Baseball Bits #12: Can Sox Repeat like Few Teams have?

March 25, 2019March 28, 2019 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Special Occasions 'Stros, 2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings, ALCS, Alex Cora, American League, Astros, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball Bits, Blogaversary, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati, Cincinnati Reds, Craig Kimbrel, Cubs, Detroit, Detroit Tigers, FCSN, Federation for Children with Special Needs, Houston, Houston Astros, J.D. Martinez, Mets, MLB, MLB 2019 Power Rankings, MLB Power Rankings, MLB Preseason Power Rankings, New York, New York Mets, New York Yankees, NLCS, NY, NY Mets, NY Yankees, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Red Sox, Reds, St. Louis, St. Louis Cardinals, Tigers, Visions of Community, world series, Yankees, Yanks

Welcome to my annual preseason Baseball Bits article!

If you were unaware, today marks 5 years since I started my Boston Sports Mania blog! The Red Sox were just about to begin their regular season when I started, and just like this year, they were coming off a World Series victory. On my first day, I posted an article titled “MLB 2014 Preview”, which included my predictions for the 2014 MLB season. I still write these prediction articles every year, including this year.

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I call March 25th my “blog-a-versary”, and this year is a big milestone. All of my opportunities are a result of this blog. Most recently, I delivered a motivational keynote speech about my story so far at the Visions of Community Conference hosted by the Federation for Children with Special Needs at the Boston Seaport World Trade Center (see below):

I started this blog to write about my favorite sports like baseball, which is what today’s post is about.

9de8f0c9-6ee9-4ee2-a397-8d905fbe772d — Top: After the Red Sox’s 100th win Bottom: After the Red Sox’s World Series win

In 2018 the Red Sox became the 16th team in the 162-game era to win over 100 regular season games and then go on to win the World Series. They were led by new manager Alex Cora and a new star in J.D. Martinez. But what most Boston sports fans are wondering about now is how the Red Sox will do in 2019 and whether they will repeat. I did some research on 100+ win World Series winners in the 162-game era and how they did in their next season below.

The Research

Baseball Bits #12_ 100-Win World Series Winners – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

Note: In the context of this article, a team who repeats for 2 years in a row is counted for 1 repeat, 3 years in a row is counted for 2 repeats, 4 years in a row is counted for 3 repeats, etc

Only 23 of 115 (20%) World Series winners have repeated
In the 162-game era, only 16 of 57 (28%) 100-win teams have won the World Series, including the 2018 Red Sox
In the 162-game era, only 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox have repeated, with 4 of the teams repeating after 100-win seasons
Of the 15 100 win World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox:9 teams (60%) made the playoffs4 teams (26.67% of the 15) repeated2 of those teams reached 100 wins when they repeated:1976 Cincinnati Reds
- 1978 New York Yankees
2 of those teams failed to reach 100 wins again when they repeated:1962 New York Yankees
- 1999 New York Yankees (repeated again in 2000
The Red Sox did not win the World Series in an 100 win season in the 162-game era until 2018
Another 2 of the 15 (13.33%) lost the World Series:1968 St. Louis Cardinals
- 1978 Baltimore Orioles
3 of the 15 (20%) lost in the LCS2010 New York Yankees
- 2017 Chicago Cubs
- 2018 Houston Astros
6 of the 15 (40%) missed the playoffs entirely1969 Detroit Tigers
- 1970 New York Mets
- 1977 Cincinnati Reds
- 1979 New York Yankees
- 1985 Detroit Tigers
- 1987 New York Mets
Each of the last 3 100-win World Series winners lost in the LCS the next year

The Verdict

Based on the research, I believe the Red Sox have a 20 to 25% chance to repeat. I believe that there is still a select group of elite teams that could win the World Series this year. World Series repeats are less common during the 162-game era as just 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners repeated. However, 4 of those teams were 100-win teams. World Series winners who did not reach 100 wins in this time frame only repeated 12.1% of the time since 1961. That’s more like a 1 in 8 chance. 100-win World Series winners have repeated 26.67% of the time during the same time frame. I think the significance of being a 100-win team helps improve the Sox chances to repeat.

However, as much as I hate to admit it as a huge Boston fan, I am sticking with my prediction that the Sox will fail to reverse the trend of World Series winners. I think they will lose in the ALCS to either the New York Yankees or Houston Astros. The odds are stacked against the Sox reaching 100 wins as well since only 4 of the 15 100-win World Series winners even reached 100 wins again the next year. I don’t think the Red Sox will reach the century mark but will come close at somewhere between 92 and 96 games. A bullpen with no proven closer to start the season helps support my prediction A World Series repeat is unlikely to happen, though you shouldn’t rule it out yet.

Alex Cora did wonders for this team last year, so maybe he’ll be able to recreate the magic of 2018. If he can, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be 2019 AL Manager of the Year.

That’s all for today’s Baseball Bits. After all I have accomplished in the last 5 years, I look forward to creating even better content over the next 5 years. Stay tuned for more soon, including the next portion of my MLB Preseason Power Rankings.

Baseball Bits #11: How Much are Harper, Machado, Really Worth?

January 21, 2019January 21, 2019 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency A-Rod, Alex Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Swarzak, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito, Baseball Bits, Baseball Bits #11, Ben Gamel, Bryce Harper, Carlos Beltran, CC Sabathia, Chicago, Chicago Sox, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati, Cincinnati Reds, Cincy, David Price, Dexter Fowler, Dodgers, Domingo Santana, Edwin Diaz, Edwin Encarnacion, ERA, Guillermo Heredia, J.A. Happ, J.P. Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Paxton, Jay Bruce, Jean Segura, Johnny Cueto, Jon Lester, Josh Donaldson, Justin Upton, Justus Sheffield, LA, LA Dodgers, Lorenzo Cain, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Mallex Smith, Manny Machado, Mark Buehrle, Max Scherzer, Michael Brantley, MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency, MLB FA Predictions, Nathan Eovaldi, Nationals, Nats, Nelson Cruz, New York, New York Yankees, NY, NY Yankees, OPS, oWAR, Patrick Corbin, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, pWAR, Reds, Robinson Cano, Victor Martinez, WAR, Washington, Washington Nationals, White Sox, Wilson Ramos, world series, Yankees, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Greinke

Welcome to the final article of my initial 2018-19 MLB free agency coverage. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may be the Top 2 free agents of the off-season, but how much money are they really worth? Keep reading to find out my take. If you haven’t seen them yet, you can also check out my previous MLB free agency articles at the links below. In February, I may also have some updated predictions on where the final remaining free agents will sign, so stay tuned.

MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Coverage – Tentative Schedule

Week of November 19: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers

Week of November 26: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Catchers & Infielders

Week of December 3: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders & Trade Ideas

Week of January 21: Baseball Bits #11: How Much Money are Harper, Machado Really Worth?

It’s been a crazy off-season so far. The Mariners have completely refreshed their roster, and the Dodgers dealt away Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in one trade. Winter Meetings were not only full of trades, but also free agent signings. Many of the top free agents, including Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Brantley, Josh Donaldson, Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal, and Andrew McCutchen have been signed.

