MLB 2021 Predictions: National League

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April is almost here, and when the month begins, so will the MLB season. Just like in my last 7 years writing this blog, I have put together predictions for the season. We only got 60 MLB games last year, but for this year we’ll have a full 162 game season. I just went on my cousin Michael Philipkosky’s podcast, the Master Plan, to discuss all 30 teams, with one episode for the AL and one episode for the NL. Monday, I posted the AL podcast alongside my predictions. You can check out the NL podcast here, and I have my full NL predictions below.

NL East

Atlanta Braves (100-62, #2 seed)
New York Mets (91-71, #5 seed)
Philadelphia Phillies (89-73)
Washington Nationals (82-80)
Miami Marlins (78-84)

This might be the best division in baseball. The Braves and Mets will be competing for the division title most likely. Atlanta has a great duo of star hitters in first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. Their rotation is also starting to come together between younger pitchers like Ian Anderson and veterans like Charlie Morton (signed this offseason). The Mets were purchased by Steve Cohen this offseason, and he told Mets fans that the Mets would leave mediocrity behind them and act like the big market team they are. Cohen hired a new GM, and the team made a ton of moves, highlighted by a trade for shortstop Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco. You also can’t forget that they have Jacob deGrom who’s arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

That doesn’t mean the other teams won’t be competitive. It will be difficult to secure a playoff spot in the NL, but the rest of these teams will at least fail trying. Philadelphia has their flaws, but between outfielder Bryce Harper, first baseman Rhys Hoskins, and a nice top two starting pitchers in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, they have a lot of talent. This should be a somewhat competitive team, but the bullpen among other minor problems could hold them back, similar to how the Celtics have struggled this season in the NBA. The Nationals experienced a World Series hangover last year, and I think they’ll see some improvement in 2021 even though that will be tough in this division. They brought in first baseman Josh Bell alongside outfielder Juan Soto and an amazing rotation. Washington has as much star power as most teams in baseball, but they lack the depth to make a run in this NL East.

The Marlins were the joke of the division back in 2019, but they saw many young pitchers break out and lead them to a 2020 playoff spot. The outfield has really come along as well with Adam Duvall joining Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. I think the Marlins have definitely made progress in their rebuild, more so than the Tigers and Orioles who saw surprising starts to the season last year. However, it will be hard for Miami to make the playoffs again now that they are back down to 10 teams (you never know though).

Even though the Mets and Braves are frontrunners, I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these teams in the playoffs.

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds (88-74, #3 seed)
St. Louis Cardinals (87-75)
Chicago Cubs (80-82)
Milwaukee Brewers (65-97)
Pittsburgh Pirates (53-109)

I doubt more than one team makes the playoffs out of this division. Compared to the depth of the NL East and the star power of the NL West, the NL Central is not in a good spot. I think the Reds and Cardinals will be competing for that spot. The Reds lost starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, but the lineup is still strong and the rotation is still serviceable despite depth problems behind Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo. The Cardinals were already decent last year. Now they brought in star third baseman and MVP candidate Nolan Arenado. That could put them in a position to contend, but I still don’t see them dominating this division.

The Cubs were looking like they were in for a long rebuild after cutting contracts early in the offseason. However, after lots of rumors they decided to hold on to third baseman Kris Bryant and add some rotation depth. If they were trying to rebuild, they halted that effort. If they’re trying to contend, I don’t see them achieving that goal. The Cubs haven’t really chosen what direction to go in, and I expect that they will decide by the time the Trade Deadline rolls around. If not, they’ll be stuck in the middle for now.

The Brewers may have 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich in their lineup, but this rotation is not anywhere close to the other teams in this division. They’ll need to add pitching before they think about contending again.

They’ll still be better than Pittsburgh, a rebuilding team in their own realm. They already traded first baseman Josh Bell and I bet outfielder Gregory Polanco will be gone by midseason. That will leave an inexperienced roster with no sign of improvement anytime soon. They’ll need some prospects to develop before they contend again. That development will start by letting the MLB ready prospects like third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes start.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers (107-55, #1 seed)
San Diego Padres (94-68, #4 seed)
Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
San Francisco Giants (77-85)
Colorado Rockies (65-97)

The Dodgers are another team that will be in their own realm: a realm of dominance. This lineup is highlighted by outfielders Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger but has a lot of talent and depth around those two including Corey Seager and Justin Turner. The lineup isn’t even the best part here. The Dodgers have David Price, Dustin May, and Julio Urias competing for their final two rotation spots! That’s because they have Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Walker Buehler as their top three. No team in baseball has a rotation that can compete with that. The Dodgers are the closest thing I’ve seen in a while to a lock for the best record in baseball. The question is whether the Dodgers will choke in the playoffs like they did in 2017, 2018, and 2019 before winning it all in 2020.

Everyone’s been debating whether the Dodgers or Padres will win this division. I don’t understand how you can have that debate. The Padres are a really good baseball team. In some other divisions they’d come out on top. In this division they seem to be a lock for a Wild Card spot. The Padres rotation went from inconsistent at best to one of the better rotations in baseball. This offseason they brought in Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove to bolster the pitching staff. The lineup was already strong, headlined by third baseman Manny Machado and the young Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop. However, you can’t put them on the same level as the Dodgers.

Behind those two teams, this division isn’t anything spectacular. The Diamondbacks might be the definition of average. They don’t have many standout players, but they have a serviceable lineup and a serviceable rotation. This is a high floor, low ceiling team. They will most likely be close to, if not exactly .500. They should beat up on the Giants and Rockies but cannot come anywhere close to competing with the Dodgers and Padres.

The Giants have improved between developing young talent and bringing in a couple of veterans. This isn’t their year though. Maybe next year they’ll see more improvement and cook up some even year magic. The Rockies have actually regressed since last year. They dealt away Arenado and shortstop Trevor Story and outfielder Charlie Blackmon could be gone soon too. The core of the lineup is beginning to disband and though the rotation saw some success last year, it’s nothing spectacular.

That’s all for my MLB predictions this year. Stay tuned for more baseball coverage soon, including my MLB playoff bracket which I’ll be posting at some point on Twitter.

Predicting the Shortened 2020 MLB Season: AL and NL East

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We are a little over a week away from the start of the MLB season, which will make baseball the first of America’s 4 major sports leagues to return after pausing during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, the first of a three episode 2020 MLB prediction podcast series with my cousin, Michael Philipkosky, was released as a part of his podcast, the Master Plan. This episode covered the AL and NL East, as teams will only be playing divisional match-ups and match-ups against teams in the corresponding NL division.

You can listen to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify using the links below:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mlb-al-nl-east-predictions-for-60-game-mlb-season-andrew/id1495662343?i=1000485080123

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2uxmuwVDzNCjPbhgq6I10H

In addition, I have added both of our standings predictions below alongside my brief breakdown of each of these 10 squads. Keep reading to check that out.

Continue reading →

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

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I understand, this a little late, as Opening Day was Thursday, and the Red Sox didn’t look so great Thursday even though they are a part of this Top 6. But I figured I’d finish this series since there’s only one article left.

Welcome to the final article of my 2019 MLB preseason power rankings. This season, you could argue the Super Seven that was discussed a few years back still exists, except with different teams. The Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Yankees have remained elite, and despite declines by the Nationals, Indians, and Dodgers (probably) , new powerhouses in this league have arised. The Braves should be regular contenders now, the Cardinals could make a run with 1B Paul Goldschmidt here for the long run, and the Phillies should be competitive with Bryce Harper. But Philadelphia isn’t quite on the level of these other teams. So unless the Dodgers do stay elite after all, I think the Super Seven will become a Super Six. I will be discussing those six today and pointing out the Achilles Heel of each team. Click the links below for other articles in the series (I will add them as I post them):

2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings Series:

Ranking The Teams #30-25, My Version: The Bottom of the Barrel

Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

Ranking The Teams #18-13, My Version: Who else Misses out on Playoff Contention?

