MLB 2021 Predictions: American League

April is almost here, and when the month begins, so will the MLB season. Just like in my last 7 years writing this blog, I have put together predictions for the season. We only got 60 MLB games last year, but for this year we’ll have a full 162 game season. I just went on my cousin Michael Philipkosky’s podcast, the Master Plan, to discuss all 30 teams, with one episode for the AL and one episode for the NL. You can check out the AL podcast here, and I have my full AL predictions below.

AL East

New York Yankees (96-66, #2 seed)
Toronto Blue Jays (89-73, #5 seed)
Tampa Bay Rays (84-78)
Boston Red Sox (80-82)
Baltimore Orioles (58-104)

I think the Yankees are in a good position to win this division. They lost some of the pitching depth they had last year, but this lineup is still on another level compared to the other teams in the AL East. Even with some injuries last year, the Yankees were able to dominate the AL East, and I expect the same this year. The question is whether they have the pitching staff to go all the way.

This should be a competitive division behind the Yankees. The Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox should all finish somewhat close in the standings. The Jays are really starting to come together. The young talent in the lineup is improving and they’ll be supplemented by new outfielder George Springer and new middle infielder Marcus Semien. Their rotation is also really starting to look sharp.

Tampa was the AL pennant winner last year, but this was a team that was highlighted by its dominant rotation and the Rays lost two of their top three starting pitchers. As a small market team, they tend to subtract in the offseason as opposed to adding. As they lose a key element of their 2020 team, they will see a significant World Series hangover.

The Red Sox should get Chris Sale back towards the end of the year, and when they do they could force the Rays into 4th place. After bringing back Alex Cora and making some underrated signings, I see the Sox finishing around .500 like they did back in 2019. However, this team is hard to read. They have a low floor (they could be a repeat of last year), and a high ceiling (they could potentially contend for a Wild Card). The signings by GM Chaim Bloom have included multiple utility players. Bloom, a University of Pennsylvania alumnus, explained some of his reasoning behind this in a Q&A at a UPenn event on Wednesday. He stated that in the past, utility players were often limited to utility role because they weren’t good enough to play a position every day. However, in modern baseball, there are utility players who can play every day at a variety of positions, like Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez who he signed. These players likely flew under the radar due to the fact that they’re utility guys.

I can’t really see the Orioles competing with these teams. The Orioles have improved since 2019, but their early 2020 success was a bit of a fluke. I think the young talent is starting to come along but it won’t be enough to make a noticeable difference just yet.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox (101-61, #1 seed)
Minnesota Twins (90-72, #4 seed)
Kansas City Royals (77-85)
Cleveland Indians (75-87)
Detroit Tigers (66-96)

The White Sox are really starting to come together. They have a good ace in Lucas Giolito. The lineup is looking great between young talent like Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Nick Madigral and more experienced players like Jose Abreu and Yasmani Grandal. I think they have what it takes to make a deep playoff run this year. I have them ahead of the Twins, who choked in the playoffs last year. Minnesota has a strong rotation headlined by Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, and Randy Dobnak, but their lack of elite lineup talent compared to other top teams is going to hold them back from more than a Wild Card. The Twins should be able secure 2nd place though, as the rest of this division is unlikely to compete.

The Royals have added talent, including starting pitcher Mike Minor, and they have a decent core led by Hunter Dozier and Whit Merrifield. However, I don’t think they have quite enough firepower to contend. I think they will get third place over the Indians, who dealt away Carlos Carrasco and Francisco Lindor in an effort to lower payroll. Star hitter and third baseman Jose Ramirez is still in Cleveland, but the Indians don’t have any other big name hitters. They also lack rotation depth behind defending Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Aside from Bieber and Ramirez, the Indians lack star power. The Tigers got off to a strong start last year thanks to the emergence of outfielder JaCoby Jones. They should perform better than they did in 2019, but I still don’t think they’ll be anywhere close to playoff contention in a 162 game season.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels (87-75, #3 seed)
Houston Astros (84-78)
Oakland Athletics (76-86)
Texas Rangers (65-97)
Seattle Mariners (63-99)

This division is not nearly as strong as it was last year. The Angels always tend to disappoint with a lack of success surrounding star outfielder Mike Trout, but I think they’ll be able to win this weakened division. That doesn’t necessarily imply playoff success. The Angels did add some pitching help and that should put them in position to win the AL West but taking down the Yankees or White Sox will be a difficult feat. The Astros should come close as well, even though they lost outfielders George Springer and Josh Reddick. This lineup’s success between 2017 and 2019 was likely boosted by sign stealing, and the depth of the rotation is slowly dwindling, so I have the Angels edging out Houston here, but it will be close.

The A’s will probably have the biggest drop off in the division. They have a very talented young rotation, but without shortstop Marcus Semien and designated hitter Khris Davis, this lineup is lacking standout hitters. Corner infielders Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are improving at the plate, but that’s not enough lineup talent for a playoff team. I have them falling to third place, but finishing ahead of the Rangers and Mariners.

The Rangers failed to contend last year with an awkward mix of young talent and older players, so they’ve torn it down and prepared for a rebuild headed into this season. Joey Gallo is still here but I don’t expect him to stay for long. Seattle has some young talent that is starting to develop and could have a very strong outfield soon once Kyle Lewis and top prospect Jarred Kelenic fully develop alongside Mitch Haniger. Even with the outfield and the rotation improving, this isn’t the year for Seattle to contend.

That’s all for these American League predictions. I’ll have my NL predictions out in the next couple days. In the meantime, feel free to comment with your thoughts.

Martinez, new bats lead Sox on Opening Day

July 25, 2020July 25, 2020 Andrew Roberts Game Recaps, MLB, Red Sox Alex Cobb, Alex Verdugo, Andrew Benintendi, Anthony Santander, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, BoSox, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Christian Vazquez, Cody Carooll, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jose Peraza, Kevin Pillar, Martin Perez, Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts, Nathan Eovaldi, O's, Orioles, Rafael Devers, Red Sox, Renato Nunez, Rio Ruiz, Sox, Tommy Milone, Travis Lakins, Xander Bogaerts

The Sox started off their season strong on Friday when they took down the Orioles 13 to 2, in a game where they hit 8 doubles and four of their batters had at least 3 hits.

Nathan Eovaldi looked sharp, pitching 6 full innings. He didn’t allow a run until the 6th when Anthony Santander doubled into the left field corner and Renato Nunez did the same to score Santander. The only other Orioles run was scored in the 7th, when Rio Ruiz hit a solo shot.

While Eovaldi’s pitching was better than we’ve seen in a while, it was the Red Sox lineup that led the way in this easy victory.

The game was scoreless through two innings and included an excellent leaping catch by new Sox OF Kevin Pillar. But the Red Sox knocked out Orioles starter Tommy Milone after scoring 4 runs in the 3rd. It started with an opposite field double by left handed hitter Jackie Bradley Jr. Righty and newcomer Jose Peraza hit another similar looking double into left to score JBJ. J.D. Martinez hit another double that scored Peraza.

Milone walked 3B Rafael Devers, and a wild pitch allowed both Devers and Martinez to advance into scoring position. It was yet another similar double into left, this time by Kevin Pillar, that scored both of them and made it 4-0.

Reliever Cody Carroll came in for Milone to start the 4th, and he walked consecutive batters before a Jose Peraza hit loaded the bases. Carroll’s troubles finding the plate continued when he walked Andrew Benintendi to make it 5-0 Red Sox. Ex-Red Sox reliever Travis Lakins came in to face Martinez with the bases still loaded. Martinez hit an opposite field shot deep into right field, and it nearly left the park for a grand slam. He ended up with a ground rule double to knock in two more runs.