But the top two free agents of the off-season, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, remain unsigned. Harper and Machado are regarded as a couple of the league’s best offensive players, and among free agent batters, Harper and Machado were the Top 2 in oWAR. Both Harper and Machado are capable of making a mediocre team a contender, or making a team that’s already a borderline playoff contender a relevant World Series contender.

Machado met with three teams in December: the White Sox, Yankees, and Phillies. He is likely going to sign with one of those three teams, but he has not made his decision yet, though he has reportedly narrowed it down to the White Sox and Phillies. Originally, I had predicted that Machado would go to the Phillies. But after their acquistion of Jean Segura, I see the White Sox as the best fit. There could be mystery teams in on Machado though, according to several newer reports.

Harper has not met with any teams yet, but the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, and Phillies among others have shown interest. After trading away two of their outfielders and more to the Reds for next to nothing, it would not be smart for the Dodgers to pass on Harper. But I think there’s a chance he’ll sign with the White Sox or Phillies as well.

Although they have some different suitors, one thing Harper and Machado have in common is their demand for a big contract. Harper turned down a 10 year, $300 million contract offered by the Nationals back in September. Machado could also reportedly sign for $250-300 million or more. But are Harper and Machado, let alone any free agent batter worth that much money?

I did some research on some free agents throughout the last 12 years. I looked at free agent batters and pitchers who were Top 50 in oWAR or pWAR the season before they hit the open market who ended up signing for at least $12 million/year and at least $45 million total. I researched their stats the following year. Did their WAR improve or decline? I looked at other stats too, like OPS for batters, and ERA for pitchers. The goal is to gauge how much Harper and Machado are really worth based on how big an impact they could realistically make right off the bat. Keep reading to see my research and some interesting “Baseball Bits” that I found through my research.

The Research

baseball bits #11_ how much money are harper and machado really worth_ (3)

The “Baseball Bits”

Of the 23 free agent batters since 2006 who were Top 50 in oWAR and signed for at least $12 million/year and $45 million total:
- Only 2, or 8.7% (Lorenzo Cain and Nelson Cruz) saw an increase in oWAR AND OPS throughout their contract, and only 1 of the 2 saw an increase in oWAR of 1.0 or more (Cruz, 4.2 → 6.0)
- Only 4, or 17.4%, saw an increase in oWAR OR OPS throughout their contract:
  - Cain, 2017-2018
  - Justin Upton, 2016-2017
  - Cruz, 2014-2015
  - Victor Martinez, 2010-2011
- 19 of the 23 (82.6%) saw a decrease in both oWAR AND OPS, and 14 of those 19 (60.9% of all the free agents, 73.7% of the 19), saw an decrease by 2.0 or more in WAR or 0.2 or more in OPS
- Only 7 of the 23, or 30.4% were under 30 as a free agent
  Of those 7, 6 saw a decrease in OPS AND oWAR
- Only Justin Upton saw an increase in OPS, while none of the 7 saw an increase in WAR
- Harper and Machado both had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0 in 2018. 12 of these 23 free agents also had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0. Of the 12:
  - 2 saw an increase in both oWAR and OPS
  - 1 saw an increase in OPS
  - 9 saw a decrease in both
- Harper and Machado both apparently want over $250 million. Only 1 free agent hitter since 2006 (Alex Rodriguez, 10 years, $275 million) received that much, and he saw a significant decrease in both oWAR and OPS the next year. Robinson Cano (10 years, $240 million) made almost that much and saw a mild to moderate decrease.
Of the 17 free agent pitchers since 2006 who were Top 50 in pWAR and signed for at least $12 million/year and $45 million total:
- Only 1 (Max Scherzer) saw an improvement in pWAR AND ERA the next year
- Only 2, or 11.8%, saw an improvement in pWAR OR ERA the next year:
  - Scherzer, 2014-2015
  - Jon Lester, 2014-2015
- 15 of the 17 (88.2%) saw a decline in pWAR AND ERA. 12 of them (80% of the 15, 70.6% of of all the free agents) saw a decrease in ERA or pWAR by 2.0+
- Only 5 of the 17 were under 30 at the end of their first year of the new contract (Barry Zito, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto). Only 2 of the 5 (Scherzer and Lester) saw an increase in pWAR or ERA
- None of these free agent pitchers were paid anything close to $250 million. The largest of their contracts went to:
  - David Price, 2015-2016 (7 years, $217 million)
  - Max Scherzer, 2014-2015 (7 years, $210 million)
  - Zack Greinke, 2015-2016 (6 years, $206.5 million)
  - Of these 3, only Scherzer saw an improvement in pWAR OR ERA

The Verdict

Very few of the free agents since 2006 saw their WAR, OPS, or ERA improve on their new contract. You have to take into consideration that Harper and Machado are younger than any of these free agents. However, 3 of the 4 free agent batters who saw an increase in WAR or OPS were actually 30 or older. This may be due to the fact that it’s easier to judge an older free agent. But both Harper and Machado entered the league as teenagers and have proven themselves throughout the years. Finding the right young free agent is hard, as it’s not everyday that two proven 26-year old sluggers hit the open market in one off-season. I also saw different results among free agent pitchers, as both pitchers who saw either their ERA or WAR improve on their new contract were under 30. Plus, both of the free agent batters who saw their stats improve had an oWAR between 4.0 and 5.0 the year before signing, just like Harper and Machado did in 2018. However, it’s not like the teams in the market for Harper and Machado necessarily expect better stats throughout their new contract, especially if they’re looking to sign 8-12 year deals. Some might not even expect improvement from 2018 to 2019. But you should expect your $300 million dollar free agent to improve the next year.

The real question is, should anyone (even the Dodgers) pay Harper or Machado $300 million? Similar contracts that have been signed in the last 10-12 years have not ended up working out so well. Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $275 million deal with the Yankees in 2008 (the most among the free agents I researched). He was a star player for the Yankees early on in the contract, but his stats saw a decline in Year 1 of the contract, and by 2015, his stats had declined significantly. Maybe the steroids had something to do with it (2014 was the year he missed for steroids), but he was no longer the same A-Rod when he returned from his suspension, and he ended up retiring the year before his contract expired.

The only other free agent batter who even came close to receiving that kind of contract was 2B Robinson Cano, who signed for 10 years, $240 million with the Mariners in 2014. Things have worked out in the first half of his contract, but he didn’t quite play at the level he did with the Yankees. Who knows, maybe he will improve after being traded to the Mets and returning to New York City, but so far, he has begun to slowly decline during his new contract. He’s still a key piece in the lineup, but he made even more of an impact with the Yanks.

Harper and Machado are a unique situation, but it would be silly to give them $300 million only for them to decline significantly. I can’t see any team giving Harper or Machado much more than A-Rod without regretting it later. They are younger and Harper nearly won the Triple Crown in 2015, so maybe they’re worth a little more, but not $300 million. I don’t think Machado is worth more than A-Rod, and his attitude has turned some teams off. I think he goes to the White Sox, but it would be ridiculous to give him much more than $25 million/year. A 10 year, $260 million deal could work. As for Harper, he may be worth a little more due to his MVP season, and the Dodgers should be willing to bid a little more after their trade with Cincinnati. But he’s still not worth $300 million or more. 9 years, $288 million would be more reasonable. The Dodgers may end up giving him over $300 million, but I don’t think it’s worth it.

