March Madness 2019: Previewing the Midwest Region

March 20, 2019March 20, 2019 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM Abilene Christian, Abilene Christian Wildcats, Aggies, Auburn, Auburn Tigers, Bill Self, Buckeyes, Corey Davis Jr., Cougars, Cyclones, Gaels, Georgia State, Georgia State Panthers, Heels, Houston, Houston Cougars, Huskies, Iona, Iona Gaels, Iowa State, Iowa State Cyclones, Jayhawks, John Calipari, Kansas, Kansas Jayhawks, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Luke Maye, March Madness, Midwest Region, NCAA Tournament, NCAAB, NCAAM, New Mexico State, New Mexico State Aggies, NM State, North Carolina, North Carolina Tar Heels, Northeastern, Northeastern Huskies, Ohio State, Ohio State Buckeyes, P.J. Washington, Panthers, Pirates, Seton Hall, Seton Hall Pirates, Tar Heels, Terriers, Tigers, Tyler Herro, UNC, UNC Tar Heels, Utah State, Utah State Aggies, Washington, Washington Huskies, Wildcats, Wofford, Wofford Terriers

Welcome to my 4th and final regional preview for March Madness. Today, I’ll be taking a look at the Midwest Region. WIll UNC go far, or will someone upset them along the way? What other big upsets could happen? Keep reading to find out what I think. You can also check out the rest of my regional previews at the links below:

March Madness 2019: Regional Previews

March Madness 2019: Previewing the East Region

March Madness 2019: Previewing the West Region

March Madness 2019: Previewing the South Region

March Madness 2019: Previewing the Midwest Region

I will be previewing the Sweet 16 next week as well!

Now let’s get started with the Midwest:

Round of 64 Preview

Columbus, OH: Games start Friday, March 22, 2019 at 6:50 PM EST on TNT

#8 Utah State vs. #9 Washington

Utah State may have won the MWC after San Diego State’s take down of Nevada, but I still think Washington is the better team here. The Huskies were a bright spot in an unusually weak Pac-12. Expect them to outplay the Aggies, who struggled to keep up with Nevada in a mid-major conference, especially early on. You could argue that the Huskies didn’t win enough games outside the Pac-12, but Utah State hasn’t won many more outside their conference.

The Pick: UPSET ALERT: Washington

#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Iona

The Tar Heels should be able to take care of Iona. The Gaels have found a way to pull some upsets after subpar seasons. But a 16-1 upset is not happening. North Carolina will not have it easy in this tournament like they did last season. But led by longtime Tar Heel leader Luke Maye, they should be able to snuff Iona’s torch before it’s too late.

The Pick: North Carolina

Salt Lake City, UT: Games start Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 1:30 PM EST on TNT

#5 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico State

This should be a close one, and it was one of the hardest games for me to predict. New Mexico State has a long history of pulling upsets in this tourney, and they have reigned over the WAC for at least a few years. The Tigers might not quite be on the level of the SEC’s top teams in Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU, though they managed to win the SEC tournament. However, I don’t think Auburn will have the same luck in this game.

The Pick: UPSET ALERT: New Mexico State

#4 Kansas vs. #13 Northeastern

The Jayhawks had some bad losses this year, including losses to Arizona State, Texas, and West Virginia. But I think Kansas should be able to take care of the Huskies. Northeastern struggled to keep up with Hofstra in a relatively weak Colonial conference. There’s no way they’ll be able to defeat the Big 12 champion, even though Kansas has been inconsistent within their conference.

The Pick: Kansas

Tulsa, OK: Games start Friday, March 22, 2019 at 7:20 PM EST on TBS

#3 Houston vs. #14 Georgia State

The Cougars dominated the AAC this season. Their only losses? Cincinnati, UCF, and Temple. They were also undefeated outside the AAC. That gives me plenty of confidence for them in this tournament. I see them as the best mid-major team this season, and the Panthers should be a pretty easy opponent despite plenty of recent NCAA tournament experience.

The Pick: Houston

#6 Iowa State vs. #11 Ohio State

The Cyclones weren’t quite on the level of the Big 12’s top teams, but they did improve from their 2017-18 performance and will have a shot to make a run in the tourney this year. Ohio State may be inconsistent, but they have beat some elite teams like Iowa and Cincinnati. The Cyclones don’t have that kind of upside, and the Buckeyes will take advantage.