Ranking The Teams #12-7, My Version: Who has Playoff Chances?

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

I also released my 3rd annual preseason Baseball Bits!

6. St. Louis Cardinals

The Case for the Cardinals

The Cardinals haven’t made the playoffs in a few years, sure. But the veterans they kept around from their last playoff run, like Matt Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina, are still reliable contributors. They have also boosted the team with younger talent, including SP Jack Flaherty, OFs Harrison Bader and UT Jose Martinez, and SS Paul DeJong. After adding star in Goldy, the Cardinals have the tools they need for contention. But how far can they go in such a tough division? They will have to get past their division rivals that are also contending, the Cubs and Brewers.

The Achilles Heel

The Cards’ rotation looks alright and its young core will keep the rotation elite for a long time. But right now they lack an ace. I don’t believe they can be a World Series contender without one. Whether they need a trade to find an ace or someone steps up as time passes, this could hold them back from serious contention and should be priority #1 for GM Steve Keim. Maybe Martinez could be a good trade piece now that 1B Paul Goldschmidt is on board.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 2nd in NL Central

5. Boston Red Sox

The Case for the Red Sox

The defending World Series champions had a relatively quiet off-season. They did retain most of the team from 2018 that won 108 games. But the bullpen has been their biggest issue, even with Craig Kimbrel. Without Craig Kimbrel, there is even more pressure on the rotation to succeed. This is especially true regarding Chris Sale and David Price. After Sale’s extension, both will be expected to to shine every start in order to be worth the money. Each start costs about $1 million dollars. Regardless of this pressure, the Red Sox should at least secure a Wild Card spot if they can’t beat out the Yankees in the AL East. They are still one of several powerhouses in the league.

The Achilles Heel

With Craig Kimbrel on the way out, the closer role is up for grabs. But if you look at the active pitchers on the roster, it’s hard to imagine any of them as a consistent closer. If the Red Sox wanted to repeat, they would’ve invested more in this bullpen rather than focusing so much on the rotation. They need to add a closer unless Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, or someone else steps up soon.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 2nd in AL East

4. Atlanta Braves

The Case for the Braves

The Braves’ rebuild began to pay off last season as their younger players broke through. This off-season seemed quiet, but they filled a gaping hole at third by adding Josh Donaldson. They also brought back OF Nick Markakis, and they have reportedly been targeting a reunion with CL Craig Kimbrel. This small series of moves could make a big difference in Atlanta. These moves, alongside development of OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and 2B Ozzie Albies among other should transform the Braves from solely a division contender into a World Series contender. The Braves are my World Series winner this year. I expect 1B Freddie Freeman, Albies, Donaldson, and others to combine to make for one of the best lineups in the league.

The Achilles Heel

Health is definitely a concern, especially considering the fact that Atlanta will start the 2019 season with two starting pitchers on the IL. Donaldson is also injury prone, and if he goes down, Johan Camargo is the next best option at third base. I don’t trust Camargo as a starter. If the team stays healthy in the long run, they could be serious contenders. Otherwise, they could be in a bit of trouble.

Projected Finish: 93-69, 1st in NL East

3. Chicago Cubs

The Case for the Cubs

The Cubs may have been quiet this off-season, but a healthy Yu Darvish will boost the rotation, the bullpen has plenty of depth despite questions at closer, and the lineup is looking pretty solid. Their decision to move Javier Baez to shortstop full time and put Ben Zobrist at second is very smart, as SS Addison Russell was inconsistent and had some character issues. The Cubs have dominated in the National League ever since their World Series winning year in 2016, but with a health a concern and the division getting tougher, will the Cubs be able to keep up the good work?

The Achilles Heel

The Cubs were unable to do much this off-season, and they could have used another outfielder. LF Kyle Schwarber and RF Jason Heyward are viable starters, but they are very streaky and inconsistent. Albert Almora Jr. is the best option in center field. Chicago should have added another center fielder to start over Almora some days and fill in for Heyward and Schwarber during slumps.

Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st in NL Central

2. New York Yankees

The Case for the Yankees

After pairing new slugger Aaron Judge with Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees underperformed in 2018. Yes, they made the playoffs and won 100 games. But they were overshadowed and eliminated by their bitter rival, the Boston Red Sox. This year, the Red Sox will be without their star closer, while the Yankees fixed up a problematic rotation and built one of the most stacked bullpens in history. This will allow the Yankees to propel past the Red Sox and win the AL East. But in Boston and New York, it’s all about championships, and the Yankees aren’t will have to work for a World Series victory, even with the stacked roster.

The Achilles Heel

The Yanks have some nice pieces in their infield. But if Troy Tulowitzki and Greg Bird fail to stay healthy, they are left with D.J. LeMahieu as their best infielder. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have not reached their prime yet, and Luke Voit must still prove that 2018 was not a fluke. So I’m a bit concerned in terms of infield depth for the Yankees.

Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st in AL East

1. Houston Astros

The Case for the Astros

The Astros are two years removed from their World Series victory, a result of a 5-year rebuild that made the Astros one of the MLB’s worst for a good 2-3 year span. Now, the Astros are still one of the league’s elite teams, but they lost some of their starting rotation depth this off-season, forcing two starter-turned-relievers back into the rotation. They did bring in OF Michael Brantley and UT Aledmys Diaz, filling the hole UT Marwin Gonzalez left. Though Houston took a slight step back this off-season, I still have them as my AL West winners and the team with the best regular season record. Considering the young core they have put together in the last several years, they should be elite for a long, long, time now.

The Achilles Heel

Evan Gattis is no longer on the team, which means Tyler White must be trusted as Houston’s regular DH. This could be a prove-it situation for White, but if White struggles, what then? They could bring Gattis back, or they could just put Diaz back there. They could even call up Kyle Tucker to play DH. This one’s an easy fix, just something to keep an eye on.

Projected Finish: 96-66, 1st in AL West

That’s all for this year’s preseason MLB power rankings. Come back at the end of April for my first 2019 set of monthly power rankings.

Baseball Bits #12: Can Sox Repeat like Few Teams have?

March 25, 2019March 28, 2019 Andrew Roberts Baseball Bits, MLB, Red Sox, Special Occasions 'Stros, 2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings, ALCS, Alex Cora, American League, Astros, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball Bits, Blogaversary, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati, Cincinnati Reds, Craig Kimbrel, Cubs, Detroit, Detroit Tigers, FCSN, Federation for Children with Special Needs, Houston, Houston Astros, J.D. Martinez, Mets, MLB, MLB 2019 Power Rankings, MLB Power Rankings, MLB Preseason Power Rankings, New York, New York Mets, New York Yankees, NLCS, NY, NY Mets, NY Yankees, O's, Orioles, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Red Sox, Reds, St. Louis, St. Louis Cardinals, Tigers, Visions of Community, world series, Yankees, Yanks

Welcome to my annual preseason Baseball Bits article!

If you were unaware, today marks 5 years since I started my Boston Sports Mania blog! The Red Sox were just about to begin their regular season when I started, and just like this year, they were coming off a World Series victory. On my first day, I posted an article titled “MLB 2014 Preview”, which included my predictions for the 2014 MLB season. I still write these prediction articles every year, including this year.

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I call March 25th my “blog-a-versary”, and this year is a big milestone. All of my opportunities are a result of this blog. Most recently, I delivered a motivational keynote speech about my story so far at the Visions of Community Conference hosted by the Federation for Children with Special Needs at the Boston Seaport World Trade Center (see below):

I started this blog to write about my favorite sports like baseball, which is what today’s post is about.

