Football season is quickly approaching, and teams have began to prepare for the upcoming year. The AFC could be a very competitive conference, but which teams have enough talent to be playoff contenders? My cousin Michael Philipkosky and I broke it all down in this episode of his podcast, the Master Plan.
The NFL off-season has been one of the craziest ever. Tom Brady left Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Instead he went to Tampa, building his own offense. This caused the biggest off-season QB carousel in a long time. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic forced the NFL Draft virtual and canceled the NFL preseason. But despite the pandemic and all the unusual events, football is coming back. With or without fans attending the game, this NFL season will go on, and so will my weekly NFL pick’em posts. Each week, I’ll have my NFL picks on this website as well as some fantasy content on my fantasy football Instagram account, @bsmfantasyfootball. I think this could be one of the most competitive seasons in a while, and that will mean a lot of close games. Keep reading to see my predictions of them all. I’ll say one thing, we could see multiple games go to overtime this week alone.
As I said, there should be a lot of close games this week. This is not one of them. I expect the Bills to have a lot of success running the ball. The combo of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and running QB Josh Allen will just be too much for a Jets front seven that will be without LB C.J. Mosley. Allen will also rely on his new star WR Stefon Diggs in this one. QB Sam Darnold will struggle, as a strong Bills defense shuts down his banged up arsenal of weapons.
I think the 49ers are the better team here. But WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are recovering from injuries, leaving QB Jimmy Garoppolo with solely star TE George Kittle to rely on. The Cardinals defense will focus in on Kittle, making it difficult for Garoppolo’s offense to function. QB Kyler Murray won’t be that much better against a strong San Francisco D. But with WR DeAndre Hopkins in the mix, I think Arizona will put up enough points to pull off the upset this time around. The Niners will have a chance at revenge later this season after Garoppolo’s receivers heal up.
Thursday Night Football | I expect the Chiefs to come out on top in the end here. QB Patrick Mahomes’ offense is a dominant force and I doubt this weakening Texans D will be able to keep up. However, the Texans will make it close, as the duo of WR Brandin Cooks and WR Will Fuller should be able to outplay Kansas City’s secondary. I think they might even force OT. |
 | I think QB Cam Newton will rely on pass catching RB James White and slot WR Julian Edelman to beat out an improved, but still below average Dolphins defense. On the other hand, WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki are no match for Stephon Gilmore and Devin McCourty. |
 | The Browns have a good front seven, but it won’t be enough to stop dual threat QB Lamar Jackson. I expect Kevin Stefanski to completely modify the Browns offense and that will allow them to make this competitive. However, in Baltimore I see them falling short. |
 | QB Gardner Minshew II is lacking surroundings. I expect WR D.J. Chark to have a good game thanks to their chemistry, but it’ll be tough against this improved Colts D. The Colts also have an improved run game behind an elite o-line that should dominate against a crumbling Jaguars defense. |
 | The Raiders do have an improving offense centered around RB Josh Jacobs and TE Darren Waller, and they will make it close against an unproven Panthers defense. But I expect RB Christian McCaffrey to run all over the Raiders D in this one. |
 | Washington’s defense is looking better than it has in a while, with a front seven led by rookie Chase Young and veteran Ryan Kerrigan, plus a secondary that includes CB Kendall Fuller and S Landon Collins. They will hold the Eagles to just 1 TD, but fall short due to anemic offense. |
 | The Vikings D is looking strong after adding DE Yannick Ngakoue, so I expect a strong Week 1 performance against Green Bay. RB Dalvin Cook will lead Minnesota to victory, but it will be close with natural slot WRs Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson rotating outside. |
 | The Lions won’t put up too many points as I expect the Bears D to improve upon last year. But the Bears QB troubles will cause them to fall short. I think QB Mitch Trubisky will have some success with RB Tarik Cohen and WR Allen Robinson, but be too inconsistent to finish the job. I have Detroit taking it in OT. |
 | This is definitely going to be a close one. But on the road, I have the Seahawks falling short. QB Matt Ryan will lean on his strong WR duo and RB Todd Gurley to lead Atlanta to victory in overtime. |
 | The Chargers secondary is looking strong, but the loss of S Derwin James hurts. I think QB Joe Burrow will capitalize on his connection with WR Tyler Boyd and find ways to beat out this strong Chargers D, pulling off the upset in his debut. The Chargers offense will show flashes of a strong performance but struggle overall with Tyrod Taylor at QB. |
 | QBs Tom Brady and Drew Brees face off twice this year. In this one, I’m expecting the Saints to squeeze by for a victory in a back and forth offensive shootout. WRs Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin will all get the chance to stand out here. |
Sunday Night Football | I’m expecting an OT thriller in the first edition of SNF this year. QB Jared Goff will be under center in a pass heavy offense that outplays the Cowboys secondary and makes this one close. But QB Dak Prescott will rely on what’s arguably the best WR trio in the league alongside RB Ezekiel Elliott as he leads the Cowboys to last minute victory. |
Monday Night Football | This could be tough for the Giants as Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the league. But the Giants defense has also improved, and I expect them to slow down RB James Conner and make things difficult for QB Ben Roethlisberger in his return. This could go either way, but I have New York pulling off an upset in overtime. |
Monday Night Football | I think the Broncos will shut down QB Ryan Tannehill and make it hard for the Titans offense to put up much. But RB Derrick Henry will just be too much for Denver, allowing the Titans to stay in this game. Denver’s offense will take time to click after all the new additions, but I think RB Melvin Gordon and rookie WR Jerry Jeudy will make a difference as the Broncos narrowly get by here. |
Which teams do you have winning this week? Comment with your thoughts.