The Pick: UPSET ALERT: Ohio State

Jacksonville, FL: Games start Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 7:10 PM EST on CBS

#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Abilene Christian

Fun fact: this is the only Round of 64 game in which both teams have the same mascot. This is a battle of the Wildcats. Abilene Christian was able to thrive in the weak Southland conference. But they don’t have many quality victories, and Kentucky will be a very tough opponent. Expect Tyler Herro and P.J. Washington to lead Kentucky as they take care of business against ACU. But this won’t even be close to the end of Kentucky’s March Madness run.

The Pick: Kentucky

#7 Wofford vs. #10 Seton Hall

The Terriers came out on top in an unusually strong SoCon. UNC Greensboro, who came in second to them, nearly made it on an at-large bid. But Seton Hall managed to put up a respectable record in their mid-major conference despite placing behind Marquette and Villanova. The Pirates have pulled some interesting upsets in the past, and Wofford may have been consistent, but they lack quality wins outside the SoCon. Look for Seton Hall to take care of business here even though I think the committee overrated them.

The Pick: UPSET ALERT: Seton Hall

Round of 32 and Beyond

Here are my projected Round of 32 match-ups:

#1 North Carolina vs. #9 Washington

#4 Kansas vs. #12 New Mexico State

#3 Houston vs. #11 Ohio State

#2 Kentucky vs. #10 Seton Hall

UNC should be able to take care of Washington. The Tar Heels had a consistent track record this year, especially within the ACC. The Huskies cannot say the same. KU may struggle against New Mexico State, who will be fresh off upsetting Auburn. Kansas lost a lot this off-season, and they may be upset prone, so Bill Self and the Jayhawks won’t be enough to end New Mexico State’s run this year. Houston should win easily over an inconsistent Ohio State squad, and Kentucky will show Seton Hall who’s boss, especially since they will have momentum in their favor after dominating against Abilene Christian.

And the Projected Midwest Winner is…

#2 Kentucky

The Wildcats’ toughest game might be their Sweet 16 battle with Houston. Led by Corey Davis Jr., Houston has done very well in a competitive AAC conference, but Kentucky nearly won everything in an even stronger SEC conference that has 7 representatives in the NCAA Tournament. Despite the tough Regional Finals match-ups, Herro and Washington should lead John Calipari’s team back to the Final 4. UNC will look to stop Kentucky after putting an end to New Mexico State’s run, but even the NM State game will be a rocky ride for UNC, as NM State can really tear apart quality teams, even in games they don’t end up winning. Kentucky is the best equipped for the Final 4: they have easier match-ups, a top head coach, and a duo of leaders on the court. I even picked them to win the championship.

That’s all for this year’s March Madness regional previews. I’ll give you an update on my bracket and revise my predictions next week before the Sweet 16, so stay tuned.

March Madness 2018: Previewing The Midwest Region

March 13, 2018March 13, 2018 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM, Uncategorized Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Arizona State Sun Devils, Arkansas, Atlantic 10, Auburn, B1G, Baylor, Bucknell, CAA, Charleston, Clemson, Davidson, Duke, Duke Blue Devils, ESPN Tournament Challenge, Georgia Tech, Harvard, Iona, Ivy League, Kansas, Kansas Jayhwaks, MAAC, March Madness, Marvin Bagley III, Miami, Michigan State, Miles Bridges, NCAA Tournament, New Mexico State, New Mexico State Aggies, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Round of 64, SEC, Seton Hall, South Carolina, Syracuse, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Trae Young, UNC, UNC Greensboro, URI, USC, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wichita State, Xavier

Welcome to my second annual March Madness preview series, where I break down each region on the bracket and pick my winners for the first two rounds and make my pick on who’s going to the final four. If you’d like to see my full bracket, click on the link below.

Tournament Challenge – ESPN – Boston Sports Mania.pdf

I am starting with the Midwest region. It was named the strongest region of this year’s tournament by Jim Nantz on the Selection Show, and I agree. It’s top three seeds are Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State. But that doesn’t mean that there’s no room for upsets.

Round of 64 Preview

Wichita: Games Start Thursday, March 15 at 2:00 PM EST on TBS

#1 Kansas vs. #16 Pennsylvania

Penn put up a nice victory over Harvard in the Ivy League finals. But the Jayhawks have had another great season, and there’s no way they will lose to the #16 seed in the first round, something that has never happened to a 1 seed. Ivy league things have had a strong history of upsets in the NCAA Tournament, but Kansas won a much bigger conference, the Big 12, and this will be easy for them.