9de8f0c9-6ee9-4ee2-a397-8d905fbe772d — Top: After the Red Sox’s 100th win Bottom: After the Red Sox’s World Series win

In 2018 the Red Sox became the 16th team in the 162-game era to win over 100 regular season games and then go on to win the World Series. They were led by new manager Alex Cora and a new star in J.D. Martinez. But what most Boston sports fans are wondering about now is how the Red Sox will do in 2019 and whether they will repeat. I did some research on 100+ win World Series winners in the 162-game era and how they did in their next season below.

The Research

Baseball Bits #12_ 100-Win World Series Winners – Sheet1

The “Baseball Bits”

Note: In the context of this article, a team who repeats for 2 years in a row is counted for 1 repeat, 3 years in a row is counted for 2 repeats, 4 years in a row is counted for 3 repeats, etc

Only 23 of 115 (20%) World Series winners have repeated
In the 162-game era, only 16 of 57 (28%) 100-win teams have won the World Series, including the 2018 Red Sox
In the 162-game era, only 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox have repeated, with 4 of the teams repeating after 100-win seasons
Of the 15 100 win World Series winners excluding the 2018 Red Sox:9 teams (60%) made the playoffs4 teams (26.67% of the 15) repeated2 of those teams reached 100 wins when they repeated:1976 Cincinnati Reds
- 1978 New York Yankees
2 of those teams failed to reach 100 wins again when they repeated:1962 New York Yankees
- 1999 New York Yankees (repeated again in 2000
The Red Sox did not win the World Series in an 100 win season in the 162-game era until 2018
Another 2 of the 15 (13.33%) lost the World Series:1968 St. Louis Cardinals
- 1978 Baltimore Orioles
3 of the 15 (20%) lost in the LCS2010 New York Yankees
- 2017 Chicago Cubs
- 2018 Houston Astros
6 of the 15 (40%) missed the playoffs entirely1969 Detroit Tigers
- 1970 New York Mets
- 1977 Cincinnati Reds
- 1979 New York Yankees
- 1985 Detroit Tigers
- 1987 New York Mets
Each of the last 3 100-win World Series winners lost in the LCS the next year

The Verdict

Based on the research, I believe the Red Sox have a 20 to 25% chance to repeat. I believe that there is still a select group of elite teams that could win the World Series this year. World Series repeats are less common during the 162-game era as just 9 of 56 (16%) World Series winners repeated. However, 4 of those teams were 100-win teams. World Series winners who did not reach 100 wins in this time frame only repeated 12.1% of the time since 1961. That’s more like a 1 in 8 chance. 100-win World Series winners have repeated 26.67% of the time during the same time frame. I think the significance of being a 100-win team helps improve the Sox chances to repeat.

However, as much as I hate to admit it as a huge Boston fan, I am sticking with my prediction that the Sox will fail to reverse the trend of World Series winners. I think they will lose in the ALCS to either the New York Yankees or Houston Astros. The odds are stacked against the Sox reaching 100 wins as well since only 4 of the 15 100-win World Series winners even reached 100 wins again the next year. I don’t think the Red Sox will reach the century mark but will come close at somewhere between 92 and 96 games. A bullpen with no proven closer to start the season helps support my prediction A World Series repeat is unlikely to happen, though you shouldn’t rule it out yet.

Alex Cora did wonders for this team last year, so maybe he’ll be able to recreate the magic of 2018. If he can, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be 2019 AL Manager of the Year.

That’s all for today’s Baseball Bits. After all I have accomplished in the last 5 years, I look forward to creating even better content over the next 5 years. Stay tuned for more soon, including the next portion of my MLB Preseason Power Rankings.

Top 5 Remaining MLB Free Agents and Where They’ll Sign

February 24, 2019February 24, 2019 Andrew Roberts MLB, MLB 2018-19 Free Agency 'Stros, Aaron Sanchez, Adam Jones, Astros, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore, Baltimore Orioles, Blue Jays, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Bradley Zimmer, Braves, Brew Crew, Brewers, Bryce Harper, Cactus League, Clayton Richard, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Free Agency, Friars, Giants, Gio Gonzalez, Grapefruit League, Greg Allen, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, Jenrry Mejia, Jordan Luplow, Leonys Martin, Marcus Stroman, Matt Barnes, Matt Shoemaker, Milwaukee, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, MLB Free Agency, MLB Free Agency 2018-19, Nationals, Nats, O's, Orioles, Padres, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Red Sox, Ryan Borucki, San Diego, San Diego Padres, San Fran, San Francisco, San Francisco Giants, Scott Boras, Sox, Toronto, Toronto Blue Jays, Tyler Naquin, Tyler Thornburg, Washington, Washington Nationals

Though Manny Machado has just signed a 10 year, $300 million contract with the Padres, Bryce Harper and many other top MLB free agents are still on the market with Cactus League and Grapefruit League action starting up. With Harper rumors really starting to heat up, I will be listing my Top 5 of the remaining MLB free agents and predicting their contracts. Feel free to comment with your thoughts. I’ll start with the obvious #1:

1. Bryce Harper, OF

2018 Team: Washington Nationals

If you’ve been following any kind of MLB off-season news, you’ve probably heard plenty about Harper, so I’ll keep this brief. The Nationals could still be in it to re-sign the 26-year old Harper after a strong start to his career in Washington. But the Phillies appear to be the current front runners. The latest rumors suggest that the Phillies are in Vegas with Harper and may have a deal done by Monday. But earlier this week, we heard the same thing about Friday, and it didn’t end up happening. Will Harper end up in Philly, or will a mystery team swoop in before the Phillies finalize things?

My Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 10 years, $330 million

I’ve heard things suggesting that the Giants aren’t up to offer a $300 million contract to Harper. But now that they are reportedly willing to offer a long-term deal, they could change their mind considering the mutual interest between Harper and San Fran. If the Giants came close to Philly’s offer, maybe Harper would sign there out of impatience. Plus, the Phillies are division rivals of the Nats, and the west coast is closer to Harper’s hometown.

2. Craig Kimbrel, CL

2018 Team: Boston Red Sox

Kimbrel’s agent made it clear that although Kimbrel has been stubborn about his contract, he will pitch in 2019. But with the late inning relief market already settling down, where does Kimbrel fit? Sure, he could re-sign with Atlanta. But you cannot discount Arodys Vizcaino as a closing option for the Braves.

My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 4 years, $64 million

Kimbrel will eventually have to settle for a smaller contract, and if there’s any team who could still use relief help, it’s Boston. The Red Sox have been adamant about finding a closer internally. Who knows, Jenrry Mejia or Tyler Thornburg could bounce back. Matt Barnes could step it up. But I think the Red Sox will end up bringing back Kimbrel as a safety net once his price goes down. Barnes, Mejia, Thornburg, and others can set up Kimbrel.

3. Dallas Keuchel, SP

2018 Team: Houston Astros

Keuchel, like Harper, is a Scott Boras client, and Boras clients have tended to sign late into the off-season, so it’s not a huge surprise that Keuchel is still on the market. But unlike the relief market, there is still a handful of teams that could use starting pitching help. The Phillies, Braves, and Padres have been linked to Keuchel, but the Padres just signed Machado, and the Phillies aren’t going to turn attention to Keuchel unless they lose out on Harper. The Braves would be smarter to sign a lower-tier starter considering their surplus of SP prospects on the verge of a major league career. I see the Padres finding a cheaper option and a surprise team signing Kimbrel.

My Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays, 4 years, $68 million

The Blue Jays may have a decent rotation going with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard, and Ryan Borucki. But they lack a true ace, and could use depth in case Borucki turns out to be a bust or Shoemaker and Richard are inconsistent or get hurt. Keuchel could help Toronto kill two birds with one stone. Why sign a top line starter with so many prospects about to crack the majors? Well, Toronto’s rebuild is a unique situation. With this legendary group of prospects, Toronto’s a pitcher or two away from contending during a rebuild.