Welcome to Part 7 of my NFL Draft Report Cards. Last week, I reviewed the AFC North, where the Browns and Ravens boasted a couple of the best draft classes in the entire league. The AFC South doesn’t have any teams that dominated to this extent. In fact, one team struggled more than any other team in the entire AFC. Keep reading to see my grade for each pick as well as my final grades. As I post more articles, I will also include links to the rest of my draft grades.
AFC West
 Tennessee Titans
I didn’t mind this draft, as there were no terribly confusing picks and the Titans filled most of their biggest needs.  But the Titans did take some significant risks here.  I especially liked the A.J. Brown pick, as he will make an instant impact in the receiving game.  Jeffery Simmons may not play this season. But the Titans desperately needed a DT, and it’s not a terrible late 1st round choice.  Nate Davis was a reach, but he does fill a need as well.  They also added DB depth with the selection of Amani Hooker.  They didn’t need any more OLBs even with Brian Orakpo retiring.  They could’ve added a tight end instead with Delanie Walker getting older.  But overall, this was still a solid draft that filled plenty of needs.
 Indianapolis Colts
The Colts had a boatload of big needs going in, so even with 10 draft picks, it would’ve been hard to fulfill all their needs.  The Colts did fill a good number of them though.  They got some front seven help, added WR Parris Campbell, and drafted a corner early. However, they reached quite a bit on some of these picks when it was not necessary.  Indy had much better options in many of these scenarios.  The failure to take advantage of these options definitely impacts their grade, but the filling of most needs boosts it.
 Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars did fill most of their biggest needs, but their priorities were not quite set straight.  Jawaan Taylor was a steal in Round 2.  But did Jacksonville need a tackle?  No.  The Jags opted to take Taylor and wait on their other needs as opposed to grabbing a RB or S early.  They didn’t really address the secondary at all, instead opting to snag top players available like Gardner Minshew and Dontavius Russell in the late rounds.  At other times, they reached for picks.  Some of these picks will pay off to an extent, but others just didn’t make sense.
 Houston Texans
The Texans didn’t even have that many needs to fill.  But they threw their needs aside on some of these picks.  I think the Texans were selectively targeting a group of players they believed were underrated and had a future, and the Texans are entitled to their own opinions. They may love this draft class. But in my eyes, many of these picks were unnecessary reaches.  For example, they took tackles Tytus Howard and Max Scharping when there were better options and they needed a guard more.  In the meantime, they failed to add depth at wide receiver and linebacker.  Many of these picks confused me.  They weren’t a fit, a bargain, or a need filler, so that significantly bogs down their grade.
That’s all for this portion of my NFL Draft Report Cards. Next time, I’ll wrap this series up with the AFC West, where another two of the best draft classes in the league came from. Which AFC West teams came out on top? Stay tuned for my next post to find out.
Welcome to my Week 15 NFL Picks and Previews.  Last week was a rough week, as I went 6-10, putting my overall record at 115-92-2 (117-93-2 including TNF and Saturday).  I am still only ahead of 1 expert (Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports). This week, many teams have a chance to lock up playoff spots, but will all of the current contenders keep rolling this week, or will some fall behind as other teams rise?  The Patriots take on the Steelers, and the Saints play the Panthers in Carolina, so there’s bound to be a couple teams knocked out of contention.  Pittsburgh, who’s already just 7-5-1, faces not only New England but also the Saints on their remaining schedule. This could open the door for the Ravens and Browns in the AFC North. Keep reading to find out what I think, and feel free to comment with your thoughts.
Lock of the Week
The Redskins won’t be able to do much offensively with Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson as their QBs. Â The Jags may have struggled this season, but their defense is still easily top 10 in the NFL. This will open the door for young QB Cody Kessler and the Jaguars to put up a strong offensive game in a blowout win. Â The Redskins defense will lack motivation considering how badly the offense is doing, allowing Kessler to toss multiple TD and the Jacksonville run game to dominate.