The Pick: Kansas

#8 Seton Hall vs. #9 North Carolina State

NC State had a strong season, and they deserved a tournament bid now that I think about it. But their loss to Boston College was embarrassing. They also lost to Georgia Tech, UNC Greensboro and Northern Iowa during the season, their best wins being over UNC, Arizona, and Duke. The point is that Seton Hall has the better profile this season. They’ve gotten more quality wins on a tougher schedule, and they match up well against NC State.

The Pick: Seton Hall

San Diego: Games Start Friday, March 16 at 7:27 PM EST on truTV

#4 Auburn vs. #13 Charleston

The Tigers were another team who had a late-season skid. They were in the conversation for a 2 seed back in February, but an early loss to Alabama in the SEC tournament hurt them, and they went just 4-4 in their final 8 regular season games, including a loss to the 17-16 South Carolina Gamecocks. But Charleston had it pretty easy in the CAA, and they aren’t the team to upset Auburn. They are just 56th in RPI and had a very easy schedule. Their strong defense will not be enough to top an all-around good Auburn team, who will win game one in their first NCAA Tournament since 2003. Although they finished 4-4, the SEC was really good this year, and Auburn kept up and won the regular season title despite their conference tourney loss to Alabama.

The Pick: Auburn

#5 Clemson vs. #12 New Mexico State

The Aggies have had a better season than you might think. They dominated in the WAC, ranked 35th in RPI, and scored more points per game than Clemson. They’ve also allowed less PPG to their opponents than Clemson has. Clemson skidded a little towards the end of the season after a great start, so they are not coming into this game with as much momentum as they would’ve liked. Clemson’s schedule was much stronger, but recently, Clemson has struggled to keep up with their tough competition, going 9-8 in their final 17 games. Meanwhile, NM State went 12-2 in the WAC while beating Miami, Davidson, and Illinois out of their conference. I’m sensing an upset.

The Pick: New Mexico State

Pittsburgh: Games Start Thursday, March 15 at 12:15 PM EST on CBS

#7 Rhode Island vs. #10 Oklahoma

Oklahoma is another team that really struggled late in their season, but URI was not great in late season play either, losing to Davidson in the Atlantic 10 championship. The Sooners did beat Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU (twice) early on though. They also beat Wichita State as well as Oregon and USC, who were both on the bubble before the Selection Show. However, Rhode Island had a great season, and they had a fair share of quality wins. They beat Providence and Seton Hall outside the Atlantic 10, and did not have any notably bad losses despite being swept by Davidson. Their RPI is also 14th, which is great compared to Oklahoma’s #48 in RPI. URI’s strong defense will shut down Trae Young and the Sooners, who have proven that they cannot always beat who they need to beat in losses to OSU, Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State in their final games before the tournament. But Oklahoma will come close.

The Pick: Rhode Island

#2 Duke vs. #15 Iona

After making the tournament for the third straight year, it’s about time Iona pulls an upset. But Duke is not a team they can get past. The Blue Devils, led by Marvin Bagley III (put up 21.1 PPG this season) have a dominant offense that the Gaels will fail to slow down. Iona is just #108 in RPI, which is even low for a mid-major in the tournament. Somehow, they still keep winning MAAC championships. I don’t know when they’ll be able to go any further.

The Pick: Duke

Detroit: Games Start Friday 3/16 at 7:10 PM EST on CBS

#3 Michigan State vs. #14 Bucknell

Bucknell did really well in the Patriot League, but they failed to grab hold of Quadrant 1 wins, and they had chances against UNC and Arkansas among others. That means that they don’t have the same profile that other potential Cinderellas have, due to the fact that they failed to win quality games, even when given the chance. MSU also had a pretty easy schedule, giving them fewer opportunities for quality wins, but any team who goes 29-4 in the B1G should beat mid-majors without quality victories with ease. They will be led by Miles Bridges, the Spartans guard who averaged 16.9 PPG.

