MLB 2021 Predictions: National League

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April is almost here, and when the month begins, so will the MLB season. Just like in my last 7 years writing this blog, I have put together predictions for the season. We only got 60 MLB games last year, but for this year we’ll have a full 162 game season. I just went on my cousin Michael Philipkosky’s podcast, the Master Plan, to discuss all 30 teams, with one episode for the AL and one episode for the NL. Monday, I posted the AL podcast alongside my predictions. You can check out the NL podcast here, and I have my full NL predictions below.

NL East

Atlanta Braves (100-62, #2 seed)
New York Mets (91-71, #5 seed)
Philadelphia Phillies (89-73)
Washington Nationals (82-80)
Miami Marlins (78-84)

This might be the best division in baseball. The Braves and Mets will be competing for the division title most likely. Atlanta has a great duo of star hitters in first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. Their rotation is also starting to come together between younger pitchers like Ian Anderson and veterans like Charlie Morton (signed this offseason). The Mets were purchased by Steve Cohen this offseason, and he told Mets fans that the Mets would leave mediocrity behind them and act like the big market team they are. Cohen hired a new GM, and the team made a ton of moves, highlighted by a trade for shortstop Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco. You also can’t forget that they have Jacob deGrom who’s arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

That doesn’t mean the other teams won’t be competitive. It will be difficult to secure a playoff spot in the NL, but the rest of these teams will at least fail trying. Philadelphia has their flaws, but between outfielder Bryce Harper, first baseman Rhys Hoskins, and a nice top two starting pitchers in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, they have a lot of talent. This should be a somewhat competitive team, but the bullpen among other minor problems could hold them back, similar to how the Celtics have struggled this season in the NBA. The Nationals experienced a World Series hangover last year, and I think they’ll see some improvement in 2021 even though that will be tough in this division. They brought in first baseman Josh Bell alongside outfielder Juan Soto and an amazing rotation. Washington has as much star power as most teams in baseball, but they lack the depth to make a run in this NL East.

The Marlins were the joke of the division back in 2019, but they saw many young pitchers break out and lead them to a 2020 playoff spot. The outfield has really come along as well with Adam Duvall joining Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. I think the Marlins have definitely made progress in their rebuild, more so than the Tigers and Orioles who saw surprising starts to the season last year. However, it will be hard for Miami to make the playoffs again now that they are back down to 10 teams (you never know though).

Even though the Mets and Braves are frontrunners, I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these teams in the playoffs.

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds (88-74, #3 seed)
St. Louis Cardinals (87-75)
Chicago Cubs (80-82)
Milwaukee Brewers (65-97)
Pittsburgh Pirates (53-109)

I doubt more than one team makes the playoffs out of this division. Compared to the depth of the NL East and the star power of the NL West, the NL Central is not in a good spot. I think the Reds and Cardinals will be competing for that spot. The Reds lost starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, but the lineup is still strong and the rotation is still serviceable despite depth problems behind Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo. The Cardinals were already decent last year. Now they brought in star third baseman and MVP candidate Nolan Arenado. That could put them in a position to contend, but I still don’t see them dominating this division.

The Cubs were looking like they were in for a long rebuild after cutting contracts early in the offseason. However, after lots of rumors they decided to hold on to third baseman Kris Bryant and add some rotation depth. If they were trying to rebuild, they halted that effort. If they’re trying to contend, I don’t see them achieving that goal. The Cubs haven’t really chosen what direction to go in, and I expect that they will decide by the time the Trade Deadline rolls around. If not, they’ll be stuck in the middle for now.

The Brewers may have 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich in their lineup, but this rotation is not anywhere close to the other teams in this division. They’ll need to add pitching before they think about contending again.

They’ll still be better than Pittsburgh, a rebuilding team in their own realm. They already traded first baseman Josh Bell and I bet outfielder Gregory Polanco will be gone by midseason. That will leave an inexperienced roster with no sign of improvement anytime soon. They’ll need some prospects to develop before they contend again. That development will start by letting the MLB ready prospects like third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes start.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers (107-55, #1 seed)
San Diego Padres (94-68, #4 seed)
Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
San Francisco Giants (77-85)
Colorado Rockies (65-97)

The Dodgers are another team that will be in their own realm: a realm of dominance. This lineup is highlighted by outfielders Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger but has a lot of talent and depth around those two including Corey Seager and Justin Turner. The lineup isn’t even the best part here. The Dodgers have David Price, Dustin May, and Julio Urias competing for their final two rotation spots! That’s because they have Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Walker Buehler as their top three. No team in baseball has a rotation that can compete with that. The Dodgers are the closest thing I’ve seen in a while to a lock for the best record in baseball. The question is whether the Dodgers will choke in the playoffs like they did in 2017, 2018, and 2019 before winning it all in 2020.

Everyone’s been debating whether the Dodgers or Padres will win this division. I don’t understand how you can have that debate. The Padres are a really good baseball team. In some other divisions they’d come out on top. In this division they seem to be a lock for a Wild Card spot. The Padres rotation went from inconsistent at best to one of the better rotations in baseball. This offseason they brought in Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove to bolster the pitching staff. The lineup was already strong, headlined by third baseman Manny Machado and the young Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop. However, you can’t put them on the same level as the Dodgers.

Behind those two teams, this division isn’t anything spectacular. The Diamondbacks might be the definition of average. They don’t have many standout players, but they have a serviceable lineup and a serviceable rotation. This is a high floor, low ceiling team. They will most likely be close to, if not exactly .500. They should beat up on the Giants and Rockies but cannot come anywhere close to competing with the Dodgers and Padres.

The Giants have improved between developing young talent and bringing in a couple of veterans. This isn’t their year though. Maybe next year they’ll see more improvement and cook up some even year magic. The Rockies have actually regressed since last year. They dealt away Arenado and shortstop Trevor Story and outfielder Charlie Blackmon could be gone soon too. The core of the lineup is beginning to disband and though the rotation saw some success last year, it’s nothing spectacular.

That’s all for my MLB predictions this year. Stay tuned for more baseball coverage soon, including my MLB playoff bracket which I’ll be posting at some point on Twitter.

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

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I understand, this a little late, as Opening Day was Thursday, and the Red Sox didn’t look so great Thursday even though they are a part of this Top 6. But I figured I’d finish this series since there’s only one article left.

Welcome to the final article of my 2019 MLB preseason power rankings. This season, you could argue the Super Seven that was discussed a few years back still exists, except with different teams. The Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Yankees have remained elite, and despite declines by the Nationals, Indians, and Dodgers (probably) , new powerhouses in this league have arised. The Braves should be regular contenders now, the Cardinals could make a run with 1B Paul Goldschmidt here for the long run, and the Phillies should be competitive with Bryce Harper. But Philadelphia isn’t quite on the level of these other teams. So unless the Dodgers do stay elite after all, I think the Super Seven will become a Super Six. I will be discussing those six today and pointing out the Achilles Heel of each team. Click the links below for other articles in the series (I will add them as I post them):

2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings Series:

Ranking The Teams #30-25, My Version: The Bottom of the Barrel

Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

Ranking The Teams #18-13, My Version: Who else Misses out on Playoff Contention?