Upset of the Week
Seattle has been strong at home this season with a 5-2 record.  But on the road, they are a measly 3-3. We’ve seen what Niners QB Nick Mullens is capable of.  Against an inexperienced Seahawks defense, I could see Mullens having a big game and leading San Francisco to pull off an upset.  The Niners run game will struggle though, since RB Matt Breida is not 100%. Seattle should have a decent game offensively, but they won’t be able to compete with Mullens’ dominance, and QB Russell Wilson will struggle to connect with any WR who isn’t named Tyler Lockett.  Mullens will prove that although he’s not the future of the Niners, he is a capable QB who can handle the weaker defenses in the league with ease.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night; Actual Score: 29-28 Chargers)
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Look for QB Philip Rivers and his receivers to lead the Chargers past the weak Kansas City defense in a close, overtime game.  The Chiefs should also look very strong on offense, but they won’t be up to full speed without RB Kareem Hunt and WR Sammy Watkins.  This and the defensive struggles will cost the Chiefs late in the game. |
| Saturday, 4:30 PM EST (Posted to Twitter Saturday; Actual Score: 29-22 Texans)
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Expect QB Sam Darnold and the Jets to put up a relatively strong game, even against the tough Houston defense.  But QB Deshaun Watson and the Texans will get by as the Jets are still held under 20. The return of RB Dont’a Foreman will boost the Texans’ offensive performance in the road victory. |
| Saturday, 8:20 PM EST (Posted to Twitter Saturday; Actual Score: 17-16 Browns)
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Look for the Broncos to win at home in a low scoring game. Â The Browns will struggle against a tough Broncos defense in Denver despite a stronger offensive season. Â The strong defense as well as a big game from the Broncos RBs will lead the Broncos in their victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Led by the WR duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, expect the Vikings to secure a victory at home after losing 2 in a row. Â The Vikes defense will help their case as well, but the Dolphins will make this closer than you think. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Josh Allen to lead the Bills to a home victory, taking advantage of his running abilities with RB LeSean McCoy out and RB Chris Ivory banged-up. Â The Lions will look better offensively than they have been lately, but the Bills defense will prevent Detroit from providing a serious challenge. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Lamar Jackson will prove himself as Baltimore’s starting QB here, leading the Ravens to victory at home.  The Ravens D will also have a strong game, holding Tampa under 15. The Bucs offense will lack the energy it usually has in the loss, making the Ravens D’s job easier.  |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to outperform their expectations against the young Oakland defense.  Cincy’s run game will help, as Joe Mixon has 100+ yards rushing. But Driskel will still throw multiple TDs in the victory.  Meanwhile, Oakland will be held to just 1 TD, as QB Derek Carr has a hard time relying on his WRs, instead relying on TE Jared Cook.  |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Marcus Mariota should be able to find his receivers despite lacking WR depth, as the Giants defense struggles to contain Mariota’s receivers without S Landon Collins (injured) and CB Eli Apple (traded).  The Giants will fall short as the defense struggles and QB Eli Manning throws throws more picks than he throws TDs. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Colts offense should be alright against the young Dallas D. Â However, QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will continue to dominate against the weak Colts defense. Â Strong games by WR Amari Cooper and RB Ezekiel Elliott will lead them to victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for DE Khalil Mack and the Bears defense to dominate against a Packers team that lacks talent outside of QB Aaron Rodgers. Â This will allow QB Mitch Trubisky and the Bears to thrive, winning easily with the help of a strong game by their RB duo. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Matt Ryan and his receivers to dominate against the struggling Arizona defense.  The Cardinals will also put up an underwhelming performance on offense, as QB Josh Rosen struggles to find his receivers without WR Christian Kirk, even against the weak Falcons D.  The Cardinals will fall short after Atlanta’s much better offensive game. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
Check back closer to kickoff for a video preview! |
The Pats will get by in Pittsburgh, but QB Tom Brady will still struggle to connect with his receivers on the road.  The Steelers offense will struggle as well and their run game won’t be able to do much of anything without RB James Conner.  |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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QB Jared Goff and the Rams will look good against the depleted Eagles defense, even if they aren’t at their best.  But it’s LA’s defense that will lead the Rams to victory. The Rams defense will shut down a Philly offense that can be explosive at times. |
| Monday, 8:15 PM EST
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The Saints should be able to get by on the road, even against Carolina. Â New Orleans will not be at full strength in their third straight road game, especially after losing their momentum in an all out embarrassing loss to Dallas. Â The Panthers defense will hold them back, but QB Drew Brees and WR Michael Thomas will lead the Saints to victory. QB Cam Newton and his offense will make it close in primetime, but it will not be enough. |
That’s all for this week.  Stay tuned for more posts soon.