That’s all for this edition of Baseball Bits. Stay tuned for more MLB coverage soon, including my MLB 2019 Season Predictions (which will come after the NFL season ends and Harper and Machado finally sign).

MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders and Trade Ideas

December 7, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency A.J. Pollock, Adam Jones, Albert Almora Jr., Alex Wood, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Santander, Baseball Bits, Ben Zobrist, Brad Peacock, Bryce Harper, C.J. Cron, CarGo, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Cedric Mullins, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Corey Knebel, Curtis Granderson, Danny Jansen, Derek Fisher, Evan Gattis, Free Agency, Garrett Stubbs, Gerardo Parra, Harrison Bader, Hunter Pence, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ian Desmond, Jason Heyward, Jerry Dipoto, Jhoan Duran, Jon Jay, Kenley Jansen, Kenta Maeda, Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Tucker, Lewis Thorpe, Luke Maile, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Matt Joyce, Michael Brantley, MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions, MLB Free Agency Predictions, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Pedro Alvarez, Rhys Hoskins, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Russell Martin, Ryan McMahon, Tony Cingrani, Tony Kemp, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Austin, Walker Buehler, Yan Gomes

Welcome to Part 3 of my 2nd annual MLB free agency predictions. Last off-season, things took a long time to get going due to a relatively dull free agent market. This year, that is not the case. We might have the best MLB free agent class in the history of my blog, and it’s bound to get going any minute now. That’s why I’m releasing my predictions in November and December this year rather than January. I wanted to get these out before the Winter Meetings, where a lot of big moves could occur.

Today, I will be sharing my predictions for free agent outfielders, including Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley, and A.J. Pollock, as well as some trade ideas. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.

Below is my tentative schedule for my 2018-19 MLB free agency coverage.

MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Coverage – Tentative Schedule

Week of November 19: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers

Week of November 26: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Catchers & Infielders

Week of November 26 or December 3: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders & Trade Ideas

Week of December 3 or 10: Baseball Bits #11: Big Free Agent Contracts

Note: These predictions were made before Seattle’s trades on December 3 and Pedro Alvarez’s deal on December 5.

OF

Top Tier

The Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Nationals have been as Harper’s top suitors. But if you saw MLB.com’s free agent matrix for Harper, you’d see that the Indians have money to spend and desperately need an outfielder. Harper would be a good investment for them. Brantley, the former Cleveland Indian, will head to Houston to provide an upgrade over the combo of Derek Fisher, Tony Kemp, Marwin Gonzalez, and co.

Jerry Dipoto is not rebuilding in the same way Miami did. They will still sign cheaper free agents, and outfield is a major need. Look for them to add one or two. Adam Jones is a good fit, and Hunter Pence will also give Seattle a boost, as he has not fully declined yet in his upper 30’s. The A’s don’t have much money to spend, but if they’re looking to contend, Andrew McCutchen would be a worthwhile investment who fits well in Oakland. If the Cubs miss out on Harper, A.J. Pollock could be a good fit. Albert Almora Jr. is not a viable CF option in my book, and they could use some outfield insurance even with Ben Zobrist helping out there. Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward have not met expectations either.

Secondary Options

If the Rays want to make a playoff push, they have to be aggressive this off-season. Markakis is an affordable, but elite outfield upgrade option for the Rays. After getting rid of C.J. Cron, they will need to add another bat to the lineup. Meanwhile, Jon Jay could be a good fit in St. Louis. He can share time with the young Harrison Bader in center.

The Rockies are unlikely to bring back both Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez. The rise of Ryan McMahon may push Ian Desmond into the Rockies outfield. They will re-sign Parra for OF insurance though. CarGo could fit as a platoon outfielder in Atlanta. I could see a pretty even time share in the Braves outfield if they add CarGo. If the Phillies miss out on Harper, they will also still need an outfielder. Carlos Gomez would be a good fit. If Rhys Hoskins still gets time in the outfield, they will not want to commit to a top line outfielder like Harper.

Granderson could be afforded by a smaller market team with a need for an outfielder. Look for the O’s to add him on a one-year deal while Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins develop.

DH

Cruz will return to Seattle, who could still use 1B/DH help. The Tigers could use another bat to replace Victor Martinez, and preferably another veteran to anchor the rebuild. Gattis is a perfect fit. The Royals are also in the market for another bat, and Matt Joyce is an affordable option. I have Holliday returning to the Yankees on a 1-year deal to provide insurance for the outfield. Alvarez will head to Minnesota to help out Tyler Austin at first base/DH.

Trade Ideas

Cleveland Indians trade SP Trevor Bauer to the Houston Astros in exchange for RP Brad Peacock, OF Kyle Tucker, C prospect Garrett Stubbs

Everyone says that Corey Kluber is going to be traded. But I think trading SP Trevor Bauer is a safer option. In return, they get Brad Peacock, who could be utilized as a starter or a reliever as well as some outfield insurance in Kyle Tucker. C prospect Garrett Stubbs will provide depth at catcher after the Yan Gomes trade.

Los Angeles Dodgers trade SP Rich Hill to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for RP Corey Knebel

The Dodgers have been in the market for top-line starters including Kluber, but I find this fact ridiculous. They have an abundance of starters! Clayton Kershaw is still here, Walker Buehler is a star on the rise, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill are solid mid-tier starters who are returning, and that leaves Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, and Ross Stripling competing for the #5 spot. After bringing Ryu back, they have the flexibility to trade one of their starters, as I see Wood as a completely capable starter, and Stripling and Maeda should get the chance for a rotation spot.

Hill is a good trade nugget, and the Brewers could use some better pitching, so they’d be willing to give up one of their many late-inning relievers for Hill. Knebel will help set up for Kenley Jansen alongside Tony Cingrani and provide depth in a weaker bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays trade C Luke Maile to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for LHP prospect Lewis Thorpe, RHP prospect Jhoan Duran

This is a smaller trade, but worth it for both sides. Jays C Danny Jansen is MLB ready and can split time with C Russell Martin. That puts C Luke Maile in an awkward position. If they trade him to Minnesota, who needs a backup catcher, they could get some valuable pitching prospects to boost a weak rotation down the road.

That’s all for my MLB free agency predictions. But my Baseball Bits on overly expensive free agents is up next. Stay tuned.

Baseball Bits #10: Not many 100 Win Teams win World Series

September 12, 2018September 12, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized A's, American League, Astros, Athletics, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball Bits, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Colorado Rockies, Cubs, Dodgers, Houston, Houston Astros, Jays, LA, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, National League, Nationals, Nats, New York, New York Yankees, O's, Oakland Athletics, Orioles, Red Sox, Rockies, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington, Washington Nationals, world series, Yankees

As I publish this post, the Sox need only one win to reach 100 for the first time since 1946. Last year, 3 of the 6 division winners were 100-win teams. But what does this mean for the Red Sox hopes for the post season success?

