Status: Won American League, Made World Series

Context: For the first time in 5 years, the Red Sox have made the World Series! They have made it three other times in the 21st century, and they haven’t lost in a 21st century World Series appearance. This time, they take on the Dodgers in what could be one of the best World Series’ of the 21st century. Game 1 went down October 23, as Chris Sale faced Clayton Kershaw and the Red Sox won in a surprising slugfest. Who will win this exciting series? I’m calling Red Sox in 6 or 7 games. But considering that I have to get to school at 7:20 AM every day and the games start at 8:00 or 8:15 PM (some on school nights), I may not see every minute live like I would want to.

Note to commissioner: Please make World Series games start earlier. A 6PM start, like the Super Bowl, would be nice.

October Schedule

Past Games

10/5/2018 vs. NYY: W, 5-4 (ALDS Game 1, BOS leads 1-0)
10/6/2018 vs. NYY: L, 6-2 (ALDS Game 2, series tied 1-1)
10/8/2018 @ NYY: W, 16-1 (ALDS Game 3, BOS leads 2-1)
10/9/2018 @ NYY: W, 4-3 (ALDS Game 4, BOS wins 3-1)
10/13/2018 vs. HOU, L, 7-2 (ALCS Game 1, HOU leads 1-0)
10/14/2018 vs. HOU, W, 7-5 (ALCS Game 2, series tied 1-1)
10/16/2018 @ HOU, W, 8-2 (ALCS Game 3, BOS leads 2-1)
10/17/2018 @ HOU, W, 8-6 (ALCS Game 4, BOS leads 3-1)
10/18/2018 @ HOU, W, 4-1 (ALCS Game 5, BOS wins 4-1)
10/23/2018 vs. LAD, W, 8-4 (World Series Game 1, BOS leads 1-0)

Upcoming Games

10/24/2018 vs. LAD (World Series Game 2)
10/26/2018 @ LAD (World Series Game 3)
10/30/2018 vs. LAD (World Series Game 6, if necessary)
10/31/2018 vs. LAD (World Series Game 7, if necessary)

My Thoughts on Them So Far This Month

The Red Sox dominated all season after the addition of star hitter J.D. Martinez and manager Alex Cora. But in both 2016 and 2017, they choked in the playoffs. I had confidence in them against the Yankees in the ALDS, but that confidence was weaker due to these chokes and the fact that the Yankees were also a Top 3 MLB team this year. The Sox also had regressed throughout the month of September. But when they faced the Yankees in the ALDS, they returned to form. The bullpen was clutch and the lineup had awoken. They rode the momentum into the ALCS. It wasn’t looking good after Game 1, but they easily defeated the stacked, defending champion Houston Astros in the final four games. They have now advanced into an exciting World Series against the Dodgers. This series could go either way. Do you think the Sox take it all?

Predictions for the Rest of the Month

This World Series will not be smooth sailing. I didn’t even expect the ALCS to end in 5 games. But I have confidence that the Red Sox will win. As long as Chris Sale is good to go and the lineup keeps making fireworks, we should take this series in 6 or 7 games.

NFL: New England Patriots

Regular Season Record: 5-2

Record in October: 3-0

Current Status: Riding Four Game Win Streak into MNF Division Duel

Context: The Pats are riding a 4 game win streak, and they’ve scored at least 30 points in every game since WR Josh Gordon was activated. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who arguably have the best offense in the league, 43-40. Will they ride the momentum to a Super Bowl victory? This dominant offensive performance will serve them well, but they nearly lost to the Chicago Bears because of bad defense. Their defense is going to need to step up their game for a win on the big stage.

October Schedule

Past Games

10/4/2018 vs. IND: W, 38-24
10/14/2018 vs. KC: W, 43-40
10/21/2018 @ CHI: W, 38-31

Upcoming Games

10/29/2018 @ BUF

My Thoughts on Them so far This Month

I was very impressed by the win against Kansas City. The Chiefs may have one of the worst defenses in the league. But the fact that the Pats also scored 30+ against the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins shows that this offense is here to play. They took down the 5-0 Chiefs, who had averaged 35 points per game and were riding the momentum to dominance.

Predictions for the Rest of the Month

The Patriots should be able to take down the 1-6 Bills easily with QB Josh Allen and RB LeSean McCoy banged-up. But their next major test will come in Week 9 when they host QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. They will need their best defense in that game.