Ranking The Teams #12-7, My Version: Who has Playoff Chances?

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

I also released my 3rd annual preseason Baseball Bits!

6. St. Louis Cardinals

The Case for the Cardinals

The Cardinals haven’t made the playoffs in a few years, sure. But the veterans they kept around from their last playoff run, like Matt Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina, are still reliable contributors. They have also boosted the team with younger talent, including SP Jack Flaherty, OFs Harrison Bader and UT Jose Martinez, and SS Paul DeJong. After adding star in Goldy, the Cardinals have the tools they need for contention. But how far can they go in such a tough division? They will have to get past their division rivals that are also contending, the Cubs and Brewers.

The Achilles Heel

The Cards’ rotation looks alright and its young core will keep the rotation elite for a long time. But right now they lack an ace. I don’t believe they can be a World Series contender without one. Whether they need a trade to find an ace or someone steps up as time passes, this could hold them back from serious contention and should be priority #1 for GM Steve Keim. Maybe Martinez could be a good trade piece now that 1B Paul Goldschmidt is on board.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 2nd in NL Central

5. Boston Red Sox

The Case for the Red Sox

The defending World Series champions had a relatively quiet off-season. They did retain most of the team from 2018 that won 108 games. But the bullpen has been their biggest issue, even with Craig Kimbrel. Without Craig Kimbrel, there is even more pressure on the rotation to succeed. This is especially true regarding Chris Sale and David Price. After Sale’s extension, both will be expected to to shine every start in order to be worth the money. Each start costs about $1 million dollars. Regardless of this pressure, the Red Sox should at least secure a Wild Card spot if they can’t beat out the Yankees in the AL East. They are still one of several powerhouses in the league.

The Achilles Heel

With Craig Kimbrel on the way out, the closer role is up for grabs. But if you look at the active pitchers on the roster, it’s hard to imagine any of them as a consistent closer. If the Red Sox wanted to repeat, they would’ve invested more in this bullpen rather than focusing so much on the rotation. They need to add a closer unless Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, or someone else steps up soon.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 2nd in AL East

4. Atlanta Braves

The Case for the Braves

The Braves’ rebuild began to pay off last season as their younger players broke through. This off-season seemed quiet, but they filled a gaping hole at third by adding Josh Donaldson. They also brought back OF Nick Markakis, and they have reportedly been targeting a reunion with CL Craig Kimbrel. This small series of moves could make a big difference in Atlanta. These moves, alongside development of OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and 2B Ozzie Albies among other should transform the Braves from solely a division contender into a World Series contender. The Braves are my World Series winner this year. I expect 1B Freddie Freeman, Albies, Donaldson, and others to combine to make for one of the best lineups in the league.

The Achilles Heel

Health is definitely a concern, especially considering the fact that Atlanta will start the 2019 season with two starting pitchers on the IL. Donaldson is also injury prone, and if he goes down, Johan Camargo is the next best option at third base. I don’t trust Camargo as a starter. If the team stays healthy in the long run, they could be serious contenders. Otherwise, they could be in a bit of trouble.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 1st in NL East

3. Chicago Cubs

The Case for the Cubs

The Cubs may have been quiet this off-season, but a healthy Yu Darvish will boost the rotation, the bullpen has plenty of depth despite questions at closer, and the lineup is looking pretty solid. Their decision to move Javier Baez to shortstop full time and put Ben Zobrist at second is very smart, as SS Addison Russell was inconsistent and had some character issues. The Cubs have dominated in the National League ever since their World Series winning year in 2016, but with a health a concern and the division getting tougher, will the Cubs be able to keep up the good work?

The Achilles Heel

The Cubs were unable to do much this off-season, and they could have used another outfielder. LF Kyle Schwarber and RF Jason Heyward are viable starters, but they are very streaky and inconsistent. Albert Almora Jr. is the best option in center field. Chicago should have added another center fielder to start over Almora some days and fill in for Heyward and Schwarber during slumps.

Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st in NL Central

2. New York Yankees

The Case for the Yankees

After pairing new slugger Aaron Judge with Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees underperformed in 2018. Yes, they made the playoffs and won 100 games. But they were overshadowed and eliminated by their bitter rival, the Boston Red Sox. This year, the Red Sox will be without their star closer, while the Yankees fixed up a problematic rotation and built one of the most stacked bullpens in history. This will allow the Yankees to propel past the Red Sox and win the AL East. But in Boston and New York, it’s all about championships, and the Yankees aren’t will have to work for a World Series victory, even with the stacked roster.

The Achilles Heel

The Yanks have some nice pieces in their infield. But if Troy Tulowitzki and Greg Bird fail to stay healthy, they are left with D.J. LeMahieu as their best infielder. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have not reached their prime yet, and Luke Voit must still prove that 2018 was not a fluke. So I’m a bit concerned in terms of infield depth for the Yankees.

Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st in AL East

1. Houston Astros

The Case for the Astros

The Astros are two years removed from their World Series victory, a result of a 5-year rebuild that made the Astros one of the MLB’s worst for a good 2-3 year span. Now, the Astros are still one of the league’s elite teams, but they lost some of their starting rotation depth this off-season, forcing two starter-turned-relievers back into the rotation. They did bring in OF Michael Brantley and UT Aledmys Diaz, filling the hole UT Marwin Gonzalez left. Though Houston took a slight step back this off-season, I still have them as my AL West winners and the team with the best regular season record. Considering the young core they have put together in the last several years, they should be elite for a long, long, time now.

The Achilles Heel

Evan Gattis is no longer on the team, which means Tyler White must be trusted as Houston’s regular DH. This could be a prove-it situation for White, but if White struggles, what then? They could bring Gattis back, or they could just put Diaz back there. They could even call up Kyle Tucker to play DH. This one’s an easy fix, just something to keep an eye on.

Projected Finish: 96-66, 1st in AL West

That’s all for this year’s preseason MLB power rankings. Come back at the end of April for my first 2019 set of monthly power rankings.

Baseball Bits #11: How Much are Harper, Machado, Really Worth?

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Welcome to the final article of my initial 2018-19 MLB free agency coverage. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may be the Top 2 free agents of the off-season, but how much money are they really worth? Keep reading to find out my take. If you haven’t seen them yet, you can also check out my previous MLB free agency articles at the links below. In February, I may also have some updated predictions on where the final remaining free agents will sign, so stay tuned.

MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Coverage – Tentative Schedule

Week of November 19: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers

Week of November 26: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Catchers & Infielders

Week of December 3: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders & Trade Ideas

Week of January 21: Baseball Bits #11: How Much Money are Harper, Machado Really Worth?

