Football season is quickly approaching, and teams have began to prepare for the upcoming year. The AFC could be a very competitive conference, but which teams have enough talent to be playoff contenders? My cousin Michael Philipkosky and I broke it all down in this episode of his podcast, the Master Plan.
Welcome to Part 7 of my NFL Draft Report Cards. Last week, I reviewed the AFC North, where the Browns and Ravens boasted a couple of the best draft classes in the entire league. The AFC South doesn’t have any teams that dominated to this extent. In fact, one team struggled more than any other team in the entire AFC. Keep reading to see my grade for each pick as well as my final grades. As I post more articles, I will also include links to the rest of my draft grades.
AFC West
Tennessee Titans
I didn’t mind this draft, as there were no terribly confusing picks and the Titans filled most of their biggest needs. But the Titans did take some significant risks here. I especially liked the A.J. Brown pick, as he will make an instant impact in the receiving game. Jeffery Simmons may not play this season. But the Titans desperately needed a DT, and it’s not a terrible late 1st round choice. Nate Davis was a reach, but he does fill a need as well. They also added DB depth with the selection of Amani Hooker. They didn’t need any more OLBs even with Brian Orakpo retiring. They could’ve added a tight end instead with Delanie Walker getting older. But overall, this was still a solid draft that filled plenty of needs.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts had a boatload of big needs going in, so even with 10 draft picks, it would’ve been hard to fulfill all their needs. The Colts did fill a good number of them though. They got some front seven help, added WR Parris Campbell, and drafted a corner early. However, they reached quite a bit on some of these picks when it was not necessary. Indy had much better options in many of these scenarios. The failure to take advantage of these options definitely impacts their grade, but the filling of most needs boosts it.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars did fill most of their biggest needs, but their priorities were not quite set straight. Jawaan Taylor was a steal in Round 2. But did Jacksonville need a tackle? No. The Jags opted to take Taylor and wait on their other needs as opposed to grabbing a RB or S early. They didn’t really address the secondary at all, instead opting to snag top players available like Gardner Minshew and Dontavius Russell in the late rounds. At other times, they reached for picks. Some of these picks will pay off to an extent, but others just didn’t make sense.
Houston Texans
The Texans didn’t even have that many needs to fill. But they threw their needs aside on some of these picks. I think the Texans were selectively targeting a group of players they believed were underrated and had a future, and the Texans are entitled to their own opinions. They may love this draft class. But in my eyes, many of these picks were unnecessary reaches. For example, they took tackles Tytus Howard and Max Scharping when there were better options and they needed a guard more. In the meantime, they failed to add depth at wide receiver and linebacker. Many of these picks confused me. They weren’t a fit, a bargain, or a need filler, so that significantly bogs down their grade.
That’s all for this portion of my NFL Draft Report Cards. Next time, I’ll wrap this series up with the AFC West, where another two of the best draft classes in the league came from. Which AFC West teams came out on top? Stay tuned for my next post to find out.
Welcome to my Week 15 NFL Picks and Previews. Last week was a rough week, as I went 6-10, putting my overall record at 115-92-2 (117-93-2 including TNF and Saturday). I am still only ahead of 1 expert (Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports). This week, many teams have a chance to lock up playoff spots, but will all of the current contenders keep rolling this week, or will some fall behind as other teams rise? The Patriots take on the Steelers, and the Saints play the Panthers in Carolina, so there’s bound to be a couple teams knocked out of contention. Pittsburgh, who’s already just 7-5-1, faces not only New England but also the Saints on their remaining schedule. This could open the door for the Ravens and Browns in the AFC North. Keep reading to find out what I think, and feel free to comment with your thoughts.
Lock of the Week
The Redskins won’t be able to do much offensively with Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson as their QBs. The Jags may have struggled this season, but their defense is still easily top 10 in the NFL. This will open the door for young QB Cody Kessler and the Jaguars to put up a strong offensive game in a blowout win. The Redskins defense will lack motivation considering how badly the offense is doing, allowing Kessler to toss multiple TD and the Jacksonville run game to dominate.