The Pick: Michigan State

#6 TCU vs. #11 Arizona State/Syracuse

First of all, I have Syracuse beating the Sun Devils. ASU struggled in a weak Pac-12, which weighs them down despite wins over Kansas and Xavier. Syracuse had some nice wins despite a roller coaster of a season, and I can see the Orange winning. TCU put up a nice season in the Big 12 after struggles in 2016-17, but they slipped up a couple times against mediocre teams like Oklahoma State and Vanderbilt. I could see the same happening against Syracuse, who has had some strong wins mixed in with their tough losses, including one over Miami and one over Virginia Tech. Syracuse advances to the Round of 32 after beating both ASU and TCU.

The Pick: Syracuse

Round of 32 Preview

If my first round picks are correct, the Round of 32 will line up like this:

#1 Kansas vs. #8 Seton Hall

#4 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico State

#2 Duke vs. #7 Rhode Island

#3 Michigan State vs. #11 Syracuse

I think Kansas will beat Seton Hall here. Seton Hall has had a nice season with quality wins in their conference on a tough schedule, but again, Kansas went 27-7 and won the Big 12 with the 2nd hardest schedule in the league, ranking 5th in RPI. The Jayhawks have a dominant offense that will make the case for them. I think there will also be more upsets in this round though. New Mexico State will beat Auburn. The Aggies were dominant all season, not just in the WAC but against high major non-conference opponents like Miami. Auburn skid late into the season, going 4-5 to finish, losing to South Carolina in a regular season game and Alabama in the SEC tournament. New Mexico State’s defense will shut down Auburn.

I see Rhode Island pulling an upset over Duke as well. Name one game Rhode Island should be ashamed of losing. There are none I can name, besides their losses to Davidson, and the Wildcats are underrated. Duke has a history of losing in early rounds of the Big Dance, and they already lost to St. John’s, Boston College, and other lower tier teams this season. I do think MSU will top Syracuse though. The Orange may have had some good wins this season, but overall, it wasn’t a great season, and I think the committee had better options for the last team in when building the bracket, such as USC. So don’t expect Syracuse to get past MSU and make the Sweet 16. The Round of 32 is not out of the question though.

And The Projected Midwest Champion Is…

#3 Michigan State

With Duke being eliminated early by an underrated URI team, MSU’s odds to win this region will increase. You could argue for them as a #2 seed, but they lucked out with their schedule, even though they might have to face Duke and/or Kansas, which would be tough. They’ve had it easy in terms of scheduling all season, but they went 29-4, and just because their schedule was easy, it doesn’t mean they can’t beat other top teams. Getting past Kansas will be tough, but I think this team is capable of great things. This is their time to prove that they are the championship contender people think they are.

That’s all for this preview. Stay tuned for Part 2, where I will take a look at the East Region.

Bracketology 3.0: Who’s In & Who’s Out After Championship Week

March 11, 2018 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM, Uncategorized Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Boise State, Bracketology, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Clemson, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Gonzaga, Houston, Iona, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Louisville, Loyola-Chicago, March Madness, Marshall, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Montana, Murray State, NCAA, NCAA Basketball, NCAAM, Nevada, New Mexico State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, San Diego State, Selection Sunday, South Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, Texas, Texas Tech, UCLA, UMBC, UNC, UNC Greensboro, Vermont, Villanova, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Xavier

Selection Sunday is finally here. Most tickets are already punched, and as you are reading this, it is likely that the selection committee is building their bracket. For this bracketology, I followed the real algorithm that the selection committee uses, the only differences being that I do not represent any NCAA team (even as a fan) and that my bracketologies are made by a one person committee (me), so that saved me time that the committee spends voting.

For this bracketology, I have provided analysis for each of the four regions I have put together. I will also give you a final look at this year’s Bubble Watch.

Note: On this bracket, the final five automatic bids that are available have been awarded to the teams I have predicted to win today. This bracket was finalized this morning around 9:00 AM EST. (This did not account for Davidson’s A10 title)

East Region

Villanova secured their 1 seed with an OT victory over Providence in the Big East championship. Cincinnati should secure their #2 with a win over Houston today. I couldn’t see an overload of upsets here, as Villanova, Cincinnati and other powerhouses make this a strong conference. But do not sleep on Michigan, who quietly made their way into the Big Ten finals and beat Purdue, putting an end to Purdue’s contention for a #1 seed and giving a huge boost to Michigan in the selection process. Rhode Island could be another surprise team here, as long as they hold off a rising Providence team. Alongside Providence, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo, and UNC Greensboro could also pull upsets.