It’s been a crazy off-season so far. The Mariners have completely refreshed their roster, and the Dodgers dealt away Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in one trade. Winter Meetings were not only full of trades, but also free agent signings. Many of the top free agents, including Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Brantley, Josh Donaldson, Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal, and Andrew McCutchen have been signed.

But the top two free agents of the off-season, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, remain unsigned. Harper and Machado are regarded as a couple of the league’s best offensive players, and among free agent batters, Harper and Machado were the Top 2 in oWAR. Both Harper and Machado are capable of making a mediocre team a contender, or making a team that’s already a borderline playoff contender a relevant World Series contender.

Machado met with three teams in December: the White Sox, Yankees, and Phillies. He is likely going to sign with one of those three teams, but he has not made his decision yet, though he has reportedly narrowed it down to the White Sox and Phillies. Originally, I had predicted that Machado would go to the Phillies. But after their acquistion of Jean Segura, I see the White Sox as the best fit. There could be mystery teams in on Machado though, according to several newer reports.

Harper has not met with any teams yet, but the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, and Phillies among others have shown interest. After trading away two of their outfielders and more to the Reds for next to nothing, it would not be smart for the Dodgers to pass on Harper. But I think there’s a chance he’ll sign with the White Sox or Phillies as well.

Although they have some different suitors, one thing Harper and Machado have in common is their demand for a big contract. Harper turned down a 10 year, $300 million contract offered by the Nationals back in September. Machado could also reportedly sign for $250-300 million or more. But are Harper and Machado, let alone any free agent batter worth that much money?

I did some research on some free agents throughout the last 12 years. I looked at free agent batters and pitchers who were Top 50 in oWAR or pWAR the season before they hit the open market who ended up signing for at least $12 million/year and at least $45 million total. I researched their stats the following year. Did their WAR improve or decline? I looked at other stats too, like OPS for batters, and ERA for pitchers. The goal is to gauge how much Harper and Machado are really worth based on how big an impact they could realistically make right off the bat. Keep reading to see my research and some interesting “Baseball Bits” that I found through my research.

The Research

baseball bits #11_ how much money are harper and machado really worth_ (3)

The “Baseball Bits”

Of the 23 free agent batters since 2006 who were Top 50 in oWAR and signed for at least $12 million/year and $45 million total:
- Only 2, or 8.7% (Lorenzo Cain and Nelson Cruz) saw an increase in oWAR AND OPS throughout their contract, and only 1 of the 2 saw an increase in oWAR of 1.0 or more (Cruz, 4.2 → 6.0)
- Only 4, or 17.4%, saw an increase in oWAR OR OPS throughout their contract:
  - Cain, 2017-2018
  - Justin Upton, 2016-2017
  - Cruz, 2014-2015
  - Victor Martinez, 2010-2011
- 19 of the 23 (82.6%) saw a decrease in both oWAR AND OPS, and 14 of those 19 (60.9% of all the free agents, 73.7% of the 19), saw an decrease by 2.0 or more in WAR or 0.2 or more in OPS
- Only 7 of the 23, or 30.4% were under 30 as a free agent
  Of those 7, 6 saw a decrease in OPS AND oWAR
- Only Justin Upton saw an increase in OPS, while none of the 7 saw an increase in WAR
- Harper and Machado both had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0 in 2018. 12 of these 23 free agents also had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0. Of the 12:
  - 2 saw an increase in both oWAR and OPS
  - 1 saw an increase in OPS
  - 9 saw a decrease in both
- Harper and Machado both apparently want over $250 million. Only 1 free agent hitter since 2006 (Alex Rodriguez, 10 years, $275 million) received that much, and he saw a significant decrease in both oWAR and OPS the next year. Robinson Cano (10 years, $240 million) made almost that much and saw a mild to moderate decrease.
Of the 17 free agent pitchers since 2006 who were Top 50 in pWAR and signed for at least $12 million/year and $45 million total:
- Only 1 (Max Scherzer) saw an improvement in pWAR AND ERA the next year
- Only 2, or 11.8%, saw an improvement in pWAR OR ERA the next year:
  - Scherzer, 2014-2015
  - Jon Lester, 2014-2015
- 15 of the 17 (88.2%) saw a decline in pWAR AND ERA. 12 of them (80% of the 15, 70.6% of of all the free agents) saw a decrease in ERA or pWAR by 2.0+
- Only 5 of the 17 were under 30 at the end of their first year of the new contract (Barry Zito, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto). Only 2 of the 5 (Scherzer and Lester) saw an increase in pWAR or ERA
- None of these free agent pitchers were paid anything close to $250 million. The largest of their contracts went to:
  - David Price, 2015-2016 (7 years, $217 million)
  - Max Scherzer, 2014-2015 (7 years, $210 million)
  - Zack Greinke, 2015-2016 (6 years, $206.5 million)
  - Of these 3, only Scherzer saw an improvement in pWAR OR ERA

The Verdict

Very few of the free agents since 2006 saw their WAR, OPS, or ERA improve on their new contract. You have to take into consideration that Harper and Machado are younger than any of these free agents. However, 3 of the 4 free agent batters who saw an increase in WAR or OPS were actually 30 or older. This may be due to the fact that it’s easier to judge an older free agent. But both Harper and Machado entered the league as teenagers and have proven themselves throughout the years. Finding the right young free agent is hard, as it’s not everyday that two proven 26-year old sluggers hit the open market in one off-season. I also saw different results among free agent pitchers, as both pitchers who saw either their ERA or WAR improve on their new contract were under 30. Plus, both of the free agent batters who saw their stats improve had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0 the year before signing, just like Harper and Machado did in 2018. However, it’s not like the teams in the market for Harper and Machado necessarily expect better stats throughout their new contract, especially if they’re looking to sign 8-12 year deals. Some might not even expect improvement from 2018 to 2019. But you should expect your $300 million dollar free agent to improve the next year.

The real question is, should anyone (even the Dodgers) pay Harper or Machado $300 million? Similar contracts that have been signed in the last 10-12 years have not ended up working out so well. Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $275 million deal with the Yankees in 2008 (the most among the free agents I researched). He was a star player for the Yankees early on in the contract, but his stats saw a decline in Year 1 of the contract, and by 2015, his stats had declined significantly. Maybe the steroids had something to do with it (2014 was the year he missed for steroids), but he was no longer the same A-Rod when he returned from his suspension, and he ended up retiring the year before his contract expired.

The only other free agent batter who even came close to receiving that kind of contract was 2B Robinson Cano, who signed for 10 years, $240 million with the Mariners in 2014. Things have worked out in the first half of his contract, but he didn’t quite play at the level he did with the Yankees. Who knows, maybe he will improve after being traded to the Mets and returning to New York City, but so far, he has begun to slowly decline during his new contract. He’s still a key piece in the lineup, but he made even more of an impact with the Yanks.