Upset of the Week
Seattle has been strong at home this season with a 5-2 record. But on the road, they are a measly 3-3. We’ve seen what Niners QB Nick Mullens is capable of. Against an inexperienced Seahawks defense, I could see Mullens having a big game and leading San Francisco to pull off an upset. The Niners run game will struggle though, since RB Matt Breida is not 100%. Seattle should have a decent game offensively, but they won’t be able to compete with Mullens’ dominance, and QB Russell Wilson will struggle to connect with any WR who isn’t named Tyler Lockett. Mullens will prove that although he’s not the future of the Niners, he is a capable QB who can handle the weaker defenses in the league with ease.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night; Actual Score: 29-28 Chargers)
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Look for QB Philip Rivers and his receivers to lead the Chargers past the weak Kansas City defense in a close, overtime game. The Chiefs should also look very strong on offense, but they won’t be up to full speed without RB Kareem Hunt and WR Sammy Watkins. This and the defensive struggles will cost the Chiefs late in the game. |
| Saturday, 4:30 PM EST (Posted to Twitter Saturday; Actual Score: 29-22 Texans)
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Expect QB Sam Darnold and the Jets to put up a relatively strong game, even against the tough Houston defense. But QB Deshaun Watson and the Texans will get by as the Jets are still held under 20. The return of RB Dont’a Foreman will boost the Texans’ offensive performance in the road victory. |
| Saturday, 8:20 PM EST (Posted to Twitter Saturday; Actual Score: 17-16 Browns)
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Look for the Broncos to win at home in a low scoring game. The Browns will struggle against a tough Broncos defense in Denver despite a stronger offensive season. The strong defense as well as a big game from the Broncos RBs will lead the Broncos in their victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Led by the WR duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, expect the Vikings to secure a victory at home after losing 2 in a row. The Vikes defense will help their case as well, but the Dolphins will make this closer than you think. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Josh Allen to lead the Bills to a home victory, taking advantage of his running abilities with RB LeSean McCoy out and RB Chris Ivory banged-up. The Lions will look better offensively than they have been lately, but the Bills defense will prevent Detroit from providing a serious challenge. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Lamar Jackson will prove himself as Baltimore’s starting QB here, leading the Ravens to victory at home. The Ravens D will also have a strong game, holding Tampa under 15. The Bucs offense will lack the energy it usually has in the loss, making the Ravens D’s job easier. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to outperform their expectations against the young Oakland defense. Cincy’s run game will help, as Joe Mixon has 100+ yards rushing. But Driskel will still throw multiple TDs in the victory. Meanwhile, Oakland will be held to just 1 TD, as QB Derek Carr has a hard time relying on his WRs, instead relying on TE Jared Cook. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Marcus Mariota should be able to find his receivers despite lacking WR depth, as the Giants defense struggles to contain Mariota’s receivers without S Landon Collins (injured) and CB Eli Apple (traded). The Giants will fall short as the defense struggles and QB Eli Manning throws throws more picks than he throws TDs. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Colts offense should be alright against the young Dallas D. However, QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will continue to dominate against the weak Colts defense. Strong games by WR Amari Cooper and RB Ezekiel Elliott will lead them to victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for DE Khalil Mack and the Bears defense to dominate against a Packers team that lacks talent outside of QB Aaron Rodgers. This will allow QB Mitch Trubisky and the Bears to thrive, winning easily with the help of a strong game by their RB duo. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Matt Ryan and his receivers to dominate against the struggling Arizona defense. The Cardinals will also put up an underwhelming performance on offense, as QB Josh Rosen struggles to find his receivers without WR Christian Kirk, even against the weak Falcons D. The Cardinals will fall short after Atlanta’s much better offensive game. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
Check back closer to kickoff for a video preview! |
The Pats will get by in Pittsburgh, but QB Tom Brady will still struggle to connect with his receivers on the road. The Steelers offense will struggle as well and their run game won’t be able to do much of anything without RB James Conner. |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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QB Jared Goff and the Rams will look good against the depleted Eagles defense, even if they aren’t at their best. But it’s LA’s defense that will lead the Rams to victory. The Rams defense will shut down a Philly offense that can be explosive at times. |
| Monday, 8:15 PM EST
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The Saints should be able to get by on the road, even against Carolina. New Orleans will not be at full strength in their third straight road game, especially after losing their momentum in an all out embarrassing loss to Dallas. The Panthers defense will hold them back, but QB Drew Brees and WR Michael Thomas will lead the Saints to victory. QB Cam Newton and his offense will make it close in primetime, but it will not be enough. |
That’s all for this week. Stay tuned for more posts soon.
Welcome to my Week 10 NFL picks and previews. Last week I went 8-5, putting my overall record at 76-56-2 (76-57-2 including TNF Week 10). I’m still ahead of 2 ESPN experts and a CBS Sports expert. Don’t expect too many upsets this week. I see this as a week where contenders will begin to rise after underwhelming starts. This week will mark the beginning of the end of the surprise runs by teams like the Lions, Redskins, and Dolphins. Meanwhile, expected contenders that have been struggling so far like the Eagles, Jaguars, and Packers will begin to rise. There will be a couple upsets, but who will pull them? Comment with your thoughts below, and keep reading to see my upset picks.
Lock of the Week (SNF)
Look for QB Carson Wentz to start off the 2nd half of the season strong with a 3+ TD game. The Eagles don’t have that difficult of a schedule remaining, which could provide an opportunity for Wentz to make a run for MVP with a big 2nd half. Dallas should look alright on offense here, but Philly’s front seven will limit RB Ezekiel Elliott and overwhelm QB Dak Prescott. Philly will come out on top thanks to Wentz’s big game, as he connects with 7+ different receivers.