I think Buffalo could easily upset a Clemson team that struggled a bit late into the season. UNC Greensboro could also pose a significant threat to a Texas Tech team that was contending for a Big 12 title until the final weeks of the season. Loyola-Chicago could also be dangerous after going 28-5, a great record for a mid-major team. In the end, I think this conference will come down to Villanova, Cincy, and possibly Michigan.

West Region

Much like Villanova, Kansas secured their #1 seed with the Big 12 win. But Villanova was already a practical lock for one, while Kansas competed with several other teams for the fourth 1 seed. That leaves Duke, also a #1 contender who I have in the west region, in a #2 seed. They will likely compete for the final four in another strong conference. Wichita State, Gonzaga, and Kentucky among others could also contend. But even though it looks unlikely for Cinderella teams to make a crazy run without pulling a shocker over Kansas or Duke, I do see upsets happening.

New Mexico State has pulled upsets in the past, and they could become a Cinderella if they can get to the Sweet 16 over Nevada and Duke. Boise State and San Diego State, who came close to Nevada in the battle for the Mountain West’s regular-season title, could also pull upsets. SDSU had to beat Nevada to get to the title game and win the conference tourney. Boise State is now on the bubble after failing to win the Mountain West in both the regular season and playoffs, but despite a lack of strong victories, I think they are on the committee’s radar. Montana is the mid-major team I could see pulling a shocking upset. But they’ll have to get past Gonzaga, a west coast powerhouse.

UCLA and Western Kentucky make up half of my Last Four In, and they could also pull an upset. I think UCLA should be in after making the Pac-12 semifinals, and I value Western Kentucky’s win over Purdue very highly, so even in a mid-major conference, I think they can make it after falling to Marshall last night. In the end, as I had said before, I think it will be Kansas or Duke that comes out of the west.

South Region

This region is a little more upset friendly. Michigan State was upset in the first round the last time they were a #2 seed, and although I doubt UMBC can beat MSU, it’s a possibility that Florida can beat them. Although Virginia was the best team in the league during the regular season, I don’t know if they will have the same success under the pressure of March Madness. They should make the Sweet 16, but after that, the pressure could get to them. Auburn is pushed into the #3 slot after losing to Florida in the SEC tournament. There will be plenty of upsets here. Stephen F. Austin upset West Virginia in 2016, but can they do the same to the #4 seed Arizona? SFA got here by winning the Southland championship last night.

Bubble teams like Alabama and Louisville, who round out my Last Four In, could pull an upset as well, especially against West Virginia. SFA will also have a chance to beat West Virginia again if they both win in the Round of 64, so even as a #5, West Virginia will not have it easy. However, teams like SFA and Louisville are not serious contenders. Look for Houston and Florida to pull upsets later on to contend for the conference alongside Virginia, MSU, and others.

Midwest Region

This is the conference that I see having the most upsets. Xavier proved that they can struggle under pressure after losing to Providence in the Big East semifinals. Will lower seeds get a piece of them, especially in later rounds? I think Ohio State could be the team that upsets them, in the Sweet 16. Although OSU lost to Penn State multiple times, including in the B1G quarterfinals, I see them bouncing back for a deep run, especially if they can beat an ambitious South Dakota State team, who nearly pulled an upset last time they were here, as a #12 seed.

Iona is another team to watch. Purdue has struggled a bit of late, and the Gaels surprised many by winning the MAAC and returning to the Big Dance. Murray State and Charleston are also among the mid-majors with plenty of upside in this region. Even bubble teams, like Middle Tennessee could pull upsets. I still see the dominant Blue Raiders as a tournament team. They made a mistake. It just happened to occur in the conference semifinals. Marshall, who beat them, went on to win Conference USA. With Xavier, Purdue, and other high seeds being matched up against high upside teams, UNC and Ohio State among others could emerge as contenders for the Final Four.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In

UCLA
Alabama
Louisville
Western Kentucky

UCLA should still make it. They finished with a decent record and made the Pac-12 semifinals, and although USC is in a better position, UCLA has a pretty secure slot. On the other hand, I didn’t have Alabama in the field of 68 until they made the SEC semifinals. Their impressive run should put them on the committee’s radar.

You could argue that Louisville’s late collapse and lack of quality wins will cause them to drop out of the field, but I still see them as a contender for a spot after beating FSU to make the ACC quarterfinals. They didn’t have a chance against Virginia, so the FSU win might be enough to put Louisville in and kick FSU out. Western Kentucky’s success in the C-USA will help them, but it’s their wins over Purdue and other high major conference teams that proves them worthy of grabbing a spot. You could argue for Louisiana or Vermont instead, but WKU has more quality victories.