Harper and Machado are a unique situation, but it would be silly to give them $300 million only for them to decline significantly. I can’t see any team giving Harper or Machado much more than A-Rod without regretting it later. They are younger and Harper nearly won the Triple Crown in 2015, so maybe they’re worth a little more, but not $300 million. I don’t think Machado is worth more than A-Rod, and his attitude has turned some teams off. I think he goes to the White Sox, but it would be ridiculous to give him much more than $25 million/year. A 10 year, $260 million deal could work. As for Harper, he may be worth a little more due to his MVP season, and the Dodgers should be willing to bid a little more after their trade with Cincinnati. But he’s still not worth $300 million or more. 9 years, $288 million would be more reasonable. The Dodgers may end up giving him over $300 million, but I don’t think it’s worth it.

That’s all for this edition of Baseball Bits. Stay tuned for more MLB coverage soon, including my MLB 2019 Season Predictions (which will come after the NFL season ends and Harper and Machado finally sign).

Price, Dingers, Lead Red Sox To 4th World Series of Century

October 31, 2018November 5, 2018 Andrew Roberts Game Recaps, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized Alex Cora, Andrew Benintendi, Benny, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Chris Sale, Chris Taylor, Clayton Kershaw, David Freese, David Price, Dodgers, Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Joe Kelly, John Farrell, LA, LA Dodgers, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Mookie Betts, Red Sox, Sox, Steve Pearce, Tony Massarotti

At the start of 2017, when the Red Sox signed Chris Sale, Red Sox reporter Tony Massarotti had said that the Red Sox had a three-year window to win the World Series. If they didn’t win it in three years, it was a disappointment. The Red Sox choked in the playoffs in 2017, similar to 2016. Their choke was followed by a long expected firing of World Series-winning manager John Farrell.

The Red Sox hired Alex Cora, a former Red Sox player as their new manager and signed OF J.D. Martinez that off-season. Cora and Martinez were two of our biggest factors this year. Fast forward 8 months, and Cora, Martinez, and the rest of the team is celebrating a 4th World Series victory of the century thanks to Cora’s smart, proactive managing, the dominance of a streaky, explosive lineup, and David Price’s long-awaited playoff successes.

This season is one to remember. The Sox finished with their best record in the 162-game era, dominated the playoffs and won the World Series. Game 5 was extra special, as Price performed better on the mound than he ever had in a playoff start. Meanwhile, the Red Sox lineup backed him up with an explosive 4 homer day. The Sox hit some of these home runs against Clayton Kershaw, who is regarded by many as the best active pitcher in the MLB.

To start the game, Andrew Benintendi, who has dominated against Kershaw, singled in his first at bat. Steve Pearce, Boston’s unlikely hero this year, followed up with a 2-run homer. This wouldn’t be the last the Dodgers see of Pearce, who was brought on board after the release of Hanley Ramirez. Pearce outperformed Ramirez by far.

Dodgers infielder David Freese struck back with a leadoff solo shot of his own in the bottom of the 1st, making it 2-1 Red Sox. Freese went on to have a 2-hit day and was the biggest threat to Boston’s victory. But after giving up the homer, Price settled down, throwing just 89 pitches in a total of 7.0+ IP. That’s the best we’ve seen his pitch count at in any start this season, regular season or playoffs. Believe it or not, Price was out-pitching Kershaw. That was a somewhat normal occurrence before 2016, but was a complete shocker to Dodger fans in this game. Not only was Price out-pitching Kershaw, but he actually looked like a $31 million/year pitcher.

Kershaw also settled down, but his pitch count was not as solid. The Red Sox lineup quieted down until about the 6th inning. To this point, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez had been in World Series slumps. But both hit a solo home run in Game 5, Betts in the 6th, and Martinez in the 7th. Just like that, the lineup had awoken, and it was 4-1 Red Sox. Pearce added to it with an 8th inning solo shot making it 5-1. Now it was up to the Sox bullpen to secure the victory after 7 strong innings by Price.

Joe Kelly dominated in the 8th inning as he had been throughout the playoffs, striking out three consecutive batters after David Price walked Chris Taylor and left the game.

In the 9th, the Red Sox opted to bring in their ace, Chris Sale, in hopes he would finish the game off strong. Sale proved himself, striking out the side and winning Boston the World Series.

The Red Sox paraded through the city on duck boats this past Wednesday and will look to defend their title in 2019.

My 2018 MLB Playoff Bracket/Predictions

October 2, 2018October 3, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized 'Stros, A's, Aaron Judge, AL Wild Card, AL Wild Card Game, ALCS, ALDS, American League, Astros, Athletics, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Brew Crew, Brewers, Carlos Carrasco, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Colorado, Colorado Rockies, Corey Kluber, Craig Kimbrel, Cubbies, Cubs, David Price, Dodgers, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, J.D. Martinez, Justin Verlander, LA, LA Dodgers, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Manny Machado, Milwaukee, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, MLB Playoffs, Mookie Betts, National League, New York, New York Yankees, NL Wild Card, NL Wild Card Game, NLCS, NLDS, NY, NY Yankees, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Playoffs, Red Sox, Red Sox Nation, Rockies, Sox, Trevor Bauer, Tribe, Wild Card Round, world series, Yankees, Yanks

The MLB Playoff Bracket is set after yesterday’s tiebreaker games, and the MLB playoffs begin tonight at 8:00 PM. Above is my complete bracket for the MLB Playoff Challenge. Below is a brief look at each match-up. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.

American League

AL Wild Card Game

(4) New York Yankees over Oakland Athletics (5)

Oakland’s pitching staff has been better this year, but I do not see their rotation as an elite playoff rotation. The Yankees lineup will tear this pitching staff apart, led by the home run hitting duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

ALDS

(1) Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees (4) , 3-2

The Yankees have given Boston a hard time, so I think this series will be close. The Yankees have been able to dominate against certain Red Sox starters such as David Price. But the Red Sox have the home-field advantage, and they have two MVP-caliber players in their lineup, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. The Sox lineup has the depth and talent to outdo the Yankees pitching staff.

(2) Houston Astros over Cleveland Indians (3) , 3-0

The Astros have most of what they had in last year’s World Series: a stacked lineup filled with youth, power, and speed and a dominant playoff rotation. They come in to this series with a weaker bullpen though. Both of these lineups are playoff-caliber, but I see this series as a battle of two of the league’s top rotations, the Astros led by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, and the Indians led by Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco. These games will be low scoring, but I see the Astros sweeping as their lineup is able to manage the tough opposing pitching more easily.

ALCS

(1) Boston Red Sox over Houston Astros (2) , 4-3

The Astros have one of the best rotations in the league plus an amazing lineup. But the Red Sox have one thing Houston doesn’t. A strong closer in Craig Kimbrel. If their rotation can hold up for a good portion of the series and their offense gets going like it has for a lot of the season, I think they can do something they haven’t done much of this year: beating the other elite teams. The Red Sox have taken advantage of their easy match-ups, but it’s time for them to step it up when it matters.

National League

NL Wild Card Game

(4) Chicago Cubs over Colorado Rockies (5)

The Rockies lineup is very talented, but despite improvement in 2018 that got them here, I don’t see their pitching holding up on the road against a well-rounded Cubs team. Chicago will take advantage of the Rockies’ weak pitching staff, get out to an early lead, and their pitching staff will be able to help the Cubs hold it easily.