Welcome to my Week 12 NFL Picks and Previews.  On Thanksgiving Day, I went 3-0, putting my overall record at 88-74-2.  However, I am still only ahead of 1 expert from CBS Sports, and none from ESPN.  This week, I think we will see the biggest contenders besides the Rams and Chiefs (who both take a bye after last week’s shootout) will rise to the top with victories this week.  Meanwhile, teams that had snuck into the playoff picture despite an underwhelming season will fall. With the playoffs approaching, this week it will begin to become clear who’s really here to stay.
Lock of the Week
Look for the Panthers to shut down Seattle’s run game here.  This will put a lot on QB Russell Wilson and his receivers, and I don’t think they’ll put up enough for Seattle to make this close in Carolina.  They will fail to step it up in the place of the run game. Meanwhile, QB Cam Newton and his receivers will be all over the Seahawks’ young secondary as Carolina dominates in a blowout victory.
Upset of the Week
The return of QB Ryan Tannehill will give the Dolphins offense a big boost.  Expect Tannehill to throw multiple TDs and shock the Colts in Indy. The Colts will make it close thanks to dominance by the combo of QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton.  But the Colts will fall short against Miami’s revamped offense, and the weak defensive game will not help matters.
The Other Games
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Expect the Jets young, but underrated defense to limit the abilities of QB Tom Brady and his offense. Â But the Patriots should find a way to score in New York. Meanwhile, Jets QB Josh McCown will struggle regressively against an improved New England defense. Â This will lead to a Patriots blowout victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Jaguars D will get back on task in Buffalo, holding QB Josh Allen and the Bills to just 1 TD. Â Meanwhile, QB Blake Bortles will improve against a mediocre Bills defense, throwing 2+ TD. This will lead to a Jaguars road win in a surprisingly easy game. Â |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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QB Lamar Jackson will thrive again here, utilizing Baltimore’s strong run game and tossing multiple TD.  The Ravens will struggle to win the turnover battle against an Oakland D that has forced a surprising number of turnovers.  But the Ravens will come out on top after a very strong offensive game and another clutch defensive performance. Expect the Ravens to hold the new-look Raiders offense under 20 in the victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Andy Dalton and his receivers to find a way here without WR A.J. Green.  The Browns offense will look alright, but I don’t see it being enough against the stingy Bengals D.  This will allow Cincy to prevail despite an underwhelming offensive game. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Expect a big game from QB Carson Wentz as he throws 3 TD against a washed-up Giants D.  Giants QB Eli Manning should continue his multi-TD game streak here and look better than usual.  But it won’t be enough against the high-powered Philly offense. The Eagles’ hopes of winning the division will be restored in this divisional victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for the Bucs to catch a break at home against the Jimmy Garoppolo-less Niners.  The Tampa Bay run game could look surprisingly strong against San Francisco’s young defense.  If not, QB Jameis Winston will perform better than QB Ryan Fitzpatrick did. It won’t be perfection, but it would be enough for the Bucs victory.  QB Nick Mullens and his receivers will make this close against a struggling Bucs D, but it won’t be enough against the strong Buccaneers offense. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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Look for a surprisingly low scoring game here despite a battle of two strong offenses. Â Both defenses will thrive in the red zone, as only 4 total TDs are scored in 10+ opportunities. Â QB Josh Rosen and RB David Johnson will lead a strong Arizona offense, but expect them to fall short against QB Philip Rivers and the high-powered Chargers offense. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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The Denver offense may struggle after the Demaryius Thomas trade.  But the Broncos defense will make up for it, silencing Pittsburgh’s typically dominant offense by holding them TD-less in Denver.  The Steelers will continue to miss RB Le’Veon Bell after a tough loss in Denver. |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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Against a strong Vikes secondary, QB Aaron Rodgers will struggle to find his receivers, especially with TE Jimmy Graham injured. Â Expect a Vikings victory thanks to the strong defense as well as a strong, multi-TD game by QB Kirk Cousins. This will cause the Packers to begin worrying that their wrath in the NFC North is over. |
| Monday, 8:15 PM EST
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Expect QB Deshaun Watson to utilize his newfound WR duo in a home victory.  The young Tennessee defense will do a good job imitating Houston’s shut down D, but they won’t quite get up to Houston’s level.  The Texans will come out victorious in primetime as they play complimentary football. |
That’s all for my picks this week.  Stay tuned for more posts soon, including Part 2 of my MLB free agency predictions.
Welcome to my NFL Week 8 Picks and Previews.  Last week I went 8-6, putting my overall record at 61-44-2 (62-44-2 including Week 8 TNF).  I’m hoping for at least 9 or 10 wins this week to get ahead of the ESPN and CBS Sports experts I am trying to compete with.  I am ahead of just 1 expert from each website. This week, expect a lot of close, exciting games. Even Vegas is predicting this, as many of their NFL point spreads this week are under 4.  But with lots of close games comes lots of surprises. Who will pull a shocking upset? Who will stand strong and win as expected? Read below to find out what I think.