The American League is a league of extremes. 3 teams in the AL are on pace to win 100 games this year and 1 more is on pace to be very close. But there are a lot of teams in the American League who are on pace for close to 100 losses. The Orioles have already lost 103 games and most teams have 15-20 games left! The 3 worst teams by record are in the American League, and 6 AL teams have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The National League has only 3 teams that have been eliminated so far.

The American League playoff picture is practically locked up, while no National League team has even come close to clinching a playoff berth. It’s likely going to come down to the final week in the NL and tiebreakers may be a factor.

Even though the top AL teams will likely finish with a better record, does this mean they are better teams? I don’t think so. Due to the tough competition, talented National League teams have been challenged to reach win totals of some of the top AL teams. For example, the Washington Nationals aren’t even a .500 team. That being said, I think a National League team could win the World Series this year, giving a wake-up call to the AL because regular season wins won’t mean anything once the playoffs start.

I’ve done some research on every 100-win team in the 162-game era. I wrote down the team, the year they did it, their final record, and how they did in the playoffs. Based on 100-win teams of the past, what are the odds the Red Sox or one of the other 100-win teams to win the World Series? Will these teams choke early in the playoffs? (Note: Considering that there could be 3-4 from the American League, it is unlikely that all of them do). Check out my research below and keep reading to find out what the research says and how I interpreted it.

The Research

Baseball Bits #10_ 100-Win Teams – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

There have been 57 100-win teams in the 162-game era
Only 15 of the 57 (26.3 %) went on to win the World Series, even though 30 of the 57 (52.6%) made it to the World Series.
Since the LDS began, there have only been 26 100-win teams. 12 of them (46.15%) lost in the LDS
13 of the 57 100-win teams (22.8%) lost in the LCS
2 of the 57 (3.5%) 100-win teams missed the playoffs entirely. These two teams both played in the era before any playoffs beyond the World Series
The Red Sox reached 100 wins three times before the 162-game era: they won the World Series in two of those years
However, the Red Sox have yet to have a 100-win season in the 162-game era
The Yankees have had 8 100-win seasons in the 162-game era, winning the World Series in 3 of them
The best team in 162-game MLB history (the 2001 Mariners) went 116-46 and went on to lose in the ALCS
The 2018 Red Sox are on pace to win 111 games, which would make them the third best team in the 162-game era by record behind the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees (who lost in the ALDS)
Each of the last two World Series winners were 100-win teams
There have been 15 seasons in the 162-game era with multiple 100-win teams
5 of these seasons had three 100-win teams – in only 2 of those years did one of the 3 100-win teams win the World Series
The Red Sox, Yankees (on pace for 101), and Astros (on pace for 102) are all on pace for 100 wins this year, and Athletics (98) are close
The best team in the 162-game era to win a World Series went 114-48 (The 1998 Yankees)
The best team in the 162-game era to miss out on the LCS went 103-59 (The 2002 Athletics)

The Verdict

The fact that an 100-win team won the World Series in each of the last 2 years is very promising. There were three 100-win teams last year and three on pace to do it this year, so I think one of them will pull off a World Series victory. But will it be the Red Sox? The Astros just outplayed the Red Sox in their most recent series and won the series 2-1, and the Yankees always give Boston a hard time in the playoffs. You also have to consider how easy the competition is in the American League compared to the National League. Who knows, there might have been no 100-win teams this year if the MLB’s leagues were more balanced.

However, I don’t think the Red Sox will choke in the ALDS, even though 12 of the 26 100-game winners in the ALDS era did. They are on pace for 110 wins. The winning-est team that missed the LCS was the 2002 Oakland Athletics, who were 103-59. But I do think there’s a good chance the Yankees come close to topping the Red Sox in the ALDS, and there’s an even better chance the Astros beat them in the ALCS to advance to the World Series. In the end, I think the World Series goes to one of these teams: the Astros, the Red Sox, the Cubs (best NL team), the Dodgers (always a contender), or the Rockies (a young team with a stacked lineup and drastically improving pitching).

I’ll be going to the game tonight against Toronto. Will David Price lead us to our 100th victory? We’ll all find out tonight.

UPDATE: I just witnessed Red Sox history! The Red Sox have reached 100 wins. Hopefully they become the 16th 100-win team in the 162-game era to win the World Series.

Live on Boston Herald’s “The Rundown”, My First Sports Talk Radio Experience

July 22, 2018October 10, 2021 Andrew Roberts Special Occasions, Uncategorized All Star Final Vote, All Star Game, American League, Baseball Bits, BITBAR, Blazers, Boston, Boston Celtics, Boston Herald, Boston Herald Radio, Boston Herald Radio Experience, Boston Red Sox, Bravehearts, Bravehearts-Rox, Brockton, Brockton Rox, Carmelo Anthony, Celtics, Celts, Christian Burgoyne, David Price, FCBL, Fenway Family Night, fenway Park, Futures League, J.D. Martinez, Jet Striar, Joe Sciacca, John Sapochetti, Kawhi Leonard, Kings, LA, Lakers, LeBron James, Little League, Little League World Series, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Lakers, Luke Vargas, Marcus Smart, MLB All Star Game, New York, New York Yankees, Portland, Portland Trail Blazers, Rangers, Raptors, Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Road to the LLWS, Rox, Sacramento, Sacramento Kings, Sox, Texas, Texas Rangers, The Rundown, Toronto, Toronto Raptors, Trail Blazers, Will Finley, Worcester, Worcester Bravehearts, Yankees, Yanks

On July 10th had the opportunity to co-host a Boston Herald radio show called “The Rundown” with John Sapochetti and Jet Striar. I was invited by the Herald editor-in-chief, Joe Sciacca, who has been so generous to me these last few years, giving me an incredible tour back in 2015 and also inviting me back twice to do mini internships for the last two summers.

I had first met John Sapochetti in 2015 when I did my first mini internship at the Herald. He is one of their most well-known sports talk radio personalities so I was really excited to learn that I would be his guest co-host.

We arrived at the Herald about 45 minutes before the show to discuss the on-air topics we would cover. John greeted us in the Herald lobby and we sat in a break room near the newsroom and the radio studio. I told him about my recent experiences covering the Special Olympics USA Games in Seattle and my experience at the Red Sox game I attended the night before. I had taken some notes at the game that I used on the air later on. I also met his intern, Will Finley, who is also a huge Boston sports fan and specializes in sports research. He had an impressive amount of stats that I found inspiring. Shortly before we went on the air, I met John’s co-host, Jet Striar, an NBA guru and also a Boston sports fan.

006 - After Show Selfie — In the studio with John Sapochetti (left) and Jet Striar (right), my co-hosts for the day.

As I walked into the studio, I also met the show’s producer, Christian Burgoyne. You may hear him make comments in the highlights from the show that I put in this blog post. Moments later we put our headsets on and the show began.

In the first segment, John introduced me to his audience and we talked about some things I noticed at the Red Sox game the night before. After that, I took a quick break while John and Jet hosted a political guest, Luke Vargas. It gave me a breather and a chance to reflect on how I did early on in the show.