NLDS

(4) Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (1) , 3-1

The Brewers rode their momentum to a division title. They have a young, talented lineup that’s mostly a product of the 2017-18 off-season and a huge MLB Trade Deadline. But I think this Brewers lineup is containable, and if there’s any pitching staff in the National League that can contain them, it’s the Cubs. The Cubs should also thrive offensively against a young Brewers rotation that’s still developing.

(2) Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (3) , 3-1

Led by young talent, the Braves pulled out an NL East victory. However, I think they rode easy division competition to this victory. Their rotation is okay, but I don’t see their lineup as playoff caliber. The Nationals would likely be here if they weren’t so hampered by injuries this season. They may have won it all. But the Dodgers can contain a young, developing team like the Braves. Led by Trade Deadline acquisition Manny Machado, Their lineup has the power and talent to give this Atlanta rotation trouble, and their deep pitching staff will benefit them significantly. I see this series as an easy win for the Dodgers.

NLCS

(4) Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Dodgers (2) , 4-3

This will be a very interesting series. The 2016 World Series champion against the 2017 World Series runner-up. The Dodgers still have a World Series-caliber roster. Their rotation is more than capable, and they come in with a stronger offensive attack this year. But the Cubs have a deep, young lineup, and although they might struggle against this solid Dodgers rotation, I could see them taking advantage of a weak Dodger bullpen. The Dodgers will put up a serious fight, but I think the Cubs pitching staff can contain them for a good portion of the series.

World Series

(1) Boston Red Sox over Chicago Cubs (4) , 4-3

I think this is the year for the Red Sox. Two of Boston’s last three World Series titles were partially due to momentum. The Cubs have a World Series caliber roster. They haven’t seen the Red Sox yet, and they may very well be a better team. The NL was a very competitive league, while the AL was a league of extremes. Chicago’s record may very well be an NL equivalent of the Red Sox’s record.

But I think the Red Sox will ride the momentum they gather in the ALDS and ALCS to win the World Series. Their pitching will need to finally hold it together, but I think they are capable, as long as they can rely on the momentum this talented lineup gathers. It won’t be easy against a strong, well-rounded Cubs team, but I don’t think Red Sox Nation should give up hope.

That’s all for my MLB Playoff Predictions. Stay tuned for more baseball articles.

Live on Boston Herald’s “The Rundown”, My First Sports Talk Radio Experience

July 22, 2018October 10, 2021 Andrew Roberts Special Occasions, Uncategorized All Star Final Vote, All Star Game, American League, Baseball Bits, BITBAR, Blazers, Boston, Boston Celtics, Boston Herald, Boston Herald Radio, Boston Herald Radio Experience, Boston Red Sox, Bravehearts, Bravehearts-Rox, Brockton, Brockton Rox, Carmelo Anthony, Celtics, Celts, Christian Burgoyne, David Price, FCBL, Fenway Family Night, fenway Park, Futures League, J.D. Martinez, Jet Striar, Joe Sciacca, John Sapochetti, Kawhi Leonard, Kings, LA, Lakers, LeBron James, Little League, Little League World Series, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Lakers, Luke Vargas, Marcus Smart, MLB All Star Game, New York, New York Yankees, Portland, Portland Trail Blazers, Rangers, Raptors, Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Road to the LLWS, Rox, Sacramento, Sacramento Kings, Sox, Texas, Texas Rangers, The Rundown, Toronto, Toronto Raptors, Trail Blazers, Will Finley, Worcester, Worcester Bravehearts, Yankees, Yanks

On July 10th had the opportunity to co-host a Boston Herald radio show called “The Rundown” with John Sapochetti and Jet Striar. I was invited by the Herald editor-in-chief, Joe Sciacca, who has been so generous to me these last few years, giving me an incredible tour back in 2015 and also inviting me back twice to do mini internships for the last two summers.

I had first met John Sapochetti in 2015 when I did my first mini internship at the Herald. He is one of their most well-known sports talk radio personalities so I was really excited to learn that I would be his guest co-host.

We arrived at the Herald about 45 minutes before the show to discuss the on-air topics we would cover. John greeted us in the Herald lobby and we sat in a break room near the newsroom and the radio studio. I told him about my recent experiences covering the Special Olympics USA Games in Seattle and my experience at the Red Sox game I attended the night before. I had taken some notes at the game that I used on the air later on. I also met his intern, Will Finley, who is also a huge Boston sports fan and specializes in sports research. He had an impressive amount of stats that I found inspiring. Shortly before we went on the air, I met John’s co-host, Jet Striar, an NBA guru and also a Boston sports fan.

006 - After Show Selfie — In the studio with John Sapochetti (left) and Jet Striar (right), my co-hosts for the day.

As I walked into the studio, I also met the show’s producer, Christian Burgoyne. You may hear him make comments in the highlights from the show that I put in this blog post. Moments later we put our headsets on and the show began.

In the first segment, John introduced me to his audience and we talked about some things I noticed at the Red Sox game the night before. After that, I took a quick break while John and Jet hosted a political guest, Luke Vargas. It gave me a breather and a chance to reflect on how I did early on in the show.

When I returned, we talked about the All-Star Final Vote and how David Price has not met the expectations of the Red Sox fan base after receiving a 7 year, $217 million dollar contract. Towards the end of the first hour, we discussed J.D. Martinez. He did not have a lot of suitors and he was underrated during the off-season. I think that made it easier for Boston to sign him and so far the signing looks like the best Sox signing/acquisition since Chris Sale.

Below are some of the highlights from the first hour of the show:

In the second hour, we started with a continuation of our earlier baseball discussions. We talked about what the Red Sox and Yankees might do at the trade deadline and how despite the fact that the Sox may catch a break with their easy schedule ahead, their next big test comes August 2^nd against the Yanks. The Yankees could upgrade their roster by then but the same could occur with the rest of the AL’s top teams, making the American League even more of a league of extremes as I mentioned later in the segment.

During our final segment we discussed some trending NBA off-season news like the Marcus Smart to Sacramento rumor. We also talked about LeBron James’ signing with the Lakers, Portland’s need for another guy up front, Carmelo Anthony, and Kawhi Leonard. At the end of the show, John thanked me for being on then I told him it was an honor.

Being on a live sports talk radio show was so surreal, which is why I’m so glad Christian gave me a copy of the whole show to listen to again and create highlights from the unbelievable experience. I was on air for so much of the show that I had to break up the highlights into two 15-minute segments.

Check out the second segment below.

I’d like to thank Joe Sciacca, John Sapochetti, Jet Striar, Christian Burgoyne, and Will Finley for making this experience possible. Stay tuned for a more baseball posts coming soon including Bravehearts-Rox game experience from the press box. For now, I’ll be taking a week off as I have more broadcasting training at Play-By-Play Sports Broadcasting Camp.

