Sale leads to first Polar Park sellout, WooSox win on Autism Acceptance Day

It was Autism Acceptance Day at Polar Park and it was a beautiful day for some baseball. The WooSox faced the Toronto Blue Jays AAA affiliates, the Buffalo Bisons. Before the game, the WooSox honored many organizations that support people affected by autism. The New England Center for Children (NECC), a leader in autism education and training (and the school that taught me to talk) was honored during the pregame ceremony. Many NECC students, teachers, and family members also received tickets to the game.

Autism Acceptance Day was also the first 100% capacity sellout at Polar Park (9,508 fans) as Chris Sale took the mound for a rehab start after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in March 2020.

While Sale’s rehab start made this game even more exciting, large crowds can be a challenge for individuals with autism. As a result, the WooSox added an additional sensory-friendly space in the DCU Club. The Unum Sensory Friendly Room was also open, as it is for every game, along the first base line adjacent to fan services.

I covered the game and events of the day on behalf of the Doug Flutie Jr. Foundation for Autism. I was focusing not only on the game but also on the inclusive environment Polar Park had created.

I caught up with Jared Bouzan, NECC’s Chief Development Officer, before he was honored on the field. I also spoke with Jeff Arnold, a member of the NECC marketing team. Both Jared and Jeff were excited for the events of the day and very appreciative of the WooSox.

Marie Roy, an autistic WooSox employee, was working at the nacho stand. I met Marie last month during the Polar Park open house and caught up with her again at this game at the nacho stand where she works:

Joe Bradlee, WooSox VP of Baseball Operations & Community Relations invited me to come to the park at 1 p.m., three hours before the game, to catch batting practice (BP). It was a pretty incredible experience to be welcomed on the field to cover BP along with several other press members. Many extra media members came to Polar Park for Chris Sale. Red Sox utility player Marwin Gonzalez, like Sale, was also on a rehab assignment and took BP with the team. After BP, I had the chance to interview WooSox first baseman and designated hitter Josh Ockimey as well as WooSox coach Bruce Crabbe.

I also had the chance to speak with reporters like Joe McDonald of the Worcester Telegram (who I had originally met in 2015 during my first press box experience with the Bruins), and Alex Speier, a Boston Globe baseball writer and researcher who is frequently on NESN during Red Sox games to provide unique insight on the players. I was surprised to learn that despite the wealth of information that Alex shares during a game, like the percentage of change-ups a pitcher has thrown all season, that he is a one-man research team. He noted that he comes up with the good questions and then finds the data on the internet.

After covering BP and the pregame ceremony, I found a spot behind home plate next to the press box to watch the game. I was able to see Sale’s warm-up in right field in front of the Worcester Wall, and the game began shortly afterwards.

In the top of the first, the crowd roared as Sale took the mound. Even though he let a couple of baserunners on in the first, he kept the Bisons scoreless. Marwin Gonzalez, who I saw smash a few balls to right field during BP, gave the WooSox an early lead by crushing a solo homer over the Worcester Wall in the bottom of the first.

Over the first three innings, Chris Sale struck out six batters and he looked very sharp in the third inning when hitters Christian Colon, Corey Dickerson, and Tyler White all went down swinging for strike three. I performed some play-by-play from the stands during the top half of the second inning.

The fourth inning wasn’t as easy for Sale as he struggled with his fastball command. Sale gave up his first run in this inning on a pair of doubles. However, if it weren’t for center fielder Tate Matheny leaping up against the wall to rob Kevin Smith of a home run, the Bisons would have taken the lead. Matheny also had a running catch for out #2, with the third out coming on Sale’s seventh strikeout.

In the bottom of the inning, Matheny showed how great defense can lead to offense by hitting a two-run shot over the wall and onto the left field berm. Michael Gettys, who had reached base in all four of his at bats, scored on the HR blast.

Sale left the game with the score 3-1, after throwing 81 pitches, striking out seven, and giving up one run in five innings. Shortly after Sale was done, several media members exited the press box and a few of them asked me if I wanted to go see Chris Sale, so I followed them out of the ballpark.

The WooSox set up a temporary press tent just outside the ballpark specifically for the Chris Sale post game interview. He spoke to the media during the bottom of the 6th inning. I was told that I could observe, as Joe McDonald and Alex Speier asked the bulk of the questions, but I was encouraged to take a spot up close on the side of the tent just before Sale came out to speak.

Sale said he was very encouraged by the results and that this was different than the previous rehab outings. He said he “felt normal” for the first time in a long while during this game. He knows what the Red Sox are doing is special and that he needs to be ready to help them when he rejoins the club.

While Sale was speaking, the WooSox continued to build on their lead as #2 Red Sox prospect (according to MLB.com) Jeter Downs, hit a huge solo shot into deep left field and well past the berm seats.

Buffalo made the game closer in the seventh inning. Nash Knight who had already knocked in the first Bisons run, tripled for his third hit before scoring on a Rodrigo Vigil groundout.

However, Durbin Feltman came in to pitch the last two innings, and prevented the Bisons from scoring any more as the WooSox secured a 4-2 victory. Sale was the winning pitcher with his first official win since August 2019.

After the win, fans headed onto the field for the Sunset Catch. Fans are invited to play catch after every Saturday WooSox game at Polar Park.

I had a thrilling day at Polar Park as I had the opportunity to enjoy all the events of the day as a press member, a fan, and a member of the autism community. I’ll be back at Polar Park again on Friday August 13 to see the game and watch fireworks afterwards, something Polar Park does for every Friday night game. If you haven’t had the chance to go to a game yet, I highly recommend it.

MLB 2021 Predictions: American League

March 29, 2021 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox 2021, A's, AL, AL Central, AL East, AL West, Alex Cora, American League, Angels, Asterisks, Astros, Athletics, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Carlos Carrasco, Chaim Bloom, Chicago, Chicago Sox, Chicago White Sox, Chris Sale, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Detroit, Detroit Tigers, Division, Eloy Jimenez, Enrique Hernandez, Francisco Lindor, George Springer, Houston, Houston Asterisks, Houston Astros, Hunter Dozier, Indians, Jarred Kelenic, Jays, Joey Gallo, Jose Abreu, Jose Berrios, Jose Ramirez, Josh Reddick, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, KC, KC Royals, Kenta Maeda, Khris Davis, Kyle Lewis, LA Angels, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Angels, Lucas Giolito, Luis Robert, Marcus Semien, Mariners, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Mike Trout, Minnesota, Minnesota Twins, Mitch Haniger, MLB, MLB 2021 Predictions, MLB Predictions, New York, New York Yankees, Nick Madigral, NY, NY Yankees, O's, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Orioles, Penn, Pennsylvania, Predictions, Randy Dobnak, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Royals, Seattle, Seattle Mariners, Sox, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas, Texas Rangers, Tigers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Twins, University of Pennsylvania, UPenn, Whit Merrifield, White Sox, Wild Card, Yankees, Yanks, Yasmani Grandal

April is almost here, and when the month begins, so will the MLB season. Just like in my last 7 years writing this blog, I have put together predictions for the season. We only got 60 MLB games last year, but for this year we’ll have a full 162 game season. I just went on my cousin Michael Philipkosky’s podcast, the Master Plan, to discuss all 30 teams, with one episode for the AL and one episode for the NL. You can check out the AL podcast here, and I have my full AL predictions below.