When I returned, we talked about the All-Star Final Vote and how David Price has not met the expectations of the Red Sox fan base after receiving a 7 year, $217 million dollar contract. Towards the end of the first hour, we discussed J.D. Martinez. He did not have a lot of suitors and he was underrated during the off-season. I think that made it easier for Boston to sign him and so far the signing looks like the best Sox signing/acquisition since Chris Sale.

Below are some of the highlights from the first hour of the show:

In the second hour, we started with a continuation of our earlier baseball discussions. We talked about what the Red Sox and Yankees might do at the trade deadline and how despite the fact that the Sox may catch a break with their easy schedule ahead, their next big test comes August 2^nd against the Yanks. The Yankees could upgrade their roster by then but the same could occur with the rest of the AL’s top teams, making the American League even more of a league of extremes as I mentioned later in the segment.

During our final segment we discussed some trending NBA off-season news like the Marcus Smart to Sacramento rumor. We also talked about LeBron James’ signing with the Lakers, Portland’s need for another guy up front, Carmelo Anthony, and Kawhi Leonard. At the end of the show, John thanked me for being on then I told him it was an honor.

Being on a live sports talk radio show was so surreal, which is why I’m so glad Christian gave me a copy of the whole show to listen to again and create highlights from the unbelievable experience. I was on air for so much of the show that I had to break up the highlights into two 15-minute segments.

Check out the second segment below.

I’d like to thank Joe Sciacca, John Sapochetti, Jet Striar, Christian Burgoyne, and Will Finley for making this experience possible. Stay tuned for a more baseball posts coming soon including Bravehearts-Rox game experience from the press box. For now, I’ll be taking a week off as I have more broadcasting training at Play-By-Play Sports Broadcasting Camp.

Baseball Bits #9: Why Mookie Betts Should Still Lead Off

June 20, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized Andrew Benintendi, Baseball Bits, Benny, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brock Holt, Christian Vazquez, Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Nunez, Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr., JBJ, Mitch Moreland, MLB, MLB Trade Deadline, Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Red Sox, Sandy Leon, Sox, X-Man, Xander Bogaerts

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Although he has missed significant time due to injuries, Mookie Betts has had a phenomenal season. As of June 18th, he is batting .340/.419/.699 with 18 HR, 38 RBI, and 13 stolen bases. As his stats show, he is a speedy, consistent leadoff hitter who hits home runs. With stats like his, many have argued that he belongs in the middle of the line-up as he has nearly made the 30-30 club in each of the last two years.

Despite their speed, most 30-30 hitters of the past did not lead off. Instead, they have been middle of the line-up threats. Alex Cora has said time and time again that Betts is his leadoff hitter and I think there is evidence to support the Sox rookie manager’s decision and it goes beyond the Sox best start in years.

Betts has hit 3 leadoff homers just this year (13 in his career). He also bats in consecutive innings or twice in an inning very often. And the more at-bats he gets, the more chances to help the Sox potent offense get going whether it is the start of the game or in later innings. Read below for some more compelling stats that support the decision to keep Betts leading off.

The Research (Note: Data as of June 18th)

Baseball Bits #9_ Mookie Betts Back-2-Back Innings – 2018 At-Bats in Back-To-Back InningsSame Inning (1)

The “Baseball Bits”

In the 54 games Betts has played this season, he has batted in consecutive innings (including one time he batted twice in one inning) 36 times over 29 games
- The Red Sox are 22-7 in these games (.759 winning percentage)
- To compare, the Sox current overall record is 49-24 (.671)
- When Betts plays and does not do it, the Red Sox are 15-10 (.600)
- The Sox are 4-3 when Betts does it twice in one game (.571)
- They are 1-0 when Betts bats twice in an inning (1.000)
- The Sox are 3-1 (.750) when Betts comes up to bat in three innings in a row
12 of these 36 (33%) of Betts’ consecutive inning at-bats have started in the 1st inning
Betts is batting .468/.533/.887 with a 1.420 OPS for all of the consecutive inning/same inning at bats
- He has hit 8 HR and drove in 18 runs in these at bats
- 44% of his home runs this season and 47% of his RBIs this season have been when he has batted in consecutive innings or twice in an inning

The Verdict

As much as the Red Sox would benefit from having Betts batting before J.D. Martinez, creating a 1-2 punch, I think the data shows it’s been plenty beneficial to keep Betts in the leadoff spot. Even with the bases empty at the start of the game or after our weak end of the lineup struggles, Betts manages to come through. He has hit 13 career leadoff home runs and would not bat in consecutive innings this often if he wasn’t leading off. 33% of his consecutive inning at-bats have started in the 1st inning.

The only major downside of keeping him in the leadoff spot is that with the 7th, 8th, and 9th batters struggling, he has fewer RBI opportunities. If the Sox find a way to get another bat or the bottom of the order heats up, that will change. Another option is if Dustin Pedroia can return to his old self, it will help make 1 through 9 stronger like the Yankees potent offense. Either way, it’s hard to argue with the success the Sox line-up has had with Mookie at the top.

The Sox have plenty of speed in their line-up and super utility man Brock Holt 9th could bat 9^th to give them a second lead-off. Holt has been doing well this season, while the more frequent bottom of the order consisting of Jackie Bradley Jr. (another good 9 option when hitting better), Sandy Leon, and Christian Vazquez have struggled to the point where none of them are batting .250 or higher. Trying Holt or Pedroia in the nine-hole could potentially get Betts some runners in scoring position when he comes up, which should make him perform even better. Betts is batting .353 with runners in scoring position this year, but only 34 of his 209 at-bats (16.3%) have been with runners in scoring position. That just shows how desperately Betts needs some end of the lineup support and how Betts’ home runs have helped his RBI total of 38. The Red Sox have a top-heavy lineup.

They have not shown signs that they are already missing Hanley Ramirez but will they need to add another hitter in order to contend in the playoffs? If the Sox 7-8-9 hitters keep struggling as we get closer to the July 31^st trading deadline, it will be something the Sox will have to consider. I hope they heat up but if not, expect to see a post from me on potential additions either by trade or internal or both.

Baseball Bits #8: What The Unusual Amount of No-Hitters Means for Jordan’s Furniture Customers

May 20, 2018May 20, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized 1969, 1990, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2010, A's, Alex Cora, Athletics, Baseball Bits, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Canada, Chris Sale, Clay Buchholz, Cy Young, Derek Lowe, Dodgers, ESPN, Hideo Nomo, James Paxton, Jon Lester, Jordan's, Jordan's Furniture, LA, LA Dodgers, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Mariners, Mexico, MLB, No-Hitter, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Red Sox, Rick Porcello, Sean Manaea, Seattle, Seattle Mariners, Sox, Tony Cingrani, USA, Walker Buehler, WHIP, Yimi Garcia

As they do every year, Jordan’s Furniture, a major sponsor of the Red Sox, is having a big baseball sale. This year, they offered to make any furniture bought between March 28 and today (May 20) free if a Red Sox pitcher or pitchers throw a no-hitter (games shorter than nine innings do not count) between July 17 and the end of the regular season. Should you buy furniture? Will the Red Sox pitch a no-hitter after July 16?