NBA: Boston Celtics

Regular Season Record: 2-2

October Record: 2-2

Current Status: Off to Slow Start, Hoping to Rebound for Big Year

Context: The Celtics are off to a slow start. They did take down the 76ers and Knicks, but they fell to the Kawhi Leonard-led Raptors in Toronto and suffered an embarrassing loss when hosting the Orlando Magic on Monday. Will they pick up the pace and contend for a championship?

October Schedule

Past Games

10/16/2018 vs. PHI, W, 105-87
10/19/2018 @ TOR, L, 113-101
10/20/2018 @ NYK, W, 103-101
10/22/2018 vs. ORL, L, 93-90

Upcoming Games

10/25/2018 @ OKC
10/27/2018 @ DET
10/30/2018 vs. DET

My Thoughts on Them so far This Month

I’m not so worried about the Celtics despite a rough start. They topped the 76ers (told you they would regress) by almost 20 and got past the Knicks in New York. Their loss to Toronto is understandable. The Raptors have only improved after the Kawhi Leonard trade and I did not expect the Celts to come to Toronto and win easily. As for the loss to Orlando, it was a little disappointing. But the Magic have a strong young core that could surprise a lot of people this year. I would not be concerned if they struggle in Oklahoma City and Detroit, both of whom I see contending. (Note: I’m pretty sure I was right about the Pistons in my NBA Predictions, Blake Griffin put up 50 against the Sixers).

Predictions for the Rest of the Month

Expect them to split in two games against an improved Detroit Pistons squad. I think their next game against Oklahoma City could go either way. But even if they start 3-4, I think they’ll pull it together and contend for a title in the long run.

NHL: Boston Bruins

Regular Season Record: 5-2-2 (12 PTS)

October Record: 5-2-2 (12 PTS)

Current Status: So-So in Canada, Come Home Thursday

Context: After a shaky four game road trip across Canada, the Bruins come home to face the Flyers and Canadiens. Montreal has been off to a strong start, and Philly has been alright as well, so wins won’t come easy over these next couple games either.

October Schedule

Past Games

10/3/2018 @ WSH, L, 7-0
10/4/2018 @ BUF, W, 4-0
10/8/2018 vs. OTT, W, 6-3
10/11/2018 vs. EDM, W, 4-1
10/13/2018 vs. DET, W, 8-2
10/17/2018 @ CGY, L, 5-2
10/18/2018 @ EDM, OTL, 3-2
10/20/2018 @ VAN, OTL, 2-1
10/23/2018 @ OTT, W, 4-1

Upcoming Games

10/25/2018 vs. PHI
10/27/2018 vs. MTL
10/30/2018 @ CAR

My Thoughts on them so far This Month

The Bruins might not be top Stanley Cup contenders, but it seems that this young, talented team has picked up where they left off last year. They are still a playoff team for sure and have appeared to be one of the better teams in the league. I’m a little concerned about their losses to the Oilers and Canucks, but it’s early in the season, and they’ve been doing fine otherwise.

Predictions for the Rest of the Month

Look for more of the same heading into the end of the month. I could see them taking down Philly and Montreal in close home games, and I would expect them to give the Hurricanes a wake-up call after their surprisingly strong start. I had anticipated that the Hurricanes would start like this given their schedule, but trust me, it will not last that much longer.

That’s all for today. I hope you enjoy the rest of this crazy month in sports, and stay tuned for more articles on all four teams soon.

My 2018 MLB Playoff Bracket/Predictions

October 2, 2018October 3, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized 'Stros, A's, Aaron Judge, AL Wild Card, AL Wild Card Game, ALCS, ALDS, American League, Astros, Athletics, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Brew Crew, Brewers, Carlos Carrasco, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Colorado, Colorado Rockies, Corey Kluber, Craig Kimbrel, Cubbies, Cubs, David Price, Dodgers, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, J.D. Martinez, Justin Verlander, LA, LA Dodgers, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Manny Machado, Milwaukee, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, MLB Playoffs, Mookie Betts, National League, New York, New York Yankees, NL Wild Card, NL Wild Card Game, NLCS, NLDS, NY, NY Yankees, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Playoffs, Red Sox, Red Sox Nation, Rockies, Sox, Trevor Bauer, Tribe, Wild Card Round, world series, Yankees, Yanks

The MLB Playoff Bracket is set after yesterday’s tiebreaker games, and the MLB playoffs begin tonight at 8:00 PM. Above is my complete bracket for the MLB Playoff Challenge. Below is a brief look at each match-up. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.