AL East

New York Yankees (96-66, #2 seed)
Toronto Blue Jays (89-73, #5 seed)
Tampa Bay Rays (84-78)
Boston Red Sox (80-82)
Baltimore Orioles (58-104)

I think the Yankees are in a good position to win this division. They lost some of the pitching depth they had last year, but this lineup is still on another level compared to the other teams in the AL East. Even with some injuries last year, the Yankees were able to dominate the AL East, and I expect the same this year. The question is whether they have the pitching staff to go all the way.

This should be a competitive division behind the Yankees. The Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox should all finish somewhat close in the standings. The Jays are really starting to come together. The young talent in the lineup is improving and they’ll be supplemented by new outfielder George Springer and new middle infielder Marcus Semien. Their rotation is also really starting to look sharp.

Tampa was the AL pennant winner last year, but this was a team that was highlighted by its dominant rotation and the Rays lost two of their top three starting pitchers. As a small market team, they tend to subtract in the offseason as opposed to adding. As they lose a key element of their 2020 team, they will see a significant World Series hangover.

The Red Sox should get Chris Sale back towards the end of the year, and when they do they could force the Rays into 4th place. After bringing back Alex Cora and making some underrated signings, I see the Sox finishing around .500 like they did back in 2019. However, this team is hard to read. They have a low floor (they could be a repeat of last year), and a high ceiling (they could potentially contend for a Wild Card). The signings by GM Chaim Bloom have included multiple utility players. Bloom, a University of Pennsylvania alumnus, explained some of his reasoning behind this in a Q&A at a UPenn event on Wednesday. He stated that in the past, utility players were often limited to utility role because they weren’t good enough to play a position every day. However, in modern baseball, there are utility players who can play every day at a variety of positions, like Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez who he signed. These players likely flew under the radar due to the fact that they’re utility guys.

I can’t really see the Orioles competing with these teams. The Orioles have improved since 2019, but their early 2020 success was a bit of a fluke. I think the young talent is starting to come along but it won’t be enough to make a noticeable difference just yet.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox (101-61, #1 seed)
Minnesota Twins (90-72, #4 seed)
Kansas City Royals (77-85)
Cleveland Indians (75-87)
Detroit Tigers (66-96)

The White Sox are really starting to come together. They have a good ace in Lucas Giolito. The lineup is looking great between young talent like Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Nick Madigral and more experienced players like Jose Abreu and Yasmani Grandal. I think they have what it takes to make a deep playoff run this year. I have them ahead of the Twins, who choked in the playoffs last year. Minnesota has a strong rotation headlined by Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, and Randy Dobnak, but their lack of elite lineup talent compared to other top teams is going to hold them back from more than a Wild Card. The Twins should be able secure 2nd place though, as the rest of this division is unlikely to compete.

The Royals have added talent, including starting pitcher Mike Minor, and they have a decent core led by Hunter Dozier and Whit Merrifield. However, I don’t think they have quite enough firepower to contend. I think they will get third place over the Indians, who dealt away Carlos Carrasco and Francisco Lindor in an effort to lower payroll. Star hitter and third baseman Jose Ramirez is still in Cleveland, but the Indians don’t have any other big name hitters. They also lack rotation depth behind defending Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Aside from Bieber and Ramirez, the Indians lack star power. The Tigers got off to a strong start last year thanks to the emergence of outfielder JaCoby Jones. They should perform better than they did in 2019, but I still don’t think they’ll be anywhere close to playoff contention in a 162 game season.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels (87-75, #3 seed)
Houston Astros (84-78)
Oakland Athletics (76-86)
Texas Rangers (65-97)
Seattle Mariners (63-99)

This division is not nearly as strong as it was last year. The Angels always tend to disappoint with a lack of success surrounding star outfielder Mike Trout, but I think they’ll be able to win this weakened division. That doesn’t necessarily imply playoff success. The Angels did add some pitching help and that should put them in position to win the AL West but taking down the Yankees or White Sox will be a difficult feat. The Astros should come close as well, even though they lost outfielders George Springer and Josh Reddick. This lineup’s success between 2017 and 2019 was likely boosted by sign stealing, and the depth of the rotation is slowly dwindling, so I have the Angels edging out Houston here, but it will be close.

The A’s will probably have the biggest drop off in the division. They have a very talented young rotation, but without shortstop Marcus Semien and designated hitter Khris Davis, this lineup is lacking standout hitters. Corner infielders Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are improving at the plate, but that’s not enough lineup talent for a playoff team. I have them falling to third place, but finishing ahead of the Rangers and Mariners.

The Rangers failed to contend last year with an awkward mix of young talent and older players, so they’ve torn it down and prepared for a rebuild headed into this season. Joey Gallo is still here but I don’t expect him to stay for long. Seattle has some young talent that is starting to develop and could have a very strong outfield soon once Kyle Lewis and top prospect Jarred Kelenic fully develop alongside Mitch Haniger. Even with the outfield and the rotation improving, this isn’t the year for Seattle to contend.

That’s all for these American League predictions. I’ll have my NL predictions out in the next couple days. In the meantime, feel free to comment with your thoughts.

Predicting the Shortened 2020 MLB Season: AL and NL East

July 15, 2020July 15, 2020 Andrew Roberts MLB AL East, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, BoSox, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Jays, Marlins, Mets, Miami, Miami Marlins, MLB, MLB 2020 Predictions, MLB Predictions, Nationals, Nats, New York, New York Mets, New York Yankees, NL East, NY Mets, NY Yankees, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Rays, Red Sox, Sox, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, The Master Plan, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington, Washington Nationals, Yankees, Yanks

We are a little over a week away from the start of the MLB season, which will make baseball the first of America’s 4 major sports leagues to return after pausing during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, the first of a three episode 2020 MLB prediction podcast series with my cousin, Michael Philipkosky, was released as a part of his podcast, the Master Plan. This episode covered the AL and NL East, as teams will only be playing divisional match-ups and match-ups against teams in the corresponding NL division.

You can listen to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify using the links below:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mlb-al-nl-east-predictions-for-60-game-mlb-season-andrew/id1495662343?i=1000485080123

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2uxmuwVDzNCjPbhgq6I10H

In addition, I have added both of our standings predictions below alongside my brief breakdown of each of these 10 squads. Keep reading to check that out.

Continue reading →

Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

March 24, 2019March 30, 2019 Andrew Roberts MLB Adrian Beltre, Asdrubal Cabrera, Austin Meadows, Blue Jays, Bo Bichette, Brent Honeywell, Cavan Biggio, Christian Arroyo, Curtis Granderson, Dallas Keuchel, Danny Santana, Dee Gordon, Edwin Diaz, Edwin Encarnacion, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer, Evan Longoria, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ian Kinsler, Jay Bruce, Jays, Jed Lowrie, Jerry Dipoto, Jharel Cotton, Joey Gallo, Joey Wendle, Josh Donaldson, Jurickson Profar, Justin Verlander, Khris Davis, Kyle Seager, Logan Forsythe, M's, Manny Machado, Marco Estrada, Mariners, Matt Chapman, Matt Davidson, Matt Duffy, Matt Olson, Mitch Haniger, MLB, MLB 2019 Power Rankings, MLB 2019 Preseason Power Rankings, MLB Power Rankings, MLB Preseason Power Rankings, Nelson Cruz, Nomar Mazara, Padres, Power Rankings, Rangers, Ranking The Teams, Ranking The Teams #24-19, Rays, Robinson Cano, San Diego, San Diego Padres, Sean Manaea, Seattle, Seattle Mariners, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas, Texas Rangers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Troy Tulowitzki, Tyler Glasnow, Vlad Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Willy Adames, Yandy Diaz

Welcome to Article #2 of my 2019 MLB preseason power rankings. In this article, though I am covering teams that are unlikely to contend, all of these teams have something to look forward to, and I will be discussing that. Click the links below for other articles in the series (I will add them as I post them):

2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings Series:

Ranking The Teams #30-25, My Version: The Bottom of the Barrel

Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

Ranking The Teams #18-13, My Version: Who else Misses out on Playoff Contention?

