Welcome to my Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks. Last week was not great for me. I went 4-9, putting my overall record at 85-74-2. I am no longer ahead of any experts, but I am tied with CBS Sports expert Jason La Canfora. Thanksgiving is one of my favorite holidays. I love the food, I love seeing my family, I enjoy watching the parade, and I especially love the football. Who will win in today’s football games? Expect a big week for home teams, but I think one home team will have their Thanksgiving spoiled. Keep reading to find out which team that is, and feel free to comment with your thoughts.
12:30 PM EST
Look for a dominant day by Khalil Mack and the Bears defense against Detroit. Without WRs Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, the Lions offense will struggle to get into a rhythm. Chicago’s offense won’t be at its best either, but the defensive excellence makes up for it. This will allow the Bears to spoil Detroit’s Thanksgiving.
4:30 PM EST
The injury-riddled Washington offense will miss QB Alex Smith and WR Jamison Crowder. But they will manage to keep this close against the young Dallas D. Meanwhile, QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense will continue to improve with the addition of WR Amari Cooper, leading the Cowboys to win their Turkey Day game in a close one.
8:20 PM EST
Expect the Saints defense to perform better than usual, holding Atlanta to 1 TD in New Orleans. New Orleans won’t be at their best offensively either, but expect them to get by against the weak Falcons D. The Falcons will begin to panic as they struggle in all aspects in this game.
That’s all for my Thanksgiving Day Picks. Stay tuned for the rest of my picks later this week.
It’s that time of year again. Football is finally back! Today, I will share my predictions for each of the Week 1 games, and I have included a video preview for the Patriots game. In the future, I may include 2-3 other game previews in addition to a Patriots preview. I think the NFL is going to be especially competitive this year, so every win counts, even if it’s against a below average team. Comment with your thoughts and I hope you’re all as excited as I am to watch some regular season football.
Lock of the Week
The Broncos are coming off a really strong draft that helped revamp their offense alongside the signing of QB Case Keenum. I think the Broncos young pair of running backs will flourish against a declining Seahawks defense. I don’t think Case Keenum will ever repeat his spectacular 2017, but I do see him having a strong game and taking advantage of the newfound WR depth in Denver. In the 2017 draft, Denver finally found a third receiver to play alongside Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, and I see him playing a significant role right off the bat.
This Broncos defense is also nearly as strong as it was last year. Considering Seattle’s 2017 offensive struggles, I think Denver could easily hold the Seahawks under 20 points. This will allow Denver to blow Seattle out and get revenge on Seattle for routing the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Upset of the Week (MNF)
I think this will be a close call, but I can’t see this stacked Raiders offense losing to the Rams in Oakland. They have a trio of talented receivers, a good mix of long-time veterans and younger guys in the backfield, and a decent QB and tight end group. They also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Rams are one of my two overrated teams of the year. Sure, they made some exciting moves this off-season, but they lost a lot to free agency in the process.
The Raiders defense may not be looking so good after losing DE Khalil Mack, but their secondary isn’t as bad as it seems. I see the secondary keeping QB Jared Goff’s receivers well covered, leaving Goff struggling to find open men. Meanwhile, I don’t see the Raiders offense putting up 30+ points against a relatively strong Rams defense. But I do see them getting by with just enough to pull off the upset in this one.
TNF (Posted on Twitter on Thursday – Actual Score: 18-12 Eagles)
QB Carson Wentz may be out, but backup QB Nick Foles can still lead teams to victory when it matters. I don’t see Foles playing quite at Super Bowl level in this one, but competition motivates him. I think Foles will throw for 2 touchdowns despite being slowed down by the Falcons front seven. Look out for a big game out of WR Mike Wallace as well. With WR Alshon Jeffery injured, coverage will be drawn towards TE Zach Ertz and WR Nelson Agholor, Philly’s next two best pass-catchers. For the Falcons, I think veteran WR Julio Jones and rookie WR Calvin Ridley will have a strong week. But it won’t be enough for a victory with QB Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s RB duo struggling against the Eagles defensive front.
It’s sure to be an intense game with two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks facing off. I think both QBs, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, will have strong games. But they will be held back by their lack of wide receiver depth, especially Houston, who will be without WR Will Fuller (hamstring). However, this opens up an opportunity for a strong game by WR DeAndre Hopkins. I also see RB Lamar Miller having a strong game with sophomore RB D’Onta Foreman injured. Meanwhile, as the Patriots typically do, expect Tom Brady to find creative ways to score despite the lack of WR depth with Julian Edelman suspended, and that will lead them to a Week 1 victory.