4. Adam Jones, OF

2018 Team: Baltimore Orioles

When people think about all the quality players still on the FA market, they think Harper, Kimbrel, and Keuchel. But what about Adam Jones, who slashed .281/.313/.419 with 15 dingers despite a down year? Back in 2017, he put up a .787 OPS with 26 home runs. Though he is getting up there in age, I think he still has potential to succeed for the next few years to come. But where? He will likely end up with a team that needs OF help but cannot afford Harper. Maybe a small market team that hasn’t spent much this off-season could be a fit.

My Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 3 years, $48 million

The Indians spent a lot in 2016 and 2017, but after cheaping up by trading away Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, they may have room for the outfield centerpiece they need. Jones would allow Bradley Zimmer, Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen, and Jordan Luplow to split time among the remaining two outfield spots. I don’t see any of them as full time starters, so this is a good depth signing. Maybe trading away one of their lower-end outfielders after could be a smart move. That way, the Indians will have less crowding and more talent.

5. Gio Gonzalez, SP

2018 Teams: Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers

Gonzalez is a cheaper SP option that teams who cannot afford Keuchel may go after. Gonzalez had a strong year in 2018, making the case for a decent sized contract. But he hasn’t received much interest from teams besides the Brewers, who traded for him at the deadline. Who will end up signing him?

My Prediction: San Diego Padres, 3 years, $39 million

The Padres aren’t going to want to invest in Keuchel after signing Machado. So I think it’s more likely that they save a few bucks and add Gonzalez. You could make an argument that the entire Padres rotation is wide open. There is no pitcher on their current roster that I see as a surefire starter. But Gonzalez will provide the Padres with the rotation stability they need, with the help of another low-tier free agent starter or two.

That’s all for today. Stay tuned for MLB predictions once Harper finally makes his decision.

My 2018 MLB Playoff Bracket/Predictions

October 2, 2018October 3, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Red Sox, Uncategorized 'Stros, A's, Aaron Judge, AL Wild Card, AL Wild Card Game, ALCS, ALDS, American League, Astros, Athletics, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Boston, Boston Red Sox, Braves, Brew Crew, Brewers, Carlos Carrasco, Chicago, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland, Cleveland Indians, Colorado, Colorado Rockies, Corey Kluber, Craig Kimbrel, Cubbies, Cubs, David Price, Dodgers, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Houston, Houston Astros, Indians, J.D. Martinez, Justin Verlander, LA, LA Dodgers, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Manny Machado, Milwaukee, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, MLB Playoffs, Mookie Betts, National League, New York, New York Yankees, NL Wild Card, NL Wild Card Game, NLCS, NLDS, NY, NY Yankees, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Playoffs, Red Sox, Red Sox Nation, Rockies, Sox, Trevor Bauer, Tribe, Wild Card Round, world series, Yankees, Yanks

The MLB Playoff Bracket is set after yesterday’s tiebreaker games, and the MLB playoffs begin tonight at 8:00 PM. Above is my complete bracket for the MLB Playoff Challenge. Below is a brief look at each match-up. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.

American League

AL Wild Card Game

(4) New York Yankees over Oakland Athletics (5)

Oakland’s pitching staff has been better this year, but I do not see their rotation as an elite playoff rotation. The Yankees lineup will tear this pitching staff apart, led by the home run hitting duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

ALDS

(1) Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees (4) , 3-2

The Yankees have given Boston a hard time, so I think this series will be close. The Yankees have been able to dominate against certain Red Sox starters such as David Price. But the Red Sox have the home-field advantage, and they have two MVP-caliber players in their lineup, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. The Sox lineup has the depth and talent to outdo the Yankees pitching staff.

(2) Houston Astros over Cleveland Indians (3) , 3-0

The Astros have most of what they had in last year’s World Series: a stacked lineup filled with youth, power, and speed and a dominant playoff rotation. They come in to this series with a weaker bullpen though. Both of these lineups are playoff-caliber, but I see this series as a battle of two of the league’s top rotations, the Astros led by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, and the Indians led by Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco. These games will be low scoring, but I see the Astros sweeping as their lineup is able to manage the tough opposing pitching more easily.

ALCS

(1) Boston Red Sox over Houston Astros (2) , 4-3

The Astros have one of the best rotations in the league plus an amazing lineup. But the Red Sox have one thing Houston doesn’t. A strong closer in Craig Kimbrel. If their rotation can hold up for a good portion of the series and their offense gets going like it has for a lot of the season, I think they can do something they haven’t done much of this year: beating the other elite teams. The Red Sox have taken advantage of their easy match-ups, but it’s time for them to step it up when it matters.

National League

NL Wild Card Game

(4) Chicago Cubs over Colorado Rockies (5)

The Rockies lineup is very talented, but despite improvement in 2018 that got them here, I don’t see their pitching holding up on the road against a well-rounded Cubs team. Chicago will take advantage of the Rockies’ weak pitching staff, get out to an early lead, and their pitching staff will be able to help the Cubs hold it easily.

NLDS

(4) Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (1) , 3-1

The Brewers rode their momentum to a division title. They have a young, talented lineup that’s mostly a product of the 2017-18 off-season and a huge MLB Trade Deadline. But I think this Brewers lineup is containable, and if there’s any pitching staff in the National League that can contain them, it’s the Cubs. The Cubs should also thrive offensively against a young Brewers rotation that’s still developing.

(2) Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (3) , 3-1

Led by young talent, the Braves pulled out an NL East victory. However, I think they rode easy division competition to this victory. Their rotation is okay, but I don’t see their lineup as playoff caliber. The Nationals would likely be here if they weren’t so hampered by injuries this season. They may have won it all. But the Dodgers can contain a young, developing team like the Braves. Led by Trade Deadline acquisition Manny Machado, Their lineup has the power and talent to give this Atlanta rotation trouble, and their deep pitching staff will benefit them significantly. I see this series as an easy win for the Dodgers.

NLCS

(4) Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Dodgers (2) , 4-3

This will be a very interesting series. The 2016 World Series champion against the 2017 World Series runner-up. The Dodgers still have a World Series-caliber roster. Their rotation is more than capable, and they come in with a stronger offensive attack this year. But the Cubs have a deep, young lineup, and although they might struggle against this solid Dodgers rotation, I could see them taking advantage of a weak Dodger bullpen. The Dodgers will put up a serious fight, but I think the Cubs pitching staff can contain them for a good portion of the series.

World Series

(1) Boston Red Sox over Chicago Cubs (4) , 4-3

I think this is the year for the Red Sox. Two of Boston’s last three World Series titles were partially due to momentum. The Cubs have a World Series caliber roster. They haven’t seen the Red Sox yet, and they may very well be a better team. The NL was a very competitive league, while the AL was a league of extremes. Chicago’s record may very well be an NL equivalent of the Red Sox’s record.

But I think the Red Sox will ride the momentum they gather in the ALDS and ALCS to win the World Series. Their pitching will need to finally hold it together, but I think they are capable, as long as they can rely on the momentum this talented lineup gathers. It won’t be easy against a strong, well-rounded Cubs team, but I don’t think Red Sox Nation should give up hope.

That’s all for my MLB Playoff Predictions. Stay tuned for more baseball articles.

Ranking The Teams 18-13: My Version: The Middle of the Pack

March 26, 2018March 26, 2018 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized Arizona, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Braves, Cincinnati, Cincinnati Reds, Cincy, D-Backs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Mets, MLB, New York, New York Mets, Power Rankings, Ranking The Teams, Reds, San Francisco, San Francisco Giants, Seattle, Seattle Mariners

Welcome to Part 3 of my MLB pre-season power rankings. Last time, I covered the teams that will struggle, but haven’t quite hit rock bottom. I talked about what they did in the off-season, what the case for them this season is, and what their strong point is. I also discussed best and worst case scenarios for each team and projected their records and division placements. Today I will do the same for the mediocre teams, but rather than talking about their bright spots, today I will be discussing what direction these teams are headed in. Some of these teams don’t know which way to go, rebuild mode or contention mode. Read below to find out who these six teams are and where they’re headed.