Ranking The Teams #12-7, My Version: Who has Playoff Chances?

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

I also released my 3rd annual preseason Baseball Bits!

Let’s jump right back into the rankings:

24. Seattle Mariners

The Case for the Mariners

There were rumors that the Mariners would finally rebuild this off-season after Jerry Dipoto’s roster retooling has failed the Mariners time and time again. But Dipoto was back at it this winter. He did make the roster a bit younger, but there were no blatant signs of a full rebuild. The Mariners did, however, trade away Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, two of the team’s best players. He also let Nelson Cruz walk. That will lead to some regression this season. Most teams regress after losing their best player or two. Look at what happened to the Tigers without Justin Verlander. Adding Edwin Encarnacion gives them a new centerpiece for now, but how long will he remain elite, and how long will Dipoto keep him around for?

Something to Look Forward to

The Mariners haven’t really found an identity yet this season. But by the end of the year, I think they will be known as a power-hitting team. Encarnacion and Jay Bruce add power to a lineup that already has Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon, and other big hitters. Maybe Kyle Seager will even bounce back this year. Dipoto seems to have confidence in Seager. The rotation may struggle, but this lineup could be a nightmare at times for opposing pitchers.

Projected Finish: 71-91, 5th in AL West

23. San Diego Padres

The Case for the Padres

The Padres are taking small steps back towards contention after a rebuild before 2017. They signed 1B Eric Hosmer before 2018 to enhance their lineup, and they enhanced it further by signing 26-year old free agent 3B Manny Machado, one of the top two free agents on the market. They also added 2B Ian Kinsler for the year as well and are targeting top remaining SPs like Dallas Keuchel. They should continue to gradually add pieces to the puzzle as their incoming prospects develop and make their way up. Top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. will likely make his way up this year. Though the Padres won’t contend in 2019, the future is bright in San Diego, and maybe Tatis’ first full season in 2020 will spark something alongside a few more veterans.

Something to Look Forward to

I think the #1 thing to look forward to here is what’s ahead in San Diego. Padres fans might be disappointed in the team right now, but that will all change in the years to come. After attempting to rush to contention in 2016, the Padres have tried to take things slow this time around. It has made for a painful few years in San Diego, but the Padres are more likely to succeed now that they have a mix of veteran talent (Machado, Hosmer, Myers) and intriguing prospects like Tatis. The rotation is still a major issue though. That will have to be fixed before the Padres even think about contention.

Projected Finish: 71-91, 4th in NL West

22. Texas Rangers

The Case for the Rangers

The Rangers may not be what they used to be, especially with 3B Adrian Beltre retiring. But they won’t be as bad as people think. People don’t give enough credit to the non-roster invites Texas handed out this off-season. A lot of the players they added deserved major league deals, but waited too long and missed out. This group includes OF Hunter Pence, two-way player Matt Davidson, 2B Logan Forsythe, and UT Danny Santana. They also added Asdrubal Cabrera on an MLB deal. These veterans could add to the lineup’s core of Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus, and Nomar Mazara. The rotation has some nice veteran pieces as well, but there is no true ace – most of the starters are about equally talented. The bullpen could also be better, but this team should still avoid last place in the AL West.

Something to Look Forward to

The Rangers may not be ready for contention yet, and the future is uncertain. But their lineup could be pretty powerful considering the veterans they added this off-season like Pence and Cabrera. Andrus, Gallo, and Mazara already made for a pretty powerful trio.

Projected Finish: 73-89, 4th in AL West

21. Tampa Bay Rays

The Case for the Rays

The Rays were on the verge of contention in 2018 despite making numerous subtractions in the 2017-18 off-season and at the 2018 Trade Deadline. They lost more of their players in 2018 free agency, and they didn’t bring in replacements. I think that their money-saving tactics will get to them in 2019. It will be hard to maintain a viable rotation even with the opener. This is especially true when you consider the fact that #3 starter Tyler Glasnow has minimal experience as a starting pitcher. The lineup lacks a true centerpiece as it has since Evan Longoria left. Playoff contention is not sustainable for the second year in a row as the Rays continue to subtract. What they are doing is starting a rebuild. The 2018 team was never supposed to contend, and I expect the same here.

Something to Look Forward to

Though I see the team taking a step back after dumping away some of their veterans, young talent has already began to populate the roster, and it could mean good things for the future of this team. Yandy Diaz is an underrated player, and Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle, Glasnow, Brent Honeywell, Christian Arroyo, and others will also make a significant impact in the long run if they don’t in 2019.

Projected Finish: 75-87, 4th in AL East

20. Toronto Blue Jays

The Case for the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are beginning a rebuild after trading away Josh Donaldson and Curtis Granderson and releasing Troy Tulowitzki. Yet they are in the same spot as last year. This is because their next wave of prospects, headlined by future All-Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is on their way up. I believe that if these prospects live up to expectations, the team will not regress so much from last year. If things work out, the Jays might be a couple starting pitchers away from contention by 2020. But for now, the Blue Jays will sit around .500 as they struggle to keep up with their AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

Something to Look Forward to

The Jays could contend very soon, as they were able to get rid of declining players without suffering from the holes they left. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and others give me confidence in the future of the team. This year, they’ll look to replace the players the Blue Jays moved on from.

Projected Finish: 79-83, 3rd in AL East

19. Oakland Athletics

The Case for the Athletics

The A’s are coming off a surprise playoff appearance. But though they did add SP Marco Estrada and INF Jurickson Profar to replace 2B Jed Lowrie (left in free agency) and Sean Manaea (injured), expect regression in 2019. Their miraculous playoff run will not be repeated. The rotation lacks the same depth is had in 2018 with Jharel Cotton and Manaea injured. The bullpen could make up for that, especially if the A’s use the opener again, but a playoff contender needs a good rotation and multiple power hitters in the lineup. You could argue the A’s already have the latter in Matt Chapman and Khris Davis, but the rotation is definitely a problem, and the A’s could have used another power hitter.

Something to Look Forward to

If Chapman, Matt Olson, and Davis produce like they did last year, this lineup could lead the Athletics to exceed expectations. This lineup also gives me confidence that though the Athletics don’t have much money, they are capable of crafting contending teams that are mostly homegrown.

Projected Finish: 80-82, 3rd in AL West

That’s all for this 2nd article in my MLB 2019 preseason power rankings. Stay tuned for more MLB and Red Sox coverage soon. In my next power ranking article, I’ll be looking at the teams in the middle of the pack, #18-13.