American League

AL Wild Card Game

(4) New York Yankees over Oakland Athletics (5)

Oakland’s pitching staff has been better this year, but I do not see their rotation as an elite playoff rotation. The Yankees lineup will tear this pitching staff apart, led by the home run hitting duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

ALDS

(1) Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees (4) , 3-2

The Yankees have given Boston a hard time, so I think this series will be close. The Yankees have been able to dominate against certain Red Sox starters such as David Price. But the Red Sox have the home-field advantage, and they have two MVP-caliber players in their lineup, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. The Sox lineup has the depth and talent to outdo the Yankees pitching staff.

(2) Houston Astros over Cleveland Indians (3) , 3-0

The Astros have most of what they had in last year’s World Series: a stacked lineup filled with youth, power, and speed and a dominant playoff rotation. They come in to this series with a weaker bullpen though. Both of these lineups are playoff-caliber, but I see this series as a battle of two of the league’s top rotations, the Astros led by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, and the Indians led by Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco. These games will be low scoring, but I see the Astros sweeping as their lineup is able to manage the tough opposing pitching more easily.

ALCS

(1) Boston Red Sox over Houston Astros (2) , 4-3

The Astros have one of the best rotations in the league plus an amazing lineup. But the Red Sox have one thing Houston doesn’t. A strong closer in Craig Kimbrel. If their rotation can hold up for a good portion of the series and their offense gets going like it has for a lot of the season, I think they can do something they haven’t done much of this year: beating the other elite teams. The Red Sox have taken advantage of their easy match-ups, but it’s time for them to step it up when it matters.

National League

NL Wild Card Game

(4) Chicago Cubs over Colorado Rockies (5)

The Rockies lineup is very talented, but despite improvement in 2018 that got them here, I don’t see their pitching holding up on the road against a well-rounded Cubs team. Chicago will take advantage of the Rockies’ weak pitching staff, get out to an early lead, and their pitching staff will be able to help the Cubs hold it easily.

NLDS

(4) Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (1) , 3-1

The Brewers rode their momentum to a division title. They have a young, talented lineup that’s mostly a product of the 2017-18 off-season and a huge MLB Trade Deadline. But I think this Brewers lineup is containable, and if there’s any pitching staff in the National League that can contain them, it’s the Cubs. The Cubs should also thrive offensively against a young Brewers rotation that’s still developing.

(2) Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (3) , 3-1

Led by young talent, the Braves pulled out an NL East victory. However, I think they rode easy division competition to this victory. Their rotation is okay, but I don’t see their lineup as playoff caliber. The Nationals would likely be here if they weren’t so hampered by injuries this season. They may have won it all. But the Dodgers can contain a young, developing team like the Braves. Led by Trade Deadline acquisition Manny Machado, Their lineup has the power and talent to give this Atlanta rotation trouble, and their deep pitching staff will benefit them significantly. I see this series as an easy win for the Dodgers.

NLCS

(4) Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Dodgers (2) , 4-3

This will be a very interesting series. The 2016 World Series champion against the 2017 World Series runner-up. The Dodgers still have a World Series-caliber roster. Their rotation is more than capable, and they come in with a stronger offensive attack this year. But the Cubs have a deep, young lineup, and although they might struggle against this solid Dodgers rotation, I could see them taking advantage of a weak Dodger bullpen. The Dodgers will put up a serious fight, but I think the Cubs pitching staff can contain them for a good portion of the series.

World Series

(1) Boston Red Sox over Chicago Cubs (4) , 4-3

I think this is the year for the Red Sox. Two of Boston’s last three World Series titles were partially due to momentum. The Cubs have a World Series caliber roster. They haven’t seen the Red Sox yet, and they may very well be a better team. The NL was a very competitive league, while the AL was a league of extremes. Chicago’s record may very well be an NL equivalent of the Red Sox’s record.