Upset of the Week
Look for the TE duo of Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron to help the Colts offensively. Jacksonville’s D will improve from the last couple of weeks, but I don’t see them holding Indy TD-less. The Jaguars offensive rebound will make up for it. With RB Leonard Fournette healthy, this run game will thrive. They suddenly have a lot of depth between Fournette, Carlos Hyde, and T.J. Yeldon. Look for QB Blake Bortles to improve as well. He should have minimal issues against a rebuilding Colts defense that’s regarded as one of the NFL’s worst. Indy will give up 30+ points in a loss here.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night; Actual Score: 52-21 Steelers)
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Carolina should struggle to contain QB Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers. But they will shut down a Le’Veon Bell-less Steelers run game. At this point, Bell will likely miss the whole season. The Panthers should also be strong on offense again, as QB Cam Newton and his receivers lead Carolina to victory up against a mediocre Steelers defense. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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With TE Rob Gronkowski out, the Pats offense will not be up to full speed. But expect a New England win anyway, as the Pats step it up on D against the young Titans offensive core. QB Marcus Mariota will struggle to find open men as the Patriots defense keeps him and his receivers pressured. The lack of WR depth will hurt the Titans in a loss. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Bills are down to their fourth string QB with Nathan Peterman struggling regressively and Derek Anderson and Josh Allen hurt. However, the Jets are also without their starter, Sam Darnold. Look for QB Josh McCown to succeed in filling in for Darnold, leading the Jets to a high scoring victory. The defense will slip a little against QB Matt Barkley and the Bills, but Buffalo will not be able to put up enough points with Allen and TE Charles Clay injured. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Saints find themselves with a lack of WR depth with Dez Bryant, Cameron Meredith, and Ted Ginn Jr. all on IR now. That being said, New Orleans will not be at their best offensively. But the Bengals shouldn’t look much better without WR A.J. Green. QB Drew Brees and his receivers should edge out a victory despite an underwhelming performance. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Matt Ryan and his receivers to put up another big game in Cleveland. The Browns will try to keep up, but their young core won’t quite do it. The Falcons D will continue to struggle and give up a good number of points to the Browns, but the offensive dominance will be enough for Atlanta. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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This will not be easy for Kansas City. QB Josh Rosen, RB David Johnson, and the Arizona offense should have a day against a banged-up Chiefs D. However, QB Patrick Mahomes II should keep up the good work and this offense should be enough for the Chiefs to keep rolling at home despite defensive struggles that may cost them when it matters. I’m honestly surprised they didn’t seek defensive help at the deadline. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should be able to take advantage of his deep core of receivers to lead Tampa to victory here. Also expect the Bucs D to surprise many with as they get in the way of QB Alex Smith and the Redskins offense. Smith will struggle to find his receivers with the Bucs pressuring him and WR Paul Richardson sidelined with an injury. The Buccaneers will play complimentary football and win triumphantly here. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Detroit’s offense will continue to miss WR Golden Tate as they struggle in Chicago. Look for another big game by the Bears defense here. QB Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago offense won’t be on their best either, but the shut down defense should be enough for the Bears to hold on for a victory. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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The Chargers D should look better than usual against a deep but struggling Oakland offense. Meanwhile, QB Philip Rivers and his receivers will put up another big game as Rivers throws multiple TD. The combination of these two things will cause the Raiders to fall short again at home. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST (OT)
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Look for another overtime thriller out of QB Aaron Rodgers and his receivers. Expect the Packers D to nearly cost them the game as they struggle more than they should against a Brock Osweiler-led Miami offense, but look for Rodgers to come up clutch and save the Packers once again. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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The dominance of the LA defense should continue with DE Dante Fowler Jr. on board. Expect them to hold Seattle TD-less here. The Rams offense won’t be at their best here, but QB Jared Goff and his WR trio will help lead the Rams to victory, supplemented by the shut-down D. The Seahawks will continue to miss WR Brandon Marshall as the Rams keep Seattle’s other receivers well-covered for majority of the game. |
| Monday, 8:15 PM EST
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Expect the struggles of QB Eli Manning to continue as he throws just 1 TD and multiple picks. RB Saquon Barkley will keep this close with a big game despite Manning’s struggles. But the Giants will fall short as the defense limits, but cannot stop QB Nick Mullens and the young 49ers offensive core. |
That’s all for this week. Stay tuned for my NFL midseason report later today, and stay tuned for my MLB off-season coverage throughout the rest of November.
Welcome to my NFL Week 8 Picks and Previews. Last week I went 8-6, putting my overall record at 61-44-2 (62-44-2 including Week 8 TNF). I’m hoping for at least 9 or 10 wins this week to get ahead of the ESPN and CBS Sports experts I am trying to compete with. I am ahead of just 1 expert from each website. This week, expect a lot of close, exciting games. Even Vegas is predicting this, as many of their NFL point spreads this week are under 4. But with lots of close games comes lots of surprises. Who will pull a shocking upset? Who will stand strong and win as expected? Read below to find out what I think.
Lock of the Week (MNF)
Stay tuned for a potential video preview closer to the game!
There are not many locks this week, but the Patriots should be able to take down the QB Josh Allen-less Bills with ease. It doesn’t matter if it’s in Buffalo, and it doesn’t matter that it’s Monday Night Football. Expect QB Tom Brady and the Pats to dominate here, taking an early lead and running with it. The Patriots defense isn’t going to go from shaky to shut down in a week, but it should hold a struggling, banged-up Bills offense to 20 or less points. One thing this offense does have on the New England is a strong run game. New England has continued to struggle against strong run games this year. But I don’t expect much else from the Bills offense, and the Pats should end up winning by 10 or more.
Upset of the Week