First Four Out

Florida State
Oregon
Penn State
Syracuse

FSU could be put in the field of 68 over Louisville or WKU, but they lacked quality wins. Oregon’s struggles in the weakening Pac-12 will keep them out. They couldn’t stay on top in a downfall for most Pac-12 teams. Penn State is on the committee’s radar after their upset of OSU, but it’s not enough to put them in the tourney. Syracuse will also miss the tournament. They had some impressive wins, but also embarrassing losses. All these teams will be in serious consideration though.

Next Four Out

North Carolina State
Texas
Vermont
Louisiana

NC State’s loss to Boston College likely burst their bubble. They are not even in my first four out anymore. Texas’ lack of quality wins plus their 14 loss season likely put an end to their hopes. Vermont and Louisiana may be mid-majors who lost their conference, but they dominated in regular season play. However, it does not compare to what high major teams on the bubble have done, as both Vermont and Louisiana lack Quadrant 1 wins.

That’s all for my bracketology. Stay tuned for my bracket breakdown series, which will be released throughout the week after the selection show.

Bracketology 2.0: MSU Snags a 1-Seed Before Conference Tourneys

February 28, 2018March 11, 2018 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM, Uncategorized Auburn, Belmont, Boise State, Bracketology, Cincinnati, FGCU, Florida, Houston, Jacksonville State, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, March Madness, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Murray State, NCAA, Nevada, New Mexico State, North Carolina, Northern Kentucky, Ohio State, Oregon, Purdue, Rhode Island, South Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, USC, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Weber State, Wichita State, Xavier

Welcome to the second of my three 2018 March Madness bracketologies. In this bracket prediction, automatic bids were awarded to teams that I think will win their conference tourneys. Who is in? Who is out? Read below to find out.

Note: This bracketology was created on February 25th.

East Region

Villanova
Auburn
Duke
West Virginia
Miami
Rhode Island
Florida
Louisville
Arkansas
Murray State
Louisiana
Vermont
Buffalo
ETSU
Pennsylvania
UNC Asheville/Texas Southern

The East is a highly SEC and ACC dominated region, but also includes dark horses from smaller conferences. Auburn has continued to impress people, so they jump into a #2 seed on my bracket. They aren’t quite up there with the #1 seeded teams, but they’re close and could pose a threat to Villanova, the East’s #1 team. I could also see some bigger upsets. I could see Louisville making a run in the ACC tourney, earning them a slightly higher seed and putting them in line to try and become the second straight #8 seed to upset Villanova. Florida and Rhode Island could also make runs.

I still see Florida as a SEC contender (and my projected SEC winner, in an upset). Rhode Island is a big dark horse in the tournament who has dominated their smaller conference. Vermont is another small conference dark horse, but they’ll have to get past Miami to make a run (I think it’s highly possible). In this scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised if a team outside the Top 4 makes the Final Four here. There could be a lot of upsets in this region.

Midwest Region

Michigan State
Kansas
Tennessee
Clemson
Wichita State
Michigan
Nevada
Virginia Tech
USC
Middle Tennessee
Loyola-Chicago
St. Bonaventure
Belmont/Butler
Charleston
Bucknell
Florida Gulf Coast

This is a strong conference. You could argue for Kansas or Michigan State as a #1 seed, especially if they win their respective conferences like I think they will, but MSU only lost three games all season. They may have had an easier schedule than most, but 28-3 is the best record in the league right now. Wichita State could also be a contender in the conference. They are known for surprise success in the NCAA Tournament.

Middle Tennessee could also surprise people as they usually do. Nevada, their projected opponent, has had a great season, but they may receive a rude awakening against Middle Tennessee, who has won a March Madness game in each of the last two years while they have dominated their small conference. Just because they are in a small conference, it does not mean they are not good.

As for bubble teams in the conference, I see FGCU making it after winning their conference. They’ve had a rough stretch of late, but I think they’ll make it in (they don’t have a chance as a #16 seed though). I do think USC and Virginia Tech will make it despite having trouble competing in tougher conferences. I also think St. Bonaventure making it in despite losing to Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10. Will they be able to get past Wichita State in Round 1? In the end, this is a pretty strong conference where the top teams will be pretty hard to beat. But do not be surprised to see an upset or two, especially in later rounds.