Red Sox @ Yankees May 8-10 2018: Series Preview

May 8, 2018May 8, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized 'Stros, Aaron Judge, AL East, American League, Anaheim, Angels, Astros, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brett Gardner, C.C. Sabathia, Christian Vazquez, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Craig Kimbrel, David Price, Didi Gregorius, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Rodriguez, fenway Park, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, Hanley, Hanley Ramirez, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley, Jackie Bradley Jr., JBJ, Joe Kelly, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, KC, KC Royals, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Miguel Andujar, Minnesota, Minnesota Twins, Mookie Betts, New York, New York Yankees, NY Yankees, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Rick Porcello, Royals, Sandy Leon, Sox, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas, Texas Rangers, Twins, Tyler Austin, X-Man, Xander Bogaerts, Yankees, Yanks

The Red Sox have had it easy in terms of their schedule over the last week and a half. They played the Rays, Rangers, and Royals, taking 7 of 10 during that stretch. But now they face the Yankees, who have won 15 of 16 against some of the AL’s best. They swept the Twins, Indians, and Angels, and nearly swept Houston. They have been boosted by the emergence of Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, and are doing fine without 1B Greg Bird. How will they fare against Boston, the only AL team that still has a better record than the Yankees? They will fight for not just the AL East crown, but the American League crown in this series. They are arguably the two best teams in baseball right now, which makes this intense rivalry even better.

Previous 2018 Results

The Red Sox have already played the Yankees once this season at Fenway Park. The Yankees had even more injury problems and did not have Gleyber in the majors back in mid-April when this series occurred. Despite losing Xander Bogaerts to the DL shortly before the series, the Red Sox, who had started 8-1 due to spotless pitching and an easy schedule, took advantage. They took 2 of 3 in the series. The Red Sox lineup had dominated in Game 1 to bring the Sox a 14-1 win. David Price had a rough Game 2 and left early with an injury. But the Red Sox attempted to come back, and after Tyler Austin spiked the infielder sliding into 2nd, Joe Kelly got revenge when he hit Austin. It ended in a bench-clearing brawl that got Kelly and Austin suspended. Porcello continued a strong start in the 3rd game as the Red Sox won, 6-3. I did a recap of that game when the Sox and Bruins won important games on the same night.

Big Night For Boston: Sox, Bruins Win On Big Stage

How They Line-Up Now

Both teams have powerful, home-run hitting lineups. But both of these lineups have a weak spot. The Yankees have seen several hitters who are usually pretty good slump. Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez all have a batting average under .230. Sanchez is batting .198. It is balanced out by strong seasons from Didi Gregorius and Aaron Judge, as well as early success out of Andujar and Torres. I was never too high on Gregorius, but he has really proven himself this year. The Red Sox do not have reliable hitters at the end of the lineup. Both regular catchers and JBJ are batting under .200, and Eduardo Nunez has also struggled. But J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and Xander Bogaerts have all thrived and led this team.

The Red Sox have the starting pitching advantage, but not all of the pitching match-ups in this series are favorable for the Red Sox. The Red Sox don’t have too much of a bullpen to rely on, either. Craig Kimbrel has been flawless, but the rest of the bullpen has not always stepped it up when the starter struggles. The Red Sox have to rely on either an offensive explosion or a spotless, long-lasting starter to win quality games.

Pitching Match-Ups

Game 1 (5/8): BOS: Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 6.14 ERA)

vs. NYY: Luis Severino (5-1, 2.11)

By no means is Severino going to be easy to face but I could see Pomeranz stepping it up on the big stage here. Once Severino leaves, it will be the offense’s turn to make an impact.

Note: Price has been scratched from his Wednesday start due to hand numbness. I’m beginning to agree with that 98.5 caller who talked about the stress disorder with David Price. Can he handle the pressure of a Red Sox-Yankees game?

Game 2 (5/9): BOS: Rick Porcello (5-0, 2.14 ERA)

NYY: Masahiro Tanaka (4-2, 4.39 ERA)

Tanaka has been pretty good this year, but Porcello has been flawless this year. Moving him a day up brings this pitching match-up into our favor.

Game 3 (5/10): BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 5.29 ERA)

NYY: C.C. Sabathia (2-0, 1.39 ERA)

I like Eduardo Rodriguez. He has very high potential, but C.C. Sabathia has been great when healthy, and I’m wondering how E-Rod will perform under the pressure of Yankee Stadium.

My Prediction: Red Sox Take 2 of 3

Red Sox Report: Red Sox On A Roll Despite Many Injuries

April 16, 2018May 6, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Uncategorized A's, Anaheim, Andrew Benintendi, Angels, Athletics, B's, Benny, Big Papi, Bobby Poyner, Boston, Boston Bruins, Boston Celtics, Boston Red Sox, Brad Marchand, Bruins, Celtics, Celts, Chris Sale, David Ortiz, David Pastrnak, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, E-Rod, Eduardo Rodriguez, Halos, Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Joe Kelly, Khris Davis, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Angels, Matt Chapman, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Patrice Bergeron, Rafael Devers, Red Sox, Rick Porcello, Shohei Ohtani, Sonny Gray, Sox, Steven Wright, Tyler Austin, Tyler Thornburg, X-Man, Xander Bogaerts

(040818 Boston, MA) Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts is helped off the field after he injured his foot during the 7th inning of the game at Fenway Park in Boston on Sunday,April 8, 2018. Staff Photo by Nancy Lane

Can Boston teams sustain any more injuries? First, the Celtics lost Gordon Hayward on Opening Night and later lost Kyrie Irving for the season. Then the Bruins began sustaining a lot of injuries, and although they are still a strong playoff contender, it seems like another player goes down every time somebody returns. And now as the Red Sox are off to a hot start, they are far from full strength.

Even though Eduardo Rodriguez has returned and Drew Pomeranz will be back soon, the Red Sox have continued to lose players to injuries. This past week, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Bobby Poyner, Mookie Betts, and David Price have all missed or left games due to injuries. Hanley surprisingly only missed a game after taking a fastball on his hand/wrist area. He hit a mammoth line drive HR in his first game back keeping his hot start going.

The Rivalry is Back: Red Sox Win In Heated First Series vs. Yankees

The Red Sox-Yankees rivalry is back and better than ever. This year, with the Sox and Yankees likely to compete for the AL East title, expect exciting games between these two teams. It did not take long for the intensity to get going in the first series. There were two bench-clearing incidents in the second game. I expect the tension to carry over into the next Red Sox-Yankees series and likely all of the remaining sixteen games.

Despite numerous injuries sustained by both teams, this was not a series you would want to miss. After a hot 8-1 start, the Red Sox were confident and ready to prove that their strong start was not a fluke. After the Sox blew out the Yankees 14-1 in game 1, the Yankees came into game 2 with a little more fight. They won the game and Yankees DH Tyler Austin spiked SS Brock Holt when he slid into second. Tensions flared and benches cleared.