This would be a shocker given Kansas City’s performance in Denver and Denver’s tendency to perform far better at home. But it’s hard to beat the same team twice, especially when they are riding the momentum of a 45-10 victory including a spectacular defensive game. I understand that it was the Cardinals, but momentum is momentum. Thanks to this momentum, I think Denver’s D will do surprisingly well in stopping Kansas City’s dominant offense. This all-offense Chiefs team will struggle against a Broncos offense that has improved from 2017. TE Travis Kelce will catch Kansas City’s lone TD as the rest of the offense is overwhelmed by the Denver D in an upsetting loss.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night)
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Expect a low scoring game as the Texans shut down defense overwhelms QB Brock Osweiler and the young Miami pass offense. Expect the Dolphins backfield to struggle as well, with Houston’s defense holding them under 50 yards combined. I don’t see the Texans dominating on offense, but it will be enough thanks to a strong game by WR DeAndre Hopkins and the front seven’s performance. |
| Sunday, 9:30 AM EST (Posted to Twitter before the game)
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I don’t think Jacksonville’s defense will look as sharp as usual in London, especially after 4 Jaguars defenders were arrested last night. But they will improve from the surprising struggles of the last couple weeks. Look for QB Blake Bortles to regroup and rebound after being replaced last week, leading the Jags to a surprising London victory. But Philly should keep it close with strong run defense against the troubled Jags run game. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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In this battle of two of the league’s rising defenses, don’t expect much from either young QB. QB Mitch Trubisky and his receivers will put up a dud against New York’s amazing secondary. But the Jets offense won’t be looking any better with RB Bilal Powell and most of their best receivers hurt. Chicago’s defense should come up clutch, holding the Jets under 10 and saving Chicago the game. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Browns tied the Steelers in Cleveland, but don’t expect as close a game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers will make up for RB Le’Veon Bell’s continued absence with a dominant day by WRs Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Pittsburgh’s D should also appear surprisingly better, holding the Browns young offense under 20. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Jameis Winston and his TE duo to lead Tampa to victory against a Bengals defense left with holes after losses in free agency. QB Andy Dalton and his receivers should make this close, but the defensive problems will begin to stab them in the back. The Bucs will win on the road thanks to another big day on offense. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Expect a strong game out of QB Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. But the Ravens versatile defense should slow them down significantly. However, Baltimore’s receivers will still struggle to keep up as Newton’s multi-TD game is enough to lead Carolina to victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I know most people would call me crazy for expecting 34 points out of the Giants. But this is a team that beat the 5-3 Houston Texans. I don’t think the G-Men are really as bad as they seem. Even the GM has given up. But I think the Giants will turn it around and win a few games before the season ends. They have a talented, star-studded offense. All they need is a QB who can manage that. If QB Eli Manning cannot, maybe another QB on the roster is the answer. WR Odell Beckham Jr. will be kept busy against CB Josh Norman, but you can expect strong games out of RB Saquon Barkley and New York’s other offensive weapons. The Redskins will make this close with a clutch offensive performance, but I have them falling just short. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for Matt Patricia’s Lions to win another one on home turf as they begin to look like legitimate contenders. The Seahawks should be able to overwhelm the Lions D, one of Detroit’s biggest flaws this year. But QB Matthew Stafford’s 3 TD game should be enough for a Lions home victory. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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The Colts should make this close with a surprisingly strong offensive performance led by QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton. They will take advantage of a weak, rebuilding Raiders D. But expect Oakland to shine on offense against Indy, who has one of the worst defenses in the league. It doesn’t matter if WR Amari Cooper is here or not. The Raiders will miss Cooper and injured RB Marshawn Lynch, but should still manage to win. If they can beat the Browns in Oakland, they can do the same to Indy. |
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST |
I was tempted to pick the Packers in an upset as the Rams offense struggles without injured WR Cooper Kupp. But this versatile Rams defense is just too good to allow 20+ points to a Packers offense that lacks WR depth despite an amazing QB in Aaron Rodgers. Defense will win the Rams this game as they remain undefeated. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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Arizona’s only win so far this year was in San Francisco. I think they can beat the QB Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers again in Arizona. They will be led by strong games out of young QB Josh Rosen and RB David Johnson. The Niners should look decent on offense and make this close. But I think the Cardinals will hold on on home turf. |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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I think Minnesota’s offense will be slowed by a young Saints D that just added CB Eli Apple. But the Vikings defense should look even better, holding the Saints under 20 points and to just 1 TD. This shut down defensive performance should lead the Vikes to victory. |
That’s all for my picks and previews this week. Stay tuned for more NFL posts soon, including my midseason report next week.
Welcome to my Week 5 NFL picks and previews. Last week I went 10-5, placing my overall record at 37-24-2 (38-24-2 including Week 5 TNF). I’m ahead of 9 of ESPN’s 10 experts and 3 of CBS Sports’ 8 experts.
There are a lot of intriguing match-ups this week. The Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals, two of the league’s biggest surprises thus far take each other on. The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles meet in an NFC Championship rematch. The Kansas City Chiefs’ powerful offense may have met their match in the Jags defense. Who will win in these close match-ups? Whoever wins, I would expect a lot of surprises. Keep reading to find out who I have winning this week.
Lock of the Week (TNF: Posted to Twitter Thursday Night; Actual Score: 38-24 Patriots)
The Colts will be without RB Marlon Mack, TE Jack Doyle, and most importantly, star WR T.Y. Hilton. With the offense banged-up, expect QB Andrew Luck to struggle in finding open receivers. Don’t expect a big game from the Colts running backs either. Meanwhile, I think the Colts defense (which is also banged-up) will fail to contain QB Tom Brady and his receivers. I could see the Pats blowing out and possibly even shutting out the injury-riddled Colts.
Upset of the Week
Coming out of the bye, the Panthers will still be without their top receiving target in TE Greg Olsen. I think they will start to miss him this week as the Giants secondary keeps Carolina’s remaining receivers well covered. Meanwhile, I don’t expect a huge game out of RB Christian McCaffrey against an above average Giants defensive front. The Giants will pull the upset thanks to a strong passing game and improved defense.