But that wasn’t the end of it for this huge 4th inning. Xander Bogaerts got on base and knocked in an additional run. Kevin Pillar also got his second hit of the day to score another. Christian Vazquez made it 10-0 with his own RBI single. After 6 runs, Lakins finally made it out of the inning by striking out consecutive Red Sox.

The Sox added to their lead in the 6th inning, an inning started by a second ground rule double, this time by Vazquez. JBJ hit another double into the left field corner to score Vazquez, and Peraza got his second double and third hit of the day, scoring JBJ on another shot into the left field corner.

The Red Sox finished the day without a home run, but they made up for it with 8 extra base hits (all doubles), 2 of which were ground rule doubles. Newcomers Pillar and Peraza each had three hit days in addition to DH J.D. Martinez and OF Jackie Bradley Jr. Ironically, the Sox did this with Mitch Moreland, nicknamed Mitchy 2-Bags, sitting on the bench.

It was really exciting to see all these big hits on Opening Day, even though it is against Baltimore and expectations for the rest of the season are low. If the Sox can beat Baltimore 13-2, maybe their big bats will be able to make some noise against top contenders like the Yankees and Braves.

The Sox continue their series against Baltimore with a day game today. Martin Perez will be on the mound for Boston, and Moreland is back in the lineup but Bogaerts will have the day off. In addition, Alex Verdugo, who came here in the Mookie Betts trade, will make his Red Sox debut today. The Sox will hope to have another strong day at the plate with Alex Cobb on the mound for Baltimore. Will Verdugo’s debut be anything like Pillar and Peraza’s?

Predicting the Shortened 2020 MLB Season: AL and NL East

July 15, 2020July 15, 2020 Andrew Roberts MLB AL East, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, BoSox, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Jays, Marlins, Mets, Miami, Miami Marlins, MLB, MLB 2020 Predictions, MLB Predictions, Nationals, Nats, New York, New York Mets, New York Yankees, NL East, NY Mets, NY Yankees, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Rays, Red Sox, Sox, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, The Master Plan, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington, Washington Nationals, Yankees, Yanks

We are a little over a week away from the start of the MLB season, which will make baseball the first of America’s 4 major sports leagues to return after pausing during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, the first of a three episode 2020 MLB prediction podcast series with my cousin, Michael Philipkosky, was released as a part of his podcast, the Master Plan. This episode covered the AL and NL East, as teams will only be playing divisional match-ups and match-ups against teams in the corresponding NL division.

You can listen to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify using the links below:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mlb-al-nl-east-predictions-for-60-game-mlb-season-andrew/id1495662343?i=1000485080123

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2uxmuwVDzNCjPbhgq6I10H

In addition, I have added both of our standings predictions below alongside my brief breakdown of each of these 10 squads. Keep reading to check that out.

Continue reading →

Baseball Bits #12: Can Sox Repeat like Few Teams have?

March 25, 2019March 28, 2019 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Special Occasions 'Stros, 2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings, ALCS, Alex Cora, American League, Astros, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball Bits, Blogaversary, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati, Cincinnati Reds, Craig Kimbrel, Cubs, Detroit, Detroit Tigers, FCSN, Federation for Children with Special Needs, Houston, Houston Astros, J.D. Martinez, Mets, MLB, MLB 2019 Power Rankings, MLB Power Rankings, MLB Preseason Power Rankings, New York, New York Mets, New York Yankees, NLCS, NY, NY Mets, NY Yankees, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Red Sox, Reds, St. Louis, St. Louis Cardinals, Tigers, Visions of Community, world series, Yankees, Yanks

Welcome to my annual preseason Baseball Bits article!

If you were unaware, today marks 5 years since I started my Boston Sports Mania blog! The Red Sox were just about to begin their regular season when I started, and just like this year, they were coming off a World Series victory. On my first day, I posted an article titled “MLB 2014 Preview”, which included my predictions for the 2014 MLB season. I still write these prediction articles every year, including this year.

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I call March 25th my “blog-a-versary”, and this year is a big milestone. All of my opportunities are a result of this blog. Most recently, I delivered a motivational keynote speech about my story so far at the Visions of Community Conference hosted by the Federation for Children with Special Needs at the Boston Seaport World Trade Center (see below):

I started this blog to write about my favorite sports like baseball, which is what today’s post is about.

9de8f0c9-6ee9-4ee2-a397-8d905fbe772d — Top: After the Red Sox’s 100th win Bottom: After the Red Sox’s World Series win

In 2018 the Red Sox became the 16th team in the 162-game era to win over 100 regular season games and then go on to win the World Series. They were led by new manager Alex Cora and a new star in J.D. Martinez. But what most Boston sports fans are wondering about now is how the Red Sox will do in 2019 and whether they will repeat. I did some research on 100+ win World Series winners in the 162-game era and how they did in their next season below.

The Research

Baseball Bits #12_ 100-Win World Series Winners – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

Note: In the context of this article, a team who repeats for 2 years in a row is counted for 1 repeat, 3 years in a row is counted for 2 repeats, 4 years in a row is counted for 3 repeats, etc

Only 23 of 115 (20%) World Series winners have repeated
In the 162-game era, only 16 of 57 (28%) 100-win teams have won the World Series, including the 2018 Red Sox
In the 162-game era, only 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox have repeated, with 4 of the teams repeating after 100-win seasons
Of the 15 100 win World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox:9 teams (60%) made the playoffs4 teams (26.67% of the 15) repeated2 of those teams reached 100 wins when they repeated:1976 Cincinnati Reds
- 1978 New York Yankees
2 of those teams failed to reach 100 wins again when they repeated:1962 New York Yankees
- 1999 New York Yankees (repeated again in 2000
The Red Sox did not win the World Series in an 100 win season in the 162-game era until 2018
Another 2 of the 15 (13.33%) lost the World Series:1968 St. Louis Cardinals
- 1978 Baltimore Orioles
3 of the 15 (20%) lost in the LCS2010 New York Yankees
- 2017 Chicago Cubs
- 2018 Houston Astros
6 of the 15 (40%) missed the playoffs entirely1969 Detroit Tigers
- 1970 New York Mets
- 1977 Cincinnati Reds
- 1979 New York Yankees
- 1985 Detroit Tigers
- 1987 New York Mets
Each of the last 3 100-win World Series winners lost in the LCS the next year

The Verdict

Based on the research, I believe the Red Sox have a 20 to 25% chance to repeat. I believe that there is still a select group of elite teams that could win the World Series this year. World Series repeats are less common during the 162-game era as just 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners repeated. However, 4 of those teams were 100-win teams. World Series winners who did not reach 100 wins in this time frame only repeated 12.1% of the time since 1961. That’s more like a 1 in 8 chance. 100-win World Series winners have repeated 26.67% of the time during the same time frame. I think the significance of being a 100-win team helps improve the Sox chances to repeat.

However, as much as I hate to admit it as a huge Boston fan, I am sticking with my prediction that the Sox will fail to reverse the trend of World Series winners. I think they will lose in the ALCS to either the New York Yankees or Houston Astros. The odds are stacked against the Sox reaching 100 wins as well since only 4 of the 15 100-win World Series winners even reached 100 wins again the next year. I don’t think the Red Sox will reach the century mark but will come close at somewhere between 92 and 96 games. A bullpen with no proven closer to start the season helps support my prediction A World Series repeat is unlikely to happen, though you shouldn’t rule it out yet.