Lock of the Week (MNF)
Stay tuned for a potential video preview closer to the game!
There are not many locks this week, but the Patriots should be able to take down the QB Josh Allen-less Bills with ease.  It doesn’t matter if it’s in Buffalo, and it doesn’t matter that it’s Monday Night Football. Expect QB Tom Brady and the Pats to dominate here, taking an early lead and running with it.  The Patriots defense isn’t going to go from shaky to shut down in a week, but it should hold a struggling, banged-up Bills offense to 20 or less points. One thing this offense does have on the New England is a strong run game. New England has continued to struggle against strong run games this year.  But I don’t expect much else from the Bills offense, and the Pats should end up winning by 10 or more.
Upset of the Week
This would be a shocker given Kansas City’s performance in Denver and Denver’s tendency to perform far better at home.  But it’s hard to beat the same team twice, especially when they are riding the momentum of a 45-10 victory including a spectacular defensive game.  I understand that it was the Cardinals, but momentum is momentum. Thanks to this momentum, I think Denver’s D will do surprisingly well in stopping Kansas City’s dominant offense.  This all-offense Chiefs team will struggle against a Broncos offense that has improved from 2017. TE Travis Kelce will catch Kansas City’s lone TD as the rest of the offense is overwhelmed by the Denver D in an upsetting loss.
The Other Games
| TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night)
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Expect a low scoring game as the Texans shut down defense overwhelms QB Brock Osweiler and the young Miami pass offense.  Expect the Dolphins backfield to struggle as well, with Houston’s defense holding them under 50 yards combined. I don’t see the Texans dominating on offense, but it will be enough thanks to a strong game by WR DeAndre Hopkins and the front seven’s performance. |
| Sunday, 9:30 AM EST (Posted to Twitter before the game)
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I don’t think Jacksonville’s defense will look as sharp as usual in London, especially after 4 Jaguars defenders were arrested last night.  But they will improve from the surprising struggles of the last couple weeks. Look for QB Blake Bortles to regroup and rebound after being replaced last week, leading the Jags to a surprising London victory. But Philly should keep it close with strong run defense against the troubled Jags run game. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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In this battle of two of the league’s rising defenses, don’t expect much from either young QB.  QB Mitch Trubisky and his receivers will put up a dud against New York’s amazing secondary. But the Jets offense won’t be looking any better with RB Bilal Powell and most of their best receivers hurt.  Chicago’s defense should come up clutch, holding the Jets under 10 and saving Chicago the game. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Browns tied the Steelers in Cleveland, but don’t expect as close a game in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers will make up for RB Le’Veon Bell’s continued absence with a dominant day by WRs Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.  Pittsburgh’s D should also appear surprisingly better, holding the Browns young offense under 20. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Jameis Winston and his TE duo to lead Tampa to victory against a Bengals defense left with holes after losses in free agency. Â QB Andy Dalton and his receivers should make this close, but the defensive problems will begin to stab them in the back. The Bucs will win on the road thanks to another big day on offense. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Expect a strong game out of QB Cam Newton and the Panthers offense.  But the Ravens versatile defense should slow them down significantly.  However, Baltimore’s receivers will still struggle to keep up as Newton’s multi-TD game is enough to lead Carolina to victory. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I know most people would call me crazy for expecting 34 points out of the Giants.  But this is a team that beat the 5-3 Houston Texans. I don’t think the G-Men are really as bad as they seem.  Even the GM has given up. But I think the Giants will turn it around and win a few games before the season ends.  They have a talented, star-studded offense. All they need is a QB who can manage that. If QB Eli Manning cannot, maybe another QB on the roster is the answer.  WR Odell Beckham Jr. will be kept busy against CB Josh Norman, but you can expect strong games out of RB Saquon Barkley and New York’s other offensive weapons. The Redskins will make this close with a clutch offensive performance, but I have them falling just short. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for Matt Patricia’s Lions to win another one on home turf as they begin to look like legitimate contenders.  The Seahawks should be able to overwhelm the Lions D, one of Detroit’s biggest flaws this year. But QB Matthew Stafford’s 3 TD game should be enough for a Lions home victory. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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The Colts should make this close with a surprisingly strong offensive performance led by QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton.  They will take advantage of a weak, rebuilding Raiders D. But expect Oakland to shine on offense against Indy, who has one of the worst defenses in the league.  It doesn’t matter if WR Amari Cooper is here or not. The Raiders will miss Cooper and injured RB Marshawn Lynch, but should still manage to win. If they can beat the Browns in Oakland, they can do the same to Indy. |
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST |
I was tempted to pick the Packers in an upset as the Rams offense struggles without injured WR Cooper Kupp. Â But this versatile Rams defense is just too good to allow 20+ points to a Packers offense that lacks WR depth despite an amazing QB in Aaron Rodgers. Â Defense will win the Rams this game as they remain undefeated. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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Arizona’s only win so far this year was in San Francisco.  I think they can beat the QB Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers again in Arizona.  They will be led by strong games out of young QB Josh Rosen and RB David Johnson.  The Niners should look decent on offense and make this close. But I think the Cardinals will hold on on home turf. |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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I think Minnesota’s offense will be slowed by a young Saints D that just added CB Eli Apple.  But the Vikings defense should look even better, holding the Saints under 20 points and to just 1 TD.  This shut down defensive performance should lead the Vikes to victory. |
That’s all for my picks and previews this week.  Stay tuned for more NFL posts soon, including my midseason report next week.