The Ravens have one of the stronger defensive fronts in the league, and I can’t see QB Nathan Peterman having a strong game against Baltimore after his regular season struggles in 2017. I don’t see Joe Flacco doing much better, but I think veteran WR Michael Crabtree will find a way to produce against the strong Buffalo secondary, and I think WR John Brown will begin to look like his old self, leading the Ravens in receiving while Crabtree is facing heavier coverage. I don’t think the Bills stellar run game will be enough to outdo the Ravens, but I do think they will force overtime. From there Baltimore will secure the victory with strong defense and a well-crafted winning drive.
This will be an interesting game. We have a match-up between two younger quarterbacks looking to take it to the next level. I think both Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill and Titans QB Marcus Mariota will have promising showings in a close one. Even without WR DeVante Parker, I think the Dolphins wide receivers will step it up in this game to make it close. But I think the Titans receivers are ready to tear apart Miami’s secondary. Expect a big game from veteran TE Delanie Walker, even against S Reshad Jones. You also could see a very strong game out of WR Corey Davis. This is only the beginning of what I think will be Corey Davis’ breakout year. Walker and Davis will lead the Titans past Miami in a close one.
I think the Steelers will manage a victory here. But the Browns will make it closer than we’ve seen in a game between these two teams in a long time, with a strong offensive showing. I don’t think QB Tyrod Taylor will look that good against the Steelers D. But I think he’ll manage to find open receivers such as WR Jarvis Landry and TE David Njoku for portions of the game. With RB Le’Veon Bell likely out, expect RB James Conner and RB Stevan Ridley to step it up against the Browns D in Bell’s place. I think the Steelers offense will just be too much for Cleveland’s rebuilding D, especially with a strong game from WR Antonio Brown and a strong debut from rookie WR James Washington.
Andrew Luck is finally back. I think he’ll look like his old self, but I see him struggling to find reliable receivers. Besides T.Y. Hilton, Luck doesn’t have many of them. Meanwhile, I think the Bengals offense, led by WR A.J. Green will dominate a Colts defense that isn’t looking great. I think Cincy’s defensive front will look good and shut down the Colts’ young run game. But I don’t think the Bengals secondary will look much better than Indy’s without S George Iloka. That will at least allow T.Y. Hilton to have a strong game and make this a little closer.
I don’t think Jaguars QB Blake Bortles will be especially strong against the Giants D, but he’ll find enough open receivers to edge out a victory. Meanwhile, the Jaguars stellar defense will help secure Jacksonville’s lead by holding the Giants under 20 points and 2 touchdowns. However, I see WR Odell Beckham Jr. outplaying Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey and scoring New York’s only TD in an epic WR-CB match-up. But I think rookie RB Saquon Barkley and the Giants run game will be shut down by the strong Jacksonville front seven.
I think QB Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers receivers will have a decent game here. But the Vikings defense will limit them significantly, allowing the Vikes to blowout the Niners with Minnesota’s offense outplaying a mediocre 49ers D. I think QB Kirk Cousins will find plenty of open men to throw to in the end zone, and I expect a strong game out of the Vikings RB duo (Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray) with Cook healthy. I think the one Vikings receiver that will struggle is Adam Thielen, who will likely be matched up against star corner Richard Sherman. But Vikings WR Laquon Treadwell will show promise after a slow start to his NFL career and play a role in Minnesota’s victory.
This Buccaneers front seven is extremely underrated, and I don’t see the Saints run game thriving against them with RB Mark Ingram suspended. But with Bucs QB Jameis Winston also suspended, I don’t think Tampa Bay will put up enough points to outdo the Saints in New Orleans. The Saints are the other team I see as overrated, but I still cannot see them losing to a Winston-less Bucs offense at home. I think the Saints defense will play well enough. Offensively, Drew Brees and Michael Thomas will work together to secure the Saints a victory.
With QB Patrick Mahomes II starting for the Chiefs, I don’t think the offense will look as good as it did last year. But I do think RB Kareem Hunt, WR Tyreek Hill, and TE Travis Kelce will help Mahomes and the Chiefs keep this game close. However, I see the Chargers offense looking pretty good in this game. WR Mike Williams will look strong at full health, and QB Philip Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon will also put up strong performances, leading the Chargers to victory despite sloppy defense by both teams.
The Panthers had a very strong pre-season, and I think they can carry the momentum into the regular season against the Cowboys. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Panthers QB Cam Newton throw 3-4 touchdowns in this one. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will keep this interesting as I expect him to throw at least 2 touchdowns. However, I think RB Ezekiel Elliott will have a tough time against a really strong Panthers front seven.
I don’t think Cardinals QB Sam Bradford will quite look like his old self. But I see him staying healthy and tossing a couple touchdowns in his first start since early last season. I expect QB Alex Smith and RB Adrian Peterson to have strong days as well, making this close. But I think the Cardinals win in the end, led by a dominant day for RB David Johnson in his return, and a strong performance by CB Patrick Peterson in man-to-man coverage against Redskins WR Jamison Crowder.