South Region

Xavier
Purdue
North Carolina
Texas Tech
Saint Mary’s
Kentucky
Houston
Seton Hall
Florida State
Kansas State
Oregon
UNC Greensboro
Stephen F. Austin
Northern Kentucky
Jacksonville State
Hampton/UC Irvine

I see another upset-heavy region here. Jacksonville State is one upset threat, and they’re my bold pick to win the OVC. I still think Murray State and Belmont can make the tourney if they lose out to JSU, but they will not have the same momentum. Stephen F. Austin is another bold pick for me. They pulled a big upset the last time they were here, and I see them beating out Nicholls in the Southland conference and making the NCAA tournament. Even Northern Kentucky, who just made it here for the first time in 2017 could be a candidate to pull an upset. They’ve taken over the Horizon League, and they’ll also come in with momentum. UNC Greensboro and Oregon among others are also candidates within the region.

Contenders to win this conference will include UNC and Kentucky in addition to the top 2 seeds in Xavier and Purdue. Houston could also be a sleeper after doing well in the AAC despite trailing behind Cincinnati and Wichita State. But be prepared for crazy results in the South region.

West Region

Virginia
Cincinnati
Ohio State
Arizona
Gonzaga
Creighton
Arizona State
TCU
UCLA
New Mexico State
Boise State
South Dakota State
BYU/Montana
Weber State
Wagner
Canisius

There are a lot of sleeper teams here, but also a lot of legitimate contenders in Cincinnati, Ohio State, UVA and others. Arizona could be in some turmoil, but I think a high seed team will come out of the region. There will be some upsets though. South Dakota State could be a big upset team after dominating their conference in 2017-18. I think Weber State could pull an upset if they make it here, and I think they can win the Big Sky. Boise State and New Mexico State could also be Cinderella teams. Cincinnati is my favorite to win the conference, but many other dark horses and favorites will compete.

That’s all for this bracketology. Stay tuned for more March Madness coverage soon.

March Madness 2017: Previewing the East Region

March 14, 2017March 14, 2017 Andrew Roberts March Madness, NCAAM, Uncategorized Aggies, Amile Jefferson, Badgers, Baylor, Blue Devils, Cavaliers, Duke, Duke Blue Devils, Eastern Tennessee State, ETSU, Florida, Florida Gators, Gators, Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum, March Madness, Marquette, Mount St. Mary's, NCAAM, New Mexico State, New Mexico State Aggies, New Orleans, Providence, Seahawks, SMU, South Carolina, Troy, UNC Wilmington, UNC Wilmington Seahawks, USC, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Cavaliers, Wisconsin, Wisconsin Badgers

Welcome to Part 3 of my March Madness preview. Last time, we looked at the Midwest region. There were some potential upsets there but in the end, the top seeds rule that conference. Now, we move on to the East Region, one of two regions that will truly define March Madness. Yes, there will be some pretty hardcore madness in both the East and West. Now let’s get to it.

Missed a previous article? Check here:

March Madness 2017: Previewing the South Region

March Madness 2017: Previewing the Midwest Region

If you were also wondering about my full bracket, here it is.

#5 Virginia vs. #12 UNC Wilmington

Thursday 3/16 @12:40 PM EST on truTV

Virginia is a pretty good team, but I just don’t see them as a contender. Sure, they had tough competition but they were very streaky and looked terrible at times. UNC Wilmington didn’t play in as big a conference, but they were a much more consistent team. They nearly upset the Duke Blue Devils last year in the first round. UNC Wilmington has four players that average 12 PPG or more. The Cavaliers only have one. UNC Wilmington is the better team based on consistency and scoring and will pull the upset here.

The Pick: UNC Wilmington

#4 Florida vs. #13 ETSU

Thursday 3/16 @3:10 PM EST on truTV

Eastern Tennessee State was not even the favorite to win the Southern conference, a small conference. I think you can trust the Gators here, at least in this round. Sure, they’re an upset target after their SEC tourney performance. But I think they can beat a team like ETSU, a team that wouldn’t be here without their conference tournament win. Gators win easily in this round, but could the UNC Wilmington Seahawks give them trouble?