Welcome to my Week 5 NFL picks and previews.  Last week I went 10-5, placing my overall record at 37-24-2 (38-24-2 including Week 5 TNF).  I’m ahead of 9 of ESPN’s 10 experts and 3 of CBS Sports’ 8 experts.
There are a lot of intriguing match-ups this week.  The Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals, two of the league’s biggest surprises thus far take each other on.  The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles meet in an NFC Championship rematch. The Kansas City Chiefs’ powerful offense may have met their match in the Jags defense.  Who will win in these close match-ups? Whoever wins, I would expect a lot of surprises. Keep reading to find out who I have winning this week.
Lock of the Week (TNF: Posted to Twitter Thursday Night; Actual Score: 38-24 Patriots)
The Colts will be without RB Marlon Mack, TE Jack Doyle, and most importantly, star WR T.Y. Hilton.  With the offense banged-up, expect QB Andrew Luck to struggle in finding open receivers. Don’t expect a big game from the Colts running backs either.  Meanwhile, I think the Colts defense (which is also banged-up) will fail to contain QB Tom Brady and his receivers. I could see the Pats blowing out and possibly even shutting out the injury-riddled Colts.
Upset of the Week
Coming out of the bye, the Panthers will still be without their top receiving target in TE Greg Olsen.  I think they will start to miss him this week as the Giants secondary keeps Carolina’s remaining receivers well covered.  Meanwhile, I don’t expect a huge game out of RB Christian McCaffrey against an above average Giants defensive front. The Giants will pull the upset thanks to a strong passing game and improved defense.
The Other Games
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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These teams might be the two biggest pleasant surprises of the season so far. This week, we’ll likely see which is here to contend, and which is pretending.  I think the Bengals will look like legitimate contenders in this game. The defense will see improvement with LB Vontaze Burfict back from his suspension. Meanwhile, QB Andy Dalton will find plenty of open men, even without TE Tyler Eifert.  However, Miami will make it close as WR Kenny Stills and rookie TE Mike Gesicki step it up. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for QB Josh Allen to lead Buffalo’s offense to a close game against an inconsistent Titans D.  Allen has done well in these last couple games. However, I think the Titans will run away with the victory as the offense finds a way, led by the duo of QB Marcus Mariota and WR Corey Davis.  |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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The Broncos defense has been among the NFL’s best for a long time, and the Jets young defense is emerging as well.  Look for both defenses to thrive in a low scoring game. The Denver secondary will do an especially good job at containing QB Sam Darnold and his receivers. I don’t expect the Broncos to look amazing on offense, but they should edge out a victory in New York. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I think Pittsburgh will look alright on offense despite missing RB Le’Veon Bell.  But the Falcons WR trio will be too much for the Steelers secondary. The Steelers have never been more than mediocre on defense, and it will cost them here.  Expect Atlanta’s RB duo to thrive with RB Devonta Freeman back and QB Matt Ryan to find open receivers for TDs. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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Look for Cleveland’s defense to step it up, leading Cleveland to a home victory.  QB Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense shouldn’t do especially well against a strong Ravens secondary.  But, look for the Browns’ underrated, young defense to cause QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens receivers to struggle. That will be enough for the Browns to pull out a win. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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I understand the Chiefs are undefeated and their offense looks unstoppable.  But they haven’t seen a defense like Jacksonville’s. I also think the Jaguars will take advantage of the all offense, no defense Chiefs and put together a strong offensive game of their own.  The Chiefs have a very tough schedule ahead, and this could be the start of a stretch that bring the Chiefs from unbeatable to a borderline playoff contender. The Jags seem like the team to finally put an end to Kansas City’s offensive dominance and undefeated season. |
| Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
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A lot of people see this as a lock in Green Bay’s favor, but this will not be easy.  We’ve seen what Detroit’s offense is capable of at its best, and Green Bay will be without WRs Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  QB Aaron Rodgers is not at full health either. Look for the Lions offense to get out to an early lead. But I think QB Aaron Rodgers will have another clutch game, and Rodgers alonMelg with the rising young talent surrounding him will lead the team to a comeback victory. |
| Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