Alex Cora did wonders for this team last year, so maybe he’ll be able to recreate the magic of 2018. If he can, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be 2019 AL Manager of the Year.

That’s all for today’s Baseball Bits. After all I have accomplished in the last 5 years, I look forward to creating even better content over the next 5 years. Stay tuned for more soon, including the next portion of my MLB Preseason Power Rankings.

Ranking The Teams #30-25, My Version: The Bottom of the Barrel

March 23, 2019March 30, 2019 Andrew Roberts MLB 2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings, Adam Jones, Alcides Escobar, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Arizona, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Billy Hamilton, Cam Gallagher, Casey Mize, Cedric Mullins, Chris Davis, Chris Owings, Christin Stewart, D-Backs, Dan Straily, David Peralta, David Schoenfield, Detroit, Detroit Tigers, Diamondbacks, Dylan Bundy, Eric Hosmer, ESPN, Goldy, Gregory Polanco, Hunter Dozier, J.T. Realmuto, Jeimer Candelario, Jordy Mercer, Jorge Lopez, Jose Urena, Josh Harrison, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, KC, KC Royals, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Luke Weaver, Manny Machado, Marlins, Matt Manning, Miami, Miami Marlins, Miggy, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Moustakas, Mitch Keller, MLB, MLB 2019 Power Rankings, MLB Power Rankings, MLB Preseason Power Rankings, Moose, Nate Karns, Nathan Karns, O's, Orioles, Paul Goldschmidt, Ranking The Teams, Robbie Ray, Royals, Salvador Perez, Salvy, Sergio Romo, Taijuan Walker, Terrance Gore, Tigers, Wei-Yin Chen, Yusniel Diaz, Zack Greinke

Welcome to Article #1 of my 6th annual set of MLB preseason power rankings and 5th annual MLB power ranking series. Back in 2015, I got the idea to break up my pre-season Power Rankings into 5 articles from David Schoenfield of ESPN. Even though Schoenfield no longer posts power rankings in this format, I have stuck with it and given the rankings my own flavor in recent years. In this article, though I am covering some of the worst teams in the league, all of these teams have some good pieces, and I will be pointing those out. Click the links below for other articles in the series (I will add them as I post them):

2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings Series:

Ranking The Teams #30-25, My Version: The Bottom of the Barrel

Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

Ranking The Teams #18-13, My Version: Who else Misses out on Playoff Contention?

Ranking The Teams #12-7, My Version: Who has Playoff Chances?

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

I also released my 3rd annual preseason Baseball Bits!

30. Miami Marlins

The Case for the Marlins

The Marlins traded away most of their best players a year ago, and after dealing away C J.T. Realmuto this off-season, things can only get worse from here. The hole Realmuto left behind should outweigh the upside of Miami’s younger players, for now. The Marlins did add a couple veterans to the lineup and signed a new closer in Sergio Romo. Plus, the bulk of the prospects acquired from their recent rebuild should be making their way up as 2020 and 2021 approach, and when that time comes, this team will be on the rise again. But for now, they remain in the NL East basement after a rough 2018.

The Bright Spot

It was not easy coming up with something here. A lot has gone wrong in Miami in the last year and a half. But I think the bright spot of this team is the top of the rotation. Jose Urena, Miami’s longest tenured player, leads the group, with seasoned veterans in Wei-Yin Chen and Dan Straily behind him. Straily has had a lot of success with the Marlins, and when Chen is healthy, he shows flashes of dominance.

Projected Finish: 61-101, 5th in NL East

29. Baltimore Orioles

The Case for the Orioles

Baltimore’s 2018 season was historically bad, as they won just 47 games. But with Dylan Bundy and Alex Cobb (likely out of it early in 2018 after lack of Spring Training time) primed to bounce back, they should improve at least slightly from their nightmare season. Adam Jones’ departure hurts, but Cedric Mullins is ready to replace him, and Yusniel Diaz will be here soon. Maybe Chris Davis can even rise to the occasion with Jones out of the lineup. The bullpen is still a major concern, and the lineup could be better, but I don’t think we’ll see any team perform worse than the 2018 Orioles for a long time.

The Bright Spot

The rotation could be better, but so long as Bundy and Cobb bounce back, the rotation could potentially be a bright spot for this team. Bundy and Cobb could provide Baltimore a 1-2 punch, with Andrew Cashner and Nathan Karns among others serving as depth.

Projected Finish: 66-96, 5th in AL East

28. Detroit Tigers

The Case for the Tigers

Detroit’s rebuild kicked into full swing in 2018 after they dealt away several older players at the 2017 Trade Deadline. Their remaining veterans, even Miguel Cabrera, are declining quickly. This rebuild has dragged on for a while now, leaving the Tigers among the league’s worst teams for a third straight season. Even in a weak division, I can’t see them doing much. Before they contend, Casey Mize and Matt Manning will need to make their way up and Christin Stewart, Jeimer Candelario, and others will need to make their big break through. In the meantime, it could be a long year for the Tigers despite some new additions to their lineup including Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison.

The Bright Spot

The infield could shine with the additions of Mercer and Harrison. If Candelario continues to develop this year, and Cabrera regains a bit of what he has lost during the last couple of years, people may begin to wonder how the Tigers are stuck in the AL Central basement.

Projected Finish: 66-96, 5th in AL Central

27. Kansas City Royals

The Case for the Royals

The Hosmer-Moustakas era in Kansas City is officially over, with Alcides Escobar leaving in free agency, and Mike Moustakas leaving at the 2018 Trade Deadline. The team still has a capable rotation, but the bullpen lacks the depth it has contained in past years. The lineup may lack power this year with Salvador Perez on the IL and Hosmer and Moose gone, but hopefully, Billy Hamilton’s speed will at least partially make up for it. Even with Hamilton and Chris Owings on board, this team is bound to decline a little bit more before the rebuilding is over. The next crop of prospects is not ready yet, and during this transitional period for the Royals, things could get ugly.

The Bright Spot

Speed and youth will make the Royals special this year. A lot of young players are primed to breakout, including INF Hunter Dozier, RHP Jorge Lopez, and C Cam Gallagher. Hamilton and Gore will make for a dynamic outfield and add speed to an otherwise dull starting lineup.

Projected Finish: 67-95, 4th in AL Central

26. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Case for the Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks declined a bit in 2018 despite minimal roster subtractions. You might think they would bounce back considering their young roster, but after trading away star 1B Paul Goldschmidt, this team is not going far. The lineup lacks big hitters beyond underrated outfielder David Peralta and new addition Adam Jones. The pitching staff is thin behind Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray. In a tough division, the Diamondbacks will struggle this year, as Manny Machado leads the Padres to outperform them, the Giants exceed expectations, and the Rockies and Dodgers sit on top.

The Bright Spot

The rotation may have lost some of its depth. But until Greinke or Ray leaves, the rotation will still highlight this team. Taijuan Walker’s return from the IL will only boost this strong rotation further. Luke Weaver is also underrated and could make an impact.

Projected Finish: 68-94, 5th in NL West

25. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Case for the Pirates

The Pirates exceeded expectations with a sub-.500 season in 2018. But the departures of Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer (both fled for Detroit) leave a huge hole in the middle infield, and the rotation is extremely top-heavy. The Pirates would perform better with 5 average starters than their Big 3 and little depth behind them. The outfield is this team’s strong point right now, but Gregory Polanco will be missed during his time on the IL. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes and other top prospects may fix Pittsburgh’s infield problems once they make their way up, and Mitch Keller could make this rotation even scarier. But for now, the Pirates will be stuck on the bottom of a tough division.