For those of you who are undecided on whether to give in and buy some new furniture, I have done some research about no-hitters based on the fact that there have already been 3 no-hitters in 2018. Based on the data, I calculated the chance of a Red Sox no-hitter during the time that the Jordan’s Furniture sale counts towards (July 17-end of the regular season). You can also come to your own conclusions, as I have provided my official data below. I looked at every regular season no-hitter since 1990 (according to ESPN) and tallied up all the no-hitters each year. I split it into no-hitters before July 17 and after July 16, and I also looked at how many were thrown by Red Sox pitchers.

The Research

I have provided 5 PDFs with my research:

No-Hitters By Year After 7/16: Baseball Bits #8_ No-Hitters – After

No-Hitters By Year Before 7/17: Baseball Bits #8_ No-Hitters – Before

All No-Hitters By Year: Baseball Bits #8_ No-Hitters – All

Summary Pivot Table: Baseball Bits #8_ No-Hitters – Summary Pivot

List of All No-Hitters From ESPN (Cut out data from before 1990 and during the postseason) with data I added for this article: Baseball Bits #8_ No-Hitters – Master Data (Note: The “Count of No-Hitters” column was just used to help set up the pivot table)

The “Baseball Bits”

Since 1990, the average number of no-hitters per year is 2.79
- There is an average of 1.03/year after July 16
- There is an average of 1.76/year before July 17
- Based on this data, not only are we ahead of the average pace for no-hitters before July 17, we are ahead of the average pace for no-hitters all season
- However, in the last 10 years:
  - The average number of no-hitters/year is 3.6 (2.2 before July 17, 1.4 after July 16)
  - In the last 10 years, we are only a little ahead of average pace for # of no-hitters before July 17, and we are not quite at the average pace of no-hitters/year
Since 1990, there have been 5 other years when there have been 3 or more no-hitters before July 17 – in those years, the average number of no-hitters after July 16 is 2.2
- We have not had 3 no-hitters by May 8th since 1969
- Since 1990, there has only been one time (2010) where we have even had 3 no-hitters by June 1st
  - There were 5 no-hitters that year (1 was after July 16th)
The Red Sox have thrown 4 no-hitters since 1990
- It has not happened since 2008
- 3 were before 7/17 (thrown by Jon Lester (2008), Derek Lowe (2002), and Hideo Nomo (2001))
- Only 1 was after 7/16, thrown by Clay Buchholz in 2007
Just a cool anomaly about this year’s no-hitters: They have all taken place in different countries (Paxton in Canada, Manaea in USA, Buehler/Garcia/Cingrani/Liberatore combined in Mexico)

The Verdict

Based on my research, my previous baseball knowledge, and WHIP of MLB starters in recent years, I have concluded that there is 60.5% (about 3 in 5 chance) of a no-hitter somewhere in the MLB after July 16. The average of 2.2 no-hitters after July 16 when there has been 3+ before July 17 (data based on no-hitters since 1990) has had a big influence on these odds. But I couldn’t say there was a 100% chance of a no-hitter because I cannot tell the future. You have to factor in the fact that although there has been an increase in recent years, no-hitters are still very rare and unpredictable. You really cannot be more than 75% confident that one will occur during that time. I have calculated the chances of a no-hitter by the Red Sox as a 2.82% chance. This was influenced by the MLB odds because I divided those odds amongst all 30 MLB teams based on recent WHIP of starters and what I already knew before my research.

If the Red Sox throw a no-hitter, it will likely be from one of two pitchers. Chris Sale’s WHIP is extremely low, and if he gets into a good rhythm and limits his pitch count, he could toss a no-hitter. However, you have to factor in late-season fatigue that is common for Sale as well as the fact that he often throws too many pitches to go deep into a game, even in the case of a no-hitter. They will probably not keep him in for more than about 150 pitches even if he has a no-hitter, at least with Alex Cora managing. He could start off a combined no-no if he has thrown too many pitches by the 7th or 8th despite a dominant game. He would need backup from an inconsistent bullpen for that though.

I think it is more likely that Rick Porcello throws a no-hitter. His WHIP has been very low this season as it was in 2016, his Cy Young winning year. Porcello is more of a ground-ball pitcher and is usually pretty consistent throughout the season. These traits help increase his odds of a no-hitter, especially if he continues to dominate this season (he is 6-1 with a 3.39 ERA).

However, since it is extremely difficult to predict a no-hitter for any team, I would not recommend going all out buying furniture. If you need furniture, go right ahead, but I wouldn’t spend much more than you normally would because I still think there is less than a 3% chance that the Red Sox pitch a no-hitter.

Sources

“MLB No-Hitters.” ESPN, ESPN Internet Ventures, http://www.espn.com/mlb/history/nohitters.

Red Sox Report: Sox Slowing Down, But It’s Understandable

May 6, 2018May 6, 2018 Andrew Roberts Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Uncategorized 'Stros, A's, Aaron Hicks, Anaheim, Angels, Astros, Athletics, Austin Maddox, Baseball Bits, Blue Jays, Bobby Poyner, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Brock Holt, C.C. Sabathia, Chris Sale, Christian Vazquez, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Rodriguez, fenway Park, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Hanley Ramirez, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jays, Joe Kelly, Johnny Mize, Jordan Montgomery, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, KC Royals, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Manny Machado, Marathon Monday, Marco Hernandez, Minnesota, Minnesota Twins, MLB, Mookie Betts, New York, New York Yankees, Oakland, Oakland Athletics, Paw Sox, Pawtucket, Pawtucket Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Red Sox Report, Royals, Sammy Sosa, Sandy Leon, Sean Manaea, Sox, Steven Wright, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Rays, Ted Williams, Texas, Texas Rangers, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Twins, Tyler Thornburg, world series, Xander Bogaerts, Yankee Stadium, Yankees, Yanks

When the Red Sox began the season 17-2, I knew they would not be able to finish the season going at that pace. So it is understandable that the Red Sox have gone 8-7 in their last 15 games. It does not mean the Red Sox are a fluke. They have still shown signs in the last 14 games that they are capable contenders. But they cannot win every game, and 8 to 10-game winning streaks interrupted by just a loss or two is not realistic for any team to maintain.

But Mookie Betts is still on fire, and Hanley Ramirez has still put up much better numbers to start 2018. J.D. Martinez has also begun to heat up. Betts has gotten to the point in his hot streak where he’s breaking HR records. We will look at Betts’ records, the cooling off of the Red Sox, and much more in this edition of the Red Sox Report.

Red Sox Beginning to Cool Off, But It’s Not a Major Concern

As I said above, although the Sox have cooled off, the Red Sox have still shown qualities of an elite playoff contender. I still think they have the potential to make a deep run this year. What concerns me a little bit is who they have been losing to. They lost a series to the Rays to start their most recent homestand. Tampa barely has a starting rotation. But even a blind squirrel eventually finds an acorn. They also struggled and got no-hit against the Athletics. The A’s are not terrible, they have a powerful young lineup and an improving rotation. But after a 17-2 start, I did not expect A’s SP Sean Manaea to no-hit the Red Sox. It shows that our lineup is very streaky, feast or famine.