Top 5 Remaining MLB Free Agents and Where They’ll Sign

February 24, 2019February 24, 2019 Andrew Roberts MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency 'Stros, Aaron Sanchez, Adam Jones, Astros, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Bradley Zimmer, Braves, Brew Crew, Brewers, Bryce Harper, Cactus League, Clayton Richard, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Free Agency, Friars, Giants, Gio Gonzalez, Grapefruit League, Greg Allen, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, Jenrry Mejia, Jordan Luplow, Leonys Martin, Marcus Stroman, Matt Barnes, Matt Shoemaker, Milwaukee, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, MLB Free Agency, MLB Free Agency 2018-19, Nationals, Nats, O's, Orioles, Padres, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Red Sox, Ryan Borucki, San Diego, San Diego Padres, San Fran, San Francisco, San Francisco Giants, Scott Boras, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Tyler Naquin, Tyler Thornburg, Washington, Washington Nationals

Though Manny Machado has just signed a 10 year, $300 million contract with the Padres, Bryce Harper and many other top MLB free agents are still on the market with Cactus League and Grapefruit League action starting up. With Harper rumors really starting to heat up, I will be listing my Top 5 of the remaining MLB free agents and predicting their contracts. Feel free to comment with your thoughts. I’ll start with the obvious #1:

1. Bryce Harper, OF

2018 Team: Washington Nationals

If you’ve been following any kind of MLB off-season news, you’ve probably heard plenty about Harper, so I’ll keep this brief. The Nationals could still be in it to re-sign the 26-year old Harper after a strong start to his career in Washington. But the Phillies appear to be the current front runners. The latest rumors suggest that the Phillies are in Vegas with Harper and may have a deal done by Monday. But earlier this week, we heard the same thing about Friday, and it didn’t end up happening. Will Harper end up in Philly, or will a mystery team swoop in before the Phillies finalize things?

My Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 10 years, $330 million

I’ve heard things suggesting that the Giants aren’t up to offer a $300 million contract to Harper. But now that they are reportedly willing to offer a long-term deal, they could change their mind considering the mutual interest between Harper and San Fran. If the Giants came close to Philly’s offer, maybe Harper would sign there out of impatience. Plus, the Phillies are division rivals of the Nats, and the west coast is closer to Harper’s hometown.

2. Craig Kimbrel, CL

2018 Team: Boston Red Sox

Kimbrel’s agent made it clear that although Kimbrel has been stubborn about his contract, he will pitch in 2019. But with the late inning relief market already settling down, where does Kimbrel fit? Sure, he could re-sign with Atlanta. But you cannot discount Arodys Vizcaino as a closing option for the Braves.

My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 4 years, $64 million

Kimbrel will eventually have to settle for a smaller contract, and if there’s any team who could still use relief help, it’s Boston. The Red Sox have been adamant about finding a closer internally. Who knows, Jenrry Mejia or Tyler Thornburg could bounce back. Matt Barnes could step it up. But I think the Red Sox will end up bringing back Kimbrel as a safety net once his price goes down. Barnes, Mejia, Thornburg, and others can set up Kimbrel.

3. Dallas Keuchel, SP

2018 Team: Houston Astros

Keuchel, like Harper, is a Scott Boras client, and Boras clients have tended to sign late into the off-season, so it’s not a huge surprise that Keuchel is still on the market. But unlike the relief market, there is still a handful of teams that could use starting pitching help. The Phillies, Braves, and Padres have been linked to Keuchel, but the Padres just signed Machado, and the Phillies aren’t going to turn attention to Keuchel unless they lose out on Harper. The Braves would be smarter to sign a lower-tier starter considering their surplus of SP prospects on the verge of a major league career. I see the Padres finding a cheaper option and a surprise team signing Kimbrel.

My Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays, 4 years, $68 million

The Blue Jays may have a decent rotation going with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard, and Ryan Borucki. But they lack a true ace, and could use depth in case Borucki turns out to be a bust or Shoemaker and Richard are inconsistent or get hurt. Keuchel could help Toronto kill two birds with one stone. Why sign a top line starter with so many prospects about to crack the majors? Well, Toronto’s rebuild is a unique situation. With this legendary group of prospects, Toronto’s a pitcher or two away from contending during a rebuild.

4. Adam Jones, OF

2018 Team: Baltimore Orioles

When people think about all the quality players still on the FA market, they think Harper, Kimbrel, and Keuchel. But what about Adam Jones, who slashed .281/.313/.419 with 15 dingers despite a down year? Back in 2017, he put up a .787 OPS with 26 home runs. Though he is getting up there in age, I think he still has potential to succeed for the next few years to come. But where? He will likely end up with a team that needs OF help but cannot afford Harper. Maybe a small market team that hasn’t spent much this off-season could be a fit.

My Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 3 years, $48 million

The Indians spent a lot in 2016 and 2017, but after cheaping up by trading away Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, they may have room for the outfield centerpiece they need. Jones would allow Bradley Zimmer, Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen, and Jordan Luplow to split time among the remaining two outfield spots. I don’t see any of them as full time starters, so this is a good depth signing. Maybe trading away one of their lower-end outfielders after could be a smart move. That way, the Indians will have less crowding and more talent.

5. Gio Gonzalez, SP

2018 Teams: Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers

Gonzalez is a cheaper SP option that teams who cannot afford Keuchel may go after. Gonzalez had a strong year in 2018, making the case for a decent sized contract. But he hasn’t received much interest from teams besides the Brewers, who traded for him at the deadline. Who will end up signing him?

My Prediction: San Diego Padres, 3 years, $39 million

The Padres aren’t going to want to invest in Keuchel after signing Machado. So I think it’s more likely that they save a few bucks and add Gonzalez. You could make an argument that the entire Padres rotation is wide open. There is no pitcher on their current roster that I see as a surefire starter. But Gonzalez will provide the Padres with the rotation stability they need, with the help of another low-tier free agent starter or two.

That’s all for today. Stay tuned for MLB predictions once Harper finally makes his decision.

Baseball Bits #10: Not many 100 Win Teams win World Series

September 12, 2018September 12, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized A's, American League, Astros, Athletics, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball Bits, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Colorado Rockies, Cubs, Dodgers, Houston, Houston Astros, Jays, LA, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, National League, Nationals, Nats, New York, New York Yankees, O's, Oakland Athletics, Orioles, Red Sox, Rockies, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington, Washington Nationals, world series, Yankees

As I publish this post, the Sox need only one win to reach 100 for the first time since 1946. Last year, 3 of the 6 division winners were 100-win teams. But what does this mean for the Red Sox hopes for the post season success?

The American League is a league of extremes. 3 teams in the AL are on pace to win 100 games this year and 1 more is on pace to be very close. But there are a lot of teams in the American League who are on pace for close to 100 losses. The Orioles have already lost 103 games and most teams have 15-20 games left! The 3 worst teams by record are in the American League, and 6 AL teams have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The National League has only 3 teams that have been eliminated so far.

The American League playoff picture is practically locked up, while no National League team has even come close to clinching a playoff berth. It’s likely going to come down to the final week in the NL and tiebreakers may be a factor.

Even though the top AL teams will likely finish with a better record, does this mean they are better teams? I don’t think so. Due to the tough competition, talented National League teams have been challenged to reach win totals of some of the top AL teams. For example, the Washington Nationals aren’t even a .500 team. That being said, I think a National League team could win the World Series this year, giving a wake-up call to the AL because regular season wins won’t mean anything once the playoffs start.

I’ve done some research on every 100-win team in the 162-game era. I wrote down the team, the year they did it, their final record, and how they did in the playoffs. Based on 100-win teams of the past, what are the odds the Red Sox or one of the other 100-win teams to win the World Series? Will these teams choke early in the playoffs? (Note: Considering that there could be 3-4 from the American League, it is unlikely that all of them do). Check out my research below and keep reading to find out what the research says and how I interpreted it.