The Bright Spot

There are multiple bright spots to consider for this team. But the infield is in such bad shape that it’s hard to rank them much higher than this in such a tough NL Central. The outfield could make things interesting once Polanco returns, as they will own three outfielders who could be considered Top 10 at their positions. The incoming prospects could help accelerate their progress as well.

Projected Finish: 67-95, 5th in NL Central

That’s all for Part 1 of my MLB 2019 preseason power rankings. Stay tuned for my next power rankings article, where I will look at the teams I ranked #24-19 and discuss things to look forward too for those teams.

Top 5 Remaining MLB Free Agents and Where They’ll Sign

February 24, 2019February 24, 2019 Andrew Roberts MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency 'Stros, Aaron Sanchez, Adam Jones, Astros, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Bradley Zimmer, Braves, Brew Crew, Brewers, Bryce Harper, Cactus League, Clayton Richard, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Free Agency, Friars, Giants, Gio Gonzalez, Grapefruit League, Greg Allen, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, Jenrry Mejia, Jordan Luplow, Leonys Martin, Marcus Stroman, Matt Barnes, Matt Shoemaker, Milwaukee, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, MLB Free Agency, MLB Free Agency 2018-19, Nationals, Nats, O's, Orioles, Padres, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Red Sox, Ryan Borucki, San Diego, San Diego Padres, San Fran, San Francisco, San Francisco Giants, Scott Boras, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Tyler Naquin, Tyler Thornburg, Washington, Washington Nationals

Though Manny Machado has just signed a 10 year, $300 million contract with the Padres, Bryce Harper and many other top MLB free agents are still on the market with Cactus League and Grapefruit League action starting up. With Harper rumors really starting to heat up, I will be listing my Top 5 of the remaining MLB free agents and predicting their contracts. Feel free to comment with your thoughts. I’ll start with the obvious #1:

1. Bryce Harper, OF

2018 Team: Washington Nationals

If you’ve been following any kind of MLB off-season news, you’ve probably heard plenty about Harper, so I’ll keep this brief. The Nationals could still be in it to re-sign the 26-year old Harper after a strong start to his career in Washington. But the Phillies appear to be the current front runners. The latest rumors suggest that the Phillies are in Vegas with Harper and may have a deal done by Monday. But earlier this week, we heard the same thing about Friday, and it didn’t end up happening. Will Harper end up in Philly, or will a mystery team swoop in before the Phillies finalize things?

My Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 10 years, $330 million

I’ve heard things suggesting that the Giants aren’t up to offer a $300 million contract to Harper. But now that they are reportedly willing to offer a long-term deal, they could change their mind considering the mutual interest between Harper and San Fran. If the Giants came close to Philly’s offer, maybe Harper would sign there out of impatience. Plus, the Phillies are division rivals of the Nats, and the west coast is closer to Harper’s hometown.

2. Craig Kimbrel, CL

2018 Team: Boston Red Sox

Kimbrel’s agent made it clear that although Kimbrel has been stubborn about his contract, he will pitch in 2019. But with the late inning relief market already settling down, where does Kimbrel fit? Sure, he could re-sign with Atlanta. But you cannot discount Arodys Vizcaino as a closing option for the Braves.

My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 4 years, $64 million

Kimbrel will eventually have to settle for a smaller contract, and if there’s any team who could still use relief help, it’s Boston. The Red Sox have been adamant about finding a closer internally. Who knows, Jenrry Mejia or Tyler Thornburg could bounce back. Matt Barnes could step it up. But I think the Red Sox will end up bringing back Kimbrel as a safety net once his price goes down. Barnes, Mejia, Thornburg, and others can set up Kimbrel.

3. Dallas Keuchel, SP

2018 Team: Houston Astros

Keuchel, like Harper, is a Scott Boras client, and Boras clients have tended to sign late into the off-season, so it’s not a huge surprise that Keuchel is still on the market. But unlike the relief market, there is still a handful of teams that could use starting pitching help. The Phillies, Braves, and Padres have been linked to Keuchel, but the Padres just signed Machado, and the Phillies aren’t going to turn attention to Keuchel unless they lose out on Harper. The Braves would be smarter to sign a lower-tier starter considering their surplus of SP prospects on the verge of a major league career. I see the Padres finding a cheaper option and a surprise team signing Kimbrel.

My Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays, 4 years, $68 million

The Blue Jays may have a decent rotation going with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard, and Ryan Borucki. But they lack a true ace, and could use depth in case Borucki turns out to be a bust or Shoemaker and Richard are inconsistent or get hurt. Keuchel could help Toronto kill two birds with one stone. Why sign a top line starter with so many prospects about to crack the majors? Well, Toronto’s rebuild is a unique situation. With this legendary group of prospects, Toronto’s a pitcher or two away from contending during a rebuild.

4. Adam Jones, OF

2018 Team: Baltimore Orioles

When people think about all the quality players still on the FA market, they think Harper, Kimbrel, and Keuchel. But what about Adam Jones, who slashed .281/.313/.419 with 15 dingers despite a down year? Back in 2017, he put up a .787 OPS with 26 home runs. Though he is getting up there in age, I think he still has potential to succeed for the next few years to come. But where? He will likely end up with a team that needs OF help but cannot afford Harper. Maybe a small market team that hasn’t spent much this off-season could be a fit.

My Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 3 years, $48 million

The Indians spent a lot in 2016 and 2017, but after cheaping up by trading away Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, they may have room for the outfield centerpiece they need. Jones would allow Bradley Zimmer, Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen, and Jordan Luplow to split time among the remaining two outfield spots. I don’t see any of them as full time starters, so this is a good depth signing. Maybe trading away one of their lower-end outfielders after could be a smart move. That way, the Indians will have less crowding and more talent.

5. Gio Gonzalez, SP

2018 Teams: Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers

Gonzalez is a cheaper SP option that teams who cannot afford Keuchel may go after. Gonzalez had a strong year in 2018, making the case for a decent sized contract. But he hasn’t received much interest from teams besides the Brewers, who traded for him at the deadline. Who will end up signing him?

My Prediction: San Diego Padres, 3 years, $39 million

The Padres aren’t going to want to invest in Keuchel after signing Machado. So I think it’s more likely that they save a few bucks and add Gonzalez. You could make an argument that the entire Padres rotation is wide open. There is no pitcher on their current roster that I see as a surefire starter. But Gonzalez will provide the Padres with the rotation stability they need, with the help of another low-tier free agent starter or two.

That’s all for today. Stay tuned for MLB predictions once Harper finally makes his decision.

Baseball Bits #10: Not many 100 Win Teams win World Series

September 12, 2018September 12, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized A's, American League, Astros, Athletics, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball Bits, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Colorado Rockies, Cubs, Dodgers, Houston, Houston Astros, Jays, LA, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, National League, Nationals, Nats, New York, New York Yankees, O's, Oakland Athletics, Orioles, Red Sox, Rockies, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington, Washington Nationals, world series, Yankees

As I publish this post, the Sox need only one win to reach 100 for the first time since 1946. Last year, 3 of the 6 division winners were 100-win teams. But what does this mean for the Red Sox hopes for the post season success?

The American League is a league of extremes. 3 teams in the AL are on pace to win 100 games this year and 1 more is on pace to be very close. But there are a lot of teams in the American League who are on pace for close to 100 losses. The Orioles have already lost 103 games and most teams have 15-20 games left! The 3 worst teams by record are in the American League, and 6 AL teams have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The National League has only 3 teams that have been eliminated so far.

The American League playoff picture is practically locked up, while no National League team has even come close to clinching a playoff berth. It’s likely going to come down to the final week in the NL and tiebreakers may be a factor.