But I think the Red Sox will ride the momentum they gather in the ALDS and ALCS to win the World Series. Their pitching will need to finally hold it together, but I think they are capable, as long as they can rely on the momentum this talented lineup gathers. It won’t be easy against a strong, well-rounded Cubs team, but I don’t think Red Sox Nation should give up hope.

That’s all for my MLB Playoff Predictions. Stay tuned for more baseball articles.

Baseball Bits #10: Not many 100 Win Teams win World Series

September 12, 2018September 12, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized A's, American League, Astros, Athletics, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball Bits, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Colorado Rockies, Cubs, Dodgers, Houston, Houston Astros, Jays, LA, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, National League, Nationals, Nats, New York, New York Yankees, O's, Oakland Athletics, Orioles, Red Sox, Rockies, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington, Washington Nationals, world series, Yankees

As I publish this post, the Sox need only one win to reach 100 for the first time since 1946. Last year, 3 of the 6 division winners were 100-win teams. But what does this mean for the Red Sox hopes for the post season success?

The American League is a league of extremes. 3 teams in the AL are on pace to win 100 games this year and 1 more is on pace to be very close. But there are a lot of teams in the American League who are on pace for close to 100 losses. The Orioles have already lost 103 games and most teams have 15-20 games left! The 3 worst teams by record are in the American League, and 6 AL teams have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The National League has only 3 teams that have been eliminated so far.

The American League playoff picture is practically locked up, while no National League team has even come close to clinching a playoff berth. It’s likely going to come down to the final week in the NL and tiebreakers may be a factor.

Even though the top AL teams will likely finish with a better record, does this mean they are better teams? I don’t think so. Due to the tough competition, talented National League teams have been challenged to reach win totals of some of the top AL teams. For example, the Washington Nationals aren’t even a .500 team. That being said, I think a National League team could win the World Series this year, giving a wake-up call to the AL because regular season wins won’t mean anything once the playoffs start.

I’ve done some research on every 100-win team in the 162-game era. I wrote down the team, the year they did it, their final record, and how they did in the playoffs. Based on 100-win teams of the past, what are the odds the Red Sox or one of the other 100-win teams to win the World Series? Will these teams choke early in the playoffs? (Note: Considering that there could be 3-4 from the American League, it is unlikely that all of them do). Check out my research below and keep reading to find out what the research says and how I interpreted it.

The Research

Baseball Bits #10_ 100-Win Teams – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

There have been 57 100-win teams in the 162-game era
Only 15 of the 57 (26.3 %) went on to win the World Series, even though 30 of the 57 (52.6%) made it to the World Series.
Since the LDS began, there have only been 26 100-win teams. 12 of them (46.15%) lost in the LDS
13 of the 57 100-win teams (22.8%) lost in the LCS
2 of the 57 (3.5%) 100-win teams missed the playoffs entirely. These two teams both played in the era before any playoffs beyond the World Series
The Red Sox reached 100 wins three times before the 162-game era: they won the World Series in two of those years
However, the Red Sox have yet to have a 100-win season in the 162-game era
The Yankees have had 8 100-win seasons in the 162-game era, winning the World Series in 3 of them
The best team in 162-game MLB history (the 2001 Mariners) went 116-46 and went on to lose in the ALCS
The 2018 Red Sox are on pace to win 111 games, which would make them the third best team in the 162-game era by record behind the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees (who lost in the ALDS)
Each of the last two World Series winners were 100-win teams
There have been 15 seasons in the 162-game era with multiple 100-win teams
5 of these seasons had three 100-win teams – in only 2 of those years did one of the 3 100-win teams win the World Series
The Red Sox, Yankees (on pace for 101), and Astros (on pace for 102) are all on pace for 100 wins this year, and Athletics (98) are close
The best team in the 162-game era to win a World Series went 114-48 (The 1998 Yankees)
The best team in the 162-game era to miss out on the LCS went 103-59 (The 2002 Athletics)

The Verdict

The fact that an 100-win team won the World Series in each of the last 2 years is very promising. There were three 100-win teams last year and three on pace to do it this year, so I think one of them will pull off a World Series victory. But will it be the Red Sox? The Astros just outplayed the Red Sox in their most recent series and won the series 2-1, and the Yankees always give Boston a hard time in the playoffs. You also have to consider how easy the competition is in the American League compared to the National League. Who knows, there might have been no 100-win teams this year if the MLB’s leagues were more balanced.