The Pick: Florida

#1 Villanova vs. #16 Mount St. Mary’s

Thursday 3/16 @7:10 PM EST on CBS

Mount St. Mary’s just beat New Orleans in their First Four game, but beating Villanova, the defending champion and number one overall seed will be a much tougher challenge. Villanova will have it easy here. There’s no way the #1 seed will be beaten by the #16 seed, especially when it’s the #1 overall seed. This game is going to the Wildcats in a clear blowout.

The Pick: Villanova

#8 Wisconsin vs. #9 Virginia Tech

Thursday 3/16 @9:40 PM on CBS

Virginia Tech has had a good season, but the Badgers are an underrated team that should be higher. They were runner-up in the Big Ten tourney and regular season play. Wisconsin should’ve been seeded higher, but even in the #8 seed, they could be a serious contender and sneaky dark horse team, especially if they face Villanova in the Round of 32. That game could go either way. Yes, I think Wisconsin is good enough to potentially beat the Wildcats. They should be able to top the Hokies.

The Pick: Wisconsin

#3 Baylor vs. #14 New Mexico State

Friday 3/17 @12:40 PM on truTV

Baylor started off the season very strongly. They looked like a #1 seed. However, towards the end of the season, they quietly collapsed. They eventually started losing to teams like Iowa State and ended up far from the regular season Big 12 title. The Aggies have found their way to pull some upsets in this tourney before, and they might have a chance to shock Baylor here while they’re on a downward track. This game could actually go either way.

The Pick: New Mexico State

#6 SMU vs. #11 USC/Providence

Friday 3/17 @3:10 PM EST on truTV

I know, SMU is one of the highest trending teams in the league and a serious sleeper, but their fate depends on this First Four game. If Providence wins, SMU could move on to be a serious sleeper. If USC wins, they could have the power to upset SMU before they can upset other teams. USC just barely made it, but they weren’t so bad in a tough Pac-12. Now that they’re here, USC could be very sneaky and dangerous for other teams. They just have to beat Providence, which I think they’ll do.

The Pick: USC

#2 Duke vs. #15 Troy

Friday 3/17 @7:20 PM EST on TBS

Troy wouldn’t be here if they didn’t win their conference, and they weren’t even close to being the favorite to win it. They were not even in the Top 5 in the Sun Belt Conference, and they don’t have that hard a conference to play in. Duke will surely be able to top them. You can never count out Duke. They had some inconsistencies this season, but this game is clearly in their favor. They will at least make it far.

The Pick: Duke

#7 South Carolina vs. #10 Marquette

Friday 3/17 @9:50 PM EST on TBS

The Gamecocks finished the season poorly, but Marquette should not be here. They’re 19-12 in the Big East and they made it to the NCAA Tournament. South Carolina may have it easier than you think in the first round. This could be anybody’s game, but this will be painful to watch. The winner will go on to play Duke and likely be annihilated. But in this game, I think South Carolina will edge out the victory.

The Pick: South Carolina

Round of 32 Preview

Here’s a look at what the Round of 32 may look like:

#1 Villanova vs. #8 Wisconsin

#4 Florida vs. #12 UNC Wilmington

#14 New Mexico State vs. #11 USC

#2 Duke vs. #7 South Carolina

Like I said, Duke will annihilate South Carolina, or Marquette if they win. Now for the true meaning of March Madness. First off, it’s tough to pick between NM State and USC, but one of them will face Duke in the Sweet 16. They probably won’t get much farther than that, though. Now, the two upsets I will predict in this round are UNC Wilmington over Florida and Wisconsin over Villanova. Despite Villanova being the #1 overall seed, it’s hard to win two years in a row. Villanova has struggled as a #1 seed, and Wisconsin could be a very sneaky sleeper. I also think UNC Wilmington is capable of making the Sweet 16. Florida did not do well in the SEC tourney and UNC Wilmington is a serious dark horse. That would send Wisconsin, UNC Wilmington, New Mexico State or USC, and Duke to the Sweet 16,

And the projected East champion is…

#2 Duke

You can never count out Duke. Still, the Blue Devils have been inconsistent, so they will make it far, but I don’t think they’ll win the championship. However, the trio of Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum and Amile Jefferson should allow Duke to come out of this region. Especially if Villanova is upset like I think they will be, Duke could become a serious threat in this region. Like I said, I trust all the #2 seeds to go far.

That’s all for Part 3. In Part 4, the final part, we will look at the West Region, and I will share my reason behind my Final Four predictions. Part 4 will be coming before the tourney starts on Thursday.

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