Boston Sports Mania MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

Friday, March 23: Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: Who’s In The Basement?

Saturday, March 24: Ranking The Teams 24-19, My Version: Teams That Will Struggle

Sunday, March 25: Ranking The Teams 18-13, My Version: The Middle of the Pack

Monday, March 26: Ranking The Teams 12-7, My Version: Who Will Contend in 2018?

Tuesday, March 27: Ranking The Teams 6-1, My Version: How The Best of the Best Line Up*

*I will also have my latest Baseball Bits coming sometime next week.

18. Atlanta Braves

Off-Season Review

After a rebuild, the Braves are getting ready for contention, but their off-season was relatively quiet. They did just add OF Peter Bourjos to help fill in until Ronald Acuna is MLB ready. Acuna looks like he is pretty darn close after a strong Spring Training. They could’ve also added someone at third, but decided not to due to the lack of options. They weren’t able to get their hands on Moose, so they were not in the market for a 3B after that. They could be an interesting destination at the deadline for Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, or even Adrian Beltre. They already have made one trade this off-season, acquiring Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Adrian Gonzalez from the Dodgers for Matt Kemp. Only McCarthy is still in Atlanta, and he will help lead a young rotation alongside Julio Teheran.

The Case for the Braves

The future is bright for Atlanta baseball. But the Braves will take another year or two to become an elite playoff contender. Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, and Ozzie Albies will need more time to develop among others. This young team is led by star 1B Freddie Freeman, who I am expecting another strong season out of. They already do have some other veterans who will help make this team better, but younger players on the verge of a breakout make up most of their core. That will help them in coming years, but they won’t be absolutely amazing in 2018.

Where They’re Headed

The Braves won’t be contending in 2018, but expect a playoff run in the next three years for Atlanta. As soon as their young talent breaks through, they will add the finishing touches they need and run for the playoffs. Personally, I see Ronald Acuna as a potential All-Star, so as soon as he comes up, you can expect big things from the Braves.

Best Case Scenario: Acuna, Swanson, and Albies all break out to help lead the team, the rotation filled with a mix of young talent and experience thrives, and the Braves contend for the playoffs right away.

Worst Case Scenario: Acuna turns out to be a bust, as well as some of their other young players. McCarthy, Teheran, and Freeman also begin to decline, and the Braves finish with just over 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 78-84, 3rd in NL East

17. Cincinnati Reds

Off-Season Review

The Reds stayed put for the most part this off-season, as they have a pretty good roster as is. They have a strong lineup that is better than you might think, and their young rotation is bound to improve in coming years. The Reds didn’t even need to resign SS Zack Cozart. Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, and top prospect Nick Senzel will keep the left side of the infield covered. Scooter Gennett can be trusted as a full-time second baseman after his strong 2017 season, and Joey Votto should have another top-notch season. The Reds are all set. Sure, they could’ve added a veteran starter, but they don’t want to rush contention when their younger players aren’t at that level yet.

The Case for the Reds

After a rough patch over the last few seasons, the Reds will begin heading uphill again. After their rebuild, their future is bright, and they will begin to improve in 2018. Their young rotation should begin to improve. It will be led by Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan, and Anthony DeSclafani while Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo, and Robert Stephenson will also contribute. They can improve further when Hunter Greene is ready. The lineup is all set, and if Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, and Jose Peraza live up to their expectations and Votto, Adam Duvall, and Billy Hamilton keep up the good work, the Reds could have one of the strongest lineups in the league soon enough.

Where They’re Headed

The Reds are going nowhere but up. They hit rock bottom over the last couple years, and they are looking good post-rebuild, so now there’s no other direction they could go in. Expect big things in the coming years, but in the meantime, they will be about as good as the Braves are right now.

Best Case Scenario: Votto dominates in 2018, leading a surprisingly strong lineup, the rotation improves fast (and Raisel Iglesias becomes an elite closer) as the Reds finish above .500 and get ready for contention.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is plagued by injuries and their young talent is rushed to the majors and struggles. The lineup also cannot quite live up to its expectations as Cincinnati lingers just above 70 wins.

Projected Finish: 79-83, 4th in NL Central

16. Seattle Mariners

Off-Season Review

As they have been since Jerry Dipoto took over as GM, the Mariners were very active again this off-season. They acquired Marlins 2B Dee Gordon, who will move to center field so Robinson Cano and Gordon can both start. The Mariners needed a veteran influence in the outfield, and brought back Ichiro to do the same. They also signed SP Mike Leake to add to a strong rotation that includes Felix Hernandez and James Paxton. They aren’t clear contenders yet though; they still need to give their younger outfielders more time to develop as well as their pitching staff and a couple other younger players on the team.

The Case for the Mariners

The Mariners aren’t quite playoff material yet, but they have a shot. In the meantime, they will have a decent season as their younger players develop. They need the younger players to step up their game and help carry the load. Mitch Haniger, Guillermo Heredia, and Ryon Healy are good, but they haven’t reached their full potential. The Mariners need to keep their team young if they want to avoid a full rebuild, but if they also want to contend in that process, they’ll need reliable young players.

Where They’re Headed

The hope is that the Mariners can contend, but it all depends on the performance of Seattle’s prospects and the general performance of the Mariners. If Seattle struggles, or their younger players cannot emerge as stars, the Mariners may need to take the rebuild route.

Best Case Scenario: The Mariners’ younger players break out and help lead the team to the playoffs along with the veteran leaders.

Worst Case Scenario: The Mariners struggle, as their older players decline (including King Felix) and their younger players cannot emerge as leaders. Seattle is forced to rebuild.

Projected Finish: 83-79, 3rd in AL West

15. San Francisco Giants

Off-Season Review

The Giants had a terrible season in 2017, but they made up for it with a strong off-season. They acquired outfielder Andrew McCutchen and 3B Evan Longoria to boost the lineup. They signed Austin Jackson to upgrade the outfield too. However, they failed to add too many good starters, which will hold them back despite a great lineup. They did add Derek Holland on a minor league deal though, so he could crack the rotation, especially with Madison Bumgarner injured again.

The Case for the Giants

The Giants will improve in 2018, but in a difficult NL West, it will be tough to be much more than decent. They are lacking rotation depth after the retirement of Matt Cain and the departure of Matt Moore so they will have to find younger pitching talent. That means it will take time for contention. Their lineup is looking better, but they do not have the same talent of some contenders. They have a nice core four in Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Evan Longoria, and Andrew McCutchen, but beyond that, they are no more than decent.

Where They’re Headed

The Giants are headed in an upward direction. Expect vast improvement from their 64-98 season in 2017, worst in the National League. Then they can work towards contention once they find the young pitching talent they need behind their core three of their rotation. They have a nice lineup now that they added Cutch and Longo, but their rotation still has holes, and the lineup could still use work.

Best Case Scenario: The young guns in the rotation are successful early, the lineup returns to dominance after their recent upgrades, and the Giants surprise many by making the playoffs in another successful even year.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation implodes after lacking depth, the lineup also struggles to perform any better than decent, and the Giants cannot get above .500.

Projected Finish: 85-77, 4th in NL West

14. New York Mets

Off-Season Review

The Mets restored their strong, playoff level roster from a couple years back after a rough 2017. They brought OF Jay Bruce back, signed 3B Todd Frazier to take over third in case David Wright cannot rebound from his injury. 1B Adrian Gonzalez was also added to improve the lineup. Lastly, they boosted the rotation depth by adding Jason Vargas to aid an injury prone rotation. Vargas was with the Mets for a year about 10 years ago. The Mets are in much better shape after a strong off-season.