Struggles against the mediocre teams is a problem, but the Red Sox have been pretty good against tough opponents like the Angels and Blue Jays. What the Red Sox need right now is to be competitive against playoff contenders. If they continue to prove that they are capable of that, I will be much more confident in their World Series chances. But if they cannot show up against subpar teams, how will they be able to continue to thrive against contenders?

Sox Lineup Has Been Streaky But Has High Ceiling

The Red Sox lineup has really struggled at times. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their 9 losses so far. But when the lineup is on a good streak, it can carry the team. At its best, this lineup could probably carry the Red Sox all the way to the World Series. But several guys have failed to come through in recent weeks. Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all batting under .200, and Eduardo Nunez hasn’t looked like the same guy that boosted the Red Sox lineup on the brink of contention. Everyone in this lineup has struggled at some point this season.

But when on a hot streak, this lineup can take the league by storm. There were several hot hitters that led us to our amazing start, and a few of our hitters are still on fire. J.D. Martinez is 21 for his last 47 (.447) and has hit 3 dingers in that span. Mookie Betts has been on fire all season. Read more about Betts’ hot streak in the next section.

Mookie Betts Still On Fire, Now He’s Making History

Betts is batting .352 (5th in the league) with 13 home runs (leading the league) and a 1.257 OPS (leading the league) on the season. In addition, he’s 12 for his last 23 (.522). He has hit 11 of the homers in his last 15 games and has had two 3 HR games this season (one soon after Marathon Monday in Anaheim, and another at Fenway this week against the Royals). It’s only the start of May, and he had these 3 HR games within two weeks of each other. He also had a pair of 3 HR games back in 2016. He and Johnny Mize are the only players to ever have a pair of 3 HR games two times in their career.

Betts also passed Ted Williams for the most 3-HR games in team history. Betts is only 25. He has plenty of time in his career for more multi-HR games. Could he become the first person to have two 3-HR games in three different seasons? Could he eventually break the MLB 3 HR game record? It is currently held by Mize and Sammy Sosa (6). Betts is in the Top 10 with 4. Betts is tied for 2nd with Manny Machado for multi-HR games since 2016 (11). Betts and Machado are behind just Giancarlo Stanton (14). Betts is more than just our leadoff hitter. He is one of baseball’s biggest stars. But there is an argument for why he should remain our leadoff hitter, and I look at that in my next Baseball Bits.

Injury Report: Thornburg Begins Rehab, Several Activated Over Last Two Weeks

The Red Sox have continued to be hit by the injury bug. Brock Holt went on the DL in late April with a hamstring strain. Mookie Betts was also hurt for a few days in late April with hamstring issues but has since returned and continued to dominate. He also left today’s game with a wrist injury. But several of our previously injured players have returned over the last couple of weeks. Xander Bogaerts was activated last weekend, and he lost his hot streak on the DL, but he went 3-4 in his first game back and has continued to hit well, batting .303 since his return. Bobby Poyner has also returned from his injury but did not return to the big league roster until May 4th after a stint with the Paw Sox.

Steven Wright has returned from the DL too, but he is currently serving a 15-game domestic violence suspension. Joe Kelly recently returned from his 6-game suspension after the Sox-Yankees brawl in April. Eduardo Rodriguez was also out for a few days on a family medical leave but was activated on the 5th to start against the Rangers. He did not miss a start during his absence. Tyler Thornburg, Austin Maddox, Marco Hernandez, Brock Holt, and Dustin Pedroia are the players that remain on the DL. Thornburg has begun his rehab assignment, and Pedroia has been rehabbing at extended spring training. Pedey is targeting a May 25 big league return. Brock Holt is expected to return next week.

Sox Have Caught a Break vs. Royals, Rangers, But Round 2 With Flaming Hot Yankees Ahead

After a tough road trip, the Red Sox have enjoyed a relatively easy schedule over the last week and a half. They have played the Rays, Royals, and Rangers. Despite having a tough time against the Rays (who have won 11 of their last 14 on a hot streak), the Red Sox have caught a break against the Royals and Rangers, who they won 5 of 7 against. But after that, the Red Sox could have another difficult stretch ahead, starting with a 3 game series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 15, and this was against playoff contenders.

The Yanks have swept the Twins, Indians, and Angels, and took 3 of 4 in Houston. If the Yankees continue to thrive against Boston, they will be proven as serious contenders. But Boston had an impressive 17-2 stretch of their own. Although it may not have been against as difficult opponents, the Sox did take 2 out of 3 when they hosted the Yankees. However, the Yankees were without C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Hicks in that series. They have also called up Gleyber Torres, who has done very well since that series. They have lost Jordan Montgomery and a couple relievers to the DL since the series though.

That’s all for this edition of the Red Sox Report. Stay tuned for more Red Sox posts coming soon.

Baseball Bits #7: Will Martinez Meet HR Expectations for the Sox?

March 28, 2018 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Uncategorized Baseball Bits, Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez

This off-season was pretty quiet for the Red Sox. They did hire a new manager, but besides resigning Mitch Moreland and Eduardo Nunez, the Red Sox did not make a big move until late February. The Red Sox appeared confident in their roster until they signed J.D. Martinez on February 26th. But there was a clear need for a home run hitter, something the Red Sox have lacked since David Ortiz retired. The need grew larger after the Yankees acquired OF Giancarlo Stanton.

But with Martinez on board, the Red Sox may be able to compete with the Yankees in the AL East, a feat that appeared impossible after the Sox lost out on Stanton to their archrivals. This year, the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry is back and better than ever. Despite the fact that the Yankees have the Top 2 home run hitters of 2017 on board, the Red Sox have #3 in Martinez and he can help them compete along with a strong rotation. That’s assuming that J.D. continues to hit dingers with the best of them.

Switching teams, especially to a big baseball city like Boston, adds pressure that can often impact results as it did for David Price. Like I did last year on top pitchers who switched teams to make predictions for Chris Sale, I researched how MLB Top 5 home run hitters perform after changing teams the following season. I only evaluated players traded or signed to start on a new team the season after they were a top 5 HR hitter. This research could provide intel on what to expect for both Giancarlo Stanton and J.D. Martinez. Since Stanton is a little younger than Martinez, could it show that he is more likely to remain elite? Although it is hard to predict the age at which a player will decline, history has shown that for many players, performance begins to decline in their mid to early 30’s.