The Other Games
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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These teams might be the two biggest pleasant surprises of the season so far. This week, we’ll likely see which is here to contend, and which is pretending. I think the Bengals will look like legitimate contenders in this game. The defense will see improvement with LB Vontaze Burfict back from his suspension. Meanwhile, QB Andy Dalton will find plenty of open men, even without TE Tyler Eifert. However, Miami will make it close as WR Kenny Stills and rookie TE Mike Gesicki step it up. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Josh Allen to lead Buffalo’s offense to a close game against an inconsistent Titans D. Allen has done well in these last couple games. However, I think the Titans will run away with the victory as the offense finds a way, led by the duo of QB Marcus Mariota and WR Corey Davis. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Broncos defense has been among the NFL’s best for a long time, and the Jets young defense is emerging as well. Look for both defenses to thrive in a low scoring game. The Denver secondary will do an especially good job at containing QB Sam Darnold and his receivers. I don’t expect the Broncos to look amazing on offense, but they should edge out a victory in New York. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I think Pittsburgh will look alright on offense despite missing RB Le’Veon Bell. But the Falcons WR trio will be too much for the Steelers secondary. The Steelers have never been more than mediocre on defense, and it will cost them here. Expect Atlanta’s RB duo to thrive with RB Devonta Freeman back and QB Matt Ryan to find open receivers for TDs. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for Cleveland’s defense to step it up, leading Cleveland to a home victory. QB Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense shouldn’t do especially well against a strong Ravens secondary. But, look for the Browns’ underrated, young defense to cause QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens receivers to struggle. That will be enough for the Browns to pull out a win. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I understand the Chiefs are undefeated and their offense looks unstoppable. But they haven’t seen a defense like Jacksonville’s. I also think the Jaguars will take advantage of the all offense, no defense Chiefs and put together a strong offensive game of their own. The Chiefs have a very tough schedule ahead, and this could be the start of a stretch that bring the Chiefs from unbeatable to a borderline playoff contender. The Jags seem like the team to finally put an end to Kansas City’s offensive dominance and undefeated season. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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A lot of people see this as a lock in Green Bay’s favor, but this will not be easy. We’ve seen what Detroit’s offense is capable of at its best, and Green Bay will be without WRs Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. QB Aaron Rodgers is not at full health either. Look for the Lions offense to get out to an early lead. But I think QB Aaron Rodgers will have another clutch game, and Rodgers alonMelg with the rising young talent surrounding him will lead the team to a comeback victory. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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Look for RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to make an impact against the Mack-less Raiders run defense. I also expect QB Philip Rivers and his receivers to have a successful game. I think this Chargers offense can be all-around dominant against Oakland’s subpar defense. QB Derek Carr will make this close when he tosses 3 TD of his own, but it won’t be enough in this offensive shootout. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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These teams have two of the best defenses in the NFC, so don’t expect too much scoring. The Vikings passing game will be somewhat successful in Philly, but you can’t count on the run game with RB Dalvin Cook battling a hamstring injury. I think QB Carson Wentz will manage to find a way at home, even going up against the lights out Vikes defense. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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QB Josh Rosen led the Cardinals to their closest game thus far last week, and I truly think they can win this one over the Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers. But I’m not calling a blowout for an 0-4 team. I think the 49ers versatile offense will find a way to keep this close. However, led by RB David Johnson, look for Arizona to edge out a victory. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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Expect QB Jared Goff and his offense to dominate in Seattle. I think they can easily handle this rebuilding Seahawks defense. Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense will struggle against a Rams D that has emerged as one of the NFC’s best. I think QB Russell WIlson and the Seahawks run game will be especially overwhelmed by the Rams powerful front seven, and the shut down defense will secure an LA victory. |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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I think QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense will continue to struggle here, especially since they are facing one of the league’s top defenses. Even star RB Ezekiel Elliott could struggle going up against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and the dominant Texans defensive front. Houston will secure the victory after a decent offensive performance. |
| Monday, 8:15 PM EST
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I think the Saints will get it done in primetime, boosted by the return of RB Mark Ingram from his four game suspension. Look for the Redskins to make it close against a mediocre Saints D, but I don’t think Washington will be able to finish the job in New Orleans. |
That’s all for today’s picks and previews. Feel free to comment with your thoughts on any of the games.
Welcome to my Week 4 NFL picks and previews. It was a rough week for me last week, as I finished 6-10. But luckily, I’m still 27-19-2 (28-19-2 including TNF Week 4) due to my strong week in Week 2. I’m still ahead of 9 of ESPN’s 10 experts, and half of CBS Sports’ 8 experts. There have been a lot of surprises in the NFL so far this year. Unexpected contenders have emerged, and what were perceived as some of the NFL’s best teams are struggling to keep up. I definitely think this week will set some things straight. Some of the expected contenders will start to surpass the surprise teams. The question is, which surprise teams come down to earth first? Keep reading to find out what I think.
Lock of the Week
QB Sam Darnold and the Jets offense looked good in the first couple weeks. But this offense is still very young and has things to learn. I expect this dominant Jaguars defense to tear apart New York’s offensive game plan. The pressure of Sacksonville will get to Darnold, which will mess up the entire offensive scheme for the Jets. The Jaguars offense doesn’t have to have a field day to win a game, and they’ve made that very clear. RB Leonard Fournette will likely return this week. They had been fine without him, at home against the Patriots! Given that, this home game against the Jets with Fournette back should be a clinic in Jacksonville’s favor.