The Case for the Mets

The Mets face tough competition and may not be able to make the playoffs this year. But they are back in contention with Bruce back and Frazier on board. They have set themselves up for long-term success, as David Wright is unlikely to rebound, and it will be tough to depend on Michael Conforto with his health in question. Maybe they can contend for the NL East if the Nationals fail to add back Bryce Harper for 2019. But this year, they will have to compete for a wild-card spot.

Where They’re Headed

The Mets should be able to make the playoffs in the coming years if they cannot make the playoffs in 2018. They have a nice roster full of young talent and veterans who are still elite and can lead this team down the stretch. Will they be able to make the playoffs this year, or will the competition be too much for them?

Best Case Scenario: Frazier, Bruce, and Yoenis Cespedes help lead the Mets back to the playoffs along with a strong rotation that stays healthy.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is plagued by injuries, the lineup is no better than average, and the Mets fail to get above .500.

Projected Finish: 86-76, 2nd in NL East

13. Arizona Diamondbacks

Off-Season Review

The Diamondbacks needed a new closer with Fernando Rodney gone. They did add Brad Boxberger, but is he capable of the closing job? They also added Japanese reliever, Yoshihisa Hirano. They also upgraded their outfield by acquiring Steven Souza Jr. in a 3-way trade and signing Jarrod Dyson. Other than that, their roster is in good shape for contention in 2018. But in a tough division, will they make it?

The Case for the Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks finally cracked the playoffs in 2017, but can they repeat in a very tough division? They have a strong lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, and David Peralta. I also think Jake Lamb could break out. They also have maintained a strong pitching staff, led by starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray. With an underrated roster, they should at least be able to keep up with their division.

Where They’re Headed

The D-Backs are right on the verge of contention. They have a good future full of playoff runs ahead of them. However, I do not think they will make it this year. The Brewers, Rockies, and Cardinals will beat them out in the wild-card race.

Best Case Scenario: Arizona’s young roster thrives, leading the Diamondbacks back to the playoffs with a 2nd place finish in the NL West.

Worst Case Scenario: The lineup struggles to live up to its expectations after off-season upgrades, the rotation begins to decline due to lack of young talent, and the Diamondbacks end up finishing around .500.

Projected Finish: 87-75, 3rd in NL West

That’s all for this article. Stay tuned for Part 4 along with my latest Baseball Bits coming soon.

Ranking The Teams 30-25, My Version: The Ugly

February 20, 2017February 20, 2017 Andrew Roberts MLB, Predictions, Uncategorized 2017 Ranking The Teams, A's, Alejandro De Aza, Alex Cobb, Athletics, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Bartolo Colon, Ben Revere, Brandon Phillips, Braves, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Chris Archer, Clay Buchholz, Colby Rasmus, Dansby Swanson, Desmond Jennings, Domonic Brown, Drew Smyly, Erick Aybar, Freddie Freeman, Freddy Galvis, Houston, Howie Kendrick, J.B. Shuck, Jaff Decker, Jason Castro, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Mauer, John Mayberry Jr., Jose De Leon, Khris Davis, Kurt Suzuki, Logan Forsythe, Logan Morrison, Maikel Franco, Matt Kemp, Michael Saunders, Miguel Sano, Minnesota, Minnesota Twins, MLB, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Markakis, Oakland, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, Odubel Herrera, Padres, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Philly, Power Rankings, R. A. Dickey, Rajai Davis, Rays, Ross Detwiler, Ryan Howard, Ryan Vogelsong, San Diego, San Diego Padres, Sonny Gray, Tampa Bay, Trevor Plouffe, Twins, Wil Myers, Wilson Ramos, Yangervis Solarte

Each year since 2014, David Schoenfield has ranked all 30 teams in tiers during the preseason. For the third year straight, I am creating my own version. I am out of school this week, so throughout the week, I will be posting my rankings. Today they start with the bottom 6.

30. Minnesota Twins

Off-season Review

Image result for jason castro twins

In the process of a rebuild, the Twins let older players Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Plouffe sign elsewhere in free agency. However, they also lost young pitcher Tommy Milone. They signed veterans Jason Castro, J.B. Shuck and Ryan Vogelsong. These guys are nice veteran boosters and mentors, but are unnecessary signings. The young Minnesota Twins just need a little time to develop before coming back to contention.

The Case for the Twins

The Twins will not contend in any way this year. They are in the midst of a rebuild, and actually have a bright future ahead. The Tigers and Royals will get old and decline which will leave room open for the Twins in coming years. For now, they need to focus on establishing their young players, and wins and losses will not matter for them this year. But in coming years, look for the Twins to finally get better.

The Bright Spot

Image result for miguel sano byron buxton

Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier are getting older, and I’m liking the young talent on the Twins. The younger players they have will do well this year, and eventually bring the team up with them. Third year player Miguel Sano is one guy who could make an impact. He will take a full time job at third base in 2017, and will be a bigger contributor to the lineup. He could be a team leader in the future. Byron Buxton is another player to keep an eye on. Despite a disappointing 2016 for both of them, 2017 should be a good year for Buxton and Sano.

Best Case Scenario: The Twins surprise many, as their young guns bounce back and lead the Twins to a second place finish in the AL Central.

Worst Case Scenario: Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano continue to regress and the Twins finish with the worst record in baseball.

Projected Finish: 63-99, 5th in AL Central

29. San Diego Padres

Off-season Review

The Padres didn’t do much in the off-season. After losing veterans they shouldn’t have spent their money on, the Padres are at a desperate state. They will not compete this season, so it’s time for a rebuild. They did sign veteran Erick Aybar to a minor league deal, but he’s no more than a veteran mentor, and will not lead the Padres to contend. The Padres will focus on building upon their young roster, and if they did that a couple of years back, they might of had a legitimate chance this year.

The Case for the Padres

The Padres may be at their worst ever. While building a young roster, they will not compete this season. None of their starting pitchers are very established yet, and the lineup has some bright spots, but needs work. This rebuild could take a long time, but it’s worth it. If the Padres tried to go for it this season, the end result would be the biggest MLB failure in a long time.

The Bright Spot

Image result for wil myers padres

One investment from a couple of years ago that was worth it was the signing of Wil Myers. Myers has done well for the Padres, and him, Yangervis Solarte and Erick Aybar make up a nice infield of veterans to teach the younger players. Myers will actually put up some impressive stats in 2017. In 2016, he was a Home Run Derby participant and All Star. Myers will continue to put up good numbers in 2017, and he will make the Padres look just a tiny bit better.

Best Case Scenario: Wil Myers boosts the lineup, and the young rotation breaks through as the Padres finish just under .500.

Worst Case Scenario: The Padres have their worst season in history, the young players struggle at the major league level, and the Padres barely endure a dismal season.

Projected Finish: 63-99, 5th in NL West

28. Oakland Athletics

Off-season Review

Image result for rajai davis a's

The Athletics weren’t quite as active as they usually are this off-season, but they did fine-tune their team. They aren’t anywhere near contending, but adding some depth with experienced players will at least prevent disaster in 2017. Rajai Davis recently came back to Oakland. Alejandro De Aza, Ross Detwiler and Jaff Decker were invited to spring training among other veterans. They also signed young third baseman Trevor Plouffe. They filled most of their major off-season needs, and that will help them despite other problems.

The Case for the Athletics

The A’s have a nice mix of veterans and younger players. Once their prospects develop, this will benefit them and they will thrive. But that might not happen for a while, and right now, they’re just going to be considered an old team that won’t contend. If they rebuild a little, maybe they’ll season their young players more and see more success soon. But whether they rebuild or stay put, the Athletics aren’t going to have a winning season.