The Research

Baseball Bits #10_ 100-Win Teams – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

There have been 57 100-win teams in the 162-game era
Only 15 of the 57 (26.3 %) went on to win the World Series, even though 30 of the 57 (52.6%) made it to the World Series.
Since the LDS began, there have only been 26 100-win teams. 12 of them (46.15%) lost in the LDS
13 of the 57 100-win teams (22.8%) lost in the LCS
2 of the 57 (3.5%) 100-win teams missed the playoffs entirely. These two teams both played in the era before any playoffs beyond the World Series
The Red Sox reached 100 wins three times before the 162-game era: they won the World Series in two of those years
However, the Red Sox have yet to have a 100-win season in the 162-game era
The Yankees have had 8 100-win seasons in the 162-game era, winning the World Series in 3 of them
The best team in 162-game MLB history (the 2001 Mariners) went 116-46 and went on to lose in the ALCS
The 2018 Red Sox are on pace to win 111 games, which would make them the third best team in the 162-game era by record behind the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees (who lost in the ALDS)
Each of the last two World Series winners were 100-win teams
There have been 15 seasons in the 162-game era with multiple 100-win teams
5 of these seasons had three 100-win teams – in only 2 of those years did one of the 3 100-win teams win the World Series
The Red Sox, Yankees (on pace for 101), and Astros (on pace for 102) are all on pace for 100 wins this year, and Athletics (98) are close
The best team in the 162-game era to win a World Series went 114-48 (The 1998 Yankees)
The best team in the 162-game era to miss out on the LCS went 103-59 (The 2002 Athletics)

The Verdict

The fact that an 100-win team won the World Series in each of the last 2 years is very promising. There were three 100-win teams last year and three on pace to do it this year, so I think one of them will pull off a World Series victory. But will it be the Red Sox? The Astros just outplayed the Red Sox in their most recent series and won the series 2-1, and the Yankees always give Boston a hard time in the playoffs. You also have to consider how easy the competition is in the American League compared to the National League. Who knows, there might have been no 100-win teams this year if the MLB’s leagues were more balanced.

However, I don’t think the Red Sox will choke in the ALDS, even though 12 of the 26 100-game winners in the ALDS era did. They are on pace for 110 wins. The winning-est team that missed the LCS was the 2002 Oakland Athletics, who were 103-59. But I do think there’s a good chance the Yankees come close to topping the Red Sox in the ALDS, and there’s an even better chance the Astros beat them in the ALCS to advance to the World Series. In the end, I think the World Series goes to one of these teams: the Astros, the Red Sox, the Cubs (best NL team), the Dodgers (always a contender), or the Rockies (a young team with a stacked lineup and drastically improving pitching).

I’ll be going to the game tonight against Toronto. Will David Price lead us to our 100th victory? We’ll all find out tonight.

UPDATE: I just witnessed Red Sox history! The Red Sox have reached 100 wins. Hopefully they become the 16th 100-win team in the 162-game era to win the World Series.

Red Sox Report: Sox Slowing Down, But It’s Understandable

May 6, 2018May 6, 2018 Andrew Roberts Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Uncategorized 'Stros, A's, Aaron Hicks, Anaheim, Angels, Astros, Athletics, Austin Maddox, Baseball Bits, Blue Jays, Bobby Poyner, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brock Holt, C.C. Sabathia, Chris Sale, Christian Vazquez, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Rodriguez, fenway Park, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Hanley Ramirez, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jays, Joe Kelly, Johnny Mize, Jordan Montgomery, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, KC Royals, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Manny Machado, Marathon Monday, Marco Hernandez, Minnesota, Minnesota Twins, MLB, Mookie Betts, New York, New York Yankees, Oakland, Oakland Athletics, Paw Sox, Pawtucket, Pawtucket Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Royals, Sammy Sosa, Sandy Leon, Sean Manaea, Sox, Steven Wright, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Ted Williams, Texas, Texas Rangers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Twins, Tyler Thornburg, world series, Xander Bogaerts, Yankee Stadium, Yankees, Yanks

When the Red Sox began the season 17-2, I knew they would not be able to finish the season going at that pace. So it is understandable that the Red Sox have gone 8-7 in their last 15 games. It does not mean the Red Sox are a fluke. They have still shown signs in the last 14 games that they are capable contenders. But they cannot win every game, and 8 to 10-game winning streaks interrupted by just a loss or two is not realistic for any team to maintain.

But Mookie Betts is still on fire, and Hanley Ramirez has still put up much better numbers to start 2018. J.D. Martinez has also begun to heat up. Betts has gotten to the point in his hot streak where he’s breaking HR records. We will look at Betts’ records, the cooling off of the Red Sox, and much more in this edition of the Red Sox Report.

Red Sox Beginning to Cool Off, But It’s Not a Major Concern

As I said above, although the Sox have cooled off, the Red Sox have still shown qualities of an elite playoff contender. I still think they have the potential to make a deep run this year. What concerns me a little bit is who they have been losing to. They lost a series to the Rays to start their most recent homestand. Tampa barely has a starting rotation. But even a blind squirrel eventually finds an acorn. They also struggled and got no-hit against the Athletics. The A’s are not terrible, they have a powerful young lineup and an improving rotation. But after a 17-2 start, I did not expect A’s SP Sean Manaea to no-hit the Red Sox. It shows that our lineup is very streaky, feast or famine.

Struggles against the mediocre teams is a problem, but the Red Sox have been pretty good against tough opponents like the Angels and Blue Jays. What the Red Sox need right now is to be competitive against playoff contenders. If they continue to prove that they are capable of that, I will be much more confident in their World Series chances. But if they cannot show up against subpar teams, how will they be able to continue to thrive against contenders?

Sox Lineup Has Been Streaky But Has High Ceiling

The Red Sox lineup has really struggled at times. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their 9 losses so far. But when the lineup is on a good streak, it can carry the team. At its best, this lineup could probably carry the Red Sox all the way to the World Series. But several guys have failed to come through in recent weeks. Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all batting under .200, and Eduardo Nunez hasn’t looked like the same guy that boosted the Red Sox lineup on the brink of contention. Everyone in this lineup has struggled at some point this season.

But when on a hot streak, this lineup can take the league by storm. There were several hot hitters that led us to our amazing start, and a few of our hitters are still on fire. J.D. Martinez is 21 for his last 47 (.447) and has hit 3 dingers in that span. Mookie Betts has been on fire all season. Read more about Betts’ hot streak in the next section.

Mookie Betts Still On Fire, Now He’s Making History

Betts is batting .352 (5th in the league) with 13 home runs (leading the league) and a 1.257 OPS (leading the league) on the season. In addition, he’s 12 for his last 23 (.522). He has hit 11 of the homers in his last 15 games and has had two 3 HR games this season (one soon after Marathon Monday in Anaheim, and another at Fenway this week against the Royals). It’s only the start of May, and he had these 3 HR games within two weeks of each other. He also had a pair of 3 HR games back in 2016. He and Johnny Mize are the only players to ever have a pair of 3 HR games two times in their career.

Betts also passed Ted Williams for the most 3-HR games in team history. Betts is only 25. He has plenty of time in his career for more multi-HR games. Could he become the first person to have two 3-HR games in three different seasons? Could he eventually break the MLB 3 HR game record? It is currently held by Mize and Sammy Sosa (6). Betts is in the Top 10 with 4. Betts is tied for 2nd with Manny Machado for multi-HR games since 2016 (11). Betts and Machado are behind just Giancarlo Stanton (14). Betts is more than just our leadoff hitter. He is one of baseball’s biggest stars. But there is an argument for why he should remain our leadoff hitter, and I look at that in my next Baseball Bits.