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Look for RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to make an impact against the Mack-less Raiders run defense.  I also expect QB Philip Rivers and his receivers to have a successful game. I think this Chargers offense can be all-around dominant against Oakland’s subpar defense.  QB Derek Carr will make this close when he tosses 3 TD of his own, but it won’t be enough in this offensive shootout. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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These teams have two of the best defenses in the NFC, so don’t expect too much scoring.  The Vikings passing game will be somewhat successful in Philly, but you can’t count on the run game with RB Dalvin Cook battling a hamstring injury.  I think QB Carson Wentz will manage to find a way at home, even going up against the lights out Vikes defense. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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QB Josh Rosen led the Cardinals to their closest game thus far last week, and I truly think they can win this one over the Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers.  But I’m not calling a blowout for an 0-4 team. I think the 49ers versatile offense will find a way to keep this close. However, led by RB David Johnson, look for Arizona to edge out a victory. |
| Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
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Expect QB Jared Goff and his offense to dominate in Seattle.  I think they can easily handle this rebuilding Seahawks defense.  Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense will struggle against a Rams D that has emerged as one of the NFC’s best.  I think QB Russell WIlson and the Seahawks run game will be especially overwhelmed by the Rams powerful front seven, and the shut down defense will secure an LA victory. |
| Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
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I think QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense will continue to struggle here, especially since they are facing one of the league’s top defenses.  Even star RB Ezekiel Elliott could struggle going up against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and the dominant Texans defensive front. Houston will secure the victory after a decent offensive performance.  |
| Monday, 8:15 PM EST
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I think the Saints will get it done in primetime, boosted by the return of RB Mark Ingram from his four game suspension.  Look for the Redskins to make it close against a mediocre Saints D, but I don’t think Washington will be able to finish the job in New Orleans. |
That’s all for today’s picks and previews.  Feel free to comment with your thoughts on any of the games. Â
Below is my preview for the Patriots Week 1 game against the Houston Texans as well as the voice-over script used in the video.
The Patriots open their season today against the Houston Texans. With Deshaun Watson healthy, this is bound to be an exciting game between two of the league’s top quarterbacks. The Texans and Patriots are arguably two of the AFC’s best teams this year, but we’ll have to see how they do down the road, because it’s only Week 1, and anything can happen from here.
With Julian Edelman suspended, the Patriots are left with just 3-4 reliable receivers, if they even have that. Brady and the Pats are going to have to do something they’ve done very well at in the past: finding creative ways to score. Whether this means throwing to running backs or putting your 3rd string tight end in the starting lineup, the Pats will do what it takes.
Before Bill Belichick, it was common practice for teams to receive when winning the coin toss. When Belichick started deferring, people wondered why. But Belichick chooses what he thinks is best for the team and always sticks to that even if some think it may not appear as best. He sets the standards and players who don’t buy in are cut.
The Texans have a tough game ahead, especially with WR Will Fuller and RB D’Onta Foreman injured. However, they have star players in WR DeAndre Hopkins and RB Lamar Miller, so the Pats will have to keep them covered and prevent them from leading the Texans to victory with big plays. Defensively, the Texans will have to keep Tom Brady under pressure and TE Rob Gronkowski well covered. I think the Texans strong D is up to the challenge. However, New England will have a game plan to counter and it will come down to which team executes better.
For injuries, the Patriots have RB Sony Michel out and T Marcus Cannon and TE Jacob Hollister Questionable. The Texans have it off worse: WR Will Fuller, a key player on this offense, is out, and RB D’Onta Foreman is on the PUP list. In the end, I have the Patriots working around Houston’s shut down D and winning, 30-23, with Phillip Dorsett stepping it up and leading New England in receiving yards.
Welcome to my NFL Week 13 Picks. I went 12-4 last week, placing my overall record at 100-76. How will I do in this week’s slate of games? Read below and comment with your thoughts.
Lock of the Week
QB Marcus Mariota will lead the Titans offense to a huge game and a victory. TE Delanie Walker and WR Corey Davis among others will help Mariota as the Titans offense takes advantage of the Texans weakening secondary. With the help of the offensive line, the Titans RB duo will also help out the offense against the depleted Texans front seven. For the Texans, QB Tom Savage will struggle to generate offense and score TDs, especially without WR Will Fuller. Titans win after Houston’s struggles.
Upset of the Week
The Falcons depleted defense will fail to shut down the Vikings strong group of receivers. Vikings receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs will help lead the Vikings offense to dominance and help lead the Vikings to victory.  For the Falcons offense, QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones will lead the Atlanta offense to a strong game, but it won’t be enough against the relentless Vikings.