Even though the top AL teams will likely finish with a better record, does this mean they are better teams? I don’t think so. Due to the tough competition, talented National League teams have been challenged to reach win totals of some of the top AL teams. For example, the Washington Nationals aren’t even a .500 team. That being said, I think a National League team could win the World Series this year, giving a wake-up call to the AL because regular season wins won’t mean anything once the playoffs start.

I’ve done some research on every 100-win team in the 162-game era. I wrote down the team, the year they did it, their final record, and how they did in the playoffs. Based on 100-win teams of the past, what are the odds the Red Sox or one of the other 100-win teams to win the World Series? Will these teams choke early in the playoffs? (Note: Considering that there could be 3-4 from the American League, it is unlikely that all of them do). Check out my research below and keep reading to find out what the research says and how I interpreted it.

The Research

Baseball Bits #10_ 100-Win Teams – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

There have been 57 100-win teams in the 162-game era
Only 15 of the 57 (26.3 %) went on to win the World Series, even though 30 of the 57 (52.6%) made it to the World Series.
Since the LDS began, there have only been 26 100-win teams. 12 of them (46.15%) lost in the LDS
13 of the 57 100-win teams (22.8%) lost in the LCS
2 of the 57 (3.5%) 100-win teams missed the playoffs entirely. These two teams both played in the era before any playoffs beyond the World Series
The Red Sox reached 100 wins three times before the 162-game era: they won the World Series in two of those years
However, the Red Sox have yet to have a 100-win season in the 162-game era
The Yankees have had 8 100-win seasons in the 162-game era, winning the World Series in 3 of them
The best team in 162-game MLB history (the 2001 Mariners) went 116-46 and went on to lose in the ALCS
The 2018 Red Sox are on pace to win 111 games, which would make them the third best team in the 162-game era by record behind the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees (who lost in the ALDS)
Each of the last two World Series winners were 100-win teams
There have been 15 seasons in the 162-game era with multiple 100-win teams
5 of these seasons had three 100-win teams – in only 2 of those years did one of the 3 100-win teams win the World Series
The Red Sox, Yankees (on pace for 101), and Astros (on pace for 102) are all on pace for 100 wins this year, and Athletics (98) are close
The best team in the 162-game era to win a World Series went 114-48 (The 1998 Yankees)
The best team in the 162-game era to miss out on the LCS went 103-59 (The 2002 Athletics)

The Verdict

The fact that an 100-win team won the World Series in each of the last 2 years is very promising. There were three 100-win teams last year and three on pace to do it this year, so I think one of them will pull off a World Series victory. But will it be the Red Sox? The Astros just outplayed the Red Sox in their most recent series and won the series 2-1, and the Yankees always give Boston a hard time in the playoffs. You also have to consider how easy the competition is in the American League compared to the National League. Who knows, there might have been no 100-win teams this year if the MLB’s leagues were more balanced.

However, I don’t think the Red Sox will choke in the ALDS, even though 12 of the 26 100-game winners in the ALDS era did. They are on pace for 110 wins. The winning-est team that missed the LCS was the 2002 Oakland Athletics, who were 103-59. But I do think there’s a good chance the Yankees come close to topping the Red Sox in the ALDS, and there’s an even better chance the Astros beat them in the ALCS to advance to the World Series. In the end, I think the World Series goes to one of these teams: the Astros, the Red Sox, the Cubs (best NL team), the Dodgers (always a contender), or the Rockies (a young team with a stacked lineup and drastically improving pitching).

I’ll be going to the game tonight against Toronto. Will David Price lead us to our 100th victory? We’ll all find out tonight.

UPDATE: I just witnessed Red Sox history! The Red Sox have reached 100 wins. Hopefully they become the 16th 100-win team in the 162-game era to win the World Series.

Big Night For Boston: Sox, Bruins Win On Big Stage

April 14, 2018April 15, 2018 Andrew Roberts Bruins, Game Recaps, MLB, NHL, Red Sox, Uncategorized Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Atlantic Division, B's, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Benny, Boston, Boston Bruins, Boston Red Sox, Brock Holt, Bruins, David Backes, E-Rod, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Gary Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr., JBJ, Leafs, Los Angeles Angels, Maple Leafs, Marcus Walden, Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts, Nazem Kadri, New York, New York Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Rick Nash, Rick Porcello, Riley Nash, Sandy Leon, Sonny Gray, Sox, Stanley Cup Playoffs, TD Garden, Tommy Wingels, Toronto, Toronto Maple Leafs, world series, Yankees, Yanks, Zach Hyman

Boston sports fans needed 2 TVs on Thursday night as the Red Sox battled the Yankees in the series rubber match and the Bruins kicked off their 2018 playoff hockey against a tough Toronto squad. Most fans likely flipped back and forth and if they were lucky didn’t miss a run or goal and both teams dominated. The Sox have now won three in a row after more dominance today and the Bruins are on tonight so no flipping is needed.

The Red Sox topped the Yankees 6-3, winning their first series of 2018 against New York. The Sox looked very good throughout the series. Although both teams are suffering numerous injuries, I think this is a good sign that the Red Sox may be ready to contend for a World Series title. Some people believed the opposite before this series, as the Red Sox had faced only rebuilding teams before their series against the Yanks. If they can do well against the 12-3 Los Angeles Angels and start next week’s west coast road trip off right, that will continue to solidify the Red Sox position as a true contender to win the AL East again and maybe go further.

While the Bruins limped into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 5 to miss a chance to lock down the #1 seed, they returned to midseason form Thursday and dominated in Game 1. They blew out Toronto 5-1. The Bruins refused to let injuries hold them back, and the depth of their roster helped them. If the Bruins can bring the same intensity for the rest of the series, the Maple Leafs may struggle to win a game, let alone the series. The top line of Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak played extremely well and their play really shined on the power play as the Bruins were 3 for 6, scoring one PP goal in each period.

Please read on for a few more details on the big night for the Sox and B’s.

Porcello Dominant, Red Sox Cruise to Victory

The Red Sox came out aggressive fearing a rain-shortened game and put up 6 runs over the first 3 innings on their way to victory over the Yankees, 6-3. Rick Porcello was dominant on the mound and had a no-hitter through six and finished with seven scoreless innings, giving up just two hits. Porcello stayed warm waiting out a rain delay after five innings but Rick came back into the game showing no ill effects from the delay. His no-hitter came to an end in the 7th inning when Yankees star hitter Aaron Judge doubled to break it up.

The Red Sox grabbed hold of a lead early in the game. Hanley Ramirez, who has been on fire of late, left the game in the 1st after being hit in the hand by Sonny Gray but that did not stop the Red Sox. Eduardo Nunez led off in the next inning with a base hit. The cold was giving him knee discomfort as he raced down the first base line but he decided to keep on playing. JBJ walked to make it 1st and 2nd, and Sandy Leon drove in the run with a single. Brock Holt got on base with another walk to load the bases, and all three runners advanced one base when Mookie Betts hit a deep sac fly, making it 2-0 Red Sox with men on 2nd and 3rd. Andrew Benintendi then grounded to second base with the infield in. The Yankees chose to throw home but the throw bounced in by Sanchez and allowed Leon to score. Holt advanced to 3rd and Benny had time to advance to 2nd. Mitch Moreland, in off the bench for Hanley, drove in the fourth run with a single despite limited playing time this year.