Upset of the Week
QB Sam Bradford had clearly declined, and after two weeks, all Cardinals fans knew Bradford wasn’t the answer. But Steve Wilks has finally put QB Josh Rosen in as the starter! Rosen was my favorite QB of this year’s draft, and I expect him to completely turn around the Cardinals offense this week. I don’t expect this kind of consistency throughout the year in 2018. But this will give us a glimpse at what the Cardinals invested in down the road, kind of like what the Jets received from QB Sam Darnold in his first game. I think Rosen can handle the rebuilding Seattle defense on his home turf. Look for Arizona’s tight ends to have an especially strong game as well. Meanwhile, the Seattle defense will struggle to contain Rosen and RB David Johnson. Their offense will see slight improvement with WR Doug Baldwin likely to return, but nothing significant as Arizona pulls off the upset at home.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted on Twitter Thursday Night, Actual Score: 38-31 Rams)
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Don’t expect an especially strong game from WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. This Rams secondary is one of the league’s best. However, the ground game will lead the way for the Vikes and make this close. Look for QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley to lead the Rams to victory with the help of strong defense. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for Miami’s receivers to thrive against a New England secondary that lacks a #2 corner. #1 CB Stephon Gilmore will shut down WR DeVante Parker though. However, this Dolphins run game is not the greatest, and if the Pats can shut them down, there is hope for the New England D. I don’t think the Pats suck. Their last two Super Bowl-winning seasons started with 2 wins and 2 losses. Plus, they lost to a coach who knows them really well and their toughest opponent. I think QB Tom Brady will find open men to lead New England to victory here. This victory that will begin a long winning streak for the Pats. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Packers are a pass-first offense, and I don’t think the Bills will be able to keep them under control without CB Vontae Davis. I don’t see this as a blowout though. QB Josh Allen and the Bills offense will make it close. But Green Bay will win at home by a comfortable margin, led by a dominant passing game. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Matt Ryan and his newfound WR duo to overwhelm the Bengals secondary and score multiple TDs. I don’t think the Bengals will be as strong on offense here without RB Joe Mixon. They will lose this one thanks to surprisingly strong defense by Atlanta. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I think the Texans will do alright against the weak Colts defense in an effort for their first win. But depth has been a problem for this team from the start, and that will hinder their success. The Colts will give the Texans a scare. This will be thanks to a pretty good week by QB Andrew Luck and his offense, even against the fierce Houston D. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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WR Rishard Matthews was released by the Titans this week. Now, the Titans lack a healthy QB and lack WR depth. That will cause the offense regressive struggles. The Eagles defense will also do their job in shutting down Tennessee’s RB duo. QB Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense will cruise to victory, especially if WR Alshon Jeffery plays. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Expect an offensive shootout here. Both these defenses are some of the league’s worst, and I think both these offenses are underrated. The Cowboys pass defense will struggle excessively against the LIons strong WR corps. However, I think QB Dak Prescott will finally turn it around against the struggling Detroit D. This will lead them to a home win. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I think the Bucs will start QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in this game. Look for the Fitzmagic to continue, but will it be enough for the Bucs in Chicago? I’m concerned that Tampa’s secondary will blow it for them against QB Mitch Trubisky and the Bears underrated WR corps. I also feel that the Bucs young run game will struggle against Khalil Mack and the Bears run defense. These two things will lead Chicago to victory at home. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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QB Baker Mayfield will lead the Browns to another strong offensive game here against a declining Raiders D. But you cannot sleep on these Raiders receivers. Against a young Cleveland defense, expect QB Derek Carr and the Raiders deep WR corps to dominate. I also expect a strong game from Oakland’s running backs that assist Carr in an offensive shootout victory. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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The 49ers will miss QB Jimmy Garoppolo here. QB C.J. Beathard will do alright in LA, but he will be nowhere near Garoppolo’s level. I don’t see him finishing the job for the Niners. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense will have a strong day against the 49ers young D. QB Philip Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, and the strong offense will lead LA to victory. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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QB Eli Manning and his receivers should do alright against a Saints defense that has significantly declined since last year. But they will miss TE Evan Engram. Meanwhile, RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas will have dominant games that lead the Saints to victory despite an underwhelming game by QB Drew Brees. |
| SNF (Sunday, 8:20 PM EST)
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The Steelers may be declining without RB Le’Veon Bell, but they are still an average team that can win some games without him. I think the Steelers defense will be able to shut down the Ravens attack. Plus, QB Ben Roethlisberger will find plenty of weapons to lead Pittsburgh to victory, even without Bell. |
| MNF (Monday, 8:15 PM EST) (OT)
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This will be a very close game. QB Patrick Mahomes II will lead a strong Chiefs offense to a big game. But the Chiefs are all offense, no defense, and they will struggle to contain Denver’s receivers. I could see this going to overtime, but I don’t see the Chiefs winning with their run game struggling against the unstoppable Denver front seven. |
That’s all for my Week 4 picks and previews. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.
Welcome to my Week 2 NFL picks. Last week, I went 9-6-1, putting me ahead of 4 of ESPN’s 10 pick’em experts, and 2 of CBS Sports’ 8 pick’em experts. This off-season, many quarterbacks changed teams as usual. Patrick Mahomes II was named Kansas City’s starter as Alex Smith was traded from the Chiefs to the Redskins. Kirk Cousins, formerly of the Redskins signed with the Vikings. Case Keenum, Minnesota’s 2017 starter, is now starting in Denver.
I thought that Keenum and Cousins would thrive with their new teams, while Smith struggles without his offensive weapons and the Chiefs offense struggles without Smith. But all four of those teams succeeded thanks to strong offense in Week 1. Mahomes just made the Chiefs offense look better, and the Redskins just might be better off with Smith than they were with Cousins. Does this have to do with the QB carousel, or is it what surrounds these quarterbacks that leads them to thrive? Either way, the Chiefs and Redskins could be two surprise teams to watch out for, and the Vikes and Broncos look to stay elite. Will all four win again this week? Read my picks below to find out what I think.
Lock of the Week (MNF)
I thought the Seahawks offense would struggle last week, but things actually turned out alright for them despite a loss. However, they will be without WR Doug Baldwin this week, so don’t be surprised by a dud out of Seattle’s offense. Plus, the Bears defense looks much better with everyone healthy and Khalil Mack on board. Expect a strong week by QB Mitch Trubisky as well as the Bears running backs. However, it will be Mack and the Bears D that holds Seattle under 10 and leads the Bears to victory.