However, I don’t think the Red Sox will choke in the ALDS, even though 12 of the 26 100-game winners in the ALDS era did. They are on pace for 110 wins. The winning-est team that missed the LCS was the 2002 Oakland Athletics, who were 103-59. But I do think there’s a good chance the Yankees come close to topping the Red Sox in the ALDS, and there’s an even better chance the Astros beat them in the ALCS to advance to the World Series. In the end, I think the World Series goes to one of these teams: the Astros, the Red Sox, the Cubs (best NL team), the Dodgers (always a contender), or the Rockies (a young team with a stacked lineup and drastically improving pitching).

I’ll be going to the game tonight against Toronto. Will David Price lead us to our 100th victory? We’ll all find out tonight.

UPDATE: I just witnessed Red Sox history! The Red Sox have reached 100 wins. Hopefully they become the 16th 100-win team in the 162-game era to win the World Series.

Red Sox Report: Sox Slowing Down, But It’s Understandable

May 6, 2018May 6, 2018 Andrew Roberts Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Uncategorized 'Stros, A's, Aaron Hicks, Anaheim, Angels, Astros, Athletics, Austin Maddox, Baseball Bits, Blue Jays, Bobby Poyner, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brock Holt, C.C. Sabathia, Chris Sale, Christian Vazquez, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Rodriguez, fenway Park, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Hanley Ramirez, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jays, Joe Kelly, Johnny Mize, Jordan Montgomery, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, KC Royals, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Manny Machado, Marathon Monday, Marco Hernandez, Minnesota, Minnesota Twins, MLB, Mookie Betts, New York, New York Yankees, Oakland, Oakland Athletics, Paw Sox, Pawtucket, Pawtucket Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Royals, Sammy Sosa, Sandy Leon, Sean Manaea, Sox, Steven Wright, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Ted Williams, Texas, Texas Rangers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Twins, Tyler Thornburg, world series, Xander Bogaerts, Yankee Stadium, Yankees, Yanks

When the Red Sox began the season 17-2, I knew they would not be able to finish the season going at that pace. So it is understandable that the Red Sox have gone 8-7 in their last 15 games. It does not mean the Red Sox are a fluke. They have still shown signs in the last 14 games that they are capable contenders. But they cannot win every game, and 8 to 10-game winning streaks interrupted by just a loss or two is not realistic for any team to maintain.

But Mookie Betts is still on fire, and Hanley Ramirez has still put up much better numbers to start 2018. J.D. Martinez has also begun to heat up. Betts has gotten to the point in his hot streak where he’s breaking HR records. We will look at Betts’ records, the cooling off of the Red Sox, and much more in this edition of the Red Sox Report.

Red Sox Beginning to Cool Off, But It’s Not a Major Concern

As I said above, although the Sox have cooled off, the Red Sox have still shown qualities of an elite playoff contender. I still think they have the potential to make a deep run this year. What concerns me a little bit is who they have been losing to. They lost a series to the Rays to start their most recent homestand. Tampa barely has a starting rotation. But even a blind squirrel eventually finds an acorn. They also struggled and got no-hit against the Athletics. The A’s are not terrible, they have a powerful young lineup and an improving rotation. But after a 17-2 start, I did not expect A’s SP Sean Manaea to no-hit the Red Sox. It shows that our lineup is very streaky, feast or famine.

Struggles against the mediocre teams is a problem, but the Red Sox have been pretty good against tough opponents like the Angels and Blue Jays. What the Red Sox need right now is to be competitive against playoff contenders. If they continue to prove that they are capable of that, I will be much more confident in their World Series chances. But if they cannot show up against subpar teams, how will they be able to continue to thrive against contenders?

Sox Lineup Has Been Streaky But Has High Ceiling

The Red Sox lineup has really struggled at times. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their 9 losses so far. But when the lineup is on a good streak, it can carry the team. At its best, this lineup could probably carry the Red Sox all the way to the World Series. But several guys have failed to come through in recent weeks. Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all batting under .200, and Eduardo Nunez hasn’t looked like the same guy that boosted the Red Sox lineup on the brink of contention. Everyone in this lineup has struggled at some point this season.

But when on a hot streak, this lineup can take the league by storm. There were several hot hitters that led us to our amazing start, and a few of our hitters are still on fire. J.D. Martinez is 21 for his last 47 (.447) and has hit 3 dingers in that span. Mookie Betts has been on fire all season. Read more about Betts’ hot streak in the next section.