The Sox scored again the 3rd. Eduardo Nunez doubled to right, and JBJ hit a ground rule double to knock him in. Sandy Leon struck out on a pitch in the dirt that got away. Another bad defensive choice by the Yankees allowed Leon to reach as Gary Sanchez fired to 3rd but JBJ slid in safely. Mookie Betts knocked him in with a ground ball to the right side, 6-0 Boston. Betts ended up going 0 for 4 but he had 2 RBI on the night.

The Yankees did not score until the top of the 9th when reliever Marcus Walden gave up a bases-clearing double to Gary Sanchez with the bases loaded. Craig Kimbrel came in to finish the job, and the Red Sox won 6-3.

Injury Update: Hanley Ramirez did suffer a wrist contusion but avoided a more serious injury. He was out of the lineup Friday against Baltimore but returned today with a Home Run.

What’s Next: The Red Sox have taken the first 2 games against the Orioles in a 4-game Fenway series as Eduardo Rodriguez dominated again against his former team as he has struck out more batters against the Orioles than any other opponent in his career. The Sox won easily 7-3. Velazquez gave up just 2 runs in 5 strong innings as the Sox cruised to a 10-3 victory and weather permitting hope Sale can keep the strong pitching streak for Sox starters going.

Bruins Dominate vs. Leafs, Led By Power Play success

The Bruins dominated in Game 1 of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They topped a strong Toronto Maple Leafs squad, 5-1, with David Backes scoring one goal and being robbed of a second. Rick Nash also made an impact returning after a long absence. The Bruins dominated in their power plays, scoring a power-play goal in every period. One PP goal was during a 5-minute major power play due to a gruesome hit Nazem Kadri put on Tommy Wingels, knocking him out of the game. Kadri is suspended for the next 3 games of the series, and if the Bruins continue to dominate, he may not play another game this season.

Zach Hyman scored the only goal for Toronto when the Leafs tied it up in the 1st period. After that, the Leafs fell out of it due to 4 unanswered Bruins goals.

Injury Update: Wingels is out for Game 2 after being hit by Kadri. Riley Nash is doubtful with an ear laceration. Donato is playing for Wingels.

What’s Next: The Bruins take on the Leafs at the TD Garden again tonight. It is being aired on prime time on NBC. The Bruins have jumped out to a 5-2 lead early in the 2nd period, going 2 for 2 on the power play and scoring another 4 unanswered goals to begin the game.

Stay tuned for more Red Sox and Bruins coverage soon, including my latest Red Sox Report.

Ranking The Teams 24-19: My Version: Teams That Will Struggles

March 25, 2018March 25, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Jays, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, MLB, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Power Rankings, Rangers, Ranking The Teams, Rays, Royals, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas, Texas Rangers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays

Welcome to Part 2 of my MLB pre-season power rankings. Last time, I covered the bottom 6 teams. I talked about what they did in the off-season, what the case for them this season is, and what their bright spot is. I also discussed best and worst case scenarios for each team and projected their records and division placements. Today I will do the same for the next 6. Some of these teams at least have a chance to contend, but things do not look great for them. Read below to find out who these six teams are and where they’re headed.

Boston Sports Mania MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

Friday, March 23: Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: Who’s In The Basement?

Saturday, March 24: Ranking The Teams 24-19, My Version: Teams That Will Struggle

Sunday, March 25: Ranking The Teams 18-13, My Version: The Middle of the Pack

Monday, March 26: Ranking The Teams 12-7, My Version: Who Will Contend in 2018?

Tuesday, March 27: Ranking The Teams 6-1, My Version: How The Best of the Best Line Up*

*I will also have my latest Baseball Bits coming sometime next week.

24. Tampa Bay Rays

Off-Season Review

The Rays are headed in a rebuilding direction. I would be shocked to see them contend anytime in the next three years. This off-season, they began their rebuild, trading away SP Jake Odorizzi, star 3B Evan Longoria, DH Corey Dickerson, and OF Steven Souza Jr. They did acquire Denard Span in the Longoria trade to add outfield depth, which will be needed without Dickerson and Souza. They also added veteran slugger and RF Carlos Gomez. They brought in C.J. Cron to replace Corey Dickerson, the one dumb move they made during the off-season.

They could’ve just kept Dickerson or let a prospect take over at DH, but they had to bring in a new DH who was worse than Dickerson. It shouldn’t even be considered rebuilding; Cron is practically the same age as Dickerson. These moves will give key roles to younger players though. 3B Matt Duffy, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, OF Mallex Smith, and SP Jacob Faria are all in line to have a significant role this season.

The Case for the Rays

The Rays have some nice pieces that could’ve led them to contend if they had held on to Odorizzi, Dickerson, and Longoria, but now they’ve made it clear that they’re ready to rebuild. This year, the Rays will need to find younger guys to lead the rotation with Odorizzi gone. They will start with a 4 man rotation but should hope to add a prospect in the #5 slot eventually. Brent Honeywell is out of the picture; he is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. They will also need to find new leaders in the lineup with Evan Longoria gone.

The Strong Point

Tampa Bay made some interesting moves last season that we now know were preparing them for a rebuild, and some of the guys they acquired have major league experience but are still young, and they could serve as mentors for even younger players this season. SS Adeiny Hechavarria, OF Mallex Smith, and 3B Matt Duffy are among these guys. They will help lead a relatively strong Rays lineup. OF Carlos Gomez will also be a leader in this lineup. The rotation still needs plenty of work during this rebuild, but the lineup is in a pretty good position, despite a need for a first baseman/DH alongside C.J. Cron that they failed to fulfill.

Best Case Scenario: The Rays find a pitcher to round out the rotation, and he helps another young Rays rotation dominate the league. The Rays also do well at the plate, leading them just above .500.

Worst Case Scenario: The Rays cannot find a fifth man for their rotation, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Faria struggle from the start, and a Rays 4 man rotation lacking depth falls apart by July. Meanwhile, they cannot get anything better than decent out of the lineup, as guys like Hechavarria, Smith, and Duffy do not break out, and the Rays finish last in the American League.

Projected Finish: 70-92, 5th in AL East

23. Baltimore Orioles

Off-Season Review

I was not so high on Baltimore in the making of my MLB predictions. But they have since finished off their rotation by signing Alex Cobb, who could serve as their ace. Cobb was the last big name starter left on the market. They also resigned Chris Tillman and signed Andrew Cashner in order to at least pursue a respectable rotation after losing many starters to free agency. They were also in talks with teams about Manny Machado, who’s in a contract year, but decided to hold onto him for now. Their roster is looking better than it did before the late off-season moves they are known for. But it’s still nothing more than mediocre.

The Case for the Orioles

The Orioles have to decide what direction they are going in. They have a nice roster but need a little more to contend. That will be decided this season. They will either sell at the deadline after early season disappointment, or they will add a couple key pieces after a decent start and head in an upward direction. The O’s have a good lineup, and their new look rotation could surprise us, but it’s nothing extra special, and the team is getting old. Adam Jones and Chris Davis are past their prime, Manny Machado is in a contract year, and the Orioles lack the young talent to take over. Could it be time to rebuild?

The Strong Point

The Orioles have relied on their lineup over the years, but this year, I think their pitching is their strong point. Their bullpen could still be great if they can get healthy, and the rotation looks much better with Cobb, Cashner, and Tillman on board. Dylan Bundy will also be a factor. Their lineup is getting older and declining, but despite questioning what direction they should be going in, the Orioles have really made some nice upgrades to their pitching staff. But will they pay off?

Best Case Scenario: The O’s new look rotation takes the league by storm, Chris Davis bounces back to lead Baltimore’s lineup, and the Orioles head in an upward direction and contend for a wild-card slot.