Upset of the Week
I learned one major lesson about the Chiefs in Week 1: QB Patrick Mahomes is not a bust, and he is capable of becoming an elite NFL starter this year. Expect him to lead a talented Chiefs offense to victory despite some iffy defense by Kansas City. The Steelers offense will begin to miss RB Le’Veon Bell, and their mediocre defense won’t be enough to stop the Chiefs.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted on Twitter on Thursday Night; Actual Score: 34-23 Bengals)
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I don’t expect more than 30 total points in this game. Both these defenses are arguably Top 10 in the league. They should be successful in pressuring each other’s quarterbacks and shutting down each other’s running backs. But the Bengals will edge out the victory at home thanks to a strong game by WR A.J. Green. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Jets strong defense and a good day by rookie QB Sam Darnold led the Jets to victory in Detroit. Expect more of the same in Miami, and watch for an especially strong game out of New York’s secondary. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I think QB Josh Allen will lead the Bills to a closer game than they had last week. But I see the Chargers having a better offensive day and winning this one. They will rebound from their struggles against Kansas City last week. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for Saints QB Drew Brees to excel against a young Browns defense. But you should expect the Browns to make this a close offensive shootout, even without WR Josh Gordon. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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With TE Delanie Walker on IR, I don’t expect a very strong game by the Titans offense, especially against the elite Houston D. I think the Texans will be able to squeeze by despite a banged up wide receiver group. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I do expect QB Andrew Luck to look good in his second game back. However, expect the Colts weak defense to give up 30+ points again in a loss. They will especially struggle at containing the Redskins receivers. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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This is a battle of two capable backup QBs and two strong defensive fronts. With QB Carson Wentz and WR Alshon Jeffery hurt, I don’t think the Philly offense will be able to handle this strong Bucs D. The strong defense will lead Tampa to victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST (OT)
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Expect the Packers to pull off another last minute comeback here, this one extending into overtime. It just shows how clutch QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense are. I do expect strong games by the Vikings receivers that keep this close and give the Vikings an early lead. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for a strong game out of WR Julio Jones and the rest of Atlanta’s receivers against a young Carolina secondary. This will help lead Atlanta to victory as the Panthers receivers struggle. However, Carolina’s strong run game will lead the way and make this close. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST (OT)
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Expect both teams to rebound from offensive struggles last week. The Lions have a veteran QB and strong receiver group that may very well be the highlight of this team. But I think QB Jimmy Garoppolo and the young 49ers offense will look dominant against a below average Lions D. The 49ers will edge out an overtime victory at home. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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I don’t expect the Rams to have a field day here. The Cardinals defense is much improved from last season. But the Rams will edge out a victory as their own defense holds QB Sam Bradford and his receivers below 20 points. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
Stay tuned for a game preview before the game begins!
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Expect a lot of passing, as this will be a close game and running backs on both sides are injured. I think the Jaguars will struggle to find ways to score without RB Leonard Fournette, but the Jags defense will lead them to victory. As a fan, I really want to see TE Rob Gronkowski prove CB Jalen Ramsey wrong and lead the Pats to victory, and I think he will prove Ramsey wrong. But as an unbiased reporter, I see this as one of the toughest games on New England’s schedule, and I can’t see them winning with WR Julian Edelman suspended and multiple RBs banged up. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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Expect the Raiders to struggle at scoring against the stellar Broncos defense. Strong offensive line play by Oakland will be key to protect QB Derek Carr, and I expect to see that at the very least. But I think Denver’s offense will repeat what they had going last week to pull off another home victory. |
| Sunday, 8:30 PM EST
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I think this is going to be an offensive shootout. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will find creative ways to score at home and RB Ezekiel Elliott will have a strong game. Meanwhile, I think the Giants will take an early lead against a young Cowboys D. But I see Dallas pulling away with a victory in the end thanks to a choke by the New York defense. |
That’s all for this week’s NFL picks and previews. Stay tuned for more NFL articles coming soon.
The match-up is set. The Patriots and Eagles will face off in Super Bowl LII. Today I will address how they got there, and give you your first look at the match-up.
But first here is the official schedule for my Super Bowl LII Preview. This will be part of each Preview article and will include links to the articles that are finished.
Monday, Jan. 29: Championship Weekend Recap and Super Bowl LII First Look
Tuesday, Jan. 30: The Case for the Patriots: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game
Wednesday, Jan. 31: The Case for the Eagles: How They Can Win, Keys to the Game
Thursday, Feb. 1: Super Bowl Fast Facts and Their Significance
Friday, Feb. 2: Super Bowl LII: The Final Pick and Projected Stats
Saturday, Feb. 3: Super Bowl LII Video Preview and iMovie Trailer
Sunday, Feb. 4: Watch the big game and stay tuned for my Recap!
Patriots
The Pats won in comeback fashion again, this time against the Jacksonville Jaguars, 24-20. Early on, Blake Bortles, Leonard Fournette, Corey Grant, and the rest of the Jaguars offense dominated, taking a 14-3 lead and challenging the Pats for their chance at making it to their 10th Super Bowl, and their 8th with Tom Brady. The Pats were unable to stop this powerful Jags offense for most of the 1st half, although they did narrow Jacksonville’s lead with a TD before the half, making it 14-10. The Jaguars’ powerful pass rush also got on Tom Brady’s nerves in this half.
By halftime, Pats fans were getting worried, and some (but not me) gave up hope. But the 2nd half brought a turn-around for the Patriots. In the 3rd quarter, we began to see a better defensive performance by New England, as they held Jacksonville to just a measly 3 points in that quarter. Lawrence Guy was able to sack Bortles as he led the Pats defense to begin to get pressure on him. The Jags scored another field goal to begin the 4th and led 20-10.
But better defense set the Pats offense up to come back in the 4th quarter. Despite TE Rob Gronkowski being ruled out with a concussion, the Pats came back, led by Brady, Danny Amendola (who scored both 4th quarter TDs) and Brandin Cooks. The Pats came out of nowhere after being down by 10, scoring 14 unanswered points to win the game and advance to the Super Bowl. But how will they fare against the Eagles, who obliterated the Vikings?
Eagles
The Vikings got off to a fast start as Case Keenum connected with TE Kyle Rudolph for a touchdown. But after that, Nick Foles broke out, leading the Eagles offense to blow away an otherwise unstoppable Vikings defense. He somehow tossed 3 TDs and 352 yards against the typically dominant Vikings D. I also don’t know how this defense gave up 38 points.