The Research

The “Baseball Bits”

In the last 100 years, only 33 players have changed teams the year after completing a season as an MLB Top 5 home run hitter
- Only 6 players (18.1%; these guys are highlighted green on the spreadsheet) have remained in the Top 5 in the following season
  - This has not happened since 2003 when Jim Thome did it after going from the Indians to the Phillies
- 15 players (45.5%) remained in the Top 20 but fell out of the Top 5 (these guys are highlighted yellow on the spreadsheet).
  - In total, 21 of the 33 players (63.6%) have remained in the Top 20
- 5 of the 33 players (15.1%) remained in the Top 50 but did not make the Top 20 (these guys are highlighted in orange on the spreadsheet), meaning that 26 of the 33 remained in the Top 50 (78.8%).
Only once before has an MLB Top 5 home run hitter come to the Red Sox (Jimmie Foxx came to the Red Sox in 1936) the year after achieving the feat the year before, He remained in the Top 5 in Year 1 with the Sox. However, this was back in the 1930s when there were less big home run hitters who could surpass him.
Prior to Stanton, the Yankees had acquired two MLB Top 5 home run hitters who achieved the feat the year before on another team. Babe Ruth, who came in 1920 as the Curse of the Bambino began, stayed in 1st place with the Yankees, hitting 25 more dingers than he had when he finished first with the Red Sox in 1919 (he had 115 more at bats in 1920). Alex Rodriguez, who came from the Rangers in 2004, stayed in the Top 20 despite dropping out of the Top 5.
Prior to 1970, big home run hitters were less common, keeping the same guys on top year after year. In addition, switching teams was less common for a superstar back then and the off-season was not anything like what it is now. Of the 9 top 5 home run hitters who switched teams the next year before 1970, 3 remained in the Top 5 but all 9 remained in the Top 20.
Only 4 players have switched teams after a Top 5 home run hitting season more than once. They are:
- Adam Dunn: He remained in the Top 20 the first time he did it, but after heading to the White Sox, he declined, falling out of the Top 100 and hitting just 11 home runs.
- Greg Vaughn: He stayed in the Top 5 after the first time, but after switching teams again the next year, just made the league’s Top 50 in home runs.
- Albert Belle: He did this twice in the span of three years, and he placed between 15th and 30th in each of his first years after. However, it only took one year for him to adjust the first time. After a second time, he declined and decided to retire.
- Rocky Colavito: He did this twice. In his first year after, he stayed in the Top 20 both times, but did not make the Top 5 either time. However, he took just one year to adjust in both cases.

The Verdict

It is hard to come up with a verdict based on this research alone. But based on what I think and the research I have conducted, J.D. Martinez will fail to make the Top 5 again but will hit at least 30-35 home runs and make the Top 20. Some people believe that he could turn out like Jason Bay did for the Sox, but I don’t think that is the case. Based on the research, I think Martinez is a better player (Bay never made the Top 5).

Since 2014, Martinez has been a consistent HR hitter and I find it hard to believe that he will decline too severely after joining the Red Sox. He’s not 35, he’s still just 30 years old. If he does struggle, I think he could easily bounce back in Year 2 or 3. As for Stanton, I think he will stay in the Top 10 if not the Top 5 with at least 40 dingers. He is only 28 and people are talking about him and Aaron Judge as having the potential to become a historic home run hitting duo.

Speaking of rebounding in Year 2 or 3, I think that after a strong Spring Training, David Price could bounce back. He won’t be quite what he used to be but he will at least put up a strong season that will put him back in the conversation when it comes to elite starters. With Opening Day tomorrow, comment with your Red Sox thoughts.

500th Post Special: My ‘Super Sarge Salute’ Tour of WBZ

November 12, 2017November 12, 2017 Andrew Roberts Special Occasions, Uncategorized 98.5 The Sports Hub, Barry Burbank, Baseball Bits, Big Bang Theory, Boston Herald, Bruins, Bruins.com, CBS, CBS Boston, Charlie Bergeron, Dan Roche, David Wade, Families First, Mike Felger, mike riley, Mike Sarge Riley, Mr. Sid, New England, New England Patriots, Patriots, Pats, Steve Burton, Tony Massarotti, WBZ, WBZ 1030, WBZ News, WSBK, Young Sheldon

Wow, it feels like yesterday when I started my website. Today marks my 500th post. I’ve had some awesome experiences along the way. I was a guest writer for Bruins.com, had a 3-day internship at the Boston Herald, had my “Baseball Bits” quoted on Felger & Mazz on 98.5 The Sports Hub, did some sample recordings at 98.5, and was the co-MC of the Flutie Foundation 5K where I handed out awards with Doug Flutie. Recently, I attended a 98.5 Patriots charity event for Families First at Mr. Sid and met Mike ‘Sarge’ Riley, a sports reporter for 98.5 and WBZ 1030 AM Radio. He invited me for a tour of WBZ that would be known as the ”Super Sarge Salute.”

Yesterday Sarge gave me and my family an all-access tour of WBZ Studios, home of WBZ-TV, WSBK-TV, and WBZ 1030 AM Radio. When I first walked in, I noticed images of some of my favorite WBZ Newscasters like Steve Burton, Dan Roche, Barry Burbank and David Wade. I even saw digital posters of two of my favorite CBS shows, Young Sheldon and The Big Bang Theory.

Sarge greeted us in the lobby and we began our tour. He told us about the history of the station. It started as a radio station in 1921. It was one of the first radio stations in the country and the first in New England. In 1948, WBZ-TV began airing.

Me in front of a vintage radio and television.

First, we went to the Sports News anchors’ offices that included offices for Steve Burton and Dan Roche. They had sports pictures all over the walls and it felt like being inside a miniature Boston sports hall of fame!

After that, we entered the huge newsroom. TV reporters were on one side and radio reporters on the other. The TV side was quiet but the radio side is always busy. I got to meet Charlie Bergeron, another WBZ Radio sports reporter who I had just heard on the radio on the way to the studio. He took the time to tell me about the specifics of his job and show me the sports update script he was currently working on. I even got to go into the studio to watch his next live broadcast!

Next, I met the radio traffic reporters and saw a live image of the current traffic, which was noticeably quieter during the weekend. I also saw part of their script for their next report. After the newsroom, we visited a huge control room. Sarge said that even he’s overwhelmed by it.

Then came the best part of my tour. We got to visit both TV studios. The first one we visited was mainly used as a backup studio but they did traffic reports there when the other studio was being renovated.

Me on the stage of the old studio.

My brother Ryan in the studio audience cheering me on.

Me on the left on the stage of the old studio and my brother Ryan on the right cheering me on in the studio audience.

But when I saw their main studio, I felt like I had just walked into my TV when WBZ News was on.

fullsizerender 5 — Me and my brother at the news desk doing a mock broadcast.

When I first walked in, I saw Barry Burbank, a meteorologist who I had grown up watching. I had previously met him when he came to my elementary school, Peaslee in 2015, but I didn’t get the chance to talk to him until this day.

Then we saw the news anchors’ desk, the couch that was often used during Patriots 5th Quarter, and the area where they filmed the weather forecast. We even saw snow in Michigan on the current radar, and according to Barry, it could be coming our way, but he didn’t want to forecast it yet.

My brother and I were shocked to see snow on the radar.

On our way out, we got a glance at the WBZ Hall of Fame. We continued to listen to Sarge on the radio on our way home.

That wraps it up for my 500th article on Boston Sports Mania. This tour was an unforgettable experience and I’m grateful that I got to learn so much as I continue my pursuit to become a sports journalist. I’d like to thank Mike ‘Sarge’ Riley and give him a huge #sargesalute for this amazing experience.

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