Injury Report: Thornburg Begins Rehab, Several Activated Over Last Two Weeks

The Red Sox have continued to be hit by the injury bug. Brock Holt went on the DL in late April with a hamstring strain. Mookie Betts was also hurt for a few days in late April with hamstring issues but has since returned and continued to dominate. He also left today’s game with a wrist injury. But several of our previously injured players have returned over the last couple of weeks. Xander Bogaerts was activated last weekend, and he lost his hot streak on the DL, but he went 3-4 in his first game back and has continued to hit well, batting .303 since his return. Bobby Poyner has also returned from his injury but did not return to the big league roster until May 4th after a stint with the Paw Sox.

Steven Wright has returned from the DL too, but he is currently serving a 15-game domestic violence suspension. Joe Kelly recently returned from his 6-game suspension after the Sox-Yankees brawl in April. Eduardo Rodriguez was also out for a few days on a family medical leave but was activated on the 5th to start against the Rangers. He did not miss a start during his absence. Tyler Thornburg, Austin Maddox, Marco Hernandez, Brock Holt, and Dustin Pedroia are the players that remain on the DL. Thornburg has begun his rehab assignment, and Pedroia has been rehabbing at extended spring training. Pedey is targeting a May 25 big league return. Brock Holt is expected to return next week.

Sox Have Caught a Break vs. Royals, Rangers, But Round 2 With Flaming Hot Yankees Ahead

After a tough road trip, the Red Sox have enjoyed a relatively easy schedule over the last week and a half. They have played the Rays, Royals, and Rangers. Despite having a tough time against the Rays (who have won 11 of their last 14 on a hot streak), the Red Sox have caught a break against the Royals and Rangers, who they won 5 of 7 against. But after that, the Red Sox could have another difficult stretch ahead, starting with a 3 game series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 15, and this was against playoff contenders.

The Yanks have swept the Twins, Indians, and Angels, and took 3 of 4 in Houston. If the Yankees continue to thrive against Boston, they will be proven as serious contenders. But Boston had an impressive 17-2 stretch of their own. Although it may not have been against as difficult opponents, the Sox did take 2 out of 3 when they hosted the Yankees. However, the Yankees were without C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Hicks in that series. They have also called up Gleyber Torres, who has done very well since that series. They have lost Jordan Montgomery and a couple relievers to the DL since the series though.

That’s all for this edition of the Red Sox Report. Stay tuned for more Red Sox posts coming soon.

Ranking The Teams 24-19: My Version: Teams That Will Struggles

March 25, 2018March 25, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Jays, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, MLB, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Power Rankings, Rangers, Ranking The Teams, Rays, Royals, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas, Texas Rangers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays

Welcome to Part 2 of my MLB pre-season power rankings. Last time, I covered the bottom 6 teams. I talked about what they did in the off-season, what the case for them this season is, and what their bright spot is. I also discussed best and worst case scenarios for each team and projected their records and division placements. Today I will do the same for the next 6. Some of these teams at least have a chance to contend, but things do not look great for them. Read below to find out who these six teams are and where they’re headed.

Boston Sports Mania MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

Friday, March 23: Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: Who’s In The Basement?

Saturday, March 24: Ranking The Teams 24-19, My Version: Teams That Will Struggle

Sunday, March 25: Ranking The Teams 18-13, My Version: The Middle of the Pack

Monday, March 26: Ranking The Teams 12-7, My Version: Who Will Contend in 2018?

Tuesday, March 27: Ranking The Teams 6-1, My Version: How The Best of the Best Line Up*

*I will also have my latest Baseball Bits coming sometime next week.

24. Tampa Bay Rays

Off-Season Review

The Rays are headed in a rebuilding direction. I would be shocked to see them contend anytime in the next three years. This off-season, they began their rebuild, trading away SP Jake Odorizzi, star 3B Evan Longoria, DH Corey Dickerson, and OF Steven Souza Jr. They did acquire Denard Span in the Longoria trade to add outfield depth, which will be needed without Dickerson and Souza. They also added veteran slugger and RF Carlos Gomez. They brought in C.J. Cron to replace Corey Dickerson, the one dumb move they made during the off-season.

They could’ve just kept Dickerson or let a prospect take over at DH, but they had to bring in a new DH who was worse than Dickerson. It shouldn’t even be considered rebuilding; Cron is practically the same age as Dickerson. These moves will give key roles to younger players though. 3B Matt Duffy, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, OF Mallex Smith, and SP Jacob Faria are all in line to have a significant role this season.

The Case for the Rays

The Rays have some nice pieces that could’ve led them to contend if they had held on to Odorizzi, Dickerson, and Longoria, but now they’ve made it clear that they’re ready to rebuild. This year, the Rays will need to find younger guys to lead the rotation with Odorizzi gone. They will start with a 4 man rotation but should hope to add a prospect in the #5 slot eventually. Brent Honeywell is out of the picture; he is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. They will also need to find new leaders in the lineup with Evan Longoria gone.

The Strong Point

Tampa Bay made some interesting moves last season that we now know were preparing them for a rebuild, and some of the guys they acquired have major league experience but are still young, and they could serve as mentors for even younger players this season. SS Adeiny Hechavarria, OF Mallex Smith, and 3B Matt Duffy are among these guys. They will help lead a relatively strong Rays lineup. OF Carlos Gomez will also be a leader in this lineup. The rotation still needs plenty of work during this rebuild, but the lineup is in a pretty good position, despite a need for a first baseman/DH alongside C.J. Cron that they failed to fulfill.

Best Case Scenario: The Rays find a pitcher to round out the rotation, and he helps another young Rays rotation dominate the league. The Rays also do well at the plate, leading them just above .500.

Worst Case Scenario: The Rays cannot find a fifth man for their rotation, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Faria struggle from the start, and a Rays 4 man rotation lacking depth falls apart by July. Meanwhile, they cannot get anything better than decent out of the lineup, as guys like Hechavarria, Smith, and Duffy do not break out, and the Rays finish last in the American League.

Projected Finish: 70-92, 5th in AL East

23. Baltimore Orioles

Off-Season Review

I was not so high on Baltimore in the making of my MLB predictions. But they have since finished off their rotation by signing Alex Cobb, who could serve as their ace. Cobb was the last big name starter left on the market. They also resigned Chris Tillman and signed Andrew Cashner in order to at least pursue a respectable rotation after losing many starters to free agency. They were also in talks with teams about Manny Machado, who’s in a contract year, but decided to hold onto him for now. Their roster is looking better than it did before the late off-season moves they are known for. But it’s still nothing more than mediocre.

The Case for the Orioles

The Orioles have to decide what direction they are going in. They have a nice roster but need a little more to contend. That will be decided this season. They will either sell at the deadline after early season disappointment, or they will add a couple key pieces after a decent start and head in an upward direction. The O’s have a good lineup, and their new look rotation could surprise us, but it’s nothing extra special, and the team is getting old. Adam Jones and Chris Davis are past their prime, Manny Machado is in a contract year, and the Orioles lack the young talent to take over. Could it be time to rebuild?