Worst Case Scenario: The bullpen is plagued by injuries, the rotation and lineup are no better than average, and the Orioles are forced to enter rebuild mode.

My Prediction: 73-89, 4th in AL East

22. Philadelphia Phillies

Off-Season Review

The Phillies are another team that has improved since my early March MLB predictions. They signed Jake Arrieta to serve as the ace to a young, but improving rotation. They could have added a veteran outfielder to fill in if their younger guys struggle, but the Phillies need to establish their new core post-rebuild. Relying on veterans is not what they want to be doing too much unless they’re 100% ready to contend and want to add a star player, which is not quite the case yet. They did sign 1B Carlos Santana though, moving Rhys Hoskins to the outfield and trading Tommy Joseph.

The Case for the Phillies

The Phillies are getting ready to contend in coming years after a rebuild. Now that they have filled the roster with young talent, it’s time to find out who will lead them. That all depends on who breaks out this year. Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, and Aaron Nola are potential candidates. I do think it is good that they have started to add veterans though because they will need to surround their young talent with elite, experienced players in order to reach the playoffs in coming years.

The Strong Point

The Phillies have a pretty consistent lineup that does not have any major holes, and that really helps in an MLB that can be very streaky. They have a lot of strong players that full out their lineup, but no breakout stars yet, which is what they need. I personally think that by the end of this season, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, or someone else in the Phillies lineup will emerge as a breakout star and carry the team in coming years.

Best Case Scenario: Many of Philly’s young stars breakout, their rotation improves as Jake Arrieta, Jerad Eickhoff, and Aaron Nola make a great trio while Vince Velasquez also makes major contributions, and the Phillies finish 2nd or 3rd in a relatively weak NL East.

Worst Case Scenario: Arrieta and the Phillies rotation bust, the lineup is nothing more than mediocre, and the Phillies don’t get any better, finishing with just below 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 71-91, 4th in NL East

21. Kansas City Royals

Off-Season Review

The Royals were planning to rebuild after losing much of their core to free agency. But they brought back both 3B Mike Moustakas and SS Alcides Escobar in the end. They also signed CF Jon Jay and 1B Lucas Duda to replace Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain. They still aren’t the same team they were a couple years back though. If they were still attempting to contend, they would’ve added another starting pitcher and they would have held on to DH Brandon Moss.

The Case for the Royals

The Royals were planning to rebuild, but I think their decision to keep their lineup pretty much the same implies that guys like Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert might not be MLB ready yet. The Royals need a couple years before they’ll be able to successfully rebuild. But in the meantime, they’re not making any long-term investments, so you shouldn’t expect more than mediocracy from them.

The Strong Point

The Royals have no plans to be legitimate contenders, but their lineup is underrated. I don’t know why people think their lineup is old and washed up. I could see Alcides Escobar bouncing back for a half decent season. Mike Moustakas is still elite. He may be frustrated back in KC, but if he’s not elite, why were other contending teams making such a big push for him? There were other options. Yunel Escobar and J.J. Hardy are still free agents. At this point, they are unlikely to be signed. Moose was picked over those two, who are decent players. Lucas Duda and Jon Jay can hit too, although it’s been a while since they were in their prime.

Best Case Scenario: Escobar and Alex Gordon bounce back for strong seasons, Moose, Duda and Jay do well in the lineup as well as young 2B Whit Merrifield, and the Royals finish just above .500 after strong hitting and decent pitching.

Worst Case Scenario: The Royals lineup collapses, Moose, Gordon, and Escobar want out, and the Royals are forced to rush prospects to the majors in order to prevent the Royals from falling due to a bad decision/unwillingness for change. The prospects then struggle due to needing more time to develop, and the Royals collapse, finishing last in the division, with below 70 wins.

Note: The Royals are one of those teams that will be very hard to predict this season.

Projected Finish: 73-89, 3rd in AL Central

20. Toronto Blue Jays

Off-Season Review

The Blue Jays had a very interesting off-season. It’s almost like the Jays are rebuilding without overhauling, which is a unique way to do things. Rather than trading Josh Donaldson or even Troy Tulowitzki, and completely emptying out all the vets on their roster, they just made a few good decisions that will help them get younger. They let OF Jose Bautista walk, which was good after his 2017 decline, but they brought in OF Randal Grichuk in a trade. Grichuk is a younger option for them who is also a viable starter, so it works out.

They also brought in Curtis Granderson to platoon with younger outfielders like Dalton Pompey. But they’re still holding on to Tulo and Donaldson for another year to give prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time. They also acquired young infielder Yangervis Solarte from San Diego to assist in that job. They signed a couple good relievers as well, just so they could have a full bullpen.

The Case for the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have managed to hold on to a decent MLB ready roster while still rebuilding, and I think it’s a very good idea that will keep them close to contention throughout their rebuild. But it’s nearly impossible to rebuild and contend at the same time, so the Blue Jays won’t be anything more than decent until they are fully rebuilt. This approach will get them there quickly though. It will be like nobody even noticed their rebuild due to their fast execution. The future is bright.

The Strong Point

The lineup in Toronto is nothing more than decent right now, although they have a nice core between Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak. But the rotation is their real strength. They don’t really have an ace, but many of their pitchers could emerge as an ace and are pretty good despite inconsistency. Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ have all had good stretches. They just need to remain healthy and consistent, which is the difficult part.

Best Case Scenario: The mix of youth and experience in the Jays lineup thrives, the rotation takes the league by storm, and the Blue Jays finish as a close third to the Red Sox and Yankees despite missing the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is plagued by inconsistency and injuries and the lineup’s older players struggle, forcing prospects up early. The Blue Jays find themselves in a pickle with both veterans and prospects struggling and finish right around 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 76-86, 3rd in AL East

19. Texas Rangers

Off-Season Review

The Rangers need to make up their mind. Are they rebuilding, or are they contending? They went out and signed Doug Fister, Bartolo Colon, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Jon Niese, and Tim Lincecum to compete for rotation slots but ended up releasing Colon and Niese after they only made the roster older. The rotation will now look something like this, and I still can’t tell you if this will be accurate:

Cole Hamels LHP
Doug Fister LHP
Martin Perez LHP
Matt Moore LHP
Tim Lincecum RHP

I put Lincecum in there over Minor so they could at least have one RHP in the rotation. Jesse Chavez could also occupy that role. But they also declined to sign an outfielder or a 1B/DH, implying that they might consider a rebuild. They did add 3B Trevor Plouffe and 1B Tommy Joseph though. This is a very confusing team. They don’t even know for sure where guys are starting for them. Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo, and Adrian Beltre could all play third, first or DH. The Rangers have gotten younger, but if they want to rebuild, why did they sign five veteran starters, and why did they hold on to their veterans like Adrian Beltre?

The Case for the Rangers

The Rangers are one of the hardest MLB teams to predict this year. They could dominate or be terrible. They have the tools to contend but also face the risk of holding on to the wrong veterans and collapsing. This season is all about choosing a direction. If they do well early, they’ll get what they need at the deadline and make a run. If not, they’ll likely sell Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and other veterans in a rebuilding effort. They did not make it easy for themselves to choose a direction. They could very well end up stuck in the middle if they decline to choose.

The Strong Point

The Rangers still have a lot of power hitters. Big hitters Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus will lead this lineup alongside younger sluggers like Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo. If Beltre and Andrus stay elite, you can still expect a lot of dingers and big hits in Texas. Rougned Odor and Shin-Soo Choo are also strong hitters who are very familiar in Texas.

Best Case Scenario: The new look rotation actually does surprisingly well, the lineup continues to thrive as usual, and the Rangers finish above .500, placing 2nd or 3rd in the AL West.