Mookie Betts Still On Fire, Now He’s Making History

Betts is batting .352 (5th in the league) with 13 home runs (leading the league) and a 1.257 OPS (leading the league) on the season. In addition, he’s 12 for his last 23 (.522). He has hit 11 of the homers in his last 15 games and has had two 3 HR games this season (one soon after Marathon Monday in Anaheim, and another at Fenway this week against the Royals). It’s only the start of May, and he had these 3 HR games within two weeks of each other. He also had a pair of 3 HR games back in 2016. He and Johnny Mize are the only players to ever have a pair of 3 HR games two times in their career.

Betts also passed Ted Williams for the most 3-HR games in team history. Betts is only 25. He has plenty of time in his career for more multi-HR games. Could he become the first person to have two 3-HR games in three different seasons? Could he eventually break the MLB 3 HR game record? It is currently held by Mize and Sammy Sosa (6). Betts is in the Top 10 with 4. Betts is tied for 2nd with Manny Machado for multi-HR games since 2016 (11). Betts and Machado are behind just Giancarlo Stanton (14). Betts is more than just our leadoff hitter. He is one of baseball’s biggest stars. But there is an argument for why he should remain our leadoff hitter, and I look at that in my next Baseball Bits.

Injury Report: Thornburg Begins Rehab, Several Activated Over Last Two Weeks

The Red Sox have continued to be hit by the injury bug. Brock Holt went on the DL in late April with a hamstring strain. Mookie Betts was also hurt for a few days in late April with hamstring issues but has since returned and continued to dominate. He also left today’s game with a wrist injury. But several of our previously injured players have returned over the last couple of weeks. Xander Bogaerts was activated last weekend, and he lost his hot streak on the DL, but he went 3-4 in his first game back and has continued to hit well, batting .303 since his return. Bobby Poyner has also returned from his injury but did not return to the big league roster until May 4th after a stint with the Paw Sox.

Steven Wright has returned from the DL too, but he is currently serving a 15-game domestic violence suspension. Joe Kelly recently returned from his 6-game suspension after the Sox-Yankees brawl in April. Eduardo Rodriguez was also out for a few days on a family medical leave but was activated on the 5th to start against the Rangers. He did not miss a start during his absence. Tyler Thornburg, Austin Maddox, Marco Hernandez, Brock Holt, and Dustin Pedroia are the players that remain on the DL. Thornburg has begun his rehab assignment, and Pedroia has been rehabbing at extended spring training. Pedey is targeting a May 25 big league return. Brock Holt is expected to return next week.

Sox Have Caught a Break vs. Royals, Rangers, But Round 2 With Flaming Hot Yankees Ahead

After a tough road trip, the Red Sox have enjoyed a relatively easy schedule over the last week and a half. They have played the Rays, Royals, and Rangers. Despite having a tough time against the Rays (who have won 11 of their last 14 on a hot streak), the Red Sox have caught a break against the Royals and Rangers, who they won 5 of 7 against. But after that, the Red Sox could have another difficult stretch ahead, starting with a 3 game series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 15, and this was against playoff contenders.

The Yanks have swept the Twins, Indians, and Angels, and took 3 of 4 in Houston. If the Yankees continue to thrive against Boston, they will be proven as serious contenders. But Boston had an impressive 17-2 stretch of their own. Although it may not have been against as difficult opponents, the Sox did take 2 out of 3 when they hosted the Yankees. However, the Yankees were without C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Hicks in that series. They have also called up Gleyber Torres, who has done very well since that series. They have lost Jordan Montgomery and a couple relievers to the DL since the series though.

That’s all for this edition of the Red Sox Report. Stay tuned for more Red Sox posts coming soon.