The Strong Point

The Orioles have relied on their lineup over the years, but this year, I think their pitching is their strong point. Their bullpen could still be great if they can get healthy, and the rotation looks much better with Cobb, Cashner, and Tillman on board. Dylan Bundy will also be a factor. Their lineup is getting older and declining, but despite questioning what direction they should be going in, the Orioles have really made some nice upgrades to their pitching staff. But will they pay off?

Best Case Scenario: The O’s new look rotation takes the league by storm, Chris Davis bounces back to lead Baltimore’s lineup, and the Orioles head in an upward direction and contend for a wild-card slot.

Worst Case Scenario: The bullpen is plagued by injuries, the rotation and lineup are no better than average, and the Orioles are forced to enter rebuild mode.

My Prediction: 73-89, 4th in AL East

22. Philadelphia Phillies

Off-Season Review

The Phillies are another team that has improved since my early March MLB predictions. They signed Jake Arrieta to serve as the ace to a young, but improving rotation. They could have added a veteran outfielder to fill in if their younger guys struggle, but the Phillies need to establish their new core post-rebuild. Relying on veterans is not what they want to be doing too much unless they’re 100% ready to contend and want to add a star player, which is not quite the case yet. They did sign 1B Carlos Santana though, moving Rhys Hoskins to the outfield and trading Tommy Joseph.

The Case for the Phillies

The Phillies are getting ready to contend in coming years after a rebuild. Now that they have filled the roster with young talent, it’s time to find out who will lead them. That all depends on who breaks out this year. Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, and Aaron Nola are potential candidates. I do think it is good that they have started to add veterans though because they will need to surround their young talent with elite, experienced players in order to reach the playoffs in coming years.

The Strong Point

The Phillies have a pretty consistent lineup that does not have any major holes, and that really helps in an MLB that can be very streaky. They have a lot of strong players that full out their lineup, but no breakout stars yet, which is what they need. I personally think that by the end of this season, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, or someone else in the Phillies lineup will emerge as a breakout star and carry the team in coming years.

Best Case Scenario: Many of Philly’s young stars breakout, their rotation improves as Jake Arrieta, Jerad Eickhoff, and Aaron Nola make a great trio while Vince Velasquez also makes major contributions, and the Phillies finish 2nd or 3rd in a relatively weak NL East.

Worst Case Scenario: Arrieta and the Phillies rotation bust, the lineup is nothing more than mediocre, and the Phillies don’t get any better, finishing with just below 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 71-91, 4th in NL East

21. Kansas City Royals

Off-Season Review

The Royals were planning to rebuild after losing much of their core to free agency. But they brought back both 3B Mike Moustakas and SS Alcides Escobar in the end. They also signed CF Jon Jay and 1B Lucas Duda to replace Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain. They still aren’t the same team they were a couple years back though. If they were still attempting to contend, they would’ve added another starting pitcher and they would have held on to DH Brandon Moss.

The Case for the Royals

The Royals were planning to rebuild, but I think their decision to keep their lineup pretty much the same implies that guys like Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert might not be MLB ready yet. The Royals need a couple years before they’ll be able to successfully rebuild. But in the meantime, they’re not making any long-term investments, so you shouldn’t expect more than mediocracy from them.

The Strong Point

The Royals have no plans to be legitimate contenders, but their lineup is underrated. I don’t know why people think their lineup is old and washed up. I could see Alcides Escobar bouncing back for a half decent season. Mike Moustakas is still elite. He may be frustrated back in KC, but if he’s not elite, why were other contending teams making such a big push for him? There were other options. Yunel Escobar and J.J. Hardy are still free agents. At this point, they are unlikely to be signed. Moose was picked over those two, who are decent players. Lucas Duda and Jon Jay can hit too, although it’s been a while since they were in their prime.

Best Case Scenario: Escobar and Alex Gordon bounce back for strong seasons, Moose, Duda and Jay do well in the lineup as well as young 2B Whit Merrifield, and the Royals finish just above .500 after strong hitting and decent pitching.

Worst Case Scenario: The Royals lineup collapses, Moose, Gordon, and Escobar want out, and the Royals are forced to rush prospects to the majors in order to prevent the Royals from falling due to a bad decision/unwillingness for change. The prospects then struggle due to needing more time to develop, and the Royals collapse, finishing last in the division, with below 70 wins.

Note: The Royals are one of those teams that will be very hard to predict this season.

Projected Finish: 73-89, 3rd in AL Central

20. Toronto Blue Jays

Off-Season Review

The Blue Jays had a very interesting off-season. It’s almost like the Jays are rebuilding without overhauling, which is a unique way to do things. Rather than trading Josh Donaldson or even Troy Tulowitzki, and completely emptying out all the vets on their roster, they just made a few good decisions that will help them get younger. They let OF Jose Bautista walk, which was good after his 2017 decline, but they brought in OF Randal Grichuk in a trade. Grichuk is a younger option for them who is also a viable starter, so it works out.

They also brought in Curtis Granderson to platoon with younger outfielders like Dalton Pompey. But they’re still holding on to Tulo and Donaldson for another year to give prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time. They also acquired young infielder Yangervis Solarte from San Diego to assist in that job. They signed a couple good relievers as well, just so they could have a full bullpen.

The Case for the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have managed to hold on to a decent MLB ready roster while still rebuilding, and I think it’s a very good idea that will keep them close to contention throughout their rebuild. But it’s nearly impossible to rebuild and contend at the same time, so the Blue Jays won’t be anything more than decent until they are fully rebuilt. This approach will get them there quickly though. It will be like nobody even noticed their rebuild due to their fast execution. The future is bright.

The Strong Point

The lineup in Toronto is nothing more than decent right now, although they have a nice core between Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak. But the rotation is their real strength. They don’t really have an ace, but many of their pitchers could emerge as an ace and are pretty good despite inconsistency. Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ have all had good stretches. They just need to remain healthy and consistent, which is the difficult part.

Best Case Scenario: The mix of youth and experience in the Jays lineup thrives, the rotation takes the league by storm, and the Blue Jays finish as a close third to the Red Sox and Yankees despite missing the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is plagued by inconsistency and injuries and the lineup’s older players struggle, forcing prospects up early. The Blue Jays find themselves in a pickle with both veterans and prospects struggling and finish right around 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 76-86, 3rd in AL East

19. Texas Rangers

Off-Season Review

The Rangers need to make up their mind. Are they rebuilding, or are they contending? They went out and signed Doug Fister, Bartolo Colon, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Jon Niese, and Tim Lincecum to compete for rotation slots but ended up releasing Colon and Niese after they only made the roster older. The rotation will now look something like this, and I still can’t tell you if this will be accurate:

Cole Hamels LHP
Doug Fister LHP
Martin Perez LHP
Matt Moore LHP
Tim Lincecum RHP

I put Lincecum in there over Minor so they could at least have one RHP in the rotation. Jesse Chavez could also occupy that role. But they also declined to sign an outfielder or a 1B/DH, implying that they might consider a rebuild. They did add 3B Trevor Plouffe and 1B Tommy Joseph though. This is a very confusing team. They don’t even know for sure where guys are starting for them. Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo, and Adrian Beltre could all play third, first or DH. The Rangers have gotten younger, but if they want to rebuild, why did they sign five veteran starters, and why did they hold on to their veterans like Adrian Beltre?

The Case for the Rangers

The Rangers are one of the hardest MLB teams to predict this year. They could dominate or be terrible. They have the tools to contend but also face the risk of holding on to the wrong veterans and collapsing. This season is all about choosing a direction. If they do well early, they’ll get what they need at the deadline and make a run. If not, they’ll likely sell Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and other veterans in a rebuilding effort. They did not make it easy for themselves to choose a direction. They could very well end up stuck in the middle if they decline to choose.