With QB Aaron Rodgers back at full speed, expect a strong game by the Packers offense. I see Rodgers tossing at least 2 touchdowns, and TE Jimmy Graham having an especially strong day. Graham was a great signing, and Rodgers and Graham will make for an amazing QB-TE combo. Rodgers hasn’t had that for a long time. The Bears offense will look strong in this game as well. But I cannot see them putting up as many points as Green Bay does with Rodgers at full health, making the Pack victorious in Rodgers’ return.
I expect QB Matthew Stafford to look sharp in prime time against a mediocre Jets D. His receivers should have a strong showing as well, with WR Kenny Golladay showing flashes of dominance, and veteran WR Golden Tate looking better than he was last year. I also think RB Ameer Abdullah will step up his game this season, starting with this prime time match-up. Meanwhile, the Jets offense will look revamped with WR Quincy Enunwa healthy and RB Isaiah Crowell and WR Terrelle Pryor Jr. on board. But I still don’t think it is going to be enough.
That’s all for my NFL Week 1 picks and previews. Be sure to comment with your thoughts, and enjoy the first Football Sunday of 2018.
Last week was shaky, but come on, it’s time for me to get real. I’m basing my picks from here on out on a combination of one, what I’ve seen, and two, as always, the predictions out of my mind and my gut. So, again, lets GET REAL. Now on with my picks.
Lock Of The Week
Patriots, 41, Redskins, 17
This game is kind of a joke. But we are the Patriots. We can’t treat it like that. We have to prepare for it like any other game. Still, this will be a big blowout. Both of the best defenders on the team are questionable. Without Ryan Kerrigan and DeAngelo Hall, the Patriots will put on a show.
Blount Force Trauma will still get guarded if Kerrigan plays. But Dion Lewis will have a big game, even if Terrance Knighton, the third biggest component, guards him. This will still be a bigger game for Brady to pass to all his weapons. I could see Danny Amendola having a huge game, with Gronk or Edelman guarded by Hall. In the last three games, Amendola is 16 for 19 with 202 yards and a touchdown. In weeks 1-5, Amendola was 10 for 13 with only 98 yards and a touchdown.
On the Redskins side, their rushing game will not be functional against a heavily rush based Patriots defense. But if DeSean Jackson returns, he has potential to be a star. But with Devin McCourty on him some of the time, Jackson may be limited. If he’s out, I’d expect Jamison Crowder’s surprises to continue. Sure, he’s hasn’t yet been effective in the end zone, but he’ll be tempted to score his first NFL touchdown. Jordan Reed will get the rest of Devin McCourty or Patrick Chung, so tight ends won’t be functional either.
Notable Locks: Saints over Titans, Bengals over Browns, Jets over Jaguars, Steelers over Raiders
Upset Of The Week
Colts, 51, Broncos, 33
The Colts have more potential in their offense than you might think, even against the almighty Broncos defense. The Colts’ running backs will have full guard. Frank Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw have DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller on them. But the receivers and tight ends are in better hands. Really good players like T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Dwayne Allen will have full guard (Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby, Brandon Marshall or T.J. Ward), Guys that haven’t gotten their chance yet this year, like Andre Johnson, Philip Dorsett and Coby Fleener, could have dominant games and lead the Colts offense to a breakout.
The Colts defense fits the Broncos offense pretty darn well. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have D’ Qwell Jackson and Robert Mathis. DeMaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have Vontae Davis and Greg Toler. Vernon Davis should also have Darius Butler. That leaves just Cody Latimer and Owen Daniels, oh, and also now third string tight end Virgil Green. Thy still can rack up lots of points, but they will have a little more trouble than Indy getting to the end zone, giving Indy the upset win.
Notable Upsets: Panthers over Packers, Cowboys over Eagles
Jets, 37, Jaguars, 27
Bills, 28, Dolphins, 21
Bengals, 28, Browns, 21
Steelers, 20, Raiders, 16
Saints, 24, Titans, 9
Chargers, 24, Bears, 20
Cowboys, 34, Eagles, 27
Giants, 20, Buccaneers, 17
Panthers, 17, Packers, 6 (NOTE: Panthers defense dominates, Packers fail to score on them)
Vikings, 37, Rams, 34
Falcons, 34, 49ers, 20
Team Of The Week
This team has typically been good, but is a feast or famine team
This team lost a star this off season, but this player has been disappointing on his new team.
This team’s defensive coordinator is the brother of a head coach in the AFC.
This team’s division was very weak last year.
This team has a quarterback I would consider top 10 all time material.