Worst Case Scenario: The Rangers decline, as the older players on the team struggle, and the Rangers are forced to rebuild.

Projected Finish: 74-88, 4th in AL West

That’s all for Part 2. Stay tuned for Part 3 coming soon. On a side note, I am proud to announce that we have reached the 4 year anniversary of this blog. I have come a long way, writing 534 posts in 4 years. In that time, I have received almost 20000 views and almost 300 followers. I will be posting more about that later today.

Red Sox Report: Move Needed at Deadline to Cope Through Madness

July 28, 2016July 28, 2016 Andrew Roberts Uncategorized Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, Dodgers, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Fernandez, Julio Teheran, Mariners, Orioles, Red Sox, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays

boston-red-sox

Welcome to this week’s edition of Red Sox Report. With the deadline quickly approaching, the Red Sox may be looking to acquire another pitcher. They are in touch with the White Sox about Chris Sale, who wants a trade. Plus, the White Sox may want him gone after what he did. The Sox could really use another pitcher to work through a brutal 11 game west coast road trip against the Angels, Mariners and Dodgers. However, Craig Kimbrel could be back for that, and we have an injury update on him. We also have Hanley Ramirez in a hot streak despite struggles from Bogaerts and Ortiz since the break. But the Orioles and Blue Jays are also hot, and the Red Sox still aren’t winning the games they need even with Hanley hot. Will they pull ahead or fall behind? It’ll all be mentioned today.

Red Sox Need To Up Their Game Or They’ll Have Problems Coming Up

You think the Sox have it tough right now? They should be winning these games. In some, the pitching wasn’t there, in others, our typical clutch guys have failed to come through. Today the Red Sox enter an 11-game west coast trek to Anaheim, Seattle and Los Angeles. Sure, the Angels might be easier than the rest of the trip but a) They’ve won against the better teams lately b) They’ve done well against the Red Sox and c) Most of the games are at 10:00 PM! Then you have Seattle, a decent team. They could split with us, but for them, that 10:00 is 7:00. They’re used to it. The Sox aren’t. Then the Dodgers are already a good team. Add on late night games and the fact that they haven’t had a day off in over 2 weeks, and it looks as if the Dodgers will earn the 3 game sweep. The Red Sox needed to nail this home stand, and the fact that they struggled makes this road trip even more crucial and tough if they want to be playoff contenders.

Do The Red Sox Need to Make a Move?

The Red Sox have had a pretty good season compared to recent years, but still are having a tough time in some games. The lineup is usually strong but lately, pitching has just gotten worse, and the Red Sox lineup has not been great in clutch situations. Take a game like Tuesday night’s for example. Our lineup did some pretty great things that night. We scored 8 runs! But pitching was terrible, especially Steven Wright, who is still on track for an awesome season despite a rough outing. His ERA got bumped up over 3.00 after giving up 8 runs in 4.2 innings. Robbie Ross Jr. gave up a ninth run, and we were in position for Big Papi to hit his second dinger of the game, but instead, he grounded out, leaving it up to Hanley Ramirez, who also failed to stay hot. The clutch guys in the middle of our lineup failed to come through. They lost, 9-8, and now the Sox have lost 4 out of the last 5 games.

That’s when a trade can come in handy. This is a good Red Sox team that will contend, and they already have a wild card spot. But in order to advance in the playoffs, they need something more, they’re going to be buyers. Pomeranz is some help, but clearly not enough as he lost both games he started anyways. Like I said in my midseason report, we have some options. Chris Sale is one, he wants a trade, and the White Sox may not want him anymore, so he may be on discount. But one of two things is bound to happen, a) Sale will do well and lead us to a deep playoff run, but the prospects Chicago acquires turn out to be great or b) Sale will get into trouble with Boston after we get him on discount, and it turns out he ripped up the jerseys because he has behavior problems, not because he wanted to be traded. Hey, we could get lucky, but I doubt it with the way the Red Sox have had it. Sale might struggle and the trade could be a total bust. Who knows? That’s where the options come in.
Someone like Julio Teheran is much less risky, however, he’s not quite ace material. The Braves would also want some big name prospects. They cannot just give away their best pitcher. Jose Fernandez could be another option. It’s likely the least risky and Fernandez is good enough to be considered an ace. They will however want major league players like Travis Shaw and Blake Swihart as they run at the playoffs themselves. Still, I don’t trust Aaron Hill at third, especially in future years when he needs to resign with us to stay. Shaw may never come back if we trade him, and I don’t like the idea of Pablo Sandoval starting at third next year with Farrell desperate for options so Panda can spend time on the bench where he belongs for the rest of his sucky Red Sox stint. The Marlins might even want more from us, like Mookie Betts and JBJ. The Red Sox may have some risk involved with each of their options, but they need to pick one, and just go with it, because they will be desperate for pitching if they don’t make a trade. There’s no good pitchers in 2016-17 free agency either. They will have relentless problems coming up if they don’t change things up a bit.

Kimbrel Working His Way Back For Road Trip

The Red Sox bullpen is going through some tough times. Although they do have Brad Ziegler and Matt Barnes, the original revamped bullpen from the offseason is down to one healthy pitcher, Junichi Tazawa. Koji Uehara’s timetable for his injury is undetermined and Carson Smith’s season is done. Going into this west coast trip, the Red Sox will need their bullpen in good condition, especially if they don’t step it up with their starting pitching or trade for someone at the deadline. However, one more guy could come back soon, and earlier than we thought. That guy is closer Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel will throw another bullpen session today and could be in for a rehab assignment this weekend. He may return for the road trip, but personally, I think he should take his time since we have Brad Ziegler to close. Nobody wants a banged up Kimbrel to close for us. So, Kimbrel could be back for the road trip, but should he pitch, especially in these late night, tight games, or should he rest up for the next home stand? The decision will come soon.

Hanley On Hot Streak, Hit 5 Dingers in 7 Games

The Red Sox may be struggling in clutch situations, but that doesn’t stop Hanley Ramirez from being streaky old Hanley Ramirez. Thankfully, this time it’s a hot streak. Ramirez won AL Player of The Week after hitting .333 and hit 5 home runs and drove in 12 runs in the 7 days the Sox played the Giants and Twins. Hanley has slowed down a bit in this series, but he went from 8 to 13 dingers and bumped up his average to nearly .300. If Ramirez can keep up the act it would further power the Red Sox lineup and make his signing worth it for once. Can Hanley continue to pull it together, even on a tough west-coast road trip? If he can, that would be pretty amazing.

Division Competition: Can The Sox Keep Up With Baltimore, Toronto?

The Red Sox are currently in third place in the AL East despite a strong record, enough for a wild card slot, but they have not been able to keep up with their division rivals, the Orioles and the Blue Jays. The Orioles had won 5 in a row, sweeping the Indians before losing the last two, but the Red Sox also got swept by the Tigers in a rough series, and that didn’t help. The Jays have won 3 of the last 4 games, and had a 3 game winning streak snapped last night. But the Red Sox fell so far behind in struggles from this home stand that the Jays snuck into second. If the Sox can’t do well in this home stand, the upcoming road trip will be a train wreck. They only have so many home games left. Could that be why the Sox have done well so far? Is this whole good record for the Red Sox a fluke? They need to step it up ASAP if they want to stay in contention.

The Red Sox have had a good season, but something needs to change if the Red Sox want to stay in contention through the tough late July, August and September schedules. Will they stay in contention after the trade deadline, fresh out of a big trade, or will they flop after doing nothing at the deadline? The decision is in Dave Dombrowski’s hands.

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