Another bench-clearing brawl occurred when Joe Kelly retaliated by hitting Tyler Austin later in the game and Austin charged the mound. This one got both Kelly and Austin ejected and both of them have since been suspended. Both players appealed to stay in the series and on the active roster until the hearing. You will not want to miss a Red Sox-Yankees game this year as they are clearly the best 2 teams in the AL East.

By the time this game was over, starters Tanaka and Price were long gone as neither lasted too long. Price had the worst outing of his career lasting only 1 inning. He left after giving up 4 runs and was pulled before starting the 2nd due to a tingling sensation in his fingers. It was a cold night and sports radio talk has speculated Price’s issues were related to the cold, his elbow, or maybe even anxiety. Regardless, the Sox need Price healthy so whatever it was, the team and fans hope it was an isolated issue and he returns to pitching as well as he did to finish last season and start this one.

On A Roll: Lineup and Rotation Have Shown Flashes of Excellence

The Red Sox may be missing a lot of players due to injuries but the lineup has been hot of late after a slow start and their rotation has looked like one the best in the MLB all season (except Price’s bad outing). Hanley Ramirez is on fire despite suffering a wrist contusion this week and J.D. Martinez has heated up after taking a week or so to adjust to his new team. He now has 3 HR and 13 RBI on the season, including a grand slam in Boston’s comeback attempt in Game 2 against the Yankees.

The Red Sox have now hit 3 grand slams this season while they had none in 2017. Mookie Betts has also been on fire all season, batting .353, and Bogaerts was just as hot before his ankle injury on Sunday that got him placed on the 10-day DL. Andrew Benintendi started hitting well at home and is 10 for his last 26.

The rotation has shown flashes of dominance too, and Red Sox starters have pitched quality starts in 3 of the last 6 games. Rick Porcello even had a no-hitter through six on Thursday. The defense has helped the pitching playing nearly flawless all year with only 3 errors on the season. Jackie Bradley Jr. had an amazing catch this past Saturday that has SportsCenter Top 10 of the year potential.

Red Hot Hanley: Ramirez Riding 10-Game Hitting Streak, Is He Back To His Pre-2015 Form?

The Red Sox were expecting another power hitter to support Big Papi when they signed Hanley Ramirez back in the 2014-15 off-season. But a shoulder injury in 2015 limited Ramirez and he fell short of expectations in 2015 and 2016. Hanley looked better in 2017 but without Big Papi, he only hit .242 with 23 HR and 62 RBI. This season Hanley has been off to a great start. He is riding a 10-game hitting streak and he has hit 3 home runs and leads the AL in RBI. He is also hitting .362/.415/.617. You could argue that he has returned to the pre-2015 form that led the Sox to sign him to a very big contract.

After going down with a wrist contusion on Thursday, some speculated that he would not keep this up when he returned. But he was ready to go for Saturday’s game he quieted the doubters and hit a home run in his first at-bat. If he keeps this up, he will remain an everyday starter on the Sox, something that was not a given to begin the season. Do you think Hanley Ramirez is back to his pre-2015 form, or will he cool down?

Injury Update: Who’s Out, What To Expect

The Red Sox sustained lots of injuries this week. Xander Bogaerts was placed on the DL April 8th after hurting his ankle when chasing a ball into the Rays dugout. On Wednesday, David Price left the game but it looks like he won’t miss a start. Bobby Poyner went down with a hamstring injury in the same game as Price and was placed on the DL.

Mookie Betts left Saturday’s game after suffering a foot contusion by colliding with Orioles catcher Chance Sisco while sliding into home. He is now day to day, but he was out of the lineup Sunday.

The good news is that Drew Pomeranz will be returning this Thursday or Friday after a strong rehab start in Portland, giving up just 2 runs in 5 1/3 innings. Relievers Steven Wright and Tyler Thornburg are also making progress in their rehab.

I do expect the Red Sox to stay hot but these injuries could eventually hold the team back, especially with a tough road trip including visits to Anaheim and Oakland coming up. The A’s are led by power hitting out of veteran Khris Davis and breakout star Matt Chapman. The Angels are led by two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani and star hitter Mike Trout. They have a stacked lineup that has helped them get off to a hot start as they lead AL West. The Sox will face Ohtani in Game 1 of the series because their game on Sunday was postponed. Will the Red Sox be able to stay hot against these two teams despite injuries?

Sox Prepare To Face Ohtani In Game 1 Of West Coast Road Trip

The Red Sox will head out west after their Marathon Monday game against Baltimore was rained out and the first game is against young Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani. He has dominated at the plate and on the mound, and he is the probable starter on Tuesday. Ohtani has become known as the HR-hitting ace. He has hit 3 HR and is batting .367/.424/.767 in 8 games at the plate. As a starting pitcher, he is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 2 games on the mound.

Stay tuned for more Red Sox posts coming soon.

Red Sox Report: Sox Off to Dominant Start, But Could Face Tougher Road Ahead

April 7, 2018May 6, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Uncategorized Alex Cora, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brian Johnson, Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, E-Rod, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hanley, Hanley Ramirez, Hector Velazquez, J.D. Martinez, Marlins, Miami, Miami Marlins, Michael Chavis, MLB, New York, New York Yankees, Rafael Devers, Rays, Red Sox, Rick Porcello, Steven Wright, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, X-Man, Xander Bogaerts, Yankees

Welcome to my first Red Sox Report article of 2018. Today, I will be talking about my opinion on the Red Sox this week, and what I expect in the coming days. I will also be talking about interesting recent Red Sox headlines.

Is It Time to Get Concerned About The Red Sox’s Offensive Struggles, Especially J.D. Martinez’s?

JD-Martinez-RedSox-BaseballBits7

Up until today, J.D. Martinez had not hit a home run, and the Red Sox had only scored more than 4 runs in a game once this season. Keep in mind that this is against rebuilding teams, and the Rays only have three regular starters, filling the rest of their rotation with committee days. Besides Xander Bogaerts, who has shown flashes of power in a potential breakout season, and Hanley Ramirez, who is looking to rebound, the Red Sox have not been that good at the plate.

Sure, they had a 10-run game today. So they are capable of hitting. But will the lineup show up when they need to? J.D. Martinez is the most concerning to me. He was here to be a clutch home run hitter, and so far he has hit just 1 home run, which came when the Red Sox had already practically locked in a victory. Despite a 6-game hitting streak, I am getting worried.

Red Sox Rotation Looking Dominant, Sign of Good Things to Come?

The Red Sox rotation has looked great so far, and they were without Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright to this point. David Price has looked like his old self in two starts against his former team, the Rays. But will he be able to keep this up against tougher opponents? I’m sure Chris Sale will be able to keep doing what he’s doing, especially if he pitches to contact more like new manager Alex Cora was hoping for. Rick Porcello also looks like he could rebound, and he has just had two strong starts against the Rays, who caused him serious problems in 2017.