The Bright Spot

Image result for khris davis a's

Khris Davis was acquired from Milwaukee in the 2015-16 off-season, and since joining the Athletics, he has been their best hitter, and has been a bright spot on the Athletics by putting up impressive stats. Davis was a home run hitter in 2016, with 42 dingers. He drove in 102 runs and got a career best 137 hits. The 42 dingers, also his career best, were enough to tie Edwin Encarnacion and Brian Dozier for 3rd in the MLB. Encarnacion and Dozier are team leading stars, and Davis may be developing to be just that. Davis had more home runs than the Rockies’ star third baseman Nolan Arenado! I also think starting pitcher Sonny Gray could look good in a bounce back year, but Davis is the safest bet.

Best Case Scenario: The rotation bounces back, the lineup finally finds a way to do strongly and the A’s attempt to return to the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: The injury bug hits Oakland at its hardest, and the Athletics finish terribly, with one of the worst records.

Projected Finish: 65-97, 5th in AL West

27. Philadelphia Phillies

Off-season in Review

Image result for howie kendrick welcome to phillies

The Phillies have finally established a young roster, but it will take a couple years to return to stardom. The rotation still needs work but they added some veteran mentors/big hitters to help their case. They acquired starting pitcher Clay Buchholz, and added Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders to the lineup. Now, with veteran mentors to help a young, talented roster, the Phillies could be back to contention a couple of years from now.

The Case for the Phillies

Image result for jimmy rollins phillies

The era of washed up, old Phillies is over. Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ben Revere, John Mayberry Jr. and Domonic Brown are all gone. Now, it’s time for the young guns to take over this team. This puts this year’s team pretty low in the rankings. However, don’t be surprised if the Phillies are the next surprise wild card in 2018. These young players are very talented, and once they’re developed, which will happen over the next year or two, the Phillies will be good once again.

The Bright Spot

Image result for maikel franco

Putting the older guys aside, there are a few talented young guns that have already broke out. Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis and Maikel Franco are already doing strongly. Franco is the Phillies’ bright spot. He is keeping this lineup alive. In a couple of years, Franco could be a superstar. The new environment in Philly leaves him with an important role in the lineup, and I think he will come through in that role.

Best Case Scenario: The Phillies return to contention with an impressive season by a lot of young players.

Worst Case Scenario: The Phillies fail again, and the young guns go full bust.

Projected Finish: 65-97, 5th in NL East

26. Atlanta Braves

Off-season Review

Image result for bartolo colon braves

The Braves are in the midst of a rebuild. The starting rotation is getting old after they added Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey, but the older players are still good. The lineup also includes veteran mentor Matt Kemp. The rest of it consists of young stars and players ready to breakout. Dansby Swanson is the favorite for the NL Rookie of The Year, Freddie Freeman continues to shine, Nick Markakis has done alright in Atlanta, and new acquisitions Brandon Phillips and Kurt Suzuki will help this team improve.

The Case for the Braves

The Braves won’t compete this season, but they’ve put together a nice mix of old and young that could do well in the future. The pitching staff still needs to develop and be fine-tuned, but the lineup is looking better, and could be a lot more powerful this year and in future years. The Braves currently lack depth, but once more prospects break the majors, the Braves could have some of the best hitting in the MLB, with a strong lineup led by Freddie Freeman.

The Bright Spot

Image result for dansby swanson

Some of the older players provide power to the lineup, but younger players Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson make the Braves a little more fun to watch. Freeman really broke out last year, with a stellar performance especially in the 2nd half. Freeman had already established himself as a franchise player, but he really went all out in 2o16. Swanson has a potentially great rookie season ahead of him. The Braves have opened up a spot at shortstop for him, and Swanson will take advantage of that.

Best Case Scenario: The rotation finally gathers itself, the lineup is dominant, and the Braves compete for a wild card in the NL East.

Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is a bust, the lineup doesn’t perform like it should, and the Braves finish last in the NL East.

Projected Finish: 67-95, 4th in NL East

25. Tampa Bay Rays

Off-season Review

The Rays didn’t have a huge off-season. They lost some crucial guys, and they traded away Logan Forsythe and Drew Smyly. However, they added to their pitching depth in that trade by acquiring Jose De Leon. Despite losing Desmond Jennings, they resigned Logan Morrison and signed Colby Rasmus to help fill out the starting lineup. Wilson Ramos and Nathan Eovaldi were also signed but are recovering from injuries. They made a lot of small moves, but nothing major enough to impact the Rays.

The Case for the Rays

The Rays play in the toughest division in the MLB. They have a talented team, but just don’t stack up to the rest of the AL East. They would be a mediocre team in a weaker division. But this is just how it is. The Rays don’t stack up with everybody else. A rebuild is not needed, now is just a big wait. A big wait for the Rays to able to do well again. They have a good roster, but some of these guys are getting old, or just aren’t as good as the other stars of the league.

The Bright Spot

The lineup is just mediocre. The true bright spots in Tampa are Chris Archer and Alex Cobb. Archer struggled in 2016, but is still the ace of the Rays. Cobb has been injured the last two years, but will perform well when healthy. Both of these guys should make a big impact for the Rays in 2017.

Best Case Scenario: The strong rotation leads the Rays to compete towards the top of the AL East, in hopes of a playoff spot.

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries hit hard again, and the Rays look worse than ever, finishing not just last in the AL East, but the whole American League.

Projected Finish: 69-93, 5th in AL East

Baseball season is almost here. This is just the start of my rankings series. Comment your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for my 24-19 rankings. Who will be next on the list? Check tomorrow to find out!

Scouting Report: Atlanta Braves

March 5, 2016March 5, 2016 Andrew Roberts MLB, Uncategorized Alex Torres, Alexi Ogando, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Braves, Bud Norris, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Torres, Dansby Swanson, Emilio Bonifacio, Ender Inciarte, Gabe Speier, Gordon Beckham, Ian Krol, Jeff Francouer, Jhoulys Chacin, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Kendrick, Matt Wisler, Michael Bourn, Mike Foltynewicz, Nick Swisher, Ozzie Albies, Sean Newcomb, Shelby Miller

The Braves are still clearly in rebuilding stages, but have a very strong farm system and topped it off with a few veterans. Their roster looks to be a good mixture of older guys and top prospects ready to take over the majors. The choice of veterans might be a problem though, some because they only have a few years left before retirement, some just don’t have it anymore, some never have had much and some just aren’t the right fit. Here’s a breakdown of how the Braves tackled the off season.

Off-Season Review

The Braves clearly weren’t going after any big name free agents, but they needed to fill up the patchy spots in their young team, and unfortunately, some of that had to be done by signing veteran free agents. They did as much as they could via trade, but got desperate at times.

They started by quickly resigning their catcher, A.J. Pierzynski. This was mandatory as they didn’t have many other options. Then they hit the trade market.

They started by swapping shortstops with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Basically, they traded Andrelton Simmons to the Angels for Erick Aybar. But the full move is a lot more complicated. They additionally traded a prospect of theirs, Jose Briceno, and got Aybar tied to prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis plus cash.

Just one week later, they sold centerfielder Cameron Maybin to the Tigers for relievers Ian Krol and Gabe Speier. They signed some more free agents as the non-tender deadline approached.

Starter Bud Norris, reliever Jim Johnson, and after the deadline, David Holmberg, Gordon Beckham and Emilio Bonifacio were signed. A couple days later, they got Jose Ramirez from Seattle for a PTBNL and cash. The next week they got D-Backs No. 1 prospect Dansby Swanson with outfielder Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier.

The next day they traded Christian Bethancourt to the Padres for Casey Kelly and a prospect. On December 16, they signed Tyler Flowers to replace Bethancourt as backup catcher. On January 7th they brought in Alexi Ogando, Kyle Kendrick, Ryan Kelly, Alex Torres, Jhoulys Chacin and Ozzie Albies to minor league deals and spring training invites. The next day they signed infielder Kelly Johnson to a major league deal.

Carlos Torres and Jeff Francouer also got later minors deals and invitations towards the end of the off season.

The Braves spent the late off season on a bunch of free agent veterans, most on minors deals, but the trades they made early in the off season will really pay off.