The Strong Point

The Rangers still have a lot of power hitters. Big hitters Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus will lead this lineup alongside younger sluggers like Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo. If Beltre and Andrus stay elite, you can still expect a lot of dingers and big hits in Texas. Rougned Odor and Shin-Soo Choo are also strong hitters who are very familiar in Texas.

Best Case Scenario: The new look rotation actually does surprisingly well, the lineup continues to thrive as usual, and the Rangers finish above .500, placing 2nd or 3rd in the AL West.

Worst Case Scenario: The Rangers decline, as the older players on the team struggle, and the Rangers are forced to rebuild.

Projected Finish: 74-88, 4th in AL West

That’s all for Part 2. Stay tuned for Part 3 coming soon. On a side note, I am proud to announce that we have reached the 4 year anniversary of this blog. I have come a long way, writing 534 posts in 4 years. In that time, I have received almost 20000 views and almost 300 followers. I will be posting more about that later today.

Errors, Lack of Hitting Cause Sox to Lose

April 19, 2017April 20, 2017 Andrew Roberts Game Recaps, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Chris Sale, Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera, Francisco Liriano, Hanley Ramirez, Jays, Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, Mitch Moreland, Pablo Sandoval, Red Sox, Rick Porcello, Sandy Leon, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays

The Red Sox lost their streak and their momentum with a 3-0 loss last night. Rick Porcello actually pitched really well, with 0 earned runs. It was errors that allowed the Blue Jays to score.

Pablo Sandoval had an error again. Even Gold Glove winner Mitch Moreland had an error in addition to going 0-4 after hitting really well during the winning streak. The 2nd inning was when the Jays scored all their runs. The two errors happened back to back at the start of the 2nd inning and all of the sudden it was 2nd and 3rd. After Justin Smoak struck out, Darwin Barney got a base hit that knocked both of them in. 2-0 Jays. Kevin Pillar singled to make it first and second. Then Ezequiel Carrera hit a single down the line for a third run. It was 3-0 Jays, but Porcello didn’t have a single earned run.

It was pretty quiet after that, and pitching was pretty good. But the Red Sox also blew several scoring opportunities. In the 5th, Sandy Leon grounded into a double play with 1st and 2nd. Hanley Ramirez did the same thing in the 6th! Instead of 2 innings in a row where they successfully scored, there were 2 innings in a row of blown opportunities.

Both starting pitchers, Rick Porcello and Francisco Liriano had amazing games. Neither gave up any earned runs, Liriano gave up just 4 hits in 5.1 innings, and Porcello gave up just 6 hits in 7 innings.

I was expecting the defense to back up Porcello but Porcello did fine. The defense was the problem. Hopefully, Porcello’s good pitching will combine with good defense for a win the next time he starts.

The Blue Jays ended up winning, 3-0. Unfortunately, Liriano got the win, and Porcello got the loss despite a great pitcher’s duel that was ruined by errors.

Chris Sale starts in today’s game at 12:30. Will the Red Sox win their 5th out of the last 6 and take this series, or will the Blue Jays surprise them again and win?

Betts, Moreland Lead Sox to Victory in High Scoring Showdown

April 19, 2017April 19, 2017 Andrew Roberts Game Recaps, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized Aaron Loup, Andrew Benintendi, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brian Johnson, Ezequiel Carrera, Fernando Abad, Hanley, Hanley Ramirez, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar, Matt Barnes, Mitch Moreland, Mookie, Mookie Betts, Pablo Sandoval, Panda, Red Sox, Russell Martin, Sox, Steve Pearce, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Troy Tulowitzki, Xander Bogaerts

The Red Sox came through again. They topped the Blue Jays 8-7 in a high scoring showdown.

Brian Johnson really got rattled early. In the first inning, Kevin Pillar led off with a double, followed by an RBI single by Kendrys Morales. 1-0 Jays already. But Toronto wasn’t done. Tulowitzki got a base hit to make it first and second and a Justin Smoak double scored a second run. The Jays were up 2-0 in one inning. Johnson was able to get out of the inning after that. But in the 2nd, after a walk, Pillar doubled again, and after intentionally walking Jose Bautista, Johnson was stuck with the bases loaded. Thankfully, the Red Sox defense helped him get out of the inning without a run. Hopefully, they’ll do the same for Rick Porcello tonight.

The Red Sox struck back in the third though. Bogaerts and Benintendi started he rally with back to back singles. Then Betts made that three singles in a row and a run scored. 2-1 Toronto. After a strikeout, Mitch Moreland hit another RBI single to score two more runs!

The Red Sox had a 3-2 lead, but not for long. Justin Smoak smoked a leadoff solo shot to left to begin the bottom of the 3rd. It was a tie game, 3-3.

The Red Sox took the lead back in the 5th though. Betts got another base hit, and Hanley Ramirez knocked him in with a long double over Jose Bautista’s head. It was 4-3 Sox. But the next at bat, Moreland hit his 10th double of the year to knock in Hanley Ramirez. That was Moreland’s 3rd RBI, and it was 5-3 Red Sox. After that, Stroman was done. Aaron Loup came in, but Sandoval just got another RBI hit to knock in Moreland! 6-3 Sox. The Blue Jays went to their bullpen again, and Dominic Leone finished the inning.

The Blue Jays just struck right back though. Russell Martin crushed a solo homer, and the Jays narrowed the lead to 2 runs. It was 6-4 Jays to end the 5th.

But in the top of the 7th Mookie Betts answered. He nailed a solo shot to left, and made it 7-4 Red Sox. The 3 run lead was back. Betts also had his first homer. The one week I don’t start him in my Home Run Derby pool, he hits a homer! But it’s good for the Sox.

After Brian Johnson was done, the Red Sox bullpen actually did a somewhat good job quieting down the Jays. They got in a couple of jams, but managed to hold the Blue Jays without a run for a few innings. Kevin Pillar actually hit a third double, but Fernando Abad and Matt Barnes (after Abad was done) got them out of the inning. The Blue Jays also had 1st and 2nd in two other innings, but the Sox managed to shut them down.

In the top of the 8th the Sox scored again. Pablo Sandoval started it with another base hit! He was 3 for 4 on the day, with one RBI. The Jays almost got him out on a pickoff but after a review, he was ruled safe. After Marco Hernandez walked, Benintendi drove in the run with a ground rule double. It was 8-4 Red Sox going into the bottom of the 8th.

After a quiet 9th inning for the Sox, Barnes stayed in the game for the bottom of the 9th. But he almost blew the game. After 2 outs, Russell Martin walked, and Steve Pearce hit an RBI single to knock him in. Then Ezequiel Carrera pinch hit, and he nailed a two-run homer to make it 8-7. It was a close game now. The Blue Jays almost came back. But Matt Barnes put them away before any more scoring occurred. This was all with two outs, so all that was needed to end the inning was one line drive. That was it.

The Red Sox just barely saved the game, a game they would’ve lost without an explosive lineup. Brian Johnson actually got his first major league win. The Sox cannot do this every game, but they’ve somehow won 4 in a row since Porcello’s horrid start on Friday.

Porcello starts again tonight. Will the winning streak live on or will the Red Sox and Porcello blow it? Check out my latest Baseball Bits for more on Porcello’s case.

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