Big Night For Boston: Sox, Bruins Win On Big Stage

April 14, 2018April 15, 2018 Andrew Roberts Bruins, Game Recaps, MLB, NHL, Red Sox, Uncategorized Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Atlantic Division, B's, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Benny, Boston, Boston Bruins, Boston Red Sox, Brock Holt, Bruins, David Backes, E-Rod, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Gary Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr., JBJ, Leafs, Los Angeles Angels, Maple Leafs, Marcus Walden, Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts, Nazem Kadri, New York, New York Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Rick Nash, Rick Porcello, Riley Nash, Sandy Leon, Sonny Gray, Sox, Stanley Cup Playoffs, TD Garden, Tommy Wingels, Toronto, Toronto Maple Leafs, world series, Yankees, Yanks, Zach Hyman

Boston sports fans needed 2 TVs on Thursday night as the Red Sox battled the Yankees in the series rubber match and the Bruins kicked off their 2018 playoff hockey against a tough Toronto squad. Most fans likely flipped back and forth and if they were lucky didn’t miss a run or goal and both teams dominated. The Sox have now won three in a row after more dominance today and the Bruins are on tonight so no flipping is needed.

The Red Sox topped the Yankees 6-3, winning their first series of 2018 against New York. The Sox looked very good throughout the series. Although both teams are suffering numerous injuries, I think this is a good sign that the Red Sox may be ready to contend for a World Series title. Some people believed the opposite before this series, as the Red Sox had faced only rebuilding teams before their series against the Yanks. If they can do well against the 12-3 Los Angeles Angels and start next week’s west coast road trip off right, that will continue to solidify the Red Sox position as a true contender to win the AL East again and maybe go further.

While the Bruins limped into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 5 to miss a chance to lock down the #1 seed, they returned to midseason form Thursday and dominated in Game 1. They blew out Toronto 5-1. The Bruins refused to let injuries hold them back, and the depth of their roster helped them. If the Bruins can bring the same intensity for the rest of the series, the Maple Leafs may struggle to win a game, let alone the series. The top line of Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak played extremely well and their play really shined on the power play as the Bruins were 3 for 6, scoring one PP goal in each period.

Please read on for a few more details on the big night for the Sox and B’s.

Porcello Dominant, Red Sox Cruise to Victory

The Red Sox came out aggressive fearing a rain-shortened game and put up 6 runs over the first 3 innings on their way to victory over the Yankees, 6-3. Rick Porcello was dominant on the mound and had a no-hitter through six and finished with seven scoreless innings, giving up just two hits. Porcello stayed warm waiting out a rain delay after five innings but Rick came back into the game showing no ill effects from the delay. His no-hitter came to an end in the 7th inning when Yankees star hitter Aaron Judge doubled to break it up.

The Red Sox grabbed hold of a lead early in the game. Hanley Ramirez, who has been on fire of late, left the game in the 1st after being hit in the hand by Sonny Gray but that did not stop the Red Sox. Eduardo Nunez led off in the next inning with a base hit. The cold was giving him knee discomfort as he raced down the first base line but he decided to keep on playing. JBJ walked to make it 1st and 2nd, and Sandy Leon drove in the run with a single. Brock Holt got on base with another walk to load the bases, and all three runners advanced one base when Mookie Betts hit a deep sac fly, making it 2-0 Red Sox with men on 2nd and 3rd. Andrew Benintendi then grounded to second base with the infield in. The Yankees chose to throw home but the throw bounced in by Sanchez and allowed Leon to score. Holt advanced to 3rd and Benny had time to advance to 2nd. Mitch Moreland, in off the bench for Hanley, drove in the fourth run with a single despite limited playing time this year.

The Sox scored again the 3rd. Eduardo Nunez doubled to right, and JBJ hit a ground rule double to knock him in. Sandy Leon struck out on a pitch in the dirt that got away. Another bad defensive choice by the Yankees allowed Leon to reach as Gary Sanchez fired to 3rd but JBJ slid in safely. Mookie Betts knocked him in with a ground ball to the right side, 6-0 Boston. Betts ended up going 0 for 4 but he had 2 RBI on the night.

The Yankees did not score until the top of the 9th when reliever Marcus Walden gave up a bases-clearing double to Gary Sanchez with the bases loaded. Craig Kimbrel came in to finish the job, and the Red Sox won 6-3.

Injury Update: Hanley Ramirez did suffer a wrist contusion but avoided a more serious injury. He was out of the lineup Friday against Baltimore but returned today with a Home Run.

What’s Next: The Red Sox have taken the first 2 games against the Orioles in a 4-game Fenway series as Eduardo Rodriguez dominated again against his former team as he has struck out more batters against the Orioles than any other opponent in his career. The Sox won easily 7-3. Velazquez gave up just 2 runs in 5 strong innings as the Sox cruised to a 10-3 victory and weather permitting hope Sale can keep the strong pitching streak for Sox starters going.