TNF
After a rough week last week, QB Dak Prescott will lead the Cowboys offense to a big game, even without RB Ezekiel Elliott. Both defenses will struggle after losing key players. The Redskins lost S DeAngelo Hall, and the Cowboys lost LB Sean Lee. With Lee out, the Redskins will also thrive offensively in this game. QB Kirk Cousins will lead them to dominance and keep this close. But the Cowboys will outscore them in an offensive shootout.
Sunday’s Games
The Bills will struggle to establish a passing game here due to their QB problems, and the fact that WR Kelvin Benjamin is out. The Pats secondary will be able to shut down the receivers that do play, as the Pats secondary has been dominant lately. For the Patriots offense, a balanced attack will lead them to thrive against a Bills defense that has begun to struggle after a strong start to the season. Pats win as the Bills can’t find their rhythm.
QB Jay Cutler will look a bit better in his return, but he will still struggle against the dominant Broncos defense. The Dolphins defense will also do well though, shutting down the Broncos run game. But despite a hole at QB, the Broncos will still be able to generate an offensive rhythm. However, the Dolphins will win after a defensive rebound led by defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake, as well as safety Reshad Jones.
The Chiefs offense hasn’t been able to lead Kansas City to victory lately, but in this game, I think the defense will. The Chiefs D will shut down the pesky Jets offense with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis against his former team. The Jets defense will fail to shut down deep threat Tyreek Hill and star TE Travis Kelce. After the Jets D struggles and the Chiefs D dominates, the Chiefs will win on the road.
QB Matthew Stafford will lead the versatile Lions receivers to thrive against a banged-up Ravens secondary. But the Ravens will fight back as their younger players like RB Alex Collins and WR Breshad Perriman help lead their offense to dominate. In the end, the Ravens will win in a close game that results in one of the most underrated matchups of the season.
The Jaguars secondary will be dominant against the Colts receivers, and the Jags defensive front will look unstoppable as they shut down the Colts running backs. Meanwhile, the Colts defense will struggle to shut down the Jags young receivers and standout RB Leonard Fournette. The Jags will win after the young offense comes through.
QB Jameis Winston will return to rejuvenate the Bucs offense against a struggling Packers team. The Packers will continue to struggle offensively as well, failing to produce much offense against the underrated Buccaneers defense. Tampa will win after defensive dominance and an offensive bounce back.
This game won’t be too exciting, but the Bears RB duo will help bring some excitement and lead Chicago to victory. The 49ers’ QB problems will cause them to struggle, even against the Bears. The Niners lack depth at receiver, especially without WR Pierre Garcon. The Bears will win, but the game will bring some of the sloppiest defense of the season from both teams.
WR Josh Gordon will help lead the Browns offense to a slightly better game in his return, but it won’t nearly be enough against the Chargers’ electric offense. Besides, this is Gordon’s first game since 2014, so there’s a chance he gets a rude awakening. LA’s offense will just be too strong for the Browns, and Philip Rivers will toss for 400 yards and 5+ TD against the weak Browns defense. The Chargers will win despite the Browns’ efforts to push closer to victory. It will be a more exciting game than you might expect.
The Giants defense will slow down the Raiders’ versatile receivers, especially with WR Amari Cooper out. But the Giants will fail to produce offensively with Geno Smith at QB, and Smith will be knocked around a lot by the Raiders strong defensive front. The Raiders will win after Smith fails another New York team.
The Saints offense won’t be in full swing against the tough Panthers front seven, but they will still have a huge game, even without TE Coby Fleener. The Panthers will struggle to match the Saints’ success without TE Greg Olsen (foot injury) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (mid-season trade). New Orleans will win after their defense slows down the depleted Carolina offense, and the Saints offense puts up another strong game.
The Rams defense will shut down the Cardinals offense that will be without WR John Brown in this game and without RB David Johnson and QB Carson Palmer for the rest of the season. The Rams offense won’t look like themselves against the stingy Arizona secondary, but they will still manage to pull away with a victory against a troubled Arizona offense.
QB Carson Wentz will lead the Eagles to victory in a Sunday Night offensive shootout. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson will also look good during primetime and he will challenge Philly. But the Eagles will be dominant as they take advantage of the depleted Seahawks secondary and win the game. Seattle’s secondary will be without CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor in this primetime clash.
The Bengals offense will struggle in the heat of primetime, especially against Pittsburgh’s difficult front seven. On the other hand, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense will look good against their divisional rivals on Monday Night. Big Ben will lead a great group of Steelers receivers to dominate, and the Steelers will win again. The return of WR JuJu Smith-Schuster will help them.
That’s all for my Week 13 Picks. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.
Boston Sports Mania 