Not only did Foles do well, but his top four receivers (Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor) all had over 50 yards receiving, combining for 306 of Philly’s receiving yards and all 3 receiving TDs. The combination of end zone back LeGarrette Blount and lead running back Jay Ajayi also had a big game compared to recent performances.
After that win, the Eagles truly do deserve to fight for that Lombardi Trophy in Minneapolis, although it would have been cool to see Minnesota win it at home, or be stopped by the Patriots dynasty. But will the Eagles put up the same numbers against New England, who has far more experience in the Super Bowl? Many of New England’s players don’t even know what it is like not making the AFC Championship game.
With TE Rob Gronkowski on the practice field as of Saturday the 27th, it’s a good sign that Gronk will be able to clear the concussion protocol and play by Sunday’s big game. Gronk’s status will help determine New England’s offensive schemes against an Eagles defense that can be tricky at times.
Either way, especially with T Marcus Cannon injured, DT Fletcher Cox and the Eagles’ defensive line could pressure QB Tom Brady and hit him a few times. But I do think Brady should be able to find his receivers against the younger, but still powerful Eagles secondary. With or without him, Gronk will have to get past Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins among others as they will likely keep the star tight end double covered.
Brady will have to mix it up a little, not only passing to Gronk, and dependable passing backs James White and Rex Burkhead, but also to his wide receivers who helped him win with Gronk and Burkhead out late into last week’s game. Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, and/or Chris Hogan could have a big game here. But will we see the Eagles look like their inconsistent selves again, or will we see QB Nick Foles and the Eagles offense pick up where they left off?
If they can, they will significantly challenge the Patriots, whose pass rush has struggled to pressure the QB at times this season. However, it has gotten better since LB James Harrison joined the Patriots. Not only has he himself made an impact, but he’s also made an impact on other players’ performances, serving as a veteran influence. The Pats sacked Jags QB Blake Bortles twice last week. One was by Harrison, and the other by DT Lawrence Guy. However, the Eagles give Foles better protection than Bortles gets with their strong offensive line.
This also helps running backs, who the Pats have struggled even more against. In their Week 7 win against Atlanta, their big flaw was giving up big plays to Devonta Freeman. It cost them in Week 1 against Kareem Hunt. Can RB Jay Ajayi be next? Will end zone threat Blount Force Trauma get revenge on his former team? Or will it be younger RBs like Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood who thrive?
The good news is, despite their front seven woes, they have maintained a strong secondary all season long, and don’t be surprised if they annoy Foles’ receivers and pick Foles off a couple times. I do think Foles will continue to thrive though, finding his receivers for most of the game, but making brutal mistakes against this strong secondary that cause the Eagles offense to trail a little behind the “Brady Bunch.”
Who will win Super Bowl LII? What is the game plan for each team? What Super Bowl and season-long stats will burden, encourage and/or influence each team? Find out this week as I release more articles each day.
Welcome to my Divisional Round Picks. In the Wild Card Round, I went 3-1. Who will come out on top this week in order to fight for Super Bowl qualification next week? Read below and comment with your thoughts.
(6) Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (1)
Saturday: 4:35 PM EST on NBC
Eagles, 37, Falcons, 30
Even with QB Carson Wentz injured, I see Philly winning this one. The Falcons offense is pretty good, but even with Nick Foles at QB, it’s hard to top the Eagles offense. The Falcons defensive front could get on Foles’ nerves, but Foles and the Philly offense will overcome it. However, Foles has not been great under pressure, unlike Wentz. But the tough Eagles defense will have Falcons QB Matt Ryan under a lot of pressure himself, and he will struggle under pressure, failing to repeat last year’s deep playoff run.
(5) Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (1)
Saturday: 8:15 PM EST on CBS
Patriots, 31, Titans, 23
QB Tom Brady will lead the Pats to victory here with the help of TE Rob Gronkowski and receivers Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola, who will dominate against the young Titans secondary. Gronk will seem unbeatable to this young but strong Tennessee defense. In his first game against the Pats since his rookie year, QB Marcus Mariota will also have a tough time, especially against the strong Pats secondary. He will toss just 1 TD.
However, RB Derrick Henry will get on New England’s nerves in his first game against them. This speedy running back is just too much for the Pats front seven, even with veteran LB James Harrison. I do see New England coming out on top in the end after offensive dominance and excellent coverage of Titans QB Marcus Mariota.
(3) Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2)
Sunday: 1:05 PM EST on CBS
Jaguars, 27, Steelers, 23
In my opinion, Jacksonville will be the only road team that wins this week. Although QB Blake Bortles might have a difficult time against the Steelers D, the Jaguars secondary was able to pick off QB Ben Roethlisberger 5 times last time these two franchises played. Plus, between his calf and his illness, WR Antonio Brown will not be 100% for this game whether he plays or not.
Big Ben will experience deja vu against a dominant Jags defense without his favorite target. The Jags young group of receivers will also thrive as long as Bortles can get the ball to them, which I think will happen for at least parts of the game. Jags win in a close thriller.
(4) New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (2)
Sunday: 4:40 PM EST on FOX
Vikings, 37, Saints, 33
In a high scoring rematch of the 2017 season’s first Monday Night game, the Vikes will come out on top, led by rising QB Case Keenum and young receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. WR Brandon Coleman is out for the Saints as well as G Andrus Peat, causing the Saints offense to be slightly less powerful than usual. Only slightly though. The Saints defense will still be great as well, but the Vikings dominant receivers will intimidate the young secondary and the Saints will allow Keenum to toss multiple TDs as Minnesota wins.
That’s all for my picks this week. Stay tuned for a more in-depth Patriots-Titans preview coming soon.
Boston Sports Mania 