Bruins Dominate vs. Leafs, Led By Power Play success

The Bruins dominated in Game 1 of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They topped a strong Toronto Maple Leafs squad, 5-1, with David Backes scoring one goal and being robbed of a second. Rick Nash also made an impact returning after a long absence. The Bruins dominated in their power plays, scoring a power-play goal in every period. One PP goal was during a 5-minute major power play due to a gruesome hit Nazem Kadri put on Tommy Wingels, knocking him out of the game. Kadri is suspended for the next 3 games of the series, and if the Bruins continue to dominate, he may not play another game this season.

Zach Hyman scored the only goal for Toronto when the Leafs tied it up in the 1st period. After that, the Leafs fell out of it due to 4 unanswered Bruins goals.

Injury Update: Wingels is out for Game 2 after being hit by Kadri. Riley Nash is doubtful with an ear laceration. Donato is playing for Wingels.

What’s Next: The Bruins take on the Leafs at the TD Garden again tonight. It is being aired on prime time on NBC. The Bruins have jumped out to a 5-2 lead early in the 2nd period, going 2 for 2 on the power play and scoring another 4 unanswered goals to begin the game.

Stay tuned for more Red Sox and Bruins coverage soon, including my latest Red Sox Report.

Baseball Bits #1: Only Four Teams To Win World Series with Higher ERA than 2016 Red Sox

August 4, 2016August 4, 2016 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized 1906 White Sox, 1907 Cubs, 1910 Philadelphia Athletics, 1987 Twins, 1996 Yankees, 2000 Yankees, 2006 Cardinals, 2009 Yankees, Baseball Bits, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Clay Buchholz, David Price, ERA, MLB, Red Sox, RPG, Runs Per Game, world series

FullSizeRender (16).jpg

The Red Sox have finally had a strong record, but with a tough schedule coming up, can they stay in contention? They have scored plenty of runs this season, but the pitching has struggled. They didn’t make a move at the deadline beyond Drew Pomeranz (who can’t find his groove), and relievers Fernando Abad (who struggled) and Brad Ziegler (who surprisingly has thrived). The Red Sox have put up a 4.33 team ERA this season. Only four teams have won the World Series with a higher ERA. If the Red Sox don’t improve their pitching, could they be in trouble, or could they be the next team. Well I’ve done research to prove my point, and in this post, I will show you what I came up with and what we can conclude about the World Series hopes of this year’s Red Sox team.

Below is a PDF with all my research. I have put together the World Series winning and losing teams’ ERAs and runs per game. Below the PDF are some “Baseball Bits” I found after the research.

Baseball Bits (Update) — World Series Team Stats from 1903 to present — Year Descending — 2016-08-03

World Series Teams ERA and Runs Per Game (RPG)

Only 4 Teams (that’s just 3.6%!) have won the World Series with an ERA over the Red Sox’s 2016 ERA to date:

o 2006 Cardinals (Last To Do It)

o 2000 Yankees

o 1996 Yankees

o 1987 Twins (First To Do It)

Last team to win WS with ERA over Red Sox’s current 4.33: 2006 Cardinals
Last team to win WS with ERA over 4.00: 2009 Yankees
Only 6 teams have made the WS with ERA over 4.33
Only 12 teams have Won the WS with ERA over 4.00, the first being the 1929 Cubs
21 teams have made the WS with ERA over 4.00, just 9.4%!
3 teams have won the WS with ERA under 2.00:

o 1910 Philadelphia Athletics

o 1907 Cubs (1.73 ERA is lowest by WS winner)

o 1906 White Sox

76% of the teams that made the WS with ERA over 4.00 had 5.00 or more RPG and many others were close to 5 RPG
Typically teams that made the WS with an ERA over 4.00 did it in a hitter favored baseball year

The Verdict

In conclusion, good team pitching beats good team hitting when it come to the World Series. If the Red Sox score enough runs per game in this hitter friendly season, they could have a chance to win it all. However, it would’ve helped to trade for a pitcher and it will also help to have pitching improvement, especially David Price and Clay Buchholz. You never know because in the 4 occasions when teams have won the WS with a higher team ERA, it’s been in the last 30 years.

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