Spring Training Storylines

How will the new rotation be?

The new rotation won’t be great, but if things go right, it can go uphill from last year. Mike Foltynewicz and Matt Wisler need to have good seasons and start emerging into the higher rotation positions they have been put into. Bud Norris and Kyle Kendrick need to have a big bounce back year, unless David Holmberg or Williams Perez can handle a rotation spot. The rotation doing well really depends on the older players looking like they did back when they were younger.

Will the veterans pay off?

Depends on the veteran. Really, this is just going to have to be a prediction. I think Alexi Ogando and Carlos Torres have a lot of potential to take good major league relief roles this season. I personally believe in Emilio Bonifacio fitting in nicely. I think Bud Norris can kick some serious butt again. For vets they already had at the trade deadline, I think Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher are underrated and could be in starting positions.

The Braves have some veterans with a lot of potential, but some like Gordon Beckham, Kyle Kendrick and Alex Torres have never had anything that impressed me and need to prove to me that they can fit well into their positions. Otherwise, I have them spending some time in the minors. But they have a good chunk of vets that could boost the team.

The only issue is, when the prospects are ready to hit the majors, will they be better? We won’t know unless they sit quality vets, which could be an issue. We could never know.

When can we expect the prospects in the majors?

Guys like Dansby Swanson and Sean Newcomb could make their debuts by June, especially if the veterans don’t pay off. But in the positions where the Braves have good and developed, but young players, the prospects in those spots might get some more insurance and may not appear till September.

Who are some key non-roster invitees?

Personally, I think this is a similar question to the last one. My list includes relievers Alexi Ogando and Carlos Torres along with some other pitchers young and old, catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who has seen Braves major league time, young infield prospects Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies, and outfielder Jeff Francouer. There are many more, but these guys highlight my list.

Which trades did they win and which one will pay off most?

Some trades they won, others they didn’t. They clearly won the one with the D-Backs where they acquired Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte, despite giving up Shelby Miller.

The one with the Tigers was questionable, Gabe Speier was later traded again, so it was basically Maybin for Krol, which the Tigers clearly win.

The Jose Ramirez trade wasn’t necessary, even though they barely gave up anything, and the shortstop swap was a win because of the additional acquisition of Sean Newcomb. The Christian Bethancourt trade was a win, cause Bethancourt didn’t develop as expected and they got some pitching insurance in their farm system.

The best trade for the Braves was the D-Backs one, it helps both their farm system and their major league roster.

So, I think that’s about all for what to watch for in spring training now for my roster and record projection.

Atlanta Braves Projected Roster

Rotation Bullpen

Julio Teheran Jason Grilli (CL)

Bud Norris Williams Perez

Mike Foltynewicz Jim Johnson

Matt Wisler Ian Krol

Kyle Kendrick Jhoulys Chacin

Alexi Ogando

Carlos Torres

Lineup Bench

C: A.J. Pierzynski Tyler Flowers

1B: Freddie Freeman Jace Peterson

2B: Gordon Beckham Ender Inciarte

SS: Erick Aybar Emilio Bonifacio

3B: Kelly Johnson Jeff Francouer

LF: Nick Swisher

CF: Michael Bourn

RF: Nick Markakis

Projected Record: 66-96

So that’s all for today. Catch my Orioles scouting report later today!

Scouting Report: Arizona Diamondbacks

March 4, 2016March 4, 2016 Andrew Roberts MLB, Picks & Previews, Uncategorized A.J. Pollock, Arizona, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta, Atlanta Braves, Braves, Brewers, Chris Owings, D-Backs, David Peralta, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Jake Lamb, Jean Segura, Kansas City, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Patrick Corbin, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Royals, Shelby Miller, Tyler Clippard, Yasmany Tomas, Zack Greinke

chris-owings

Welcome to my new scouting report series. Before spring training ends, I hope to cover every team. We start with one of the most active teams of the off season, the Arizona Diamondbacks. They went in to free agency as a mediocre team that lacked a rotation and veterans in the lineup. But the D-Backs have some of the best sleepers in the league, an some young stars to happen. What are the D-Backs looking like?
Off-Season Review

The Diamondbacks started the off season very quiet. It looked like their only targets were veteran infielders like Howie Kendrick, and some insurance in the rotation. Besides trading away Jeremy Hellickson to the Phillies for prospects, their November was very quiet.

But as December began, teams really started to negotiate for the top players in free agency, starting with some major aces. The Red Sox made the first major move, they signed David Price to a seven year, 217 million dollar deal. But surprisingly, not the Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals or Nats but the D-Backs were first to follow, signing Dodgers ace Zack Greinke to a six year, 206 million dollar contract. Greinke had a breakout in 2015 after eleven subpar seasons between Kansas City, Milwaukee and Los Angeles. He lost in the Cy Young race, but hopes to continue his dominance in 2016.

They shortly after traded Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair and Ender Inciarte for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier.

Their rotation was now among the best to match their sleep lineup that boosted them in 2015.

Until February, they were very quiet. More Kendrick rumors were in the air, but they ended up trading Aaron Hill, Chase Anderson, Isan Diaz and cash for shortstop Jean Segura and Tyler Wagner.
So that problem was solved, but A.J. Schugel was claimed off waivers by the Pirates, so they signed closer Tyler Clippard, so current closer Brad Ziegler could take his place in a set up role.

The D-Backs close the off season looking better than ever on paper, but their lineup has development questions. Spring training will show a lot about this team’s faith.

Hot Stove/Free Agency Grade: B+
Spring Training Questions

Will the lineup live up to its name?

This is a tough one to answer. Besides Goldy, Yasmany Tomas and A.J. Pollock. David Peralta also is alright, and Chris Owings, Jean Segura and Jake Lamb are still developing. Owings needs to be a better general hitter, Segura didn’t develop very well when he had the chance, and Lamb is good in the field, but needs to improve his bat. It could go either way.

Who are some key non-roster players?

There are a ton of pitchers that could crash the roster like former Reds reliever Sam LeCure, Wesley Wright, Braden Shipley, Matt Stites, Will Locante and Adam Loewen. Former Giants infielder Joaquin Arias and outfielder Jason Bourgeois could make some bench spots.

Is the rotation fulfilled enough?

I think the rotation is just fine. Greinke and Shelby Miller had amazing 2015 seasons and hope to continue, Patrick Corbin has looked fine in his TJ recovery, and the rest of the rotation is filled with young stars Rubby De La Rosa and Robbie Ray. Archie Bradley or Josh Collmenter, maybe even Zack Godley and Daniel Hudson could be spot starters. So it looks like the D-Backs are looking good and their moves paid off, even with the loss of Jeremy Hellickson and Chase Anderson.
Who is the biggest sleeper in the lineup?

I don’t think that the biggest D-Backs sleeper is any of the young infielders. Outfielder David Peralta is among the best, and the veteran hasn’t gotten much attention in the MLB. On the D-Backs staff, he is well known in the lineup, but only Diamondbacks diehards or MLB analysts would call him an MVP contender in the NL. Although this is only his third year, he has really gotten his name out recently.

D-Backs Projected Roster

Rotation Bullpen
Zack Greinke. Archie Bradley
Shelby Miller. Enrique Burgos
Patrick Corbin. Josh Collmenter
Rubby De La Rosa Tyler Clippard
Robbie Ray Evan Marshall
Zack Godley
Brad Ziegler

Lineup Bench
C: Welington Castillo Phil Gosselin
1B: Paul Goldschmidt Nick Ahmed
2B: Chris Owings Oscar Hernandez
SS: Jean Segura Tuffy Gosewisch
3B: Jake Lamb Joaquin Arias
LF: Yasmany Tomas
CF: A.J. Pollock.
RF: David Peralta

Projected Record: 88-74
That’s all for today everyone. See the Braves new look in the next post in this series.

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