Even Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez, who are not going to be starting regularly much longer are doing well. But like I said, the Sox are playing rebuilding teams, so we better hope that the offense wakes up and the rotation keeps up the good work when we start playing tougher opponents. Things also depend on how E-Rod and Pomeranz do in their return, but if they struggle, we do have Johnson, Steven Wright (who is also hurt at the moment), and Velazquez.

Will Alex Cora’s Unique Decisions Help the Red Sox Significantly?

Cora has been a big part of this team’s success so far. He has made good moves by giving guys the rest they need, helping Chris Sale and David Price get more innings by pitching to contact, and saving their best stuff for later in the year by giving them rest, and only challenging plays when absolutely necessary. I like his conservative style, and he will help the Red Sox, but if he goes too far, he could cost us early on by resting guys when they could be helping the team win. He wants to save guys for October, but early success is key because the playoffs are no guarantee for any team.

Injury Update: E-Rod To Return Sunday, How Will The Injuries Affect Us Down the Road?

It appears that we have done fine without Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Dustin Pedroia so far, but as we face tougher opponents, it may hold us back. However, there is good news. E-Rod will come off the disabled list to make a start against the Rays tomorrow. If he can get off to a good start and is not held back by his knee injury, he will help the Red Sox significantly. We may be able to get away with a 4-man rotation until Pomeranz comes back, especially in weeks with more days off.

But I’m sure Johnson will get starts, and Velazquez may even stick around. Cora’s philosophy has been giving guys more rest, not less. So keeping more starters in the rotation despite injuries may be a good idea. They could even consider sticking with a 6-man rotation to save their best stuff for October, especially when Wright and Pomeranz return. As for Dustin Pedroia, I think we should be fine with Nunez at second until he returns, but when he does, we will be able to give more infielders rest, including a recovering Pedey.

We will need strong pitching from the rotation, as our bullpen has been inconsistent and unreliable. Craig Kimbrel has done well, but the Sox have nobody to set him up.

Will Hanley and Bogaerts Build On Their Early Success?

Xander Bogaerts has been straight up dominant so far. He has hinted at a breakout season by hitting two homers, including a grand slam in the team’s first eight games. He has batted .371/.405/.743 with 9 RBI. I think he can emerge as a 5-tool player, adding power hitting to his resume.

I could also see Hanley Ramirez bouncing back. He led this team during the 2-game series against the Marlins, where Hanley started his career. But he also thrived at Fenway, as he was the hero of the home opener in an extra-innings walk-off win. He has also hit a home run, and now that he is healthy and motivated (he is in a contract year), he will be a strong asset for the Sox. I just hope Hanley and Bogey can keep it up against tougher opponents, especially in their upcoming series against the Yankees.

How Will Michael Chavis’ 80-game PED suspension affect the Red Sox?

Chavis was Boston’s top prospect, and while we have Devers at third, it’s always good to have a strong farm system, and this is a major setback for Chavis, and down with Chavis will go the Red Sox farm system. The Red Sox traded away many of their strongest prospects in a once stacked farm system when working their way back towards contention in 2016 and 2017. It hurts to lose Chavis, one of their top prospects remaining, to a suspension. Using PEDs could give him problems staying out of trouble throughout his career, as players who use steroids have a history of frequent suspensions after being caught. We will also have to see if Chavis is really the same without relying on PEDs.

Led by Rotation, Bogaerts, Devers, and Hanley, Red Sox Start Season 7-1, Hope to Continue Success vs. Yankees and Beyond

I expected a strong start for the Red Sox due to their schedule, but I have been overall impressed with how they have done, and if they stay hot, they could continue to dominate. They have a 7 game winning streak going, led by a strong rotation. The lineup has struggled a bit, but Bogaerts, Devers, and Hanley have made up for the struggles of the rest of the lineup. I hope J.D. Martinez can begin to help the lineup more too.

The Red Sox will face their true test this week when they host their archrivals, the New York Yankees. The Yankees are facing the injury bug right now, and have had depth problems with so many players injured. They have had to force players into starting jobs who aren’t quite reliable starters yet. But they are still a tough opponent, and the Red Sox will have to be at their best to win this series.

That’s all for this edition of the Red Sox Report. Stay tuned for more Red Sox coverage coming soon.

Baseball Bits #1: Only Four Teams To Win World Series with Higher ERA than 2016 Red Sox

August 4, 2016August 4, 2016 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized 1906 White Sox, 1907 Cubs, 1910 Philadelphia Athletics, 1987 Twins, 1996 Yankees, 2000 Yankees, 2006 Cardinals, 2009 Yankees, Baseball Bits, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Clay Buchholz, David Price, ERA, MLB, Red Sox, RPG, Runs Per Game, world series

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The Red Sox have finally had a strong record, but with a tough schedule coming up, can they stay in contention? They have scored plenty of runs this season, but the pitching has struggled. They didn’t make a move at the deadline beyond Drew Pomeranz (who can’t find his groove), and relievers Fernando Abad (who struggled) and Brad Ziegler (who surprisingly has thrived). The Red Sox have put up a 4.33 team ERA this season. Only four teams have won the World Series with a higher ERA. If the Red Sox don’t improve their pitching, could they be in trouble, or could they be the next team. Well I’ve done research to prove my point, and in this post, I will show you what I came up with and what we can conclude about the World Series hopes of this year’s Red Sox team.

Below is a PDF with all my research. I have put together the World Series winning and losing teams’ ERAs and runs per game. Below the PDF are some “Baseball Bits” I found after the research.

Baseball Bits (Update) — World Series Team Stats from 1903 to present — Year Descending — 2016-08-03

World Series Teams ERA and Runs Per Game (RPG)

Only 4 Teams (that’s just 3.6%!) have won the World Series with an ERA over the Red Sox’s 2016 ERA to date:

o 2006 Cardinals (Last To Do It)

o 2000 Yankees

o 1996 Yankees

o 1987 Twins (First To Do It)

Last team to win WS with ERA over Red Sox’s current 4.33: 2006 Cardinals
Last team to win WS with ERA over 4.00: 2009 Yankees
Only 6 teams have made the WS with ERA over 4.33
Only 12 teams have Won the WS with ERA over 4.00, the first being the 1929 Cubs
21 teams have made the WS with ERA over 4.00, just 9.4%!
3 teams have won the WS with ERA under 2.00:

o 1910 Philadelphia Athletics

o 1907 Cubs (1.73 ERA is lowest by WS winner)

o 1906 White Sox

76% of the teams that made the WS with ERA over 4.00 had 5.00 or more RPG and many others were close to 5 RPG
Typically teams that made the WS with an ERA over 4.00 did it in a hitter favored baseball year

The Verdict

In conclusion, good team pitching beats good team hitting when it come to the World Series. If the Red Sox score enough runs per game in this hitter friendly season, they could have a chance to win it all. However, it would’ve helped to trade for a pitcher and it will also help to have pitching improvement, especially David Price and Clay Buchholz. You never know because in the 4 occasions when teams have won the WS with a higher team ERA, it’s been in